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黑色产业链日报-20260327
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 09:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing down; the steel consumption in the automotive industry has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure investment is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The iron ore market is driven by events, with a "near - strong, far - weak" fundamental characteristic. Prices are supported by costs and tight spot supplies but are suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations [26] - The coking coal and coke market fluctuates with energy expectations. The price increase is due to thermal coal expectations rather than its own fundamentals, and it is difficult to continue rising away from fundamentals [44] - The ferroalloy market has strong cost support at the bottom. The production of ferrosilicon is increasing, while silicomanganese maintains low production. The inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [58] - The soda ash market has high daily production and continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space needs inventory accumulation to open [71] - The glass market has a continued cold - repair expectation, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high inventory in the middle reaches and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [96] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Macro Data** - From January to February, the new construction area of real estate was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the decline trend is stabilizing [4] - From January to February, the automobile production was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. In January, the single - month steel consumption was 1.01577 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. In February, the single - month steel consumption was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - In February, the completed infrastructure investment increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption for railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 0% and 31.1% [8] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3173, 3124, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3311, 3299, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [11] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also showed certain changes on March 27, 2026 [16] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis** - The iron ore market is event - driven, with a complex mix of long and short factors. The macro internal and external demand momentum is weak, the supply and shipment are marginally recovering, and the rising fuel cost provides support. The resumption of production by steel mills drives the increase in hot metal production, and the structural shortage of port inventory is the core driver. The fundamentals show a "near - strong, far - weak" characteristic [26] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 769.5, 812, and 788 yuan/ton respectively [27][31] - The basis and spot prices of different iron ore varieties also changed [31] - **Fundamental Data** - On March 27, 2026, the daily average hot metal production was 231,090 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.1317 million tons, the apparent demand for five major steel products was 8.88 million tons, etc. [39] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis** - The coking coal and coke market fluctuates with energy expectations. The price increase is due to thermal coal expectations rather than its own fundamentals. Domestic production is increasing, inventory is close to the same - period level, hot metal production and steel mill profits are lower than in previous years, and there is great inventory pressure at the Mongolian coal port. It is difficult for prices to continue rising away from fundamentals [44] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the price differences between different coking coal and coke contracts, as well as the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions, showed certain changes [45][46][47] Ferroalloy - **Market Analysis** - The ferroalloy market has strong cost support at the bottom. The Australian hurricane has disrupted the shipment of manganese ore. The price - holding by miners and the strengthening of coking coal provide bottom support. The production of ferrosilicon is increasing, while silicomanganese maintains low production. The inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [58] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the basis, price differences between contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed certain changes [59][61][63] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - The soda ash market has high daily production and continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, but there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those in the futures - cash market, but the price increase space is limited due to limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open [71] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1229, 1310, and 1360 yuan/ton respectively, and the price differences between contracts also changed [72][75] Glass - **Market Analysis** - The glass market has a continued cold - repair expectation, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high inventory in the middle reaches is a risk concern. The expected return of supply and the high middle - stream inventory limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [96] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1041, 1179, and 1273 yuan/ton respectively, and the price differences between contracts and the basis also changed [97]
合成橡胶早报-20260319
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 02:14
Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: March 19, 2026 [3] - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [8] BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures - Closing price of the BR main contract on March 18 was 15,260, down 270 from the previous day and 355 from the previous week [4] - Open interest on March 18 was 66,374, down 42 from the previous day and up 40,054 from the previous week [4] - Trading volume on March 18 was 272,822, up 8,875 from the previous day and down 1,825 from the previous week [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on March 18 was 47,650, up 490 from the previous day and 1,330 from the previous week [4] - The virtual - real ratio on March 18 was 6.96, with no daily change and an increase of 4 from the previous week [4] - The butadiene rubber basis on March 18 was 40, up 70 from the previous day [4] - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis on March 18 was 440, up 170 from the previous day and 755 from the previous week [4] - The 05 - 06 spread on March 18 was 250, with no daily change and a decrease of 35 from the previous week [4] - The 06 - 07 spread on March 18 was - 20, down 20 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [4] - The RU - BR spread on March 18 was 1,140, down 130 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week [4] - The NR - BR spread on March 18 was - 2,155, with a change not clearly stated from the previous day and a decrease of 260 from the previous week [4] Spot - Shandong market price on March 18 was 15,300, down 200 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [4] - Transfar market price on March 18 was 