Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In the week of January 26 - 30, 2026, US soybean futures prices fluctuated. The price increase was due to a weak US dollar and dry - hot weather in Argentina, while the decline was caused by the strong harvest pressure in Brazil, a mediocre US soybean export sales report, a rebound of the US dollar, and improved weather in Argentina. There was no report of large - scale US soybean export orders this week. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 30, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans fell 0.3% and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal fell 2.17% [1]. - In the same week, domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean No.1 futures prices fluctuated and reached a new phased high. The price movement of soybean meal was affected by a slight increase in US soybeans (due to dry - hot weather in Argentina), a strong rebound in domestic rapeseed meal (due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade), and the sentiment of the domestic commodity market. The price movement of soybean No.1 was mainly affected by the domestic commodity market sentiment. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 30, the main m2605 contract of soybean meal rose 0.58%, and the main a2605 contract of soybean No.1 rose 0.41% [2]. - Next week (February 2 - 6, 2026), it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will likely continue to move within a range. For soybean meal, the dry - hot weather in the Argentine production area has eased but there are still concerns, which is expected to support the soybean price. The expected harvest in Brazil will limit the price rebound space, and attention should be paid to the harvest progress. In addition, attention should also be paid to the US soybean export situation. For soybean No.1, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The northeast production area is expected to gradually enter the holiday mode, while the sales area still has pre - holiday stocking demand. The futures price should be monitored in terms of the overall commodity market sentiment and policy sentiment [7]. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean net sales decreased month - on - month, which is a negative factor. In the week of January 22, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipment was about 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 89%. The cumulative export shipment was about 20.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 38%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 820,000 tons (compared to about 2.45 million tons the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 0 (compared to 900,000 tons the previous week). The total was about 820,000 tons (compared to about 2.46 million tons the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 230,000 tons (compared to 1.3 million tons the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 9.65 million tons [2]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week - on - week, which is a positive factor. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for March 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - The Brazilian soybean harvest is faster than last year, and the yield is slightly increased, which is a negative factor. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 4.9%, compared to 2% the previous week and 3.9% the same period last year. The harvest in Mato Grosso is progressing smoothly, the harvest speed in Paraná has slightly increased, and the harvest work in other states is also advancing or has started. The estimated 2025/26 soybean yield in Brazil is 181 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons compared to the forecast on December 22 [2]. - The weather forecast for the main soybean - producing areas in South America shows that in the next two weeks (January 31 - February 13, 2026), precipitation in the main Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be uneven, with some areas having more precipitation, some less, and some being normal. In terms of temperature, most areas will be normal, but the temperature in Rio Grande do Sul will be higher. In the main Argentine soybean - producing areas, precipitation will be less (with an increase around February 6 but then a decrease), and the temperature will be high first and then low. Currently, the dry - hot weather in the Argentine production area has eased from February 7 - 9, but there are still concerns later. There are also concerns about dry - hot weather in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, so the weather in the production areas still has some positive impacts. Attention should be paid to the persistence of adverse weather [4]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, mainly due to an increase in basis trading. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 310,000 tons, compared to about 190,000 tons the previous week [5]. - The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, affected by pre - holiday stocking. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 194,000 tons, compared to about 188,000 tons the previous week [5]. - The basis of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 349 yuan/ton, compared to about 347 yuan/ton the previous week and about 349 yuan/ton the same period last year [5]. - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 820,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 111% [5]. - The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to increase next week. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.3 million tons (compared to 2.1 million tons the previous week and 210,000 tons the same period last year due to the Spring Festival holiday), and the operating rate was about 63% (compared to 58% the previous week and 6% the same period last year). Next week (January 31 - February 6, 2026), the soybean crushing volume in oil mills is expected to be about 2.37 million tons (compared to 470,000 tons the same period last year due to the Spring Festival holiday), and the operating rate will be 65% (compared to 13% the same period last year) [5]. Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Market - The price of soybean No.1 is stable with a slight upward trend. In the northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas is in the range of 4,300 - 4,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the inner - pass areas, the purchase price of clean soybeans is in the range of 4,980 - 5,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 - 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of northeast edible soybeans is in the range of 4,720 - 4,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6]. - Farmers in the northeast production area are reluctant to sell, and the state - reserve purchase is gradually completed. The spot price in the northeast production area remains high and firm, with less remaining grain, and farmers are still reluctant to sell. The soybean auctions on various platforms have been well - traded. Some branches of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation have announced the completion of the direct purchase of soybeans from individual farmers in 2025 [6]. - The soybean market in the inner - pass areas has pre - holiday restocking demand. Traders in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and other places have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing, mainly for rigid - demand restocking before the Spring Festival [6]. - The demand in the sales areas is still supported by the Spring Festival factor. Although the downstream market's acceptance of the rising price of northeast soybeans is average and the trading is slow, as the Spring Festival approaches, the market trading may improve [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The supply - side has stable blast furnace profits and rising disk profits, so steel mills may continue to increase production with a low probability of significant reduction. The demand - side is affected by winter cold, with seasonal weakening of rebar demand and inventory accumulation, and hot - rolled coil demand may slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron Ore: Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the downside is supported by the healthy fundamentals of steel, good profits of steel mills, and inventory replenishment expectations. Additionally, attention should be paid to the impact of rainy seasons in Australia and Brazil on shipments. It is expected that the price decline space is limited [23]. - Coal and Coke: Coking coal is in a pattern of "strong spot, weak disk" with a high basis. Without strong policy expectations to boost the disk, as winter storage enters the second half, the demand sustainability is limited, and the spot price of coking coal may face downward pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, if there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic supply recovery" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [36]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. The upper limit of silicon - manganese is restricted by high inventory, and the fundamentals of silicon - iron are slightly better than those of silicon - manganese. In the short term, ferroalloys will fluctuate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [52]. - Soda Ash: The short - term commodity sentiment is warming up, which may drive some low - valued varieties. If the disk rises, there is some inventory replenishment space for middle and downstream players, but the demand is average with limited elasticity. In terms of fundamentals, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the oversupply expectation is intensifying. The export of soda ash remains high, which alleviates the domestic pressure to some extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [66]. - Glass: Although the daily melting of float glass has dropped to a certain low level, the demand reality and expectation are also weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines for cold - repair and ignition, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. Currently, the high inventory of the middle reaches of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists [90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3199 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from January 26), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3330 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The basis and month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4][10][12]. - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day. For example, 01 rebar/01 iron ore was 4, and 01 rebar/01 coke was 2 [20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 757 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from January 26). The basis also increased, and the prices of various iron ore varieties such as Rizhao PB powder also rose [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the 45 - port desilting volume decreased, the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, the 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel mill inventory increased, and the available days of 247 steel mills also increased [30]. Coal and Coke - **Price Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was - 178 (down 12.5 from January 26). The disk coking profit increased, and the ratios such as the main ore - coke ratio also changed [39]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions remained relatively stable on January 27, 2026, with some slight changes in the import profit of different types of coal [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - Iron**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the basis of silicon - iron in Ningxia increased, the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and动力煤 decreased slightly, and the number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased [53]. - **Silicon - Manganese**: On January 27, 2026, the basis of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, the month - spreads changed slightly, the spot prices in various regions remained stable, and the prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts increased slightly [54][56]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding changes [67]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the overall inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, restricting the price [66]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis changed [91]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the period from January 17 - 23, 2026 [92].

郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,726.7 | 0.76% | 565 | 4,225 | -176 | 0.13 | 0.12 | | | EC2604 | 1,200.2 | 5.46% | 43,172 | 41,690 | 541 | 1.04 | 0.75 | | | EC2606 | 1,447.6 | 3.47% | 4,483 | 7,324 | 1,533 | 0.61 | 0.77 | | | | 本期 | | 2026/1/26 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | SCFIS：欧洲航线 | | 1,859.31 | | | 点 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Next week (01.19 - 01.23), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures may rebound. For soybean meal, although the January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada consultations had a bearish impact on prices, the market has already factored them in. After these events, there is no further negative news, so the soybean meal price is expected to rebound from a low level. For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price depends on the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - **US Soybean Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), US soybean futures prices first declined due to the bearish USDA report and then rose because of Chinese purchases and the increase in US soybean oil prices (due to the possible formulation of 2026 biofuel blending quotas in March in the US). From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 0.61%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 4.58% [2]. - **Fundamental Factors**: - **Chinese Purchases**: From January 12 to January 16, the cumulative large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations were about 1.4 million tons (mostly for 2025/26 delivery, and a few for 2026/27 delivery) [2]. - **USDA Export Sales Report**: In the week of January 8, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipments were about 1.64 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 47% and a year - on - year increase of about 16%; the cumulative export shipments were about 17.98 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 42%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 2.06 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 10,000 tons (0 in the previous week), with a total of about 2.07 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 1.22 million tons (0.47 million tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 8.12 million tons [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of the week of January 16, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - **USDA Reports**: The January USDA monthly supply - demand report showed an increase in the ending stocks of US and Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26, while those of Argentina and China remained unchanged. According to the USDA quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.25 billion bushels. These two reports had a short - term bearish impact on soybean prices [2]. - **South American Weather Forecast**: According to the January 17 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 18 - February 1), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be basically normal. In Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be higher in some periods (January 24 - February 1). Currently, the weather in the Argentine产区 has a bullish impact and needs to be monitored [2][3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, mainly affected by the bearish January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada trade consultations. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) had a weekly decline of 2.12% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, with more long - term basis contracts traded. As of the week of January 16, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 670,000 tons, compared with about 360,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 186,000 tons, compared with about 174,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 372 yuan/ton, compared with about 344 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 247 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 9, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 13% and a year - on - year increase of about 66% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to rise next week. As of the week of January 16, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 1.99 million tons (1.77 million tons in the previous week and 2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (49% in the previous week and 68% in the same period last year). Next week (January 17 - January 23), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.2 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 61% (58% in the same period last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold at an average transaction price of 3,812 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 170 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean futures prices fluctuated, mainly affected by the bearish atmosphere in the soybean market, but the stable and slightly upward spot price provided support. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) had a weekly decline of 1.23% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Prices**: In Northeast China, the net grain purchase price of soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean grain passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In inland areas, the net grain purchase price of soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,640 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **Farmer and Market Sentiment**: In the Northeast production area, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the market is cautious. Many grass - roots farmers still expect prices to rise and ask for high prices. Most traders are cautious about purchasing and consume their inventories, and the speed of goods flowing to the market is slow. High prices suppress transactions, and there is a situation of "high prices but no trading" in some markets. In the sales areas, the soybean price increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance is low. Many dealers said that the loading price at the origin increased, the arrival cost continued to rise, and the selling price was adjusted accordingly. However, limited by the low acceptance of the downstream market, the price increase was smaller than that at the origin. The new demand for terminal soy products was limited, which suppressed the overall trading speed of the market [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: The 2603 contract of corn resumed rising, with near - month contracts leading the increase and forward contracts following. The spot market is supported by pre - holiday stocking. The domestic average corn price is 2321 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The overall view is that corn is in an oscillatory state. Short - term long positions should pay attention to the pressure at the previous high, and medium - and long - term investors should focus on the strong performance of surrounding commodities. [2] - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday due to strong domestic demand and a sharp rise in soybean oil futures. The U.S. soybean single - week net sales were 2.0619 million tons, which is positive. Domestically, protein meal continued to weaken, with rapeseed meal falling more than soybean meal. The overall view is that soybean meal is oscillatory, and a double - selling strategy is recommended. Rapeseed meal should pay attention to Canada's visit to China, and an option double - buying strategy is suggested. [2] - Oils: BMD palm oil fell on Thursday, following the decline in the surrounding market. CBOT soybean oil rose sharply, and Canadian rapeseed prices increased. The domestic oil market was weak but rose sharply at night, with rapeseed oil leading the increase. The overall view is that oils are oscillatory, and a strategy of selling put options is recommended. [2] - Eggs: The egg futures rebounded on Thursday, with the 2603 contract rising 1.96%. The spot price of eggs increased slightly. Terminal demand is stable, and the overall view is that eggs are