Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The second round of price increase for coke has been implemented, and the market is oscillating with an upward trend; for coking coal, the expected constraints on supply policies are strengthening, and the market is also oscillating with an upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 (coking coal) was 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%; the closing price of J2509 (coke) was 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 94.5 yuan/ton or 5.90% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of JM2509 was 1,636,160 lots, with an open interest of 442,089 lots, a decrease of 62,782 lots; the trading volume of J2509 was 58,919 lots, with an open interest of 40,527 lots, a decrease of 3,388 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1320 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal increased by 21 yuan/ton to 1029 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke price index increased by 100 yuan/ton to 1350 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 for different types of coking coal and J2509 for different types of coke showed various changes, and the spreads between different contract months (JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601) also changed [2]. 3.2 Price and Position Status - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The ex - warehouse prices of Shanxi primary coking coal at Jingtang Port, Australian primary coking coal at Qingdao Port, Lianyungang Port, Rizhao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1420 yuan/ton, 1425 yuan/ton, 1425 yuan/ton, 1310 yuan/ton, and 1415 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **July 22 Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1100 yuan/ton (+50); the price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1018 yuan/ton (+27); the price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 998 yuan/ton (+26) [3]. - **Position Status**: On July 22, from the position of the top 20 members of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions decreased by 26,180 lots, and short positions decreased by 42,062 lots; for the coke J2509 contract, long positions decreased by 2,834 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,295 lots [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 1, and that of coking coal is also 1 [4].

行业 工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 日期 2025 年 07 月 17 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） ...

