Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (pure benzene) is "oscillating bearish" [1] Report's Core View - The Middle - East geopolitical situation has eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand side's operating rates have improved. In the short - term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5460 - 5750 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the port arrival volume and future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices. It is recommended to close out long positions at a profit [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the main futures contract BZ2603 dropped by 57 yuan to 5620 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5535 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan month - on - month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5462 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan month - on - month). In terms of positions, the number of long positions increased by 209 to 20,700, and the number of short positions increased by 130 to 26,400 [1] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%. According to customs statistics, in November 2025, China's monthly pure benzene import volume was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons, the monthly import value was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 324,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89%; compared with the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 149,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the incompletely - counted arrival volume was about 36,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was about 30,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%; the operating rate of phenol was 89%, a month - on - month increase of 4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 77.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%; the operating rate of aniline was 73.2%, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 65.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. Caprolactam plants have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there is an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam has been put into production [1] - International Oil Prices: The situation in Iran has shown signs of temporary easing, and the market expects the crude oil supply from Venezuela to increase in the future, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract dropped by 2.83 US dollars/barrel to 59.19 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract dropped by 2.76 US dollars/barrel to 63.76 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15%. The price of China's INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose by 2.7 to 452.4 yuan/barrel, and then dropped by 10.6 to 441.8 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The Middle - East geopolitical situation has eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand side's operating rates have improved. In the short - term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5460 - 5750 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the port arrival volume and future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices [1] Trading Strategy - Close out long positions at a profit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The weekly market analysis report from Ruida Futures Research Institute indicates a strong fluctuation in the price of pure benzene, with a slight increase in domestic supply and a general recovery in demand for downstream products [1][2]. Supply Analysis - The operating rate of domestic petroleum benzene facilities is reported at 74.89%, a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - The operating rate for hydrogenated benzene has increased by 2.94 percentage points to 59.83%, contributing to a narrow rise in overall domestic pure benzene production [1]. Demand Analysis - There is a general recovery in demand, with downstream product operating rates showing increases. The operating rate for styrene has risen by 1.57 percentage points to 70.7%, while the operating rate for caprolactam has increased by 4.84 percentage points to 74.04% [1]. - The operating rates for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid have also seen increases of 3.22, 1.63, and 4 percentage points respectively. The weighted operating rate for pure benzene's downstream products has risen by 2.59 percentage points to 71.07% [1]. Inventory and Profit Analysis - Due to delayed imports arriving at ports, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports has increased by 5% to a total of 273,000 tons, which is relatively high for this time of year [1]. - The production profit for petroleum benzene has recovered by 38 yuan/ton, reaching 201 yuan/ton [1]. Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates a slight increase in domestic supply next week, with a 210,000-ton annual capacity petroleum benzene facility in Northeast China planning to restart, along with hydrogenated benzene facilities in Northwest and Southwest China [2]. - Downstream demand is expected to remain stable for styrene, while the caprolactam industry continues its "production reduction to maintain prices" strategy, with some facilities planning to resume operations [2]. - Operating rates for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are projected to increase [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain loose as the narrowing speed of the spot supply - demand gap is slow. The BZ2603 contract is expected to show an oscillating trend in the short - term, with technical support around 5360 and resistance around 5580 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures contract was 5425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; the settlement price was 5452 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan. The trading volume was 13,265 lots, an increase of 1,236 lots; the open interest was 23,659 lots, an increase of 842 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5325 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North China market, it was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northeast region, it was 5156 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan. The mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu was 5325 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanxi, it was 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 659 dollars/ton, an increase of 3 dollars; the CFR mid - price in China was 666 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.07 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 62.79 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.49 dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 539.88 dollars/ton, an increase of 9 dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 74.94%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.66 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 26 million tons, unchanged. The production cost of pure benzene was 5161.