15,300, down 200 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on March 18 was 15,800, with no daily change and an increase of 200 from the previous week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on March 18 was 2,100, with no daily change and an increase of 350 from the previous week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on March 18 was 2,275, with no daily change and an increase of 350 from the previous week [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on March 18 was - 1,996, down 149 from the previous day and 108 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on March 18 was - 1,503, down 144 from the previous day and 2,410 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on March 18 was 1,694, up 123 from the previous day and 2,137 from the previous week [4] BD (Butadiene) Spot - Shandong market price on March 18 was 14,800, down 50 from the previous day and up 400 from the previous week [4] - Jiangsu market price on March 18 was 15,250, with no daily change [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on March 18 was 15,200, with no daily change and an increase of 200 from the previous week [4] - CFR China price on March 18 was 2,050, with no daily change and an increase of 250 from the previous week [4] Profit - Ethylene cracking profit data was not available [4] - Carbon four extraction profit on March 17 was 4,814, and data on March 18 was not available [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on March 18 was 4,840, down 210 from the previous day and up 770 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on March 18 was - 821, up 54 from the previous day and down 1,933 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on March 18 was 191, up 1,678 from the previous day and 5,356 from the previous week [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on March 18 was - 388, with no daily change and an increase of 38 from the previous week [4] - ABS production profit data was partially not available [4] - SBS production profit on March 18 was - 1,025, with no daily change and a decrease of 155 from the previous week [4]
豆粕:暂无驱动,或仍以低位区间运行为主,豆一:现货稳中偏强,盘面跟随市场情绪波动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-01 07:28
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In the week of January 26 - 30, 2026, US soybean futures prices fluctuated. The price increase was due to a weak US dollar and dry - hot weather in Argentina, while the decline was caused by the strong harvest pressure in Brazil, a mediocre US soybean export sales report, a rebound of the US dollar, and improved weather in Argentina. There was no report of large - scale US soybean export orders this week. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 30, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans fell 0.3% and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal fell 2.17% [1]. - In the same week, domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean No.1 futures prices fluctuated and reached a new phased high. The price movement of soybean meal was affected by a slight increase in US soybeans (due to dry - hot weather in Argentina), a strong rebound in domestic rapeseed meal (due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade), and the sentiment of the domestic commodity market. The price movement of soybean No.1 was mainly affected by the domestic commodity market sentiment. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 30, the main m2605 contract of soybean meal rose 0.58%, and the main a2605 contract of soybean No.1 rose 0.41% [2]. - Next week (February 2 - 6, 2026), it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will likely continue to move within a range. For soybean meal, the dry - hot weather in the Argentine production area has eased but there are still concerns, which is expected to support the soybean price. The expected harvest in Brazil will limit the price rebound space, and attention should be paid to the harvest progress. In addition, attention should also be paid to the US soybean export situation. For soybean No.1, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The northeast production area is expected to gradually enter the holiday mode, while the sales area still has pre - holiday stocking demand. The futures price should be monitored in terms of the overall commodity market sentiment and policy sentiment [7]. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean net sales decreased month - on - month, which is a negative factor. In the week of January 22, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipment was about 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 89%. The cumulative export shipment was about 20.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 38%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 820,000 tons (compared to about 2.45 million tons the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 0 (compared to 900,000 tons the previous week). The total was about 820,000 tons (compared to about 2.46 million tons the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 230,000 tons (compared to 1.3 million tons the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 9.65 million tons [2]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week - on - week, which is a positive factor. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for March 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - The Brazilian soybean harvest is faster than last year, and the yield is slightly increased, which is a negative factor. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 4.9%, compared to 2% the previous week and 3.9% the same period last year. The harvest in Mato Grosso is progressing smoothly, the harvest speed in Paraná has slightly increased, and the harvest work in other states is also advancing or has started. The estimated 2025/26 soybean yield in Brazil is 181 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons compared to the forecast on December 22 [2]. - The weather forecast for the main soybean - producing areas in South America shows that in the next two weeks (January 31 - February 13, 2026), precipitation in the main Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be uneven, with some areas having more precipitation, some less, and some being normal. In terms of temperature, most areas will be normal, but the temperature in Rio Grande do Sul will be higher. In the main Argentine soybean - producing areas, precipitation will be less (with an increase around February 6 but then a decrease), and the temperature will be high first and then low. Currently, the dry - hot weather in the Argentine production area has eased from February 7 - 9, but there are still concerns later. There are also concerns about dry - hot weather in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, so the weather in the production areas still has some positive impacts. Attention should be paid to the persistence of adverse weather [4]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, mainly due to an increase in basis trading. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 310,000 tons, compared to about 190,000 tons the previous week [5]. - The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, affected by pre - holiday stocking. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 194,000 tons, compared to about 188,000 tons the previous week [5]. - The basis of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 349 yuan/ton, compared to about 347 yuan/ton the previous week and about 349 yuan/ton the same period last year [5]. - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 820,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 111% [5]. - The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to increase next week. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.3 million tons (compared to 2.1 million tons the previous week and 210,000 tons the same period last year due to the Spring Festival holiday), and the operating rate was about 63% (compared to 58% the previous week and 6% the same period last year). Next week (January 31 - February 6, 2026), the soybean crushing volume in oil mills is expected to be about 2.37 million tons (compared to 470,000 tons the same period last year due to the Spring Festival holiday), and the operating rate will be 65% (compared to 13% the same period last year) [5]. Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Market - The price of soybean No.1 is stable with a slight upward trend. In the northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas is in the range of 4,300 - 4,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the inner - pass areas, the purchase price of clean soybeans is in the range of 4,980 - 5,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 - 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of northeast edible soybeans is in the range of 4,720 - 4,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [6]. - Farmers in the northeast production area are reluctant to sell, and the state - reserve purchase is gradually completed. The spot price in the northeast production area remains high and firm, with less remaining grain, and farmers are still reluctant to sell. The soybean auctions on various platforms have been well - traded. Some branches of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation have announced the completion of the direct purchase of soybeans from individual farmers in 2025 [6]. - The soybean market in the inner - pass areas has pre - holiday restocking demand. Traders in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and other places have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing, mainly for rigid - demand restocking before the Spring Festival [6]. - The demand in the sales areas is still supported by the Spring Festival factor. Although the downstream market's acceptance of the rising price of northeast soybeans is average and the trading is slow, as the Spring Festival approaches, the market trading may improve [6].
黑色产业链日报-20260127
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 11:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The supply - side has stable blast furnace profits and rising disk profits, so steel mills may continue to increase production with a low probability of significant reduction. The demand - side is affected by winter cold, with seasonal weakening of rebar demand and inventory accumulation, and hot - rolled coil demand may slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron Ore: Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the downside is supported by the healthy fundamentals of steel, good profits of steel mills, and inventory replenishment expectations. Additionally, attention should be paid to the impact of rainy seasons in Australia and Brazil on shipments. It is expected that the price decline space is limited [23]. - Coal and Coke: Coking coal is in a pattern of "strong spot, weak disk" with a high basis. Without strong policy expectations to boost the disk, as winter storage enters the second half, the demand sustainability is limited, and the spot price of coking coal may face downward pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, if there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic supply recovery" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [36]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. The upper limit of silicon - manganese is restricted by high inventory, and the fundamentals of silicon - iron are slightly better than those of silicon - manganese. In the short term, ferroalloys will fluctuate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [52]. - Soda Ash: The short - term commodity sentiment is warming up, which may drive some low - valued varieties. If the disk rises, there is some inventory replenishment space for middle and downstream players, but the demand is average with limited elasticity. In terms of fundamentals, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the oversupply expectation is intensifying. The export of soda ash remains high, which alleviates the domestic pressure to some extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [66]. - Glass: Although the daily melting of float glass has dropped to a certain low level, the demand reality and expectation are also weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines for cold - repair and ignition, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. Currently, the high inventory of the middle reaches of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists [90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3199 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from January 26), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3330 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The basis and month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4][10][12]. - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day. For example, 01 rebar/01 iron ore was 4, and 01 rebar/01 coke was 2 [20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 757 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from January 26). The basis also increased, and the prices of various iron ore varieties such as Rizhao PB powder also rose [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the 45 - port desilting volume decreased, the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, the 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel mill inventory increased, and the available days of 247 steel mills also increased [30]. Coal and Coke - **Price Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was - 178 (down 12.5 from January 26). The disk coking profit increased, and the ratios such as the main ore - coke ratio also changed [39]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions remained relatively stable on January 27, 2026, with some slight changes in the import profit of different types of coal [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - Iron**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the basis of silicon - iron in Ningxia increased, the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and动力煤 decreased slightly, and the number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased [53]. - **Silicon - Manganese**: On January 27, 2026, the basis of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, the month - spreads changed slightly, the spot prices in various regions remained stable, and the prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts increased slightly [54][56]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding changes [67]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the overall inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, restricting the price [66]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis changed [91]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the period from January 17 - 23, 2026 [92].
