Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market is currently in a state of light trading. The short - term apple price is expected to remain stable, and in the short - term, the price will show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. The new - season apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the early - maturing apple purchase price in the northwest region is higher than the same period last year, which may support the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji. However, it is currently the off - season for apple consumption, and weak demand may limit the upside potential of the market [7][9][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On July 23, 2025, the apple futures market showed a slight increase. The closing price of the main apple futures contract AP2510 was 7,956 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change of +0.73%. The trading volume was 46,397 lots, a decrease of 4,132 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 91,030 lots, a decrease of 1,666 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Futures Market Data**: Besides the AP2510 contract, the closing price of the AP2601 contract was 7,817 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.49%. The trading volume was 2,718 lots, and the open interest was 9,817 lots, a decrease of 117 lots from the previous day [4][5]. - **Spot Market Data**: On July 23, the prices in the main apple spot markets showed an overall oscillatory upward trend [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry Events**: Recently, due to the impact of seasonal fruits and a decline in exports and e - commerce sales, the early - maturing apples in production areas such as Dali and Wanrong are being normally purchased at stable prices. The overall apple market remains in a state of light trading. The inventory trading is concentrated in the Shandong production area, with slow sales, but the low remaining inventory and high preserved fruit prices provide bottom - line support [7]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Price Position**: On July 23, the closing price of the AP2510 futures was 7,956 yuan/ton, which was at the mid - to - high level of the price range in the past 30 days, indicating short - term price oscillation [12]. - **K - line Pattern**: On July 23, the K - line closed as a positive line. Combined with the K - lines of the previous few days, it formed an oscillatory upward pattern [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The new - season apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the early - maturing apple purchase price in the northwest region is higher than the same period last year, which may support the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji. Currently, it is the off - season for apple consumption, and weak demand may limit the upside potential of the market. In the short - term, the price will show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [9][13].

2025 年 06 月 23 日 市场预期转强 ---2025 年苹果期货半年度行情展望 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z00001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读： 25/26 年，产量微降，优果率下降预期下，预计现货收购价格略微惯性提高；基差处于 近年偏高位置，有一定安全边际，关注逢低做多机会。 风险提示：自然灾害，消费不及预期，出库节奏，产业政策。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 二 〇 二 三 年 度 | 1. 2025 年上半年苹果期货走势回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. 2025 年苹果期货半年度展望：市场预期转强 | 4 | | 2.1 产量微减、优果率下降 4 | | | 2.1.1 产量：预计 25/26 年产量略微减少 4 | | | 2.1.2 质量：预计 25/26 年优果率可能下降 5 | | | 2.2 入库量减少，春节后涨价去库符合预期 5 | | | 2.2.1 库存：24/25 年入库量减少 5.8% 5 | | | 2. ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products saw a comprehensive rise, with apple futures showing a strong performance, reaching a high of 7786.00 yuan/ton and a gain of 1.88% [1] - Current market focus for apples includes the transition from the old season's inventory and expectations for the new season's production, with low inventory supporting stable prices despite competition from other fruits [1] - Drought conditions in Shaanxi during the fruit-setting period have raised concerns about reduced production, providing some market support, although the overall impact is expected to be lower than initially anticipated [1] Group 2 - Cold storage inventory is low, and downstream demand has decreased, leading to a stalemate in supply and demand; the new season's apple is in the initial bagging stage, with results pending verification [2] - The market is currently facing pressure from seasonal fruits, resulting in general apple consumption; however, the main production area has low inventory levels, limiting selling pressure [2] - As the market enters a seasonal off-peak period without favorable production conditions, apple prices are expected to fluctuate around 7500 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Low inventory combined with the consumption peak season drives the apple futures market to run strongly, with a high probability of upward movement in the later stage. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [35]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2505, continued its strong trend, supported by fundamentals [8]. 2. Supply - Side Situation - As of April 10, 2025, the total remaining apple inventory in national cold storages was 3.3096 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The remaining inventory in Shandong's cold storages was 1.6887 million tons, and that in Shaanxi's cold storages was 0.9232 million tons [13]. 3. Demand - Side Situation - As of April 10, 2025, the inventory clearance rate was 60.62%, 3.24 percentage points lower than last week and 10.86 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Cold storage shipments were good. From April to May is the peak apple -出库 period. The cold storage -出库 in the northwest region is in the later stage, with tight supply. Some merchants have shifted to Shandong for procurement, and growers and cold storage operators are a bit reluctant to sell, asking for relatively high prices [18]. - In February, the export volume of domestic fresh apples was about 68,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.28% and a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. The cumulative export volume from January to February was about 159,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.85%. The export performance is expected to be good in the first quarter [21]. - As of April 11, in Shandong Qixia, the prices of different grades and types of apples varied. For example, the price of 80 above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples was 3.2 - 3.3 yuan per catty [31].

研究所 跳空高开，低库存提供一定支撑 ——国信期货苹果周报 2025年4月6日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 本周苹果期货主力合约AP2505跳空高开，偏强运行，基本面仍有一定支撑。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 据卓创资讯统计，截至2025年4月3日，库存比例较上周降低2.84个百分点，较去年同期（20240404）低10.48个百分点，去库 存率为55.52%。客商节日备货，采购难度加大。4-5月是苹果的传统销售旺季，去库阶段进入高峰期，预计终端需求将有一定程 度提振。 据卓创资讯统计，截至2025年4月3日，全国冷库苹果库存量373.74万吨，库存比例约为28.29%。冷库库存量低于去年同期，处 于往年同期偏低位置。剩余可交易货源主要集中在陕西、山东两个主产区，西北产区果农货已经不多。 免责声明：本报告以投 ...