Industry Overview Upstream - International oil prices have rebounded, while the PTA price has declined [2] Midstream - The polyester operating rate has decreased, and the coal consumption of power plants has seasonally declined to a three-year low [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities have seasonally declined to a nearly three-year low, while the number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [3] Key Events Production Industry - From January to June, the production and sales of the automotive market exceeded 15 million units, with a year-on-year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44.3% of the total new vehicle sales [1] Service Industry - The agreement on visa exemption between the Chinese government and the Malaysian government will take effect on July 17, 2025. Eligible passport holders can enter, exit, or transit the other country without a visa for up to 30 days per visit and 90 days within 180 days [1] Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The industry credit spreads of various sectors, including agriculture, mining, and chemicals, have shown different trends from last year to this week, with some sectors experiencing significant declines [48] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various commodities, such as corn, eggs, and crude oil, have shown different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the futures price is under pressure due to policy disturbances, but the slow - bull market may continue. The C2509 contract has a support level of 2250 and a pressure level of 2400. It's advisable to buy on dips as the fundamentals are acceptable despite increased downward pressure and policy uncertainties [76]. - For corn starch, the price is cost - driven. The futures price is expected to move in the range of 2600 - 2800 for the CS2509 contract, with cost providing support and weak demand capping the upside [126]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Corn - CBOT corn prices stopped falling and entered a sideways pattern. As of July 7, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 403.75 cents per bushel, down 5.25 cents per bushel week - on - week. The net long position of managed funds continued to decline, reaching - 206,463 contracts as of July 1, a decrease of 24,181 contracts week - on - week [6]. - Domestic corn futures prices were weak, and open interest decreased. As of July 7, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2326 yuan per ton, down 2.19% week - on - week; open interest was 1,563,264 contracts, down 2.36% week - on - week. Bullish factors included low imports, nearly exhausted grassroots grain stocks, high purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises, and the bottom - support from wheat's minimum purchase price. Bearish factors were the launch of imported corn auctions and the high cost - effectiveness of wheat for feed use [12]. - Corn registered warehouse receipts remained high and stable, reaching 203,732 contracts as of July 7, significantly higher than in previous years. Futures trading volume declined, with an average daily trading volume of 625,400 contracts last week [14]. - The term structure of corn futures showed a pattern of near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong. Compared with the previous two weeks, futures prices generally declined, with the 09 contract having a relatively large decline. The C09 - C11 spread continued to weaken, falling out of the previous trading range, reaching 43 yuan per ton as of July 7, a decrease of 19 yuan per ton week - on - week. Market expectations turned pessimistic, and corn prices were under downward pressure in the third quarter [18]. - Corn spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend. As of July 7, the national average corn spot price was 2432.55 yuan per ton, up 1.77% week - on - week. The futures - spot relationship deviated, with the market shifting to a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and the basis strengthened significantly, reaching 106.55 yuan per ton as of July 7, an increase of 73.26 yuan per ton week - on - week [22]. Corn Starch - Last week, corn starch futures prices fluctuated weakly, and open interest decreased. As of July 7, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2680 yuan per ton, down 1.94% week - on - week; open interest was 278,828 contracts, up 17.52% week - on - week [82]. - Corn starch registered warehouse receipts remained stable at 22,922 contracts, a decrease of 900 contracts week - on - week. Futures trading volume declined, with an average daily trading volume of 131,800 contracts last week, down 14.89% week - on - week [85]. - As of July 7, the national average price of Grade - 1 corn starch was 2893 yuan per ton, up 0.1% week - on - week; the basis was 213 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan per ton week - on - week [88]. - From the term structure, all corn starch contracts declined compared with last week, with similar decline rates, showing a near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong pattern. The spread between corn starch and corn futures contracts fluctuated within a narrow range. As of July 7, the spread of the 09 contract was 354 yuan per ton, basically unchanged from last week [94]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis Corn - USDA's June 2025/26 balance sheet lowered the beginning inventory by 1 million tons, with no adjustments to other items. Huiyiwang's May balance sheet raised the 2024 corn output by 5.6 million tons and the 2025 output by 6.47 million tons, resulting in a continued increase in ending inventory [29]. - The growth progress of US corn was normal, and the good - to - excellent rate was high. As of the week of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year [30]. - Corn imports remained at a low level. Since the second half of last year, with the tightening of import policies, China's corn imports have decreased significantly compared with previous years. In May this year, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%; cumulative imports in 2025 were 630,000 tons, a decrease of 93.8% compared with the same period last year [35]. - The number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing plants in the morning rebounded from a low level. Due to the launch of imported corn auctions and the recent decline in futures prices, grain traders' expectations for the future weakened, and their enthusiasm for selling increased. The weekly average number of remaining vehicles last week was 381 vehicles per day, a week - on - week increase of 12.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.64% [36]. - Imported corn auctions were launched, resulting in a decrease in the two - way trading activity, with sales activity still acceptable but procurement completely stagnant, and corn remained in a net rotation - out state. Since September last year, the net procurement volume has been 1.72 million tons [39]. - Port corn inventories decreased seasonally. As of June 27, 2025, the inventory at the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% from the previous week; the domestic trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 8.12% from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 3,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [41]. - Deep - processing enterprises' corn inventories began to decline again, and feed enterprises' corn inventories continued to decline slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises was 435,400 tons, a decrease of 4.66% from June 27; the available days of feed enterprises' corn inventory were 31.96 days, a decrease of 1.93% from June 27 [45]. - Deep - processing enterprises' corn consumption decreased slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises was 104,120 tons, a decrease of 0.90% from June 27; the consumption of 149 deep - processing enterprises was 117,630 tons, a decrease of 1.08% from June 27 [48]. - In May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 2.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Among them, the output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased by 7.3% and 8.1% year - on - year respectively, while the output of concentrated feed decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [54]. - In May, the sales volume of pig feed continued to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a relatively large increase [55]. - Pig prices fluctuated upward, but the pig - raising profit was limited. As of July 4, 2025, the average price of the top - three grades of white - striped pork was 19.2 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 1.54%; the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 139 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 84.27% [57]. - The pig - to - grain ratio stopped falling and rebounded. As of July 7, 2025, the Steel Union's pig - to - grain ratio was 6.10, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%; the NDRC's pig - to - grain ratio was 6.21, a week - on - week increase of 1.31% [61]. - Wheat prices remained stable, and the wheat - corn price spread remained low, leading to an increase in the substitution ratio of wheat for feed use. As of July 7, 2025, the wheat spot price was 2442 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the wheat - corn price spread was 0, a year - on - year decrease of 87.04% [64]. Corn Starch - The spot price spread between corn starch and corn remained stable. As of July 7, 2025, the spread in Suihua, Heilongjiang was 440 yuan per ton, unchanged from June 30; the spread in Weifang, Shandong was 460 yuan per ton, unchanged from June 30 [99]. - Corn starch enterprises' operating rates and output remained stable. As of July 4, 2025, the operating rate of corn starch enterprises was 51.20%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%; the output was 264,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% [102]. - Corn starch enterprises' losses continued to narrow. As of July 7, 2025, the profit of corn starch enterprises in Hebei was 13 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan from June 30; the profit in Heilongjiang was - 111 yuan per ton, an increase of 9 yuan from June 30 [109]. - Corn starch inventories increased slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the total inventory of major starch enterprises nationwide was 1.313 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%; the inventory in Heilongjiang was 613,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.82% [113]. - The demand for corn starch decreased significantly. As of July 4, 2025, the提货 volume of major corn starch enterprises was 260,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00%; the operating rate of F55 fructose syrup was 55.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.67% [119]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook Corn - As of July 5, the harvesting rate of Brazil's first - season corn was 97.2%, up from 95.4% last week; the harvesting rate of the second - season corn was 27.7%, up from 17% last week [73]. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,491,062 tons, up from 1,380,943 tons the previous week. So far this crop year, the cumulative US corn export inspection volume was 56,446,111 tons, compared with 43,523,109 tons in the same period of the previous year [73]. - The USDA announced that 13，500 tons of corn had been sold to Mexico, with 2,900 tons scheduled for delivery in the 2024/2025 market year and 10,600 tons in the 2025/2026 market year [73]. - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil shipped a total of 369,500 tons of corn, with an average daily shipping volume of 18,500 tons per day, a decrease of 56.57% compared with July last year [73]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, CBOT corn futures rose, with the benchmark contract up 2.3%, rebounding from an eight - and - a - half - month low last week [73]. - Hebei launched the minimum purchase price for wheat, and the成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased. On July 2, 2025, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced the launch of the 2025 wheat minimum purchase price implementation plan in Hebei. The成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased from 97% on July 1 to 54% on July 8 [75]. - It is expected that the slow - bull market will continue. Although the recent corn futures prices have weakened and fallen below the previous support level, while the spot prices have risen slightly but may have reached a peak. The basis has strengthened significantly. Considering the bullish and bearish factors, the C2509 contract is expected to have a support level of 2250 and a pressure level of 2400 [76]. Corn Starch - Due to weak downstream demand, the industry operating rate remained low. It is expected that the operating rate in the Northeast region will decrease significantly next week. From July 3 - 9, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from last week; the operating rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% from last week [125]. - The domestic corn starch spot market price continued to be strong, with fewer low - end transactions. Due to the low supply of raw corn and increasing costs, the cost side strongly supported the price. However, due to weak downstream demand, high - price sales were difficult, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain stable at a high level [125]. - Corn starch futures prices fluctuated weakly, the spot price was stable, enterprises' losses continued to narrow, the operating rate was low, downstream demand was insufficient, and inventories increased slightly. The corn starch market is cost - driven and generally follows the corn market. The CS2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2600 - 2800 [125][126].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for coke is broad - range fluctuations [1] - The investment rating for coking coal is leading by expectation and broad - range fluctuations [2] Group 2: Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamental data, price, and position information of coking coal and coke, including futures prices, spot prices, basis, and spreads, to assist in understanding the market trends of these two commodities [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: JM2509 closed at 891 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (1.02%); J2509 closed at 1424.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.14%). JM2509 had a trading volume of 723,095 lots and a position of 544,987 lots, with a decrease of 4,404 lots; J2509 had a trading volume of 16,389 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: There were no changes in most spot prices of coking coal and coke, but some showed minor fluctuations. For example, the price of Fengjing converted to RMB decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the cost of Meng3 warehouse receipt increased by 21 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke also showed certain changes. For instance, the basis of JM2509 for Meng5 decreased by 52.0 yuan/ton, and the basis of J2509 for Shanxi quasi - first arrival price decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton [2] Price and Position - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The ex - warehouse prices of coking coal in northern ports were as follows: 1250 yuan/ton for Shanxi coking coal in Jingtang Port, 1215 yuan/ton for Australian coking coal in Qingdao Port, 1215 yuan/ton in Lianyungang Port, 1130 yuan/ton in Rizhao Port, and 1205 yuan/ton in Tianjin Port [2] - **July 8th Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu increased by 15 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Meng5) in Shaheyi increased by 4 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Meng3) in Shaheyi increased by 21 yuan/ton [3] - **Position Situation**: On July 8th, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 4,491 lots, and the short positions decreased by 5,293 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 180 lots, and the short positions decreased by 59 lots [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [4]