集运指数(欧线):现货跌价或压制地缘炒作高度,震荡市
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of the Container Freight Index (European Line) is in a clear downward channel this week, and the further decline in spot prices may suppress the height of geopolitical sentiment speculation in the market. The market is expected to be in a volatile situation in the medium - term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Information**: - EC2602 closed at 1,726.7, up 0.76%, with a trading volume of 565 and an open interest of 4,225, a decrease of 176. The trading volume to open - interest ratio was 0.13 [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1,200.2, up 5.46%, with a trading volume of 43,172 and an open interest of 41,690, an increase of 541. The trading volume to open - interest ratio was 1.04 [1]. - EC2606 closed at 1,447.6, up 3.47%, with a trading volume of 4,483 and an open interest of 7,324, an increase of 1,533. The trading volume to open - interest ratio was 0.61 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: - The SCFIS European route index on January 26, 2026, was 1,859.31 points, down 4.9% week - on - week [1]. - The SCFIS US West route index was 1,294.32 points, down 0.8% week - on - week [1]. - The SCFI European route index was 1,595 $/TEU, down 4.8% bi - weekly [1]. - The SCFI US West route index was 2,084 $/FEU, down 5.0% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different carriers' spot freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary, with prices for $/40'GP ranging from 2,030 to 2,593 and for $/20'GP ranging from 1,275 to 1,615 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.04, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.95 [1]. [Macro News] - A new round of tri - party talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia may be held on February 1 [10]. - US President Trump said the situation in Iran is "changing rapidly" and he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he thinks Iran wants to reach an agreement [10]. - The US fully agrees with Israel's statement that the reconstruction of Gaza will not start until Hamas is demilitarized and disarmed [10]. - Hamas demands that Israel fully implement the cease - fire agreement [10]. - Iran warns the US that it will attack US aircraft carriers if it suffers a military strike [10]. [Supply Side] - The weekly average capacity in February was revised down from 28.1 to 27.3 million TEU/week, and in March, it was revised up from 29.5 to 29.9 million TEU/week [12]. - After adjustments, the overall capacity during the Spring Festival in 2026 (weeks 8 - 10) decreased slightly, and after the Spring Festival (weeks 11 - 13) remained unchanged. The average capacities in weeks 8 - 10 and 11 - 13 were 22.8 and 32.1 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 6.3% and 25.8% [12]. [Spot Freight Rates] - The FAK average in the 4th week was around 2,600 $/FEU, and in the 5th week, the FAK center dropped 250 to around 2,350 $/FEU [13]. - Different alliances and carriers have different FAK price ranges in the 6th week or at the end of the month [13]. [Contract Analysis] - **2602 Contract**: It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range between 1,700 - 1,750 points [13]. - **2604 Contract**: In the short - term, it is recommended to gradually reduce short positions next week and wait. In the long - term, consider shorting at high prices after the GRI bullish expectations are exhausted [14]. - **2606 Contract**: It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation strategy and trade with a light position [14]. - **2610 Contract**: Hold short positions as appropriate and pay attention to the peace negotiations in Gaza and the geopolitical situation in Iran [14]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of the Container Freight Index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].
