作上建议逢低短多交易，注意控制风险。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 苹果产业日报 2025-08-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 154 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 8278 | | 89060 | 16948 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 3562 | 4102 | | | | | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 4 | 0 | 2.3 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The current low volume of Gala apples on the market and low old - crop inventory boost short - term apple prices, but the price increase may slow down after a large number of Gala apples are listed. Technically, for the 2510 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the 8200 yuan/ton integer mark. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions at high prices and hold a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8178 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 81105 lots, a decrease of 1363 lots. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2658 lots, an increase of 1045 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot price in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons. The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg [2] Industry Situation - The inventory ratio of Shaanxi apples decreased by 10000 (the unit is not clear). The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons. The inventory ratio of Shandong apples decreased by 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons. The monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts decreased by 245562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average weekly wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.73 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4 vehicles, an increase of 1 vehicle. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 11 vehicles, an increase of 1 vehicle. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16 vehicles, an increase of 0.4 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 20.32%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.39%, an increase of 1.2% [2] Industry News - On August 12, 2025, the trading of inventory Fuji apples in the western production area basically ended, and the remaining goods were mostly picked up by merchants themselves. The trading of early - maturing apples was mainly Gala apples, which were in the centralized bag - removing and coloring period, and merchants were mostly on the sidelines, with prices remaining stable and weak. In the Shandong production area, the trading speed of inventory fruit from farmers was slow, the quality was uneven, there were many price - concession transactions, and the prices were a bit chaotic. The supply of smooth - skinned Luli apples continued to increase, and the prices changed little. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.65% on Tuesday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The large - scale listing of Gala apples is slightly delayed, and the low inventory of old - crop apples boosts short - term apple prices. However, when Gala apples are listed later, the price increase rhythm may slow down. Technically, the 2510 contract should pay attention to the pressure at the 8200 yuan/ton integer mark. It is recommended to consider partially taking profits and exiting long positions at high prices and holding them with a light position [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 8127 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 82468 lots (a week - on - week increase of 2083 lots), the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1613 lots (a week - on - week decrease of 1299 lots) [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week changes [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons), the average wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg), the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 8.22 million tons), the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.09 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.01), the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.02 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.01), and the monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons) [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars, and the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin (a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin) [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of bananas is 5.92 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.73 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg), the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4 (a week - on - week increase of 1), at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 1 (a week - on - week increase of 11), and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16 (a week - on - week increase of 0.4) [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 19.18% (a day - on - day increase of 0.04%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 19.19% (a day - on - day increase of 0.06%) [2] Industry News - On August 11, 2025, after rainfall in the western production areas such as Weinan, the coloring conditions for apples were good. It is expected that a large number of red paper - bagged Gala apples will appear in four or five days. Currently, most purchasers are waiting and watching, and the price is slightly weak. The low - priced bare - skinned Gala apples are selling well, priced according to quality. In the Shandong production area, the trading of inventory apples is light, the trading of early - maturing bare - skinned Luli apples is smooth, and the prices are temporarily stable. On Monday, the 2510 contract of apples closed up 1.31%. According to the preliminary estimate of the bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple output is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main national production areas is 53.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.02 million tons. The sales speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week and is basically the same as that of last year [2] View Summary - The inventory of old - crop apples is low, and the sales pressure is not large. The trading is priced according to quality, and the overall sales speed has slowed down. After rainfall in the western production areas such as Weinan, the coloring conditions for apples are good, and it is expected that a large number of red paper - bagged Gala apples will appear in four or five days. On August 5, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on soliciting opinions on amending the "Detailed Rules for Fresh Apple Futures of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange", which may revise aspects such as delivery units, alternative delivery items, and packaging [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights the successful integration of agricultural products from Jiangxi Province's Ganzhou City into the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, showcasing the transportation of fresh