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纯苯短期易跌难涨
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-03 23:23
Core Viewpoint - The domestic pure benzene market is experiencing a downward trend due to increased production, rising import pressures, and weakened downstream demand, leading to expectations of continued price declines in the future [1][4]. Group 1: Import Dynamics - The import volume of pure benzene in China has significantly increased, with a 56.19% year-on-year rise in the first half of 2025, totaling 2.7306 million tons [2]. - South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China surged by 62,000 tons, marking a 79% increase, while exports to the U.S. plummeted by 90% [2]. - It is projected that China's total pure benzene imports for the year will exceed 5 million tons, driven primarily by imports from South Korea [2]. Group 2: Domestic Supply Trends - Domestic pure benzene production has seen a slight increase, with a production capacity utilization rate of 79.18% and a production volume of 451,900 tons, reflecting a 0.24% increase [3]. - Despite a decrease in production profits to 671 yuan per ton, the overall profitability of the industry remains high, allowing for continued production plans [3]. - The absence of new large-scale maintenance in September and the potential commissioning of new facilities suggest ongoing supply pressure in the domestic market [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - Weak terminal demand has led to continued losses in the main downstream products of pure benzene, including styrene and phenol, with some products transitioning from profit to loss [4]. - The average loss margin for the five main downstream products has narrowed, but overall, the demand for pure benzene is expected to decline further [4]. - The anticipated maintenance of styrene facilities is likely to negatively impact pure benzene consumption, contributing to increased inventory pressure [4].