Report Summary 1. Core Data - As of August 24, the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port was 2600000 tons, with a weekly incremental inventory of 20000 tons [3] - The average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles in August was around 1130, an 18% increase compared to the average of 960 vehicles in July [3] 2. Core Viewpoint - Since the coking coal price rebounded from the bottom in July, the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port has been in a continuous destocking phase [3]

Core Insights - Mongolia's total foreign trade volume reached $14.2 billion in the first seven months of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 9.0% [1] Trade Performance - Export trade amounted to $7.8 billion, down 16.1% year-on-year [1] - Import trade reached $6.5 billion, showing a growth of 10.7% year-on-year [1] - The trade surplus was $1.3 billion, which is a decrease of 55.2% compared to the previous year [1] Commodity Exports - Coal exports fell by $2.4 billion year-on-year [1] - Cashmere exports decreased by $200 million year-on-year [1] - Crude oil exports declined by $40 million year-on-year [1] - Iron ore exports dropped by $20 million year-on-year [1] - Copper concentrate exports increased by $1.1 billion year-on-year [1] - Zinc ore exports rose by $30 million year-on-year [1] Trade Partners - The top five export destinations for Mongolia were China (91.9%), Switzerland (5.0%), the United States (1.2%), Russia (0.4%), and Italy (0.2%) [1] - The top five sources of imports were China (38.7%), Russia (23.6%), Japan (12.3%), South Korea (4.4%), and the United States (4.0%) [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [1] Price Information - **Domestic Coking Coal Prices**: The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1150.00, with a weekly increase of 22.00 and a monthly increase of 50.00, but a year-on-year decrease of 34.29%. The price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1200.00, with a weekly increase of 20.00, a monthly increase of 30.00, and a year-on-year decrease of 37.50%. The price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1080.00, with a weekly increase of 10.00, a monthly decrease of 20.00, and a year-on-year decrease of 40.00%. The price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 757.00, with a daily increase of 3.00, a weekly increase of 15.00, a monthly increase of 49.00, and a year-on-year decrease of 42.43% [2]. - **International Coking Coal Prices**: The latest price of Peak Downs is 191.00, with a weekly decrease of 4.00, a monthly decrease of 2.50, and a year-on-year decrease of 51.50%. The price of Goonyella is 194.00, with a weekly decrease of 3.00, a monthly decrease of 3.50, and a year-on-year decrease of 48.50% [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of Futures Contract 05 is 960.50, with a daily increase of 13.00, a weekly increase of 43.50, a monthly increase of 150.00, and a year-on-year decrease of 44.25%. The price of Futures Contract 09 is 909.50, with a daily increase of 26.00, a weekly increase of 73.00, a monthly increase of 136.00, and a year-on-year decrease of 41.08%. The price of Futures Contract 01 is 941.50, with a daily increase of 19.50, a weekly increase of 56.00, a monthly increase of 155.00, and a year-on-year decrease of 44.34% [2]. Inventory Information - **Total Inventory**: The total inventory is 3795.39, with a weekly decrease of 9.19, a monthly decrease of 250.01, but a year-on-year increase of 12.15% [2]. - **Sub - Inventory**: Coal mine inventory is 377.18, with a weekly decrease of 32.43, a monthly decrease of 108.86, and a year-on-year increase of 31.34%. Port inventory is 304.27, with a weekly increase of 18.68, a monthly decrease of 8.75, and a year-on-year increase of 14.60%. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 789.60, with a weekly increase of 8.39, a monthly increase of 18.69, and a year-on-year increase of 6.15%. Coking plant coking coal inventory is 848.18, with a weekly increase of 39.20, a monthly increase of 29.26, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.63% [2]. Other Information - **Coking Capacity Utilization**: The coking capacity utilization rate is 72.87, with a weekly decrease of 0.30, a monthly decrease of 1.09, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.98% [2]. - **Coking Coke Inventory**: The coking coke inventory is 87.02, with a weekly decrease of 0.50, a monthly decrease of 0.10, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.74% [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis is - 149.89, with a daily decrease of 13.00, a weekly decrease of 43.50, a monthly decrease of 74.49, and a year-on-year increase of 142.09. The 09 basis is - 98.89, with a daily decrease of 26.00, a weekly decrease of 73.00, a monthly decrease of 60.49, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.12. The 01 basis is - 130.89, with a daily decrease of 19.50, a weekly decrease of 56.00, a monthly decrease of 79.49, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.50. The 5 - 9 spread is 51.00, with a daily decrease of 13.00, a weekly decrease of 29.50, a monthly increase of 14.00, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.72. The 9 - 1 spread is - 32.00, with a daily increase of 6.50, a weekly increase of 17.00, a monthly decrease of 19.00, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.78. The 1 - 5 spread is - 19.00, with a daily increase of 6.50, a weekly increase of 12.50, a monthly increase of 5.00, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.40 [2].