Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The absolute price of pure benzene and styrene is oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to the contraction of EB profit. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, which stimulates the return of zombie capacity. The restart progress of key plants after the Spring Festival has a significant impact on the post - festival balance sheet. The situation of pure benzene will gradually improve after the second quarter, and it is difficult for China's pure benzene imports to increase in 2026. Recently, focus on the contraction of EB profit and the opportunity of PX - EB [3][68]. - The EB processing fee has reached a phased peak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - term profit contraction [3][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Pure Benzene Domestic Supply**: In December, 110,000 tons of pure benzene plants were under maintenance, and the maintenance volume in January remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Major plants with large - scale maintenance include Sinochem Quanzhou, LIDONG, and Zhejiang Petrochemical. Some Shandong local refineries will increase their production loads after solving the quota problem to make up for part of the production loss. In January, attention should be paid to the increase in pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang plant [2][67]. - **Pure Benzene Import Supply**: Although the overseas inventory pressure is still high, the overall import volume has decreased. The average monthly import volume of pure benzene from January to March 2026 is about 430,000 tons. The US - South Korea tariff still exists, but the US - Asia aromatics logistics may continue after the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact of 30,000 - 40,000 tons of pure benzene per month [2][67]. Demand - **Styrene**: In December, 85,000 tons of styrene plants were under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January. After December, the plant operation gradually resumed, and attention should be paid to the increase in production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical plant. The demand for the three downstream products of styrene (3S) exceeded expectations. After the market rose rapidly last week, downstream factories entered the restocking cycle [3][68]. - **Caprolactam**: Negative feedback in CPL has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. It is estimated that 40,000 tons of plants will be under maintenance in December and 60,000 tons in January, mainly in Fujian Yongrong, Tianchen, Hualu Hengsheng, Xuyang Cangzhou, etc. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of plants [3][68]. - **Phenol**: The operation rate is gradually rising. In December, 30,000 tons of plants were under maintenance, and 10,000 tons in January. The commissioning of the new Shandong Ruilin plant may be postponed [3][68]. - **Aniline**: In December, 70,000 tons of aniline plants were under maintenance, mainly including Ningbo Wanhua, Shanghai Covestro, and Chongqing Basf, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation rate in January may be lower than expected [3][68]. Valuation - **Absolute Price Valuation**: Based on the crude oil price of $70 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3][68]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The market will mainly oscillate before the Spring Festival [3][68]. - **Cross - Variety Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of bottom - fishing PX - EB, that is, buy BZ and short EB [3][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EB2602 contract is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with technical support around 6390 and resistance around 6690. The domestic styrene supply - demand is shifting towards a looser balance, and the pace of visible inventory depletion is expected to slow down. The non - integrated process losses are deepening, while the integrated process profitability is expanding. The overall demand is difficult to see significant growth [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 6509 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the trading volume is 445526 lots, up 59642 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders are 351589 lots, down 18663 lots; the net long positions are - 24911 lots, down 9610 lots. The short positions of the top 20 holders are 376500 lots, down 9053 lots. The contract price for January is 6467 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The open interest is 314602 lots, down 228 lots, and the total warehouse receipt quantity is 600 lots, up 500 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6642 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The FOB South Korea middle price is 812.5 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars; the CFR China middle price is 822.5 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars. The mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions are 6325 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 6720 yuan/ton (up 65 yuan), 6525 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6550 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle price of ethylene is 746 dollars/ton (unchanged), the CFR Southeast Asia middle price is 726 dollars/ton (unchanged), the CIF Northwest Europe middle price is 661.5 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars, and the FD US Gulf price is 408 dollars/ton, up 19.5 dollars. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB), and the South China, East China, and North China markets are 661.17 dollars/ton (unchanged), 739 dollars/ton (unchanged), 5300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5325 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), and 5150 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The US Gulf FOB price is 279 cents/gallon (unchanged) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate is 69.13%, up 0.84 percentage points. The national inventory is 170960 tons, down 7550 tons. The total inventory at the main ports in East China is 13.93 million tons, up 0.46 million tons; the trade inventory is 8.46 million tons, up 0.22 million tons. The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 51.81% (down 1.96 percentage points), 70.1% (down 0.43 percentage points), 54.5% (down 3.8 percentage points), 36% (unchanged), and 79.23% (down 0.94 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - From December 12th to 18th, the overall output of Chinese styrene factories was 346800 tons, up 2.38% from the previous period, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, up 1.02% month - on - month. The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS in the styrene downstream was 261800 tons, down 3.89% month - on - month. As of December 18th, the styrene factory inventory was 171000 tons, down 4.23% from the previous week. As of December 22nd, the styrene inventory at the East China ports was 139300 tons, up 3.41% from the previous week; the South China port inventory was 11000 tons, down 26.67% from the previous week. As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2]

