Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term pure benzene market will mainly fluctuate, with weak current situation and strong expectations, and will remain within the range of 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton. The overseas gasoline blending logic hyped in the early stage has gradually subsided. The pure benzene market in December has obvious inventory swelling pressure, while the market has strong expectations of supply contraction after January 2026. The import expectation has large differences in the market. The demand for pure benzene downstream is weak in December and may improve after January. The overall situation of benzene - ethylene downstream 3S is high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit. The benzene - ethylene market will maintain a range - bound pattern [3][89] - The reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5500 yuan/ton based on the crude oil price of 60 US dollars. The EB processing fee will expand in the short term [3][89] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Pure benzene domestic production**: In December, 110,000 tons of production was under maintenance, and it is expected to remain at 110,000 tons in January (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Some Shandong local refineries will increase their production capacity after solving the quota problem. Pay attention to the new production increment of BASF Zhanjiang in January [3][89] - **Pure benzene imports**: The external market pressure is still high, and the selling pressure of South Korean pure benzene from November to December is large, with high imports. There are large differences in the import volume in January, which is expected to remain at around 4.5 million tons, and the imports after February need further evaluation [3][89] Demand - **Styrene**: In December, 85,000 tons of production was under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January. The plant operation will gradually resume after December. Pay attention to the production increment brought by the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's plant [3][89] - **Caprolactam**: CPL negative feedback has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their load. It is expected that 40,000 tons of production will be under maintenance in December and 60,000 tons in January. Focus on the commissioning of Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the plant [3][89] - **Phenol**: The operation is gradually picking up. 30,000 tons of production was under maintenance in December and 10,000 tons in January. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new plant may be postponed [3][89] - **Aniline**: 70,000 tons of production was under maintenance in December, with a loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [3][89] - **Styrene downstream 3S hard plastics**: The terminal home appliance market is entering the end - of - year procurement season, and the demand has slightly improved, but 3S still faces the problem of high inventory [3][89] Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Mainly range - bound trading [3][89] - **Inter - period trading**: No trading strategy for now [3][89] - **Inter - commodity trading**: Continue to hold the PX - BZ position [3][89]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - EB2509 fell 0.84% to close at 7,238 yuan/ton. On the supply side, a new Shandong plant increased output this week, and some plants adjusted their loads. Styrene production increased 2.76% to 369,100 tons, and capacity utilization rose 0.45% to 78.18%. On the demand side, the operating rates of styrene downstream industries varied last week, and the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS decreased 3.17% to 238,100 tons. In terms of inventory, styrene factory inventory decreased 1.29% to 208,700 tons, East China port inventory decreased 6.42% to 148,800 tons, and South China port inventory increased 16.13% to 18,000 tons. New capacity additions intensify industry competition. Integrated plant profitability is average, and non - integrated plant losses are expected to deepen. Recently, EPS plants on centralized maintenance are about to restart, and some PS and ABS plants plan to increase production, so short - term demand is expected to rise. However, poor downstream demand and expected finished - product inventory accumulation may restrain styrene demand growth [2]. - Styrene spot supply is ample, and total inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. With the decline in crude oil costs, styrene prices are under pressure. Technically, EB2509 should focus on the support around 7,200 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,238 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; trading volume was 193,870, up 46,999; the long position of the top 20 holders was 312,236 hands, down 2,632; the 10 - month contract closing price was 7,259 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract was 195,195 hands, down 6,330; the net long position of the top 20 holders was - 19,983 hands, down 2,756; the short position of the top 20 holders was 332,219 hands, up 124; and the total warehouse receipt quantity was 737 hands, up 188 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,622 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the FOB South Korea middle price was 894 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; the CFR China middle price was 904 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; the mainstream price in Northeast China was 7,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in South China was 7,500 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the mainstream price in North China was 7,365 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; and the mainstream price in East China was 7,345 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle price of ethylene was 826 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle price was 831 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe middle price was 859.5 dollars/ton, down 14.5 dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 457 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; the FOB US Gulf spot price of pure benzene was 269 cents/gallon, down 1 cent; the CIF Taiwan spot price of pure benzene was 744.81 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB Rotterdam spot price of pure benzene was 720 dollars/ton, unchanged; the South China market price of pure benzene was 6,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the East China market price was 6,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the North China market price was 6,200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 77.73%, down 1.19 percentage points; national styrene inventory was 211,455 tons, down 5,884 tons; the total inventory at East China main ports was 148,800 tons, down 10,200 tons; and the trade inventory at East China main ports was 69,500 tons, up 3,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 43.67%, down 10.58 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 71.1%, up 5.2 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 55%, up 1.7 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR was 30%, up 1 percentage point; and the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 73.35%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, China's total styrene factory output was 369,100 tons, up 2.76% from the previous period; the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.18%, up 0.45% month - on - month [2]. - From August 1st to 7th, the consumption of China's main styrene downstream industries (EPS, PS, ABS) was 238,100 tons, down 3.17% from the previous week [2]. - As of August 14th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 208,700 tons, down 1.29% month - on - month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2509 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,397 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 1.13% month-on-month to 358,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.91% month-on-month to 78.3%. On the demand side, last week's downstream operating rates varied; the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 1.45% month-on-month to 237,500 tons. In terms of inventory, styrene factory inventory decreased by 0.66% month-on-month to 208,300 tons, East China port inventory increased by 8.81% month-on-month to 150,700 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 2.04% month-on-month to 19,200 tons. Currently, domestic styrene is still in a high-production state. This week, the impact of restarted plants will expand, and it is expected that production and capacity utilization will increase slightly. It is the off-season for terminal demand, and downstream demand is mainly for essential needs. Benefiting from the decline in styrene prices, the profits of downstream "Three S" products have recovered; however, due to relatively weak demand, the high inventory of "Three S" finished products is difficult to reduce. The total styrene inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. In terms of cost, the US tariffs on the EU are about to be implemented, and Trump said that trade agreements have been reached with Japan and the Philippines. International oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; the supply and demand of pure benzene are expected to remain loose, providing limited support. Pay attention to the support around 7,310 yuan/ton and the resistance around 7,570 yuan/ton on the daily K-line of EB2509 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,397 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the trading volume was 348,808 lots, down 52,691 lots; the open interest was 291,849 lots, up 7,196 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 342,487 lots, down 14,318 lots; the short positions were 368,314 lots, down 10,408 lots; the net long positions were -25,827 lots, down 3,910 lots. The closing price of the October contract was 7,367 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan. The spot price of styrene was 7,754 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 914 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 924 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars. The warehouse receipt quantity was 600 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of styrene in the Northeast region was 7,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the South China region, it was 7,670 yuan/ton; in the North China region, it was 7,450 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; in the East China region, it was 7,485 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 816 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 737.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 283 cents/gallon, down 1 cent; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 767 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the East China market, it was 6,020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in the North China market, it was 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industrial Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.3%, down 0.91 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 208,319 tons, down 1,376 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 150,700 tons, up 12,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 56,200 tons, up 11,200 tons. The operating rate of EPS was 53.18%, up 2.12 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 65.9%, up 0.9 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 50.6%, down 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR was 28%, down 1 percentage point; the operating rate of styrene-butadiene rubber was 73.08%, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - From July 11th to 17th, the total production of Chinese styrene factories was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 1.13%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.91%. From July 11th to 17th, the consumption of China's main styrene downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 237,500 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week, a month-on-month increase of 1.45%. As of July 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 208,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous cycle, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% [2]