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][13]. Core Views - The company is steadily expanding its integrated investment, construction, and operation business, with performance facing temporary pressure. In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million yuan, down 33% year-on-year [1][26]. - The Mongolian coal trade integration is progressing well, with significant certainty in trade increments. The mining volume for 2024 is projected at 50.56 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 304% from 2021 to 2024 [2][54]. - The overseas wind and hydropower profits are stable, while thermal power and photovoltaic sectors have potential for growth. The average electricity price in Croatia increased by 81% year-on-year, contributing positively to wind power project profitability [3][46]. - The company has a sufficient reserve of international engineering contracts, and the "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to catalyze performance improvement [3][4]. Summary by Sections Integrated Investment and Construction Development - The company is a comprehensive international construction enterprise benefiting from the "Belt and Road" initiative, with a focus on expanding its integrated business model [20]. - In Q1 2025, the company faced performance pressure, with a revenue of 3.65 billion yuan, down 27% year-on-year, and a net profit of 180 million yuan, down 33% year-on-year [1][26]. Mongolian Coal Trade Integration - The Mongolian coal trade integration is showing good progress, with a projected mining volume of 50.56 million tons for 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 304% from 2021 to 2024 [2][54]. - The coal trade is highly dependent on the Chinese market, with 96.5% of Mongolia's coal exports going to China in 2023 [2]. Overseas Power Projects - The average electricity price in Croatia increased to 130 euros per megawatt-hour in Q1 2025, up 81% year-on-year, indicating strong profitability for wind power projects [3][46]. - The company plans to invest in a 125MWp photovoltaic project in Bosnia, further deepening its market presence in the Middle East [3]. International Engineering Contracts - The company has a total of 14.17 billion USD in signed but uncompleted project contracts as of the end of 2024, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year [3]. - The new contract amount signed in 2024 was 1.16 billion USD, down 55.8% year-on-year, but the upcoming "Belt and Road" construction work conference in December 2024 is expected to catalyze performance [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 20.515 billion yuan, 22.233 billion yuan, and 23.624 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.52%, 8.37%, and 6.26% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.125 billion yuan, 1.309 billion yuan, and 1.420 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 7.21%, 16.32%, and 8.48% respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting focused on enhancing the connectivity between ports and hinterlands to boost coal transportation volumes in the region, specifically targeting the import of Mongolian coal through the Ganchi Maodu port [1] Group 1: Meeting Overview - The meeting was held to promote the development of a "port + hinterland" linkage mechanism, aimed at increasing the cargo volume at the port [1] - Representatives from Jiayou International Logistics Co., Ltd., a leading importer of Mongolian coal, provided detailed insights into the company's operations, including coal sources, quality, and import scale [1] Group 2: Industry Needs and Discussions - Attendees from washing and coking enterprises discussed their specific coal requirements, including necessary calorific values and sulfur content, as well as preferences for different types of Mongolian coal [1] - Participants engaged in discussions on optimizing transportation routes and reducing logistics costs, which are critical for improving operational efficiency [1] Group 3: Outcomes and Future Prospects - The meeting successfully established an efficient communication platform between coal enterprises in Wuhai and port traders, creating new opportunities for coal companies [1] - This initiative lays a solid foundation for long-term cooperation in Mongolian coal trade and significantly promotes regional economic collaboration [1]