Supply and Demand - As of December 4, the overall production of styrene was 342,400 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons, with an operating rate of 68.85%, up by 1.56% [2] - As of December 8, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 146,800 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons from the previous period; the commodity inventory was 87,800 tons, down by 8,600 tons [2] - The capacity utilization rates for downstream products as of December 4 were 56.36% for EPS (up by 1.61%), 59.0% for PS (up by 1.4%), and 68.3% for ABS (down by 2.9%) [2] Profitability - As of December 10, the profit for non-integrated styrene units was approximately 64 yuan per ton [2] Market Outlook - There is an expectation of increased planned and unplanned maintenance for styrene units, but overall operating rates may slightly increase as profits continue to recover [3] - Demand support is limited due to some downstream operations being affected by cold weather, combined with high inventory and declining profits [3] - The overall supply-demand structure for styrene is tight, but due to weak cost support and seasonal demand decline, the upward potential for styrene prices is limited [3] - Short-term market dynamics are characterized by a clear tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with the market likely influenced by oil prices and macroeconomic disturbances [3]

Supply and Demand - As of November 20, the overall production of styrene was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons, with an operating rate of 68.95%, down by 0.3% [3] - As of November 24, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 164,200 tons, an increase of 15,900 tons compared to the previous period; the commodity inventory was 94,200 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons [3] - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rates for downstream products were 56.27% for EPS (up 4.64%), 55.90% for PS (up 0.5%), and 72.4% for ABS (up 0.6%) [3] Profitability - As of November 26, the profit for non-integrated styrene units was approximately 69 yuan per ton [2] Market Outlook - With the recovery of styrene profits, some factories are increasing their load, but there are also some units undergoing maintenance, leading to limited overall supply [4] - Some downstream sectors are facing pressure from high finished product inventories and compressed profits, indicating limited demand support [4] - Although short-term expectations for styrene supply and demand have improved, the rebound potential is constrained by weakened demand expectations and weak cost support, with limited overall driving force [4] - Future attention will be on changes in styrene units and actual export transaction conditions, with short-term EB01 expected to experience fluctuations [4]

Group 1: Report Core Views - Domestic styrene profit is low and the domestic styrene operating rate decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the domestic styrene operating rate was 74.98%, a decrease of 4.76 pct compared to the previous period and an increase of 5.6 pct year - on - year. The weekly output was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 22,500 tons from the previous period [2]. - Overseas, there are new styrene device overhauls in Malaysia and Belgium. As of September 15, 2025, the overseas styrene operating rate was 81.8%, a decrease of 1.9 pct compared to the previous period and a decrease of 0.1 pct year - on - year, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years [2]. - The global styrene operating rate is at a neutral level. As of September 15, 2025, the global styrene operating rate was 78.5%, a decrease of 3.3 pct compared to the previous period and an increase of 2.33 pct year - on - year [2]. Group 2: Specific Data Summaries - Domestic styrene: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate was 74.98%, weekly output was 354,000 tons. As of September 15, the non - integrated profit was - 307 yuan/ton [2]. - Overseas styrene: As of September 15, 2025, the operating rate was 81.8%. The US INEOS 500,000 - ton styrene overhaul plan was postponed to January 2026, a 240,000 - ton styrene device in Malaysia started a 20 - day overhaul at the end of August, and a 440,000 - ton styrene device in Belgium started a one - month overhaul in mid - September [2]. - Global styrene: As of September 15, 2025, the operating rate was 78.5% [2].