豆粕:靴子落地,价格或有反弹;豆一:现货稳中偏强,盘面反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-18 12:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Next week (01.19 - 01.23), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures may rebound. For soybean meal, although the January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada consultations had a bearish impact on prices, the market has already factored them in. After these events, there is no further negative news, so the soybean meal price is expected to rebound from a low level. For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price depends on the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - **US Soybean Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), US soybean futures prices first declined due to the bearish USDA report and then rose because of Chinese purchases and the increase in US soybean oil prices (due to the possible formulation of 2026 biofuel blending quotas in March in the US). From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 0.61%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 4.58% [2]. - **Fundamental Factors**: - **Chinese Purchases**: From January 12 to January 16, the cumulative large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations were about 1.4 million tons (mostly for 2025/26 delivery, and a few for 2026/27 delivery) [2]. - **USDA Export Sales Report**: In the week of January 8, 2026, for 2025/26 US soybeans, the export shipments were about 1.64 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 47% and a year - on - year increase of about 16%; the cumulative export shipments were about 17.98 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 42%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 2.06 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 10,000 tons (0 in the previous week), with a total of about 2.07 million tons (about 0.88 million tons in the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were about 1.22 million tons (0.47 million tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 8.12 million tons [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of the week of January 16, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - **USDA Reports**: The January USDA monthly supply - demand report showed an increase in the ending stocks of US and Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26, while those of Argentina and China remained unchanged. According to the USDA quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.25 billion bushels. These two reports had a short - term bearish impact on soybean prices [2]. - **South American Weather Forecast**: According to the January 17 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 18 - February 1), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be basically normal. In Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be higher in some periods (January 24 - February 1). Currently, the weather in the Argentine产区 has a bullish impact and needs to be monitored [2][3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, mainly affected by the bearish January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada trade consultations. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) had a weekly decline of 2.12% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, with more long - term basis contracts traded. As of the week of January 16, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 670,000 tons, compared with about 360,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 186,000 tons, compared with about 174,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 372 yuan/ton, compared with about 344 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 247 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 9, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 13% and a year - on - year increase of about 66% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to rise next week. As of the week of January 16, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 1.99 million tons (1.77 million tons in the previous week and 2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (49% in the previous week and 68% in the same period last year). Next week (January 17 - January 23), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.2 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 61% (58% in the same period last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were sold at an average transaction price of 3,812 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 170 yuan/ton [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - **Futures Prices**: Last week (01.12 - 01.16), domestic soybean futures prices fluctuated, mainly affected by the bearish atmosphere in the soybean market, but the stable and slightly upward spot price provided support. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) had a weekly decline of 1.23% [2]. - **Spot Market**: - **Prices**: In Northeast China, the net grain purchase price of soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean grain passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In inland areas, the net grain purchase price of soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,640 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **Farmer and Market Sentiment**: In the Northeast production area, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the market is cautious. Many grass - roots farmers still expect prices to rise and ask for high prices. Most traders are cautious about purchasing and consume their inventories, and the speed of goods flowing to the market is slow. High prices suppress transactions, and there is a situation of "high prices but no trading" in some markets. In the sales areas, the soybean price increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance is low. Many dealers said that the loading price at the origin increased, the arrival cost continued to rise, and the selling price was adjusted accordingly. However, limited by the low acceptance of the downstream market, the price increase was smaller than that at the origin. The new demand for terminal soy products was limited, which suppressed the overall trading speed of the market [5].
