本文节选自彭博终端NSN SXYZPADWLU68 。如您还不是终端用户，您可在文末" 阅读原文 "联系我们预约产品演示。 彭博行业研究 欧美大型药企2025年年中展望 （彭博行业研究）——观点：美国和欧洲大型药企下半年前景，既有对美国药品定价的担忧， 又有对拟公布数据集表现乐观的预期。礼来和诺和诺德将在销售和收益增长方面保持行业领先 地位。美国已提出多种针对药品降价的方案，但尚未实施，而关税威胁促使许多企业承诺在美 国加大投资。中国市场的压力已经对默克和艾伯维等企业造成了影响。预计将公布的关键数据 集涉及阿尔茨海默症（诺和诺德、百时美施贵宝）、降脂（默克）、特应性皮炎（赛诺菲）和 多发性硬化症（罗氏）领域。 长按或扫描二维码 阅读完整报告 " 精彩内容节选 欧美药企逾3,500亿美元的销售面临专利到期风险 随着专利在2025-2030年到期，多达133种药品将失去独占权，美国和欧洲大型药企逾3,500亿美元 的年销售额恐将受到仿制药竞争的影响。在药企面临专利到期风险的收入中，容易仿制的小分子药 物约占40%，而生物制剂的占比最高。根据市场普遍预期，到2030年欧美药企的销售侵蚀规模最高 可达1,370亿美元 ...

AbbVie (ABBV) FY Conference Summary Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is currently facing challenges related to drug pricing and affordability, with ongoing discussions with the administration aimed at balancing access to medicines and preserving innovation [1][4][7]. - The U.S. is noted to pay significantly more for innovative medicines compared to Europe, which pays about half as much [2]. Core Company Insights Drug Pricing and Administration Engagement - AbbVie is encouraged by productive conversations with the administration regarding drug pricing and affordability [1][5]. - The company is actively engaging in trade negotiations to address disparities in drug pricing and reimbursement timelines, particularly in the EU [2][3]. Financial Performance and Guidance - AbbVie reported strong business momentum, exceeding revenue guidance by $550 million in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and aesthetics [19][21]. - The company raised its full-year sales guidance to approximately $59.7 billion, marking a new peak shortly after the HUMIRA loss of exclusivity [21][22]. Product Performance - The ex-HUMIRA business grew approximately 23% year-over-year on an operational basis, indicating robust performance across various franchises [20][23]. - SKYRIZI and RINVOQ are capturing significant market share in immunology, with one out of every two new switching patients in Crohn's disease opting for these treatments [38][39]. Pipeline and Future Growth - AbbVie has a strong pipeline with a focus on early-stage opportunities, having executed over 25 early-stage deals since the beginning of the previous year [33][34]. - The company is investing in differentiated therapies across various therapeutic areas, including immunology, oncology, and neuroscience, with a particular emphasis on addressing unmet needs in obesity and Parkinson's disease [36][57]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in immunology is intensifying, with new entrants like Tremfya and Stellara biosimilars impacting market dynamics. However, AbbVie maintains a strong position due to the efficacy of SKYRIZI and RINVOQ [38][44]. - The introduction of oral IL-23s is expected to carve out a niche for certain patients, but AbbVie believes that its biologics will continue to dominate the market for more severe cases [47][49]. Aesthetics and Consumer Sentiment - The aesthetics market is showing signs of stabilization, with AbbVie recovering market share in the toxin segment. The company anticipates that the approval of a new fast-acting toxin will further stimulate market growth [75][77]. Key Takeaways - AbbVie is well-positioned for growth with a robust pipeline and strong financial performance, despite challenges in the pharmaceutical landscape related to pricing and competition [15][16]. - The company is focused on maintaining its R&D leadership while navigating regulatory changes and market dynamics [7][30].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has nearly tripled the number of phase three assets since 2021, now having over 20 unique assets with blockbuster potential launching in the next three to five years [5][6] - The company has invested over $70 billion into business development over the last few years, enhancing its pipeline and portfolio [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The late-stage pipeline is strong, with two assets, WIN Revere and Cat Baxtive, already in the midst of launching and performing well [5][6] - The early-stage pipeline includes 50 different programs moving from phase one to phase two, indicating robust development activity [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on US manufacturing to mitigate tariff risks and has invested $12 billion in manufacturing capital in the US from 2018 to 2024 [14][15] - The company plans to invest an additional $9 billion in manufacturing and R&D facilities by 2028 [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow through the KEYTRUDA loss of exclusivity (LOE) by focusing on innovation and expanding its product portfolio [8][10] - The strategic framework includes investing in and augmenting the pipeline, with a focus on oncology and expanding into cardiometabolic and immunology sectors [9][91] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges significant macroeconomic challenges, including MFN (Most Favored Nation) pricing and tariffs, but remains focused on innovation as the path to long-term sustainability [10][12] - The company is actively engaging with the administration regarding drug pricing reforms and believes that addressing middlemen costs is crucial for lowering drug prices [29][32] Other Important Information - The company is committed to producing both drug product and drug substance in the US by 2026, which aligns with its strategy to enhance domestic manufacturing capabilities [21][23] - The company is exploring opportunities in combination therapies and bispecific antibodies to enhance its pipeline in immunology [88][90] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company rank the various sectoral pressures? - Management identified MFN as the most significant policy question, followed by tariffs and FDA changes, but noted that these have not yet had a direct impact on operations [12][16] Question: What steps has the company taken regarding KEYTRUDA and tariffs? - The company has shifted to US manufacturing for KEYTRUDA and brought in inventory to mitigate tariff impacts, viewing this as a no-regret move [20][21] Question: What is the company's strategy for the subcutaneous KEYTRUDA? - The company plans to price the subcutaneous version competitively to maximize adoption and access, ensuring it aligns with the IV pricing [53][54] Question: What is the outlook for WIN Revere? - The launch of WIN Revere is progressing well, with expectations for steady growth driven by physician confidence and safety profiles [57][58] Question: What is the potential for enicetide in the market? - The company believes enicetide can democratize access to LDL cholesterol lowering, with a significant unmet need in cardiovascular disease [71][76]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's stock has experienced significant volatility during Trump's second term, primarily due to the potential implementation of tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, which could negatively impact the company and the industry as a whole [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariffs and Their Impact - President Trump has proposed a 25% tariff on imported drugs, although these tariffs have not yet been implemented [2]. - Eli Lilly's CEO acknowledged that expanding tariffs would negatively affect the company and the pharmaceutical industry, but did not specify the potential impact [3]. - The U.S. imported nearly $50 billion in pharmaceutical products from Ireland last year, making it a likely target for tariffs, which could pose a significant challenge for Lilly [4]. Group 2: Company Operations and Manufacturing - Most of Eli Lilly's product sourcing outside the U.S. comes from Ireland, with approximately $3.2 billion in long-lived assets reported in Ireland at the end of 2024 [5]. - Lilly has a large U.S. manufacturing footprint and is currently working on 10 active projects to build and expand facilities, aiming to supply the U.S. market entirely from domestic operations [9]. Group 3: Pricing Strategies and Regulatory Risks - President Trump issued an executive order for "most-favored nation" (MFN) drug pricing, which could pose a risk to the industry, although it may face legal challenges [9][10]. - If MFN pricing is implemented, drug manufacturers might adjust their pricing strategies to maintain profitability, such as increasing list prices in other countries while offering discounts [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outcomes of the proposed tariffs and MFN drug pricing remain uncertain, but it is believed that Eli Lilly and other major pharmaceutical companies will navigate these challenges effectively [12].

