1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, news of Indonesian coal exports disturbed the market, but the impact was short - lived, causing the prices of coking coal and coke to rise and then fall. With domestic coal mines starting to shut down for the holiday, daily production has significantly declined. Coal mine clean coal inventories are being depleted, and downstream enterprises are restocking as needed [4]. - Indonesia has denied the market's rumor of production cuts. In the short term, about 6.16 million tons of monthly imported Indonesian coal are affected, accounting for 15.1% of China's monthly imports, but the actual impact is limited. In the long term, if Indonesia cuts production, China can make up for the gap by increasing domestic production and imports from Russia and Mongolia, but the cost - effectiveness of Indonesian coal is hard to replace. Future attention should be paid to the RKAB approval results [5]. - With only one week left until the Lunar New Year, downstream pre - holiday restocking is almost over. As the impact of the news weakens, the futures market has been reducing positions and declining since Thursday. With relatively limited supply - demand contradictions, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next week, and a cautious bearish attitude is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Coking Coal Market 3.1.1. Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost | Variety | Location | Date | Spot Price | Warehouse Receipt Cost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Meng 5 | Tangshan | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1430 | 1203 | | Meng 5 | Inner Mongolia | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1230 | 1225 | | Anze Main Coking Coal | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1570 | 1310 | | Gujiao Main Coking Coal | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1491 | 1231 | | Pingmei No.1 | Pingdingshan | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1630 | 1145 | | Shan Jiao Rizhao No.1 | Rizhao | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1600 | 1150 | | Xiang Jiao No.1 | Linfen | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1400 | 1120 | | Kaijia No.1 | Jiexiu | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1500 | 1200 | [10] 3.1.2. Basis | Contract | Basis | Weekly Change | Basis Rate | One - Month Average | Seasonal Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | - 72 | 2 | - 5.85% | - 99 | - 162 | | May | 170 | - 11 | 13.82% | 145 | - 23 | | September | 94 | - 9 | 7.64% | 67 | - 60 | [12] 3.1.3. Coking Coal Supply - **Mines**: The average daily output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 1.9253 million tons, a decrease of 52,900 tons compared to the previous week; the average daily output of clean coal was 754,500 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to the previous week [19]. - **Coal Washeries**: The average daily output of sample coal washeries was 263,100 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 35.54%, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the previous week [22]. 3.1.4. Coking Coal Imports - In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, imports from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [23][26]. | Country | As of 2025 - 12 - 31 | Cumulative Value | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mongolia | 672 | 6007 | 7.6% | 59.1% | 5.8% | | Russia | 360 | 3276 | 31.3% | 55.0% | 8.4% | | Canada | 110 | 1080 | 109.9% | 8.4% | 19.8% | | Australia | 178 | 886 | 109.3% | 10.5% | - 14.0% | | Other Countries | 57 | 613 | 54.3% | - 62.8% | - 60.6% | | Total | 1377 | 11863 | 28.3% | 28.6% | - 2.7% | [25] 3.1.5. Coking Coal Auction Data | Coking Coal Auction Data | 2026 - 01 - 30 | 2026 - 01 - 23 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Listing Volume (10,000 tons) | 154.43 | 137.735 | 16.70 | | Transaction Rate (%) | 70.22 | 88.02 | - 17.8 | | Unsold Rate (%) | 29.78 | 11.98 | 17.8 | [29] 3.2. Coke Market 3.2.1. Coke Warehouse Receipt Cost | Variety | Location | Date | Spot Price | Warehouse Receipt Cost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Wet - Quenched Coke | Shandong | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1480 | 1736 | | Rizhao Port Dry - Quenched Coke | Shandong | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1680 | 1725 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Pengfei Group) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1530 | 1700 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Hengfeng Group) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1570 | 1740 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Shanxi Jinhui) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1570 | 1690 | | Jinzhong Wet - Quenched (Zhongjin Taihang) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1310 | 1697 | | Jinzhong Wet - Quenched (Jiexiu Changsheng) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1330 | 1719 | | Handan Dry - Quenched (Xinsheng Coal Chemical) | Hebei | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1550 | 1650 | [39] 3.2.2. Coking Profit | Region | 2026 - 01 - 29 | 2026 - 01 - 22 | Weekly Change | Same - Period Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National | - 55 | - 66 | 11 | - 28 | | Shanxi | - 41 | - 51 | 10 | - 41 | | Hebei | 0 | - 11 | 11 | - 11 | | Inner Mongolia | - 92 | - 103 | 11 | 4 | | Shandong | 2 | - 8 | 10 | - 1 | [41] 3.2.3. Basis | Contract | Basis | Weekly Change | Basis Rate | One - Month Average | Seasonal Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | - 262 | - 1 | - 17.68% | - 258 | - 174 | | May | - 69 | 39 | - 4.63% | - 56 | - 129 | | September | - 135 | 41 | - 9.09% | - 122 | - 164 | [44] 3.2.4. Coke Inventory Distribution | Coke Inventory Distribution | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 2026 - 01 - 30 | Weekly MoM | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel Mills | 6923,800 tons | 6781,900 tons | 141,900 tons | 0.21% | | Steel Mill Inventory Usable Days | 12.76 days | 12.54 days | 0.22 days | - 3.8% | | Independent Coking Enterprises | 827,400 tons | 843,900 tons | - 16,500 tons | - 47.18% | | Ports | 2.011 million tons | 1.98065 million tons | 30,350 tons | 13.49% | | Tianjin Port | 820,000 tons | 770,000 tons | 50,000 tons | 39.0% | | Qingdao Port | 740,000 tons | 780,000 tons | - 40,000 tons | 4.23% | | Rizhao | 450,000 tons | 430,000 tons | 20,000 tons | - 4.26% | | Total | 9.7622 million tons | 9.60645 million tons | 155,750 tons | - 4.74% | [56]

期货研究报告|黑色专题 2026-02-06 双焦 2601 合约交割总结报告 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 xingyawen@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03054449 投资咨询号：Z0016137 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguolaing@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 邢亚文 焦煤 2601 合约交割规模创出历史最高水平，究其原因在于一方面是临近交割月盘面大 幅下跌，给予卖方较好的参与机会；另一方面是现货销售不佳，导致卖方参与交割意 愿较强。焦炭 2601 合约交割规模有限，主要原因在于月差结构有利于卖方转抛远月， 导致实际交割量相对不足。考虑到后期基本面和宏观预期并未出现明显转弱趋势，因 此焦煤和焦炭远月交割风险相对有限。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 本次焦煤交割量达到 41.4 万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month-on-month, the downstream replenishment rhythm is average, the spot market of coal and coke has a weak rebound, and individual coal types have turned down. The futures market lacks upward drivers, so it is necessary to operate cautiously [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - This week, ferrous metals generally declined, and the prices of coal and coke futures led the decline. The night session yesterday continued the weak trend; the spot market was stable after rising, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal turned down this week, with a decline of 45 yuan/ton [2] Production Data - In December 2025, the coke output was 42.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%; the annual cumulative output was 502.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.34%, and the output hit a new historical high [2] Supply Side - The overall supply of coal is relatively strong. After the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal increased to 1.978 million tons and 768,000 tons respectively (the statistical sample increased). The raw coal at the mine end continued to increase in inventory, and the clean coal inventory was further depleted. On the import side, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 1.958 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 312,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 488,000 tons, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level [2] Demand Side - The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, rising to about 40%; the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly last week, mainly due to maintenance. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 14,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 35,300 tons [2]

Group 1 - The investment rating of the report is not mentioned [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that after the new year, the productivity of coal, coke and steel enterprises has increased, and the upstream's confidence in price support is supported by the downstream's inventory replenishment of raw materials before the festival. The short - term price increase of the futures market is weak, and cautious operation is recommended [3] Group 3 - **Market performance**: Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated weakly, while the spot market was generally strong. Domestic low - sulfur coking coal rose by 110 yuan/ton, and Mongolian raw coal rose by 112 yuan/ton in total. After individual coking plants in Inner Mongolia raised coke prices last week, coking enterprises in Hebei and Shanxi issued price increase letters, planning to implement them this week [2] - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: After the new year, coal mines have resumed production one after another. Last week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal increased to 1.978 million tons and 768,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end continued to increase, while the clean coal inventory further decreased. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 195,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 48,800 tons. The port inventory remained at a relatively high level [3] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills has recovered to about 40%. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly last week due to maintenance. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35,300 tons. Steel mills continued to replenish raw material inventories, and the available days of in - plant inventory increased steadily [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Date: December 30, 2025 - Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Price and Inventory Information Coal Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1450.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and an annual increase of 2.11% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Pick-up Price is 955.00, with a daily decrease of 15.00, a weekly decrease of 15.00, a monthly decrease of 45.00, and an annual increase of 1.60% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Mongolian No. 5 is 1340.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 20.00, a monthly decrease of 80.00, and an annual decrease of 8.22% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1600.00, with no daily change, no weekly change, a monthly increase of 20.00, and an annual increase of 10.34% [2] Inventory Levels - The total inventory is 4011.40, with a weekly increase of 77.29, a monthly increase of 290.20, and an annual decrease of 15.69% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 282.90, with a weekly increase of 10.13, a monthly increase of 58.98, and an annual decrease of 17.19% [2] - The port inventory is 286.17, with a weekly decrease of 21.33, a monthly decrease of 5.33, and an annual decrease of 40.26% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 804.99, with a weekly increase of 10.34, a monthly increase of 7.91, and an annual increase of 6.06% [2] - The coking coking coal inventory is 1036.29, with a weekly decrease of 1.01, a monthly decrease of 1.90, and an annual decrease of 2.44% [2] Coking Indicators - The coking capacity utilization rate is 71.66, with a weekly decrease of 0.39, a monthly decrease of 1.29, and an annual decrease of 1.97% [2] - The coking coke inventory is 85.52, with a weekly decrease of 0.21, a monthly increase of 0.10, and an annual decrease of 0.86% [2] Futures Market - The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1108.50, with a daily increase of 6.50, a weekly decrease of 16.50, a monthly decrease of 55.50, and an annual decrease of 2.72% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 09 is 1188.00, with a daily increase of 12.00, a weekly decrease of 11.50, a monthly decrease of 47.00, and an annual decrease of 2.06% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 01 is 1016.00, with a daily decrease of 1.00, a weekly decrease of 18.50, a monthly decrease of 60.50, and an annual increase of 0.44% [2] - The 05 basis is -120.22, with a daily decrease of 78.91, a weekly decrease of 21.43, a monthly decrease of 39.90, and an annual decrease of 75.90 [2] - The 09 basis is -199.72, with a daily decrease of 84.41, a weekly decrease of 26.43, a monthly decrease of 48.40, and an annual increase of 0.70 [2] - The 01 basis is -27.72, with a daily decrease of 71.41, a weekly decrease of 19.43, a monthly decrease of 34.90, and an annual decrease of 1.33 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is -79.50, with a daily decrease of 5.50, a weekly decrease of 5.00, a monthly decrease of 8.50, and an annual increase of 0.08 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 172.00, with a daily increase of 13.00, a weekly increase of 7.00, a monthly increase of 13.50, and an annual decrease of 0.15 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is -92.50, with a daily decrease of 7.50, a weekly decrease of 2.00, a monthly decrease of 5.00, and an annual decrease of 0.28 [2]

Group 1 - The report provides the daily customs clearance data of Ganqimao Port from December 8th to 27th, 2025, including the number of customs clearance vehicles, AGV numbers, the total number of customs clearance vehicles, the increase or decrease, and short - haul freight rates [1] - As of December 27th, the average daily number of customs clearance vehicles in December was 1464, and the short - haul freight rates showed a slight decline. The customs clearance vehicles at Ganqimao Port maintained a high - level operation [1] Group 2 - There is a chart showing the daily customs clearance vehicles and monthly average customs clearance level of 288 Port [4]

