对话蒙煤专家：2026 年蒙煤进口展望 20251203 电子竞拍是一把双刃剑，为蒙古带来外汇和收益，但稳定性较差。在市场下行 时持续流拍，上涨时溢价最高达 200 美元以上。然而，由于通关时间较长，有 可能在到达中国后出现亏损。今年（2025 年）放标 3,620 万吨，成交 1,895 万吨，流拍率近 50%。动力煤占 72%，主焦煤仅 28%，其中 M4 占比较大， 而 M3 和 M5 金牌较少。 摘要 蒙古煤炭进口受政局不确定性影响，但跨境铁路项目和长期合同保障了 增长潜力。预计 2026 年进口量将维持在 8,000-8,300 万吨，价格保持 相对稳定。 2025 年煤炭市场价格波动大，6 月跌至 710 元/吨，11 月反弹至 1,180 元/吨。长期贸易商盈利，竞拍贸易商亏损，期限商利润较好，平 均每吨约 50 元。 蒙古煤炭出口增量取决于中国政策支持和市场稳定。总理会面虽提出 1 亿吨目标，但生产、通关和仓储能力仍面临挑战。 炼焦煤占比下降，预计 2026 年降至 65%左右，约 6,000 万吨。塔班 陶勒盖矿山是主要来源，但 5 号主焦煤产量预计下降。 蒙古可能采取落地加工政策，优化竞拍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coking coal market is currently in a state of weak supply-demand balance, with prices showing a fluctuating trend influenced by multiple factors including fundamentals, policy disturbances, and macro sentiment [1] Supply Side - The recovery pace of coking coal supply is stable, with domestic coal mines gradually returning to normal production levels after the National Day holiday [2] - Import channels have resumed normal operations, with significant increases in Mongolian coal imports expected due to a trial of full-load transportation mode [2] - The international forward market remains stable, with Australian premium coking coal prices holding at $205.5 per ton, while Russian coal markets are stable with active inquiries but a cautious outlook [2] Demand Side - Overall, there is still support from rigid demand, but the purchasing pace from downstream sectors has slowed [3] - Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills remains high at 241.54 million tons, indicating that the rigid demand for coking coal has not completely disappeared [3] - Steel prices are under pressure, which may weaken the overall demand for coking coal [3] Inventory Situation - Upstream coal mine inventories have seen a slight accumulation, but the pressure is not significant, with raw coal inventory at 4.4635 million tons and washed coal inventory at 1.959 million tons [4] - The inventory levels are relatively low compared to the annual average, and the accumulation is attributed to normal purchasing pauses during the holiday rather than weak demand [4] - Downstream sectors are continuing to reduce inventories, which supports coking coal prices [4] External Factors - The macro environment is providing support for the market, with coal and coke prices continuing to show a fluctuating trend without significant volatility [5] - The recovery of domestic coal production to pre-holiday levels is limited in further incremental space, and regulatory policies may constrain supply [5] - The short-term supply pressure is manageable, with high pig iron production levels maintaining some rigid demand for coking coal [5]