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头花旗集团(Citi)周三发布面向全球医药行业的最新研报，该机构宣布 上调对于美国医药巨头再生元制药公司(REGN.US)的股票评级，下调了另一医药行业领军者艾伯维 (ABBV.US)的股票评级，核心逻辑在于特朗普政府最新针对全球制药行业的政策举措对这两家美国医药 行业的巨头带来不同程度的估值与基本面预期风险。 白宫公布的公告称，特朗普的总统行政令"指示美国贸易代表和商务部长采取行动，确保外国不参与故 意且不公平地压低美国市场的药品价格并推高美国药价的行为"。该命令指示美国政府向全球制药商们 传达价格目标，确保美国作为全球最大规模的处方药购买国和资助国，获得最优惠的价格。 在特朗普签署上述面向全球制药领域的行政命令之后，花旗集团分析师 Geoff Meacham 将再生元制药 公司的股票评级从"中性"上调至"买入"这一最乐观的看涨评级，他认为这家热门眼科药物Eylea的制造 商在关税政策和最惠国折扣相关政策风险上的敞口"看起来相当可控"。 近年来，再生元与艾伯维在业务重心上的差异日益明显：前者聚焦高科技单抗平台与少数 blockbuster产 品(比如Eylea、Dupixen ...

不过这一次特朗普喊话后，美股并没有像此前那样盘中迅速拉涨，反而几大指数都出现了一定的回落， 投资者一反常态地表现得意兴阑珊，投资者们稀稀落落地离开了牌桌。 北京时间，周三早上，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，纳指涨1.61%，标普500指数涨0.72%，道指跌 0.64%。其中，标普500指数年内转涨。英伟达涨超5%，创2月27日以来收盘新高；特斯拉涨约5%，创2 月24日以来收盘新高；奈飞、Meta涨超2%，苹果、亚马逊、英特尔涨超1%，谷歌小幅上涨；微软小幅 下跌。 美股早盘时段，特朗普自夸道，"市场上涨真是太美妙了"，并再度激情"喊单"，"它还会继续涨，涨得 高的多"，试图让美股的狂欢继续下去。 01 特朗普再次喊话鲍威尔：降息 昨日晚间，美国劳工统计局公布了月度消费者物价指数（CPI）报告。数据显示，美国4月份CPI环比上 升0.2%，同比上升2.3%，分别低于市场预期的0.3%和2.4%。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%，与预期一致。其中2.3%的 CPI以及2.8%的核心CPI同比涨幅，都是2021年初以来的最低值。 特朗普援引当日稍早出炉的弱于预期的通胀报 ...

