橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-08-22 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 011. 2025年8月20日-8月26日期间，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北高降水量区域主要集中泰国 南部、柬埔寨西南部等地区，其余大部分区域降水处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强；赤道以南高降水量区域主要 分布在马来西亚东部、印尼东部地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中偏低状态，对割胶工作影响增强。 本周橡胶盘面窄幅震荡。从宏观面看，本周国内股市不断创出新高但对商品市场提振因素有限，临近09合约交割商品交易 现实端权重增大。从橡胶基本面看，本周国内外原料价格偏稳运行。国内外主产区降雨天气，对原料价格有所提振，但幅 度相对有限，橡胶成本端存支撑。本期青岛保税库一改前期去库态势，出现明显的累库，同时云南入库量较大导致库存攀 升，整体社会库库存出现增长。橡胶下游需求方面，全钢胎开工率延续走高，整体需求有支撑，库存压力不大。雪地胎市 场开始备货，半钢胎产能利用率小幅回升，但库存去化仍旧缓慢。综合来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is currently in a de-stocking cycle due to restricted new housing supply, with a notable decline in inventory across 50 key cities, but cities like Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing still face significant de-stocking challenges due to high inventory levels and extended de-stocking periods [2][4][17]. Inventory Trends - As of January 2025, the narrow inventory in 50 cities decreased to 31,093 million square meters, reflecting a 1% month-on-month decline and an 11% year-on-year decline [4][17]. - The de-stocking cycle for these cities remains high, with periods exceeding 20 months, indicating ongoing challenges in inventory reduction [4][17]. Inventory Structure by Area - In Guangzhou and Wuhan, the main inventory consists of medium-sized units (100-140 square meters), while Nanjing faces significant inventory pressure from small units (below 70 square meters) [6][12]. - Specifically, as of January 2025, Guangzhou's inventory for 100-120 square meters accounted for 21.64%, and Wuhan's for 100-140 square meters was nearly 60% [6][12]. Regional Inventory Characteristics - Guangzhou's and Wuhan's peripheral areas, such as Guangzhou's Zengcheng and Wuhan's Dongxihu, show high inventory levels, with Zengcheng at 23.12% and Dongxihu at 14.28% as of January 2025, both increasing from the previous year [8][10]. - Nanjing's Jiangning district has the highest inventory proportion at 21.2%, indicating a significant accumulation of stock in this area [10][11]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand mismatch is evident in Guangzhou and Wuhan's peripheral areas, while Nanjing's mismatch is primarily in the size segment, with small units (below 70 square meters) showing a significant oversupply [12][15]. - In Nanjing, the inventory of small hotel-style apartments reached 29.2% as of January 2025, while the transaction volume for this segment was below 10%, indicating a high likelihood of de-stocking difficulties [16][17]. Conclusion - Overall, the real estate market is still in a de-stocking phase, with Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing facing unique challenges. Guangzhou and Wuhan have high inventory in peripheral areas, while Nanjing struggles with small unit oversupply, particularly in hotel-style apartments, which may face increased de-stocking pressure in the future [17].