2025 年 7 月 3 日 品 研 究 焦炭：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 焦煤：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 漆跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 843.5 | 29 | 3.56% | | | | J2509 | 1442 | 53.5 | 3. 85% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1189983 | 529227 | -35195 | | | | J2509 | 30166 | 49728 | 162 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1180 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1170 | 涨跌(元/吨) 10 | | | 焦煤 | 全泉蒙5精煤自提价 吕梁低硫主焦 | 934 1128 | 934 1113 | 0 15 | | | | ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 06 月 27 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 6月20日 | 张跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月23日 | 6月23日 | 胀跌 | 单位 | 张跌幅 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -7.2% | 77.01 | -5.53 | POY150/48价格 | 60 | 布伦特原油(8月) | 71.48 | 7225 | 7165 | 0.8% | 美元/桶 | -7.2% | 50 | WTI原油(8月) | 68.51 | 73.84 | -5.33 | FDY150/96价格 | 7515 | 0.7% | 7465 | | | 40 | CFR日本石脑油 | 646 | -4 | -0.6% | D ...

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月20日 曹剑兰 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行压何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 798.0 | 795.5 | 2.5 | 0.31% | | | 原木2509 | 794.0 | 795.0 | -1.0 | -0.13% | | | 原木2511 | 791 ...

焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 2025 年 6 月 17 日 焦炭：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 795.5 | 21 | 2. 71% | | | | J2509 | 1371 | 21.5 | 1.59% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1028795 | 579001 | 23873 | | | | J2509 | 30828 | 51871 | -1247 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 860 | 878 | -18 | | | | 吕梁低疏主焦 | 1 ...