Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market is currently in a state of light trading. The short - term apple price is expected to remain stable, and in the short - term, the price will show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. The new - season apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the early - maturing apple purchase price in the northwest region is higher than the same period last year, which may support the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji. However, it is currently the off - season for apple consumption, and weak demand may limit the upside potential of the market [7][9][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On July 23, 2025, the apple futures market showed a slight increase. The closing price of the main apple futures contract AP2510 was 7,956 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change of +0.73%. The trading volume was 46,397 lots, a decrease of 4,132 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 91,030 lots, a decrease of 1,666 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Futures Market Data**: Besides the AP2510 contract, the closing price of the AP2601 contract was 7,817 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.49%. The trading volume was 2,718 lots, and the open interest was 9,817 lots, a decrease of 117 lots from the previous day [4][5]. - **Spot Market Data**: On July 23, the prices in the main apple spot markets showed an overall oscillatory upward trend [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry Events**: Recently, due to the impact of seasonal fruits and a decline in exports and e - commerce sales, the early - maturing apples in production areas such as Dali and Wanrong are being normally purchased at stable prices. The overall apple market remains in a state of light trading. The inventory trading is concentrated in the Shandong production area, with slow sales, but the low remaining inventory and high preserved fruit prices provide bottom - line support [7]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Price Position**: On July 23, the closing price of the AP2510 futures was 7,956 yuan/ton, which was at the mid - to - high level of the price range in the past 30 days, indicating short - term price oscillation [12]. - **K - line Pattern**: On July 23, the K - line closed as a positive line. Combined with the K - lines of the previous few days, it formed an oscillatory upward pattern [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The new - season apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the early - maturing apple purchase price in the northwest region is higher than the same period last year, which may support the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji. Currently, it is the off - season for apple consumption, and weak demand may limit the upside potential of the market. In the short - term, the price will show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [9][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In the 25/26 season, it is expected that the apple production will slightly decline, the high - quality fruit rate will drop, and the spot purchase price will slightly increase due to inertia. The continuous positive basis provides a certain safety margin, and investors are advised to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. [2][40][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 H1 Apple Futures Price Trend Review - Apple prices first declined and then rose in H1 2025, with spot prices being stronger than futures prices. The spot price of 80 first - and second - grade striped red apples in Qixia market started at 6,800 yuan/ton in early November 2024, rose to 8,000 yuan/ton in late November, and reached 8,500 yuan/ton in April - May 2025 and has remained stable since then. The 24/25 contract price fluctuated between 4,500 - 8,500 yuan/ton, and the basis widened significantly near the delivery date. The 25/26 contract price fluctuated between 7,100 - 8,100 yuan/ton. [5] - From January to April 2025, old - crop apple prices were weak, while new - crop apple prices fluctuated upward. From May 2025 to the present, new - crop apple prices fluctuated downward, affected by the general decline in commodity prices and the revision of the apple production reduction expectation. [7] 3.2 2025 Apple Futures Semi - annual Outlook: Strengthening Market Expectations 3.2.1 Slight Decrease in Production and Decline in High - quality Fruit Rate - Production: The apple production in the 24/25 season increased by 5.09% year - on - year to 37.35 million tons. In the 25/26 season, due to the "heat, drought, wind" extreme weather in the core northwest production areas, the production is expected to slightly decrease. [8][40] - Quality: The high - quality fruit rate increased significantly in the 24/25 season. In Shaanxi, the proportion of apples above 80 reached 53.5%, and in Shandong, it was 72.2%. In the 25/26 season, affected by factors such as cold snaps, local hail, and continuous drought in mid - and early April, the high - quality fruit rate in Shaanxi is expected to decline. [14] 3.2.2 Decrease in Inventory and Price - Increase to Reduce Inventory after Spring Festival as Expected - Inventory: The national apple inventory in the 24/25 season decreased by 5.8% year - on - year to 8.4 million tons. The inventory peak in the 22/23 season was 8.78 million tons, 8.92 million tons in the 23/24 season, and 8.4 million tons in the 24/25 season. [16][40] - Spot Price: It is expected that the apple purchase price in the 25/26 season will slightly increase due to inertia. In October 2024, the purchase price of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia, Shandong was 6.8 yuan/kg, and in November, it was 8.0 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 yuan/kg. The actual purchase price was stronger than expected. With the expected slight decline in production and high - quality fruit rate, the purchase price is expected to rise slightly. In H1 2025, most fruit prices were relatively strong, which supported the apple price. [28] 3.2.3 Mainly Positive Basis Delivery - Basis: The basis structure is generally in a positive basis state. Except for the AP2410 and AP2411 contracts in the 24/25 season, the rest of the contracts were delivered with a positive basis. The 25/26 contracts are currently in a positive basis state. Since the AP2411 contract, the new apple futures delivery standard has been implemented. [32] - Delivery Volume: The delivery volume has increased, but the overall base is still low. As of the end of May 2025, the average delivery volume of apple futures contracts was 262 lots. The average delivery volume in the 23/24 season was 357 lots, and in the 24/25 season, it was 469 lots. [35] - Trading Data: The trading volume and open interest are still at a relatively low level. In 2022, the cumulative trading volume of apple futures was 47.54 million lots; in 2023, it was 30.79 million lots, a year - on - year decrease of 35%; in 2024, it was 28.69 million lots, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative trading volume was 11.86 million lots, a year - on - year increase of 37%. At the end