Group 1 - As of December 26, the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port continued to rise by 200,000 tons to 3.88 million tons, still 777,500 tons short of the highest inventory point of 4.6575 million tons on February 28, 2025 [1] - The inventory data from September 27, 2025, to December 26, 2025, shows fluctuations, with increases and decreases in different periods. For example, the inventory increased by 160,000 tons on September 27, 2025, and decreased by 950,000 tons on October 7, 2025 [4] Group 2 - No industry investment rating is provided in the report - The core view of the report is to present the current situation and historical data of the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port, showing the trend of inventory changes [1][4]

Group 1: Core View - The customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimao Port for Mongolian coal have been operating at a high level. As of December 20, the average daily customs clearance vehicles in December were 1,472, a 9.1% increase from the average daily vehicles of 1,349 in November, and it is at the highest monthly average customs clearance level of the year [3] Group 2: Data Summary - The document shows the daily customs clearance data of Ganqimao Port on December 22 [1] - The document presents the weekly inventory data of Mongolian coal in the Ganqimao supervision area in tons, with values ranging from 150,000 to 500,000 tons [2] - The document provides the production data from September 6, 2025, to December 20, 2025, including the production volume and its month - on - month changes [5]

Group 1: Core View - The customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimao Port for Mongolian coal have been operating at a high level. As of December 20, the average daily customs clearance vehicles in December were 1,472, a 9.1% increase from the average daily vehicles in November (1,349), and it is at the highest monthly average customs clearance level of the year [3] Group 2: Data Presentation - As of December 22, it shows the VIP customer data - daily customs clearance data of Ganqimao Port [1] - The weekly inventory data of Mongolian coal in the Ganqimao supervision area is presented in a graph with inventory levels from 150,000 tons to 500,000 tons [2] - A table shows the production data from September 6, 2025, to December 20, 2025, including production volume and month - on - month changes [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant decline in coking coal futures and spot prices, with the largest drop in the 2601 contract and weaker performance in the spot market for Mongolian coal, while Australian coal shows strength [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Three main factors contributing to the decline in coking coal prices: 1. Delivery pressure from warehouse receipts, with Mongolian coal showing a theoretical cost of approximately 1050 CNY/ton while the 2601 contract is still at a discount of about 100 CNY/ton [1] 2. Increased supply of Mongolian coal coinciding with reduced iron and steel production, leading to a significant rise in the number of trucks crossing the border and a decrease in downstream demand [2] 3. Weakness in the thermal coal market, with higher-than-average temperatures leading to lower daily consumption and a negative year-on-year growth rate in thermal power generation [2] Group 2: Price Analysis - The impact of the three factors on coking coal futures pricing is notable, with a basis change leading to a drop of approximately 100 CNY/ton due to warehouse receipts [3] - Iron and steel production has decreased by about 19,000 tons since early November, with expectations of maintaining production levels above 2.3 million tons per day [3] - Current spot prices are roughly in line with last year's levels, indicating a low valuation for spot prices despite an expected inventory accumulation of 2.7 million tons by the end of December [3] Group 3: Comparative Price Movements - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal has fluctuated around 1.73, with a recent drop indicating that coking coal has decreased more than thermal coal [4] - The estimated impact of thermal coal price declines on coking coal prices ranges from 0 to 100 CNY/ton, suggesting that the primary driver of the recent price drop is not solely linked to thermal coal [4] - The significant drop in coking coal prices is attributed to warehouse factors, thermal coal price movements, and market sentiment, with respective contributions of 26.3%, 19.7%, and 53.9% [4]