produce like honey tangerines and peaches to urban markets [1] - Ganzhou has established 90 "vegetable basket" production bases and 31 "Zhenpin" brand agricultural enterprises, enhancing the market presence of local agricultural products [1] - The region faced challenges such as low wholesale prices, reliance on intermediaries, and poor sales channels, prompting a shift towards agricultural industrialization and upgrading [1] Group 2 - Companies like Shenjia Food Technology have set up centralized processing bases in Xunwu County, attracted by low rental costs, which facilitates transportation to the Greater Bay Area [1] - Shenjia Food has built a cold storage facility capable of holding 600 tons of produce, utilizing advanced processing techniques to enhance product value, resulting in an annual output exceeding 200 million yuan [1] - Technological innovations in companies like Qiaogengrenjia and Yangjiaoyuan have led to significant revenue increases, with Qiaogengrenjia tripling its income and Yangjiaoyuan boosting output value by 150% [2] Group 3 - The local government is implementing policies to support agricultural brand creation, offering rewards for quality certifications and encouraging direct market connections with the Greater Bay Area [2] - The establishment of processing experience parks and research centers in Shenzhen is fostering talent exchange and creating a supply chain that benefits both the Bay Area and the local agricultural sector [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, apples will maintain a state of tight supply and relatively optimistic demand. The spot price of apples in May is likely to continue to move up slightly, and will probably remain in high - level oscillation with limited upward space as other fruits are on the market in June [4][46] - The price of the apple futures 10 - month contract is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the first half of May. The trend will change as the impact of weather becomes clearer in the second half of May. However, considering the low cold - storage inventory, the downward space is limited [5][47] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. April Market Review - In April, the apple price continued to rise. The cold - storage inventory was low, and the demand entered the seasonal peak. The spot price increased slightly by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan. The price center of the May futures contract rose from 7700 - 7800 yuan/ton to around 8000 yuan/ton, and that of the October contract rose from 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton to 7800 - 8000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Overview - In April, apple inventory was relatively low, demand was fair, and prices were firm with some price increases. Before the May Day holiday, market restocking led to high enthusiasm among merchants, active trading of all kinds of goods, and accelerated cold - storage shipments. Sellers' reluctance to sell due to low inventory pushed up the spot price [7] - The trading price of Shandong Qixia paper - bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods was 4.1 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from March and 0.9 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 28.1%. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan paper - bagged Fuji 70 semi - commercial goods was 4.3 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the end of March, and 0.7 yuan/jin lower than the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [8][10] 2.2 Apple Inventory Situation - As of April 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 309.98 million tons, a decrease of 161.84 million tons from four weeks ago and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3%. Shandong's inventory was 125.9 million tons (down 37.3% year - on - year), Shaanxi's was 104.19 million tons (down 38.2% year - on - year), Gansu's was 52.52 million tons (up 16% year - on - year), Shanxi's was 11.6 million tons (down 76% year - on - year), and Liaoning's was 9.35 million tons (down 72.8% year - on - year) [14] - In May, the cold - storage apple shipment volume is expected to decline compared with April but remain at a relatively high level [14] 2.3 May as the Verification Period of Apple Yield - In April, most apple - producing areas had good weather during the flowering period. The gale, cooling, and sandstorm weather from April 11 - 13 may have affected apple blossom, but the overall impact on yield is not significant. The impact on fruit - setting rate is yet to be verified during the bagging period in mid - to late May [27][28] 2.4 Demand Situation - In April, the cold - storage apple shipment volume was high, with weekly shipments ranging from 30 - 45 million tons. The cold - storage apple profit was good, with the cold - storage gross profit of Shandong Qixia Fuji first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 reaching 0.9 yuan/jin as of April 25 [29] - The arrival volume in the sales area market was average. The arrival volume in Guangzhou's three major wholesale markets in April was slightly higher than that in March but lower than that of the previous two years. The terminal demand improved slightly [29][30] 2.5 Import and Export Situation - In March 2024, the fresh apple export volume was about 96,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 255,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [36] - In March 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 13,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [36] - In the next few months, apple imports and exports are expected to remain at a relatively high level compared with the same period, but there is a strong seasonality. Usually, the export volume decreases in April, while the import volume increases [36] 2.6 Substitute Situation - In late March, the supply of mandarins decreased, and the price rose to a high level compared with the same period. As of the week of April 18, the average wholesale price of mandarins was 7.61 yuan/kg, basically the same as the previous month [41] - The price of Ya pears was basically stable. As of the week of April 18, the average wholesale price of Ya pears was 5.68 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous month [41] - In May, there will be a relative gap in the listing of large - quantity alternative fruits, so it is still a seasonal consumption peak for apples [41] 3. Market Outlook - In the short term, apples will maintain a state of tight supply and relatively optimistic demand. The spot price of apples in May is likely to continue to move up slightly, and will probably remain in high - level oscillation with limited upward space as other fruits are on the market in June [4][46] - The price of the apple futures 10 - month contract is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the first half of May. The trend will change as the impact of weather becomes clearer in the second half of May. However, considering the low cold - storage inventory, the downward space is limited [5][47]