Core Insights - The article highlights the successful harvest of 24,000 acres of honey oranges in Fenyi County, Jiangxi Province, driven by standardized production practices that enhance both yield and quality [1][3]. Group 1: Production and Yield - The honey orange planting base in Luozha Village has seen a high yield this year, with an average yield of approximately 3,000 to 4,000 pounds per acre, resulting in a total production of about 300,000 to 400,000 pounds [3]. - The county has focused on utilizing its climate and soil resources to promote honey oranges as a key agricultural product for rural revitalization, implementing standardized planting techniques to ensure product quality [3]. Group 2: Market and Sales - The honey oranges produced in Fenyi County are not only popular in the domestic market but have also reached international markets, with nearly 200,000 pounds of orders received for export to Southeast Asian countries [3]. - The use of organic fertilizers has contributed to the excellent taste of the honey oranges, which are primarily sold to eastern coastal cities [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The honey orange industry has become a significant source of income for local farmers, linking the entire supply chain from planting to harvesting and sales, thereby boosting employment and income in surrounding villages [3].

Core Viewpoint - Huang Junhui, founder of Honghui Fruits and Vegetables Co., Ltd., has transformed traditional agriculture into a modern industry through a comprehensive supply chain model, contributing to rural revitalization and the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages High-Quality Development Project" [1][2] Group 1: Company Development - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables started as a fruit and vegetable trading business in the early 1990s and evolved into a national key leading enterprise in agricultural industrialization [1] - The company established a full supply chain model covering "planting—purchasing—storage—processing—distribution" by 2004, integrating "company + base + farmers" [1] - In 2016, Honghui Fruits and Vegetables became the first stock listed in the fruit and vegetable service industry, accelerating its global expansion [3] Group 2: Contribution to Rural Revitalization - The company has directly connected farmers with consumers, enhancing the income of 5,030 farmers by 21.3 million yuan in 2024 [2] - Honghui actively participates in national strategies, including poverty alleviation and the "Belt and Road" initiative, aligning its development with national priorities [2][3] - The company signed a support agreement with Nan'ao County in Shantou to enhance local specialty products and donated over 1 million yuan to support the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns" initiative [3] Group 3: Community Engagement and Cultural Connection - Honghui plays a pivotal role in mobilizing private enterprises to participate in the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns" project, facilitating connections between business needs and local requirements [3] - The company emphasizes the integration of local culture with agricultural products, fostering emotional connections with overseas Chinese communities through product innovation [6]

江西新余：收获蜜桔 江西新余：收获蜜桔【2】 江西新余：收获蜜桔【3】 江西新余：收获蜜桔【4】 江西新余：收获蜜桔【5】 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term long - position entry as the main strategy [2] Core Viewpoint - In the new - season apple market, the supply of mid - ripe Fuji is increasing. The color and redness of some Fuji apples in the western region are affected by rainfall and short sunshine, but high - quality apples maintain firm prices. Shandong's Hongjiangjun apples have relatively poor quality. In the old - crop market, remaining supplies in Shandong are concentrated in some townships. Some merchants continue to source stored Fuji due to high prices of early - ripe Fuji and poor color of Hongjiangjun, with relatively stable prices. The digestion speed in the sales area is stable, and merchants' profits are limited due to high early - ripe Fuji prices. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation for the Double Festival [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 957; the main contract position is 2378 hands, a decrease of 240; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 81079 hands, a decrease of 240 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag, above 80 first - class) is 3.7 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The wholesale price of apples is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 20.91 million tons, a decrease of 6.44; Shandong's apple storage capacity ratio is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; Shaanxi's apple storage capacity ratio is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 50000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 6328.4 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1997.6 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5; the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.44; the wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02; the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1; the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12 vehicles, an increase of 0.4; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16 vehicles, an increase of 1; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 25.56 vehicles, an increase of 1.96 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 21.28%, an increase of 0.65; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 21.29%, an increase of 0.66 [2] Industry News - Western early - ripe Fuji is gradually ending, with the remaining supply showing quality differentiation; picking - green Fuji is waiting to color. In Shandong, the trading of Hongjiangjun apples has poor quality, and the trading of stored Fuji has slightly slowed down. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the mainstream price of early - ripe Fuji above 70 is 3.8 - 4.1 yuan/jin, etc. [2] Viewpoint Summary - New - season apples: The supply of mid - ripe Fuji is increasing, with some showing average color due to weather; high - quality prices are firm. Shandong's Hongjiangjun has poor quality. Old - crop market: Remaining supplies in Shandong are concentrated, and some merchants continue to source stored Fuji. The sales area has stable digestion, and merchants' profits are limited. Attention should be paid to the Double Festival stocking [2] Prompt Attention - There is no news today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - long approach [3] Core View - The early - maturing Fuji apples in the new season are gradually on the market, with prices and quality higher than expected, showing a high - opening and high - running trend. The old - crop market's inventory is decreasing, and the sales are slightly accelerating. Pay attention to the stocking situation for the Double Festival [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 8252 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 85099 hands, with an increase of 4789 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4097 hands, an increase of 1682 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia remain unchanged. The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple cold - storage inventory is 27.35 million tons, a decrease of 6.62 million tons. The apple export volume is 50000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. The import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1997.6 million US dollars, and the apple export value is 6328.4 million US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg. The wholesale price of bananas is 3.62 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg. The average daily arrival volume of early - morning trucks in Guangdong's major fruit wholesale markets shows a downward trend [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 20.28%, a decrease of 1.1%, and that of at - the - money put options is 20.27%, a decrease of 17.05% [2] Industry News - Early - maturing Fuji apples in the western producing areas are on the market, with high - quality goods having high prices. In Shandong, the coloration of Red General apples is poor, and the price of cold - storage Fuji apples is stable [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of September 3, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas is 27.35 million tons, a decrease of 6.62 million tons from last week. The inventory sales are slightly accelerating [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The low inventory of old apples, high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, and pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking expectations will boost the price trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices and pay attention to the listing of early - maturing Fuji apples [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 8278 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 89060 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 16948 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3562 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 4102 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75), and Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodities) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.74 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.5 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.56 million tons. The capacity ratios of apple cold - storages in Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.01 and 0.07 respectively. The monthly apple export volume is 50000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1997.6 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples is 6328.4 million US dollars, with a month - on - month decrease of 212886 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.76 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.7 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.5 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The average daily morning arrival vehicle numbers at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Chalong, and Xiaqiao fruit wholesale markets are 11.4, 14.4, and 22.2 respectively, with week - on - week increases of 3.8, 4.8, and 7.2 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 21.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51% [2] Industry News - On August 27, 2025, the trading of bagged Gala apples in the western production areas basically ended, with the remaining fruits of poor quality and chaotic prices. The bag - removing work of early - maturing Fuji apples has started, but large - scale listing is yet to come. The supply of Gansu Huaniu apples is increasing, but the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is average, and the price is slowly declining. In the Shandong production area, the trading of stored Fuji apples is still ongoing, with holders eager to sell and the market weak. The supply of early - maturing varieties such as Mei 8 and Luli is decreasing, and transactions are priced according to quality. The apple 2510 contract rose 1.47% on Wednesday [2] Viewpoint Summary - It is initially estimated that the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 20, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.56 million tons. Although the inventory of old apples is low, the increase in the supply of early - maturing apples has affected the de - stocking speed of inventory goods, and the sales volume has slowed down slightly compared to last week. The market is worried that late - maturing Fuji apples may also have quality problems, leading to high expectations for their opening price [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The current low volume of Gala apples on the market and low old - crop inventory boost short - term apple prices, but the price increase may slow down after a large number of Gala apples are listed. Technically, for the 2510 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the 8200 yuan/ton integer mark. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions at high prices and hold a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8178 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 81105 lots, a decrease of 1363 lots. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2658 lots, an increase of 1045 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot price in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons. The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg [2] Industry Situation - The inventory ratio of Shaanxi apples decreased by 10000 (the unit is not clear). The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons. The inventory ratio of Shandong apples decreased by 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons. The monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts decreased by 245562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average weekly wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.73 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4 vehicles, an increase of 1 vehicle. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 11 vehicles, an increase of 1 vehicle. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16 vehicles, an increase of 0.4 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 20.32%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.39%, an increase of 1.2% [2] Industry News - On August 12, 2025, the trading of inventory Fuji apples in the western production area basically ended, and the remaining goods were mostly picked up by merchants themselves. The trading of early - maturing apples was mainly Gala apples, which were in the centralized bag - removing and coloring period, and merchants were mostly on the sidelines, with prices remaining stable and weak. In the Shandong production area, the trading speed of inventory fruit from farmers was slow, the quality was uneven, there were many price - concession transactions, and the prices were a bit chaotic. The supply of smooth - skinned Luli apples continued to increase, and the prices changed little. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.65% on Tuesday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The large - scale listing of Gala apples is slightly delayed, and the low inventory of old - crop apples boosts short - term apple prices. However, when Gala apples are listed later, the price increase rhythm may slow down. Technically, the 2510 contract should pay attention to the pressure at the 8200 yuan/ton integer mark. It is recommended to consider partially taking profits and exiting long positions at high prices and holding them with a light position [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 8127 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 82468 lots (a week - on - week increase of 2083 lots), the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1613 lots (a week - on - week decrease of 1299 lots) [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week changes [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons), the average wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg), the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 8.22 million tons), the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.09 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.01), the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.02 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.01), and the monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons) [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars, and the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin (a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin) [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of bananas is 5.92 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.73 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg), the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4 (a week - on - week increase of 1), at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 1 (a week - on - week increase of 11), and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16 (a week - on - week increase of 0.4) [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 19.18% (a day - on - day increase of 0.04%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 19.19% (a day - on - day increase of 0.06%) [2] Industry News - On August 11, 2025, after rainfall in the western production areas such as Weinan, the coloring conditions for apples were good. It is expected that a large number of red paper - bagged Gala apples will appear in four or five days. Currently, most purchasers are waiting and watching, and the price is slightly weak. The low - priced bare - skinned Gala apples are selling well, priced according to quality. In the Shandong production area, the trading of inventory apples is light, the trading of early - maturing bare - skinned Luli apples is smooth, and the prices are temporarily stable. On Monday, the 2510 contract of apples closed up 1.31%. According to the preliminary estimate of the bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple output is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main national production areas is 53.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.02 million tons. The sales speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week and is basically the same as that of last year [2] View Summary - The inventory of old - crop apples is low, and the sales pressure is not large. The trading is priced according to quality, and the overall sales speed has slowed down. After rainfall in the western production areas such as Weinan, the coloring conditions for apples are good, and it is expected that a large number of red paper - bagged Gala apples will appear in four or five days. On August 5, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on soliciting opinions on amending the "Detailed Rules for Fresh Apple Futures of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange", which may revise aspects such as delivery units, alternative delivery items, and packaging [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights the successful integration of agricultural products from Jiangxi Province's Ganzhou City into the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, showcasing the transportation of fresh produce like honey tangerines and peaches to urban markets [1] - Ganzhou has established 90 "vegetable basket" production bases and 31 "Zhenpin" brand agricultural enterprises, enhancing the market presence of local agricultural products [1] - The region faced challenges such as low wholesale prices, reliance on intermediaries, and poor sales channels, prompting a shift towards agricultural industrialization and upgrading [1] Group 2 - Companies like Shenjia Food Technology have set up centralized processing bases in Xunwu County, attracted by low rental costs, which facilitates transportation to the Greater Bay Area [1] - Shenjia Food has built a cold storage facility capable