1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to market rumors that the customs has extended the clearance of South American soybeans by 10 - 20 days, the price of soybean meal has increased significantly with increased positions. From a fundamental perspective, the recent improvement in the export sales of US soybeans and the expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans have driven up the price of CBOT soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure is increasing, but on the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost increases, and the price of protein meal may be bottoming out [10]. - The protein meal price may be bottoming out based on the fundamental assessment [11]. - The trading strategy suggestions for both unilateral and arbitrage are to wait and see [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information** - From February 12th to February 19th, the US exported 410,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 35.65 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.83 million tons. Among them, 80,000 tons were exported to China, and the cumulative export to China in the current year was 10.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.08 million tons [10]. - As of February 21st, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 32.3%, 4.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 4.3 percentage points lower than the five - year average [10]. - As of the week of February 20th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 11.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 million tons; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 5.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons [10]. - In January, the forecast for the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - Valuation indicators include the US soybean 5 - 7 spread, soybean import profit, rapeseed import cost, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread. The overall change of these indicators is not significant, and the soybean import profit has recovered [11]. - Driving factors analysis: The increase in the estimated Brazilian production, the increase in China's procurement of US soybeans, and the reduction of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed are negative factors; the high inventory of domestic pigs and laying hens is a positive factor [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestions** - Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price** - The document provides the spot price trends of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu from 2022 to 2026 [21][22]. - **Basis of the Main Contract** - It shows the basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25]. - **Inter - monthly Spread** - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal 5 - 9 months and rapeseed meal 5 - 9 months from 2022 to 2026 are presented [27][28]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread** - The spreads between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May and soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September from 2022 to 2026 are provided [30][31]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress** - The planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are shown [36][37][39][40]. - **Weather Conditions** - The precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared with the same period of the year are presented, along with the weather conditions summary of soybean - producing areas as of February 20th [42][44][45][47]. - **US Soybean Export Progress** - The current market - year cumulative signing volume, next - year market - year cumulative signing volume, current market - year export volume to China, and next - market - year export volume to China of US soybeans are provided [53][54][56][57][59][60]. - **China's Oil Mill Pressing Situation** - The soybean and rapeseed pressing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [62][63]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation** - The monthly export volume and export volume to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are presented [65][66]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Shipment Volume to China** - The weekly and cumulative shipment volumes of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 are provided [68][69][71][72]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory** - The port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [76][77]. - **Protein Meal Inventory** - The inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are presented [79][80]. - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit** - The pressing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 are provided [82][83]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand** - The cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 are shown [86]. - **Breeding Profit** - The average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 are presented [88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward room requires greater production cuts. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may discuss the tariff issue of rapeseed products, and the current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively large, with a weak real - world fundamental situation. However, the inversion of soybean crushing margins provides some support to prices. With both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Market Review - **External Market**: This week, US soybean prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the CBOT soybean March contract closed at 1062.75 cents per bushel, up 16.75 cents per bushel from the previous week, a 1.6% increase. The March - May contract spread of CBOT soybeans was - 12 cents per bushel, up 1.5 cents per bushel from the previous week [9]. - **Domestic Market**: This week, the prices of protein meal rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the soybean meal May contract closed at 2786 yuan per ton, up 37 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.37% increase. The rapeseed meal May contract closed at 2391 yuan per ton, up 68 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 2.93% increase. Regarding spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean meal was - 90 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan per ton from the previous week; the May - September contract spread of rapeseed meal was - 60 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis of the soybean meal May contract was 354 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis of the rapeseed meal May contract was 162 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous week. The May soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 448 yuan per ton, up 48 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. Industry Information - According to USDA export sales data, as of the week ending January 1st, US soybean exports were 880,000 tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports of soybeans in the current year were 28.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.46 million tons. Among them, soybean exports to China in that week were 470,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97 million tons. - According to MYSTEEL data, as of the week ending January 2nd, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 1.08 million tons from the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons. The operating rate of sample oil mills was 50.75%, a year - on - year increase of 0.14 percentage points; the soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 1.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons. - The USDA will release the December monthly supply - demand data and quarterly inventory report on January 12th. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit China from January 13th to 17th, and this visit will focus on four major issues: trade, energy, agriculture, and international security [9]. Fundamental Assessment - The assessment of soybean meal fundamentals shows that there are both bullish and bearish factors. The 5 - month contract basis is + 354 yuan per ton, the US soybean 3 - 5 spread is - 12 cents per bushel, the soybean import crushing margin is - 21 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 448 yuan per ton. The international soybean supply is in the South American planting season, the domestic supply has high inventory but is starting to destock, the current apparent consumption is relatively high, and there are also factors such as the Sino - US trade war. The overall conclusion is that with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. Trading Strategy Recommendations - For both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures and spot market, including the spot prices of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu, the basis of the main contracts, monthly spreads, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [19][22][25][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate, with data sources from the USDA and the research center of WK Futures [34][37]. - **Weather Conditions**: Charts of precipitation observations of Brazilian, US, and Argentine soybeans compared with the same period of the year are presented, as well as a summary of the weather conditions in the main soybean - producing areas, with data sources from WORLD AG WEATHER and the research center of WK Futures [40][42]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Multiple charts show the US soybean's current and next - year market - year cumulative contract volume, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds, with data sources from the USDA, customs, and the research center of WK Futures [47][50][53]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [56]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export and Shipment to China**: Charts show the monthly export volume of Brazilian soybeans, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, with data sources from SECEX, MYSTEEL, and the research center of WK Futures [59][62][65]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [70]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts of the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [73]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Charts of the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [76]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [80]. - **Breeding Profit**: Charts of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are large, but near - month purchases are few. With expected low arrivals from February to March and pressured crushing margins, prices are expected to continue oscillating [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In December, CBOT soybean prices dropped significantly. The March contract closed at 1047.25 cents/bushel, down 98 cents/bushel (8.56% decline). In China, December saw falling prices of soybean and rapeseed meal. The May soybean meal contract closed at 2749 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton (3.37% decline), and the May rapeseed meal contract at 2365 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (2.07% decline) [10]. - **Industry Information**: According to USDA data, the estimated global soybean production in December was 422.54 million tons, up 79,000 tons from the previous month. As of December 18, US cumulative soybean exports for the current year were 26.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.05 million tons. In November, Brazil exported 4.2 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.64 million tons [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The 5 - month contract basis of soybean meal was +290 yuan/ton, and the US soybean 3 - 5 spread was - 13.5 cents/bushel. The soybean import crushing margin was - 81 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 399 yuan/ton. Overall, the market is expected to continue oscillating [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Prices**: The report presents historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong [19][20]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of the May soybean meal contract and the May rapeseed meal contract [22][23]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The report provides charts of the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [25]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Charts show the spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Charts display the planting progress, emergence rate, leaf - falling rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans [31][32][35]. - **Weather Conditions**: Charts show the precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared to the same period of the year [37][38][41]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Charts present the cumulative signing volume, next - year signing volume, exports to China, and monthly imports of soybeans in the US, as well as China's soybean and rapeseed monthly imports [46][48][51]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Charts show the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [55][56]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Charts display Brazil's monthly soybean exports, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, as well as Argentina's weekly and cumulative shipments to China [58][59][61]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts show the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills [69][70]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills [72][73]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Charts show the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas [75][76]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Charts display the cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills [79]. - **Breeding Profit**: Charts show the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [81][82].