oscillatory and slightly bullish. Short - term long positions can be moderately participated in, and the influence of funds and sentiment on the market should be continuously monitored. [2][3] - Pigs: The 2603 contract of live pigs rebounded during the session on Thursday and then declined in the afternoon. The spot price of live pigs was relatively stable. Terminal demand is stable, and the overall view is that live pigs are oscillatory and slightly bullish. Long positions should be held cautiously, and short - term market sentiment changes and the impact of spot prices on the futures market should be monitored. [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - On the 12th noon, MPOB announced the Malaysian palm oil data for December. The production was 1.83 million tons, a 5.46% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.3165 million tons, an 8.52% month - on - month increase; apparent demand was 331,000 tons, slightly less than the previous month; and inventory was 3.05 million tons, all within market expectations. The 1 - 2 month production is expected to decline seasonally, and with India's festival stocking demand approaching, Malaysian palm oil may gradually reach a high - inventory inflection point. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's slight increase in export LEVY and the implementation of the U.S. RVO policy. [4] Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given. [5][6][8][9][12] Contract Basis - The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these bases is given. [14][15][18][20][25] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of DCE in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of DCE in 2023. [27] - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times, and her team has won many awards. [27] - Kong Hailan, an analyst for eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures, has a master's degree in economics. Her team has won many awards, and she has been interviewed by many mainstream media. [27]

航运日报 | 2026-01-15 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK4价格1695/2730,WEEK5价格1510/2420；HPL 1月下半月船期报 价1585/2535，2月上半月船期报价1585/2535. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 1月下半月船期报价1580/2640；ONE 1月下半月船期报价1680/2635,2月上半月船期 报价1680/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1733/3036. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1859/3293，2月份船期价格1859/3293；EMC1月下半月船 期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2633-2730美元/FEU。 地缘端：美国特使威特科夫表示，我们正式宣布启动特朗普关于结束加沙冲突"二十点计划"的第二阶段。第二阶 段将在加沙建立一个过渡性的巴勒斯坦技术官僚政府，并开启加沙地带的全面去军事化与重建工作。美国期望哈 马斯完全履行其义务。美国期望哈马斯立即归还最后一名遇难人质，否则将面临严重后果。 静态供给：交付现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE: Supply is expected to increase marginally, and demand enters the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. There is a positive feedback in the spot market, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored [1]. - PP: Both supply and demand are weak. There are many maintenance plans, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in January. The balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures are oscillating strongly. The inland price is expected to oscillate, and the port price is restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of MTO devices [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but it is driven by the strong performance of styrene and oil prices. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to look for shorting opportunities for EB03 and narrow the EB processing fee when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - The rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. The raw material price provides support at the lower end, and the weak demand suppresses the upper end. Attention should be paid to the raw material output in Thailand [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production load adjustment and inventory situation of soda ash plants [9]. - Glass: The price is expected to continue to weaken in the short term and can be treated bearishly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - The oil price is generally strong due to the instability in Iran, but the increase is limited by the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Middle East situation [11]. LPG Industry No specific views provided in the report other than price and inventory data. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for PX5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - PTA: The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 5,000 - 5,300, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for TA5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4,000 for EG2605, do a short - long spread for EG5 - 9 at a high level, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at a high level [16]. - Short fiber: The price is driven by raw materials in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally and narrow the PF processing fee when it is high [16]. - Bottle chips: The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [18]. - PVC: The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the short - term price fluctuates emotionally. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions [18]. Urea Industry - The urea price is expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as L59, PP59, and LP05 [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 11.41%, and PP trader inventory decreased by 5.28% [1]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.52%, and PP装置开工率 decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as MA59 and regional spreads [3]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.73%, and port inventory decreased by 6.63% [3]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 increased by 0.54%, and some downstream device开工率 decreased [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as EB - BZ [5]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and the styrene port inventory decreased significantly [5]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of natural rubber increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as the 9 - 1 spread [6]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.74% [6]. - **Production and开工率**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries decreased in November, and the开工率 of automobile tires changed [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash were generally stable, and there were changes in futures prices and spreads [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.25% [9]. - **Supply and开工率**: The开工率 and supply of soda ash remained at a high level, and the glass melting volume and产能利用率 decreased slightly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as Brent - WTI [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased, and there were changes in cracking spreads [11]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The LPG futures prices changed slightly, and the spot price increased. There were changes in various spreads such as PG02 - 03 [14]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.94%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.41% [14]. - **开工率**: The upstream main refinery开工率 increased by 2.49%, and the downstream PDH开工率 increased by 0.68% [14]. Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed, and there were changes in various spreads such as PX - naphtha [16]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased [16]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of PX, PTA, and polyester products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda decreased slightly, and there were changes in various spreads such as V2605 - V2601 [18]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC increased [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [18]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures price increased, and the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. There were changes in various spreads and basis [19]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.53%, and the port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the agricultural demand in some regions increased [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Maersk lowered the WEEK5 quotation, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The final trading day of the EC2602 contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures is February 9, 2026, and its delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - period delivery settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Currently, the valuation of the 02 contract is taking shape, but it will be affected by Maersk's next - week quotation and the price correction of the PA Alliance [7][8]. - The policy of canceling the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase in the near future. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can rise significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 13, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures was 62,795.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 54,738.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1720.40, 1199.70, 1413.50, 1529.90, 1107.40, and 1372.10 respectively [10]. 2. Spot Price - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2218 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 3128 dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1323.98 points [10]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. From 2026 - 2029, there are clear delivery plans for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK3/4/5 were 318,100/361,000/306,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February was 277,300 TEU, and there were 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings. The average weekly capacity in March was 281,600 TEU, and there were 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared with September and an increase of 8% compared with the same month in 2024. From January to October, the cumulative exports to the European market were about 91 GW, an increase of 8% compared with the previous year. After excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of photovoltaic modules from China [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 1 more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 8%; the total arrival volume is about 47.9 million cubic meters, 7.05 million cubic meters more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 17% [2] - The 01 contract continues to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remains poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, and the upside is limited. Overall, the contradictions are insufficient, and the upward and downward drivers are limited. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On January 9, the price of log 2601 was 742.0, unchanged from January 8; log 2603 was 774.5, down 4.0 from January 8 with a decline of - 0.51%; log 2605 was 787.0, down 2.0 with a decline of - 0.25%; log 2607 was 798.0, down 2.5 with a decline of - 0.31%. The basis of the main contract was - 34.5, up 4.0 from January 8 [1] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged from January 8 to January 9. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars with a decline of - 1.79%; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged [1] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 12, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.976, unchanged from January 11. The import theoretical cost was 755.70 yuan, down 13.87 yuan from January 11 with a decline of - 2% [1] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - Port inventory: On November 30, it was 191.4 million cubic meters, up 2.2 million cubic meters from October 31 with an increase of 1.16% [1] - Departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea: The number of departing ships was 52.0, up 3.0 from the previous period with an increase of 6.12% [1] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 2, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 267 million cubic meters, up 13 million cubic meters from December 26 with an increase of 5.12%. In Shandong, it was 195.00 million cubic meters, up 9.8 million cubic meters from December 26 with an increase of 5.29% [1] 3.5 Demand (Weekly) - As of January 2, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 5.65 million cubic meters, down 0.18 million cubic meters from the previous week with a decline of - 3%. In Shandong, it was 2.89 million cubic meters, up 0.10 million cubic meters with an increase of 4%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.17 million cubic meters, down 0.27 million cubic meters with a decline of - 11% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views of the Reports 1. **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - Presents detailed data on the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios, including IF, IH, IC, and IM [1] 2. **Interest Rate Futures Basis and Spread Daily Report** - Provides data on the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL interest rate futures, along with their changes and percentiles since listing [2] 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - Future market may focus on the impact of US economic data on Fed policy and geopolitical situation in South America. Precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility in January. Suggestions include long - position gold allocation on dips, light long - position silver trading with option hedging, and long - position platinum trading due to its strong external market performance [3] 4. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - Shows the increase in settlement price indices and Shanghai export container freight rates. Futures prices of container shipping indices have also risen, and there are changes in fundamental data such as supply, port indicators, and overseas economic indicators [7][8] Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Spread Data**: Includes IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' spot - futures spreads, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios, with specific values, changes, and quantiles [1] 2. **Interest Rate Futures Basis and Spread Daily Report** - **Basis Data**: TS, TF, T, and TL futures' basis values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2] - **Cross - Period Spread Data**: Cross - period spreads of different contracts and their changes and percentiles [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread Data**: Cross - variety spreads among different interest rate futures and their changes and percentiles [2] 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Futures Closing Price**: Domestic and foreign precious metals futures closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of various precious metals, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Basis**: Basis values of different precious metals, price changes, and 1 - year quantiles [3] - **Ratio**: Ratios of different precious metals, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes and percentage changes [3] - **Inventory and Position**: Inventory and position data of precious metals, changes, and percentage changes [3] 4. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Settlement Price Index**: SCFIS for European and US West routes, with price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI comprehensive index, European, US West, and US East routes, with price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices of different container shipping index contracts, price changes, percentage changes, and basis value changes of the main contract [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply, Shanghai port indicators (quasi - arrival rate, berthing situation), monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators (euro - zone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI, OECD leading indicators), with their changes and percentage changes [7] - **Spot Quotation**: Spot freight rates of Shanghai - Europe routes for different shipping companies, price changes, and percentage changes [8]