of holding 600 tons of produce, utilizing advanced processing techniques to enhance product value, resulting in an annual output exceeding 200 million yuan [1] - Technological innovations in companies like Qiaogengrenjia and Yangjiaoyuan have led to significant revenue increases, with Qiaogengrenjia tripling its income and Yangjiaoyuan boosting output value by 150% [2] Group 3 - The local government is implementing policies to support agricultural brand creation, offering rewards for quality certifications and encouraging direct market connections with the Greater Bay Area [2] - The establishment of processing experience parks and research centers in Shenzhen is fostering talent exchange and creating a supply chain that benefits both the Bay Area and the local agricultural sector [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, apples will maintain a state of tight supply and relatively optimistic demand. The spot price of apples in May is likely to continue to move up slightly, and will probably remain in high - level oscillation with limited upward space as other fruits are on the market in June [4][46] - The price of the apple futures 10 - month contract is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the first half of May. The trend will change as the impact of weather becomes clearer in the second half of May. However, considering the low cold - storage inventory, the downward space is limited [5][47] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. April Market Review - In April, the apple price continued to rise. The cold - storage inventory was low, and the demand entered the seasonal peak. The spot price increased slightly by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan. The price center of the May futures contract rose from 7700 - 7800 yuan/ton to around 8000 yuan/ton, and that of the October contract rose from 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton to 7800 - 8000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Overview - In April, apple inventory was relatively low, demand was fair, and prices were firm with some price increases. Before the May Day holiday, market restocking led to high enthusiasm among merchants, active trading of all kinds of goods, and accelerated cold - storage shipments. Sellers' reluctance to sell due to low inventory pushed up the spot price [7] - The trading price of Shandong Qixia paper - bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods was 4.1 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from March and 0.9 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 28.1%. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan paper - bagged Fuji 70 semi - commercial goods was 4.3 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the end of March, and 0.7 yuan/jin lower than the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [8][10] 2.2 Apple Inventory Situation - As of April 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 309.98 million tons, a decrease of 161.84 million tons from four weeks ago and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3%. Shandong's inventory was 125.9 million tons (down 37.3% year - on - year), Shaanxi's was 104.19 million tons (down 38.2% year - on - year), Gansu's was 52.52 million tons (up 16% year - on - year), Shanxi's was 11.6 million tons (down 76% year - on - year), and Liaoning's was 9.35 million tons (down 72.8% year - on - year) [14] - In May, the cold - storage apple shipment volume is expected to decline compared with April but remain at a relatively high level [14] 2.3 May as the Verification Period of Apple Yield - In April, most apple - producing areas had good weather during the flowering period. The gale, cooling, and sandstorm weather from April 11 - 13 may have affected apple blossom, but the overall impact on yield is not significant. The impact on fruit - setting rate is yet to be verified during the bagging period in mid - to late May [27][28] 2.4 Demand Situation - In April, the cold - storage apple shipment volume was high, with weekly shipments ranging from 30 - 45 million tons. The cold - storage apple profit was good, with the cold - storage gross profit of Shandong Qixia Fuji first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 reaching 0.9 yuan/jin as of April 25 [29] - The arrival volume in the sales area market was average. The arrival volume in Guangzhou's three major wholesale markets in April was slightly higher than that in March but lower than that of the previous two years. The terminal demand improved slightly [29][30] 2.5 Import and Export Situation - In March 2024, the fresh apple export volume was about 96,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 255,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [36] - In March 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 13,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [36] - In the next few months, apple imports and exports are expected to remain at a relatively high level compared with the same period, but there is a strong seasonality. Usually, the export volume decreases in April, while the import volume increases [36] 2.6 Substitute Situation - In late March, the supply of mandarins decreased, and the price rose to a high level compared with the same period. As of the week of April 18, the average wholesale price of mandarins was 7.61 yuan/kg, basically the same as the previous month [41] - The price of Ya pears was basically stable. As of the week of April 18, the average wholesale price of Ya pears was 5.68 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous month [41] - In May, there will be a relative gap in the listing of large - quantity alternative fruits, so it is still a seasonal consumption peak for apples [41] 3. Market Outlook - In the short term, apples will maintain a state of tight supply and relatively optimistic demand. The spot price of apples in May is likely to continue to move up slightly, and will probably remain in high - level oscillation with limited upward space as other fruits are on the market in June [4][46] - The price of the apple futures 10 - month contract is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the first half of May. The trend will change as the impact of weather becomes clearer in the second half of May. However, considering the low cold - storage inventory, the downward space is limited [5][47]