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.2 yuan; the production profit was 163 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 69.13%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 69.2%, a decrease of 5.37 percentage points; of phenol was 74.93%, a decrease of 4.54 percentage points; of aniline was 61.35%, a decrease of 14.59 percentage points; of adipic acid was 59.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.17% to 74.94%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 3.05% to 55.99%, with a slight increase in domestic pure benzene output. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 2.82% to 68.49%. As of December 22nd, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 27.3 million tons, a 5% increase from last week. The profit of petroleum benzene increased by 55 yuan/ton to 163 yuan/ton [2] 3.7 Outlook - This week, petroleum benzene plants will mainly operate stably, and some hydrogenated benzene plants will increase their loads, with a projected slight increase in domestic pure benzene output. The restart of a large styrene plant is postponed, with limited growth in the operating rate. The caprolactam industry will continue to cut production to maintain prices, with a projected further reduction in the plant load. The plant loads of aniline and adipic acid are expected to increase slightly, but the impact is relatively limited [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term pure benzene market will mainly fluctuate, with weak current situation and strong expectations, and will remain within the range of 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton. The overseas gasoline blending logic hyped in the early stage has gradually subsided. The pure benzene market in December has obvious inventory swelling pressure, while the market has strong expectations of supply contraction after January 2026. The import expectation has large differences in the market. The demand for pure benzene downstream is weak in December and may improve after January. The overall situation of benzene - ethylene downstream 3S is high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit. The benzene - ethylene market will maintain a range - bound pattern [3][89] - The reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5500 yuan/ton based on the crude oil price of 60 US dollars. The EB processing fee will expand in the short term [3][89] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Pure benzene domestic production**: In December, 110,000 tons of production was under maintenance, and it is expected to remain at 110,000 tons in January (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Some Shandong local refineries will increase their production capacity after solving the quota problem. Pay attention to the new production increment of BASF Zhanjiang in January [3][89] - **Pure benzene imports**: The external market pressure is still high, and the selling pressure of South Korean pure benzene from November to December is large, with high imports. There are large differences in the import volume in January, which is expected to remain at around 4.5 million tons, and the imports after February need further evaluation [3][89] Demand - **Styrene**: In December, 85,000 tons of production was under maintenance, and 65,000 tons in January. The plant operation will gradually resume after December. Pay attention to the production increment brought by the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's plant [3][89] - **Caprolactam**: CPL negative feedback has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their load. It is expected that 40,000 tons of production will be under maintenance in December and 60,000 tons in January. Focus on the commissioning of Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the plant [3][89] - **Phenol**: The operation is gradually picking up. 30,000 tons of production was under maintenance in December and 10,000 tons in January. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new plant may be postponed [3][89] - **Aniline**: 70,000 tons of production was under maintenance in December, with a loss of 77,000 tons. Some plants extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [3][89] - **Styrene downstream 3S hard plastics**: The terminal home appliance market is entering the end - of - year procurement season, and the demand has slightly improved, but 3S still faces the problem of high inventory [3][89] Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Mainly range - bound trading [3][89] - **Inter - period trading**: No trading strategy for now [3][89] - **Inter - commodity trading**: Continue to hold the PX - BZ position [3][89]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pure benzene market is experiencing a downward trend due to increased production, rising import pressures, and weakened downstream demand, leading to expectations of continued price declines in the future [1][4]. Group 1: Import Dynamics - The import volume of pure benzene in China has significantly increased, with a 56.19% year-on-year rise in the first half of 2025, totaling 2.7306 million tons [2]. - South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China surged by 62,000 tons, marking a 79% increase, while exports to the U.S. plummeted by 90% [2]. - It is projected that China's total pure benzene imports for the year will exceed 5 million tons, driven primarily by imports from South Korea [2]. Group 2: Domestic Supply Trends - Domestic pure benzene production has seen a slight increase, with a production capacity utilization rate of 79.18% and a production volume of 451,900 tons, reflecting a 0.24% increase [3]. - Despite a decrease in production profits to 671 yuan per ton, the overall profitability of the industry remains high, allowing for continued production plans [3]. - The absence of new large-scale maintenance in September and the potential commissioning of new facilities suggest ongoing supply pressure in the domestic market [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - Weak terminal demand has led to continued losses in the main downstream products of pure benzene, including styrene and phenol, with some products transitioning from profit to loss [4]. - The average loss margin for the five main downstream products has narrowed, but overall, the demand for pure benzene is expected to decline further [4]. - The anticipated maintenance of styrene facilities is likely to negatively impact pure benzene consumption, contributing to increased inventory pressure [4].