农产品日报-20260116
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 05:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: The 2603 contract of corn resumed rising, with near - month contracts leading the increase and forward contracts following. The spot market is supported by pre - holiday stocking. The domestic average corn price is 2321 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The overall view is that corn is in an oscillatory state. Short - term long positions should pay attention to the pressure at the previous high, and medium - and long - term investors should focus on the strong performance of surrounding commodities. [2] - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday due to strong domestic demand and a sharp rise in soybean oil futures. The U.S. soybean single - week net sales were 2.0619 million tons, which is positive. Domestically, protein meal continued to weaken, with rapeseed meal falling more than soybean meal. The overall view is that soybean meal is oscillatory, and a double - selling strategy is recommended. Rapeseed meal should pay attention to Canada's visit to China, and an option double - buying strategy is suggested. [2] - Oils: BMD palm oil fell on Thursday, following the decline in the surrounding market. CBOT soybean oil rose sharply, and Canadian rapeseed prices increased. The domestic oil market was weak but rose sharply at night, with rapeseed oil leading the increase. The overall view is that oils are oscillatory, and a strategy of selling put options is recommended. [2] - Eggs: The egg futures rebounded on Thursday, with the 2603 contract rising 1.96%. The spot price of eggs increased slightly. Terminal demand is stable, and the overall view is that eggs are oscillatory and slightly bullish. Short - term long positions can be moderately participated in, and the influence of funds and sentiment on the market should be continuously monitored. [2][3] - Pigs: The 2603 contract of live pigs rebounded during the session on Thursday and then declined in the afternoon. The spot price of live pigs was relatively stable. Terminal demand is stable, and the overall view is that live pigs are oscillatory and slightly bullish. Long positions should be held cautiously, and short - term market sentiment changes and the impact of spot prices on the futures market should be monitored. [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - On the 12th noon, MPOB announced the Malaysian palm oil data for December. The production was 1.83 million tons, a 5.46% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.3165 million tons, an 8.52% month - on - month increase; apparent demand was 331,000 tons, slightly less than the previous month; and inventory was 3.05 million tons, all within market expectations. The 1 - 2 month production is expected to decline seasonally, and with India's festival stocking demand approaching, Malaysian palm oil may gradually reach a high - inventory inflection point. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's slight increase in export LEVY and the implementation of the U.S. RVO policy. [4] Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given. [5][6][8][9][12] Contract Basis - The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these bases is given. [14][15][18][20][25] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of DCE in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition of DCE in 2023. [27] - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times, and her team has won many awards. [27] - Kong Hailan, an analyst for eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures, has a master's degree in economics. Her team has won many awards, and she has been interviewed by many mainstream media. [27]
现货价格有所松动,02合约估值逐步清晰
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 03:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price has loosened, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The final settlement price of the EC2602 contract is the arithmetic average of the settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Currently, the estimated settlement price for the first phase is around 2700 - 2800 US dollars/FEU (preliminarily estimated to be around 1900 points), and the second phase is estimated to be 2500 - 2600 US dollars/FEU. If the Maersk price in WEEK6 drops to 2200 US dollars/FEU, the final settlement price of the February contract may be around 1700 points [7]. - The policy of canceling the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase. In normal years, April and October have the lowest freight rates. The policy may affect the shipping rhythm of related industries and the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of January 14, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 62,665 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 54,675 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1718.00, 1230.50, 1424.10, 1532.60, 1118.00, and 1350.30 respectively [9]. - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2218 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3128 US dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1323.98 points [9]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies: For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK4 price is 1695/2730, WEEK5 price is 1510/2420; HPL's mid - January shipment price is 1585/2535, and early - February shipment price is 1585/2535. Different shipping companies and alliances have different price quotes for different shipment periods [1]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, the delivery volume from 2026 - 2029 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships), 1.212 million TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively; for over 17,000 TEU ships, the delivery volume from 2026 - 2029 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships), and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) respectively. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of over 17,000 TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity in January is 328,400 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK3/4/5 are 318,100/361,000/306,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February is 277,300 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6/7/8/9 are 241,600/348,800/288,400/230,700 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March is 281,600 TEU. In February, there are 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings (3 blank sailings from the OA alliance, 2 from the PA alliance, and 1 from the Gemini alliance), and in March, there are 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [4]. 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content in the provided text, only figure references. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Policy impact: The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced on January 8, 2026, that they will cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products. The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely cancelled from April 1, 2026. For battery products, the tax rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and completely cancelled from January 1, 2027 [5]. - Trade data: In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared with September and an 8% increase