光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格震荡走强，主力05合约收盘价1721元/吨，涨幅1.24%。现货市场 部成交有所好转，再加上淡储等需求逐步跟进，主流地区产销率昨日多数提升至 | 震荡 | | | 开始松动，局部主流地区价格小幅下调，昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1720 | | | | 元/吨、1680元/吨，日环比均下跌10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平继续下降 | | | | ，昨日行业日产量18.98万吨，日环比下降0.25万吨。需求情绪在期货盘面上涨后局 | | | | | 坚挺 | | | 100%以上，个别地区成交仍偏弱，区域间也仍有分化。近期市场焦点仍在于印标 | | | | 及我国出口政策变化预期，新增出口配额传言对市场情绪扰动明显，但消息来源需 | | | | 仔细甄别，政策需以 方为准。在新增利好因素兑现以前，盘面仍以坚挺震荡趋势 | | | | 为主，关注印标结果及出口预期等因素共振带来的阶段性行情机会，另需关注尿素 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - China's GDP maintained high growth in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, reaching 6.60536 trillion yuan. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries grew by 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively. Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, and Q2 by 5.2%. The Q2 GDP increased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - In June 2025, the decline in commodity residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow year-on-year, while prices decreased month-on-month. In first-tier cities, new and second-hand residential sales prices dropped by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively month-on-month [1] Group 2: Industry Chain Conditions Upstream - Black commodities: Prices of rebar and iron ore rose slightly [2] - Chemicals: PTA prices declined [2] Midstream - Chemicals: The operating rates of polyester and PX stabilized, and the urea operating rate increased [3] Downstream - Real estate: Sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities stabilized at the bottom [4] - Services: The number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [4] Group 3: Industry Credit Spreads - The report provides credit spread data for multiple industries as of July 2, 2025, including agriculture, mining, chemicals, and others, showing the spreads' trends over different time periods [48] Group 4: Key Industry Price Indicators - The report tracks price indicators of multiple industries as of July 15, 2025, including agriculture, energy, chemicals, and real estate, presenting the current prices, year-on-year changes, and trends over the past 5 days [49]