1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting apple prices are the low high - quality fruit rate due to continuous rain delaying the harvest time and reducing the sales period, and the uncertainty of apple storage volume. The storage volume in Gansu is expected to be lower than last year, while Shaanxi's storage volume may be higher but with lower effective inventory, and Shandong will also have lower effective inventory [2]. - In the short - term trading logic, the market bets on the quality and low high - quality fruit rate of late Fuji apples, causing the futures price to rise. The recent increase of 11, 12, and 01 contracts is weaker than that of the far - month contracts because the logic that the later the contract, the fewer deliverable fruits, prevails [3]. - In the long - term trading logic, the market expects the price to decline after a high opening price. However, if the low high - quality fruit rate leads to low storage data and a shortage of high - quality fruits in the later sales period, the 05 contract may have no goods for delivery [4]. - The upward momentum of apple prices has increased recently, but the profitable seats have reduced their long positions, indicating a lack of confidence in further price increases [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The main reason for the recent rise in apple futures prices is the low high - quality fruit rate. Continuous rain has postponed the harvest time in the east and west regions, and the approaching frost has compressed the sales period [2]. - Affected by the quality decline, the storage volume in Gansu is expected to be lower than last year. Shaanxi's storage volume may be higher, but the effective inventory will be lower, and Shandong will also have lower effective inventory [2]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The upward momentum of apple prices has increased, but the profitable seats have reduced their long positions, with a net long position of only 1632 lots [7]. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: There is no basis strategy. The recommended spread strategy is to short the 01 - 05 spread [8][9]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of apples is predicted to be 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 26.6% (3 - year) [10]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when worried about low apple purchase prices due to a bumper harvest, enterprises can short apple futures (AP2601, sell, 25%, entry range 8900 - 9000) and sell call options (AP2601C, sell, 25%, entry range 200 - 300) to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when worried about high purchase prices due to low inventory and a shortage of high - quality fruits, enterprises can buy apple futures (AP2601, buy, 75%, entry range 8600 - 8700) and sell put options (AP2511P8600, buy, 75%, entry range 150 - 180) to lock in purchase costs and reduce costs [10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - In Gansu, there is no more apple supply for purchase. In Shandong, the supply has increased recently, about one week later than usual. The prices of different grades of apples are as follows: 80 above general goods are 2.4 - 2.8 yuan/jin, first - and second - grade semi - products are 2.8 - 3.4 yuan/jin, and first - and second - grade products are 3.2 - 3.6 yuan/jin. Shaanxi has a serious water - rot problem, and merchants have suspended purchases. In Liaoning, high - quality apples are attractive, with prices exceeding 4 yuan/jin [11]. - The opening prices of western late Fuji apples are 0.5 - 1 yuan/jin higher than last year [11]. - The number of apple trucks arriving at the three major markets in Guangdong has fluctuated significantly. After the Mid - Autumn Festival, the number has decreased. The sales of new late Fuji high - quality apples are okay, but there is pressure on daily digestion, and there is some inventory backlog in transit warehouses [13]. - The cold storage of new apples in Gansu is likely to be lower than last year. In Shandong, the effective inventory will be lower due to quality problems. In Shaanxi, the storage volume may be higher, but the effective inventory will be lower [13]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Information No information provided in the report. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Last week, the apple futures price rose, but the main contract fluctuated greatly, and the price increase was much smaller than that of the 05 contract. The total apple position is similar to that of last year and the year before. The profitable seats reduced their positions last week. Technically, the main contract of apple futures maintains an oscillating upward structure, and the short - term trend is still strong [19]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - **Apple Basis Structure**: The apple basis structure is very complex. The quality of apples varies each year, and the grading conditions in Shandong and the northwest are different. The futures delivery rules are constantly changing, and the number of deliverable fruits this year is unknown due to the low overall quality [21]. - **Apple Spread Structure**: The apple spread structure has typical large - volume fluctuations when the near - month contract approaches the delivery month, which is related to the number of deliverable fruits. According to seasonal rules, the 10 - contract trades the opening price, and the short - term supply is much lower than that of the 11 - and 12 - contracts. The 01 - contract is around the Spring Festival, with a relatively large delivery volume and tight delivery time. However, due to the low overall quality of apples this year, the pre - festival contract may be weak, and the post - festival high - quality apples may be in short supply and strengthen [21][22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Apple profits are mainly divided into planting profits and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. The storage profit for the 25/26 season is undetermined. Due to the large number of low - quality apples and a shortage of high - quality apples this year, storage is facing a huge test [24]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction - According to the previous bagging data, the 25/26 apple season is expected to have a slight increase in production, with a 2.35% increase to 3736.64 million tons. Shaanxi is expected to increase production by 7.57% to 878.84 million tons, Shandong to decrease by 9.89% to 782.37 million tons, Gansu to increase by 2.18% to 379.15 million tons, Henan to increase by 21.09% to 274.28 million tons, and Shanxi to increase by 28.39% to 352.19 million tons. However, considering only the bagging number cannot accurately infer the production, and not considering the quality cannot determine the price. Due to dry - hot wind in April 2025 and excessive rainfall since September, the final apple production may decrease compared to last year, and the quality may decline significantly [26][27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term long - position entry as the main strategy [2] Core Viewpoint - In the new - season apple market, the supply of mid - ripe Fuji is increasing. The color and redness of some Fuji apples in the western region are affected by rainfall and short sunshine, but high - quality apples maintain firm prices. Shandong's Hongjiangjun apples have relatively poor quality. In the old - crop market, remaining supplies in Shandong are concentrated in some townships. Some merchants continue to source stored Fuji due to high prices of early - ripe Fuji and poor color of Hongjiangjun, with relatively stable prices. The digestion speed in the sales area is stable, and merchants' profits are limited due to high early - ripe Fuji prices. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation for the Double Festival [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 957; the main contract position is 2378 hands, a decrease of 240; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 81079 hands, a decrease of 240 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag, above 80 first - class) is 3.7 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The wholesale price of apples is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 20.91 million tons, a decrease of 6.44; Shandong's apple storage capacity ratio is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; Shaanxi's apple storage capacity ratio is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 50000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 6328.4 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1997.6 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5; the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.44; the wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02; the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1; the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12 vehicles, an increase of 0.4; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16 vehicles, an increase of 1; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 25.56 vehicles, an increase of 1.96 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 21.28%, an increase of 0.65; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 21.29%, an increase of 0.66 [2] Industry News - Western early - ripe Fuji is gradually ending, with the remaining supply showing quality differentiation; picking - green Fuji is waiting to color. In Shandong, the trading of Hongjiangjun apples has poor quality, and the trading of stored Fuji has slightly slowed down. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the mainstream price of early - ripe Fuji above 70 is 3.8 - 4.1 yuan/jin, etc. [2] Viewpoint Summary - New - season apples: The supply of mid - ripe Fuji is increasing, with some showing average color due to weather; high - quality prices are firm. Shandong's Hongjiangjun has poor quality. Old - crop market: Remaining supplies in Shandong are concentrated, and some merchants continue to source stored Fuji. The sales area has stable digestion, and merchants' profits are limited. Attention should be paid to the Double Festival stocking [2] Prompt Attention - There is no news today [2]