Core Viewpoint - The styrene market is experiencing upward pressure due to significant inventory reduction and supply disruptions, despite weak demand indicators in downstream sectors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Styrene futures prices have shown strength, moving above the 7000-7100 yuan/ton range, driven by a notable decrease in port inventories [1]. - Recent maintenance schedules have led to unexpected supply losses, with major facilities like Guangdong Petrochemical and New Puxian Chemical undergoing significant repairs, resulting in a drop in industry operating rates to 75% [3]. - The autumn maintenance scale is higher than expected, which has contributed to the recent strength in styrene futures prices. However, supply pressures are anticipated to return as most maintenance operations are expected to resume production by October [3]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - The production growth rates for major white goods such as air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators have significantly lagged behind last year's figures, indicating weak demand in the downstream market [4]. - Despite the weak demand, there is still policy support that may prevent a significant decline in styrene prices, with recent inventory reductions providing some price support [4]. - As of mid-September, styrene inventories at major ports in East China have decreased to 159,000 tons, down nearly 40,000 tons over two weeks, indicating a potential for further inventory reduction this month [4]. Group 3: Cost and Market Sentiment - Short-term cost stabilization is observed, with the chemical sector benefiting from a reduction in internal competition and potential consumption-boosting policies [2]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation range, with a low point unlikely to fall below $58 per barrel, which may influence the cost structure of styrene production [2]. - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by macroeconomic factors and the balance between weak current realities and strong expectations, which will be crucial for styrene price movements in the future [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the styrene price has shown a downward trend, with a significant drop from above 7400 yuan/ton to around 7000 yuan/ton, driven by increased short positions and weak fundamentals in the industry [1] - The styrene production capacity has improved due to higher profit margins from raw material benzene, with the styrene-benzene price spread averaging 1200 yuan/ton, leading to an overall production load above 78%, which is 10 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - New production capacities are being introduced, with significant installations expected in the fourth quarter, which may further increase supply pressure on styrene prices [2] Group 2 - Despite the traditional peak season, the demand for styrene is expected to grow only moderately, with downstream production rates for ABS, PS, and EPS showing slight increases, but overall demand remains under pressure [3] - High inventory levels at ports, reaching 19.65 million tons, are exerting downward pressure on styrene prices and valuations, exceeding historical levels and the highest point of the year [3] - The cost support from crude oil is insufficient, with expectations of weak performance in the fourth quarter, and the supply-demand balance for benzene remains weak, limiting upward price movements for styrene [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2509 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,397 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 1.13% month-on-month to 358,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.91% month-on-month to 78.3%. On the demand side, last week's downstream operating rates varied; the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 1.45% month-on-month to 237,500 tons. In terms of inventory, styrene factory inventory decreased by 0.66% month-on-month to 208,300 tons, East China port inventory increased by 8.81% month-on-month to 150,700 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 2.04% month-on-month to 19,200 tons. Currently, domestic styrene is still in a high-production state. This week, the impact of restarted plants will expand, and it is expected that production and capacity utilization will increase slightly. It is the off-season for terminal demand, and downstream demand is mainly for essential needs. Benefiting from the decline in styrene prices, the profits of downstream "Three S" products have recovered; however, due to relatively weak demand, the high inventory of "Three S" finished products is difficult to reduce. The total styrene inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. In terms of cost, the US tariffs on the EU are about to be implemented, and Trump said that trade agreements have been reached with Japan and the Philippines. International oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; the supply and demand of pure benzene are expected to remain loose, providing limited support. Pay attention to the support around 7,310 yuan/ton and the resistance around 7,570 yuan/ton on the daily K-line of EB2509 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,397 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the trading volume was 348,808 lots, down 52,691 lots; the open interest was 291,849 lots, up 7,196 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 342,487 lots, down 14,318 lots; the short positions were 368,314 lots, down 10,408 lots; the net long positions were -25,827 lots, down 3,910 lots. The closing price of the October contract was 7,367 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan. The spot price of styrene was 7,754 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 914 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 924 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars. The warehouse receipt quantity was 600 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of styrene in the Northeast region was 7,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the South China region, it was 7,670 yuan/ton; in the North China region, it was 7,450 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; in the East China region, it was 7,485 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 816 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 737.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 283 cents/gallon, down 1 cent; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 767 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the East China market, it was 6,020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in the North China market, it was 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industrial Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.3%, down 0.91 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 208,319 tons, down 1,376 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 150,700 tons, up 12,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 56,200 tons, up 11,200 tons. The operating rate of EPS was 53.18%, up 2.12 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 65.9%, up 0.9 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 50.6%, down 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR was 28%, down 1 percentage point; the operating rate of styrene-butadiene rubber was 73.08%, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - From July 11th to 17th, the total production of Chinese styrene factories was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 1.13%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.91%. From July 11th to 17th, the consumption of China's main styrene downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 237,500 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week, a month-on-month increase of 1.45%. As of July 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 208,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous cycle, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% [2]