of May 2025, the open interest was 120,000 lots, a year - on - year decrease of 71,000 lots. [38] 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - Conclusion: Market expectations are strengthening. In the 24/25 season, the national apple production increased by 5.09% year - on - year, and the inventory decreased by 5.8% year - on - year. The spot price in the purchase period was stronger than expected, and the price increased to reduce inventory after the Spring Festival. Since the AP2412 contract, the active contract basis has generally maintained a positive basis. In the 25/26 season, it is expected that the production will slightly decline, the high - quality fruit rate will drop, and the spot purchase price will slightly increase due to inertia. The probability of an increase in delivery cost is high, and the continuous positive basis provides a certain safety margin. [40] - Investment Outlook: In terms of trading strategies, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. With the expected slight decline in production and high - quality fruit rate in the 25/26 season, the spot purchase price is expected to rise slightly due to inertia. The positive basis provides a certain safety margin. [42]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products saw a comprehensive rise, with apple futures showing a strong performance, reaching a high of 7786.00 yuan/ton and a gain of 1.88% [1] - Current market focus for apples includes the transition from the old season's inventory and expectations for the new season's production, with low inventory supporting stable prices despite competition from other fruits [1] - Drought conditions in Shaanxi during the fruit-setting period have raised concerns about reduced production, providing some market support, although the overall impact is expected to be lower than initially anticipated [1] Group 2 - Cold storage inventory is low, and downstream demand has decreased, leading to a stalemate in supply and demand; the new season's apple is in the initial bagging stage, with results pending verification [2] - The market is currently facing pressure from seasonal fruits, resulting in general apple consumption; however, the main production area has low inventory levels, limiting selling pressure [2] - As the market enters a seasonal off-peak period without favorable production conditions, apple prices are expected to fluctuate around 7500 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Low inventory combined with the consumption peak season drives the apple futures market to run strongly, with a high probability of upward movement in the later stage. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [35]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2505, continued its strong trend, supported by fundamentals [8]. 2. Supply - Side Situation - As of April 10, 2025, the total remaining apple inventory in national cold storages was 3.3096 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The remaining inventory in Shandong's cold storages was 1.6887 million tons, and that in Shaanxi's cold storages was 0.9232 million tons [13]. 3. Demand - Side Situation - As of April 10, 2025, the inventory clearance rate was 60.62%, 3.24 percentage points lower than last week and 10.86 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Cold storage shipments were good. From April to May is the peak apple -出库 period. The cold storage -出库 in the northwest region is in the later stage, with tight supply. Some merchants have shifted to Shandong for procurement, and growers and cold storage operators are a bit reluctant to sell, asking for relatively high prices [18]. - In February, the export volume of domestic fresh apples was about 68,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.28% and a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. The cumulative export volume from January to February was about 159,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.85%. The export performance is expected to be good in the first quarter [21]. - As of April 11, in Shandong Qixia, the prices of different grades and types of apples varied. For example, the price of 80 above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples was 3.2 - 3.3 yuan per catty [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - As of April 3, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory is 3.7374 million tons, with an inventory ratio of about 28.29%. The cold storage inventory is lower than the same period last year and at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The remaining tradable goods are mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Shandong. The inventory ratio has decreased by 2.84 percentage points compared to last week and 10.48 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with a destocking rate of 55.52%. During the traditional apple sales season from April to May, terminal demand is expected to be boosted to some extent. The low inventory provides certain support for the market, and short - term operations are recommended to be treated with a bullish - biased shock mentality [13][18][36] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2505, opened higher and showed a relatively strong performance, with certain support from the fundamentals [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of April 3, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory is 3.7374 million tons, with an inventory ratio of about 28.29%. The cold storage inventory is lower than the same period last year and at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The remaining tradable goods are mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Shandong, and there is not much fruit farmer's goods in the northwest region [13] 3. Demand - side Situation - As of April 3, 2025, the inventory ratio has decreased by 2.84 percentage points compared to last week and 10.48 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with a destocking rate of 55.52%. Merchants' holiday stocking has increased the procurement difficulty. From April to May is the traditional apple sales season, and terminal demand is expected to be boosted to some extent [18] - In February, the domestic fresh apple export volume was about 68,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.28% and a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. The cumulative export volume from January to February was about 159,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.85%. Foreign trade orders increased in February, and exports are expected to perform well in the first quarter [21] - As of April 3, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of Grade 1 and 2 fruit farmer's goods for 80 and above was 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin for slice - red apples and 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin for striped apples. The price of merchant's goods was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin for slice - red apples and 4.0 - 5.0 yuan/jin for striped apples. The price of general goods was 2.7 - 2.8 yuan/jin, the price of Grade 3 merchant's goods was 2.2 - 2.4 yuan/jin, and the price of fruit farmer's goods was 1.5 - 2.0 yuan/jin [32]