北京时间周一深夜，美国总统特朗普召开白宫新闻发布会，介绍并签署了有关降低美国处方药价格的行 政令。 从市场反应来看，与创新药公司股价5月12日下跌相反，CXO（合同外包服务）板块在当日上涨。 有观点认为，在药价降低、利润空间压缩的背景下，跨国医药企业更有动力降本增效。而最简单的方 式，就是更多地从中国BD（商务拓展）产品，以及更高频率地采用中国CXO。如果最终药品价格降幅 大，欧美高昂的研发成本会令MNC（跨国制药企业）更难接受，只能进一步从临床前阶段和生产阶段 节约成本，寻求中国CXO服务。 但需要强调的是，这一假设建立在美国药品降价落地预期高、且直接影响MNC利润空间的前提下。更 多行业人士对此持谨慎观察态度。 特朗普签署有关降低美国处方药价格的行政令 美东时间5月12日，美国总统特朗普召开白宫新闻发布会，介绍并签署了有关降低美国处方药价格的行 政令。 一位国内CXO企业人士在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，"Hybrid NewCo"是传统"NewCo"的 变种，后者是将国产创新药权益引出去并在当地继续做临床开发。 行业关心的第一落点在于，政策最后能落地的可能性及程度；第二落点则在于，即使政策落地， ...

靴子落地！ 美东时间周一，美国总统特朗普签署了有关降低美国处方药价格的行政令。该行政令的详情公布后，美股大型 制药企业的股价直线拉升，跌幅迅速收窄并转涨，截至收盘，礼来、辉瑞、诺和诺德股价分别涨2.86%、 3.64%、2.98%。 有分析称，这项行政令措辞模糊，几乎没有具体实施细节，因此药企的股价反应积极，被解读为"没有预期的 担忧那么大"。与特朗普的诸多行政举措类似，他的医药定价政策似乎又忽视了市场本身的规律。 当天，美股三大指数集体大幅收涨，纳指大涨超4%，道指大涨超1160点，涨幅达2.81%，美股大型科技股集体 走高。中概股跑赢大盘，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨5.4%，两倍做多中国互联网股票ETF大涨11.07%，三倍做多 富时中国ETF大涨9.95%。 特朗普签了 白宫发布的公告称，上述行政令"指示政府向制药商传达价格目标，确保美国作为全球最大的处方药购买国和 资助国，获得最优惠的价格。" 公告称，美国卫生与公众服务部（以下简称"卫生部"）部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪表示，"将建立一种机制，让美 国患者能直接向以'最惠国'价格向美国销售药品的制造商购买药品，绕过中间商。" 特朗普的行政令还要求，一旦制药商 ...

美国总统特朗普看来要比他第一个任期更激进地挥刀砍向药价。 美东时间5月12日周一，特朗普签署了一项行政命令。他在白宫宣布，"从今天开始，美国将不再补贴外国的医疗保健"，美国"将不再容忍大型制药公司牟取 暴利和哄抬价格"，实施所谓的"最惠国药品（Most Favored Nation）定价"。特朗普说： "基本上，我们正在做的是平等化。我们将支付世界上最低的（药品）价格。谁出的价最低，我们就收谁，这就是我们要得到的。" "我们将减少中间商，促进药品以最惠国价格直接出售给美国公民。" 白宫公布的公告称，特朗普的行政令"指示美国贸易代表和商务部长采取行动，确保外国不参与故意且不公平地压低美国市场价格并推高美国药价的行 为"。"该命令指示政府向制药商传达价格目标，确保美国作为全球最大的处方药购买国和资助国，获得最优惠的价格。" 公告称，美国卫生与公众服务部（HHS）部长小肯尼迪"将建立一种机制，让美国患者能直接向以'最惠国'价格向美国销售药品的制造商购买药品，绕过中 间商。" 特朗普的行政令指示，一旦制药商未提供最惠国价格，小肯尼迪将："(1) 提出实施最惠国定价的规则；(2) 采取其他积极措施，大幅降低美国消费者 ...

制药贸易协会：特朗普提出的新药品定价提案或使制药公司在十年内损失高达1万亿美元 智通财经5月7日电，据制药行业最大的贸易协会PhRMA估计，特朗普提出的新药品定价提案或使制药 公司在十年内损失高达1万亿美元；该提案要求将医疗补助计划中的药品价格与其他发达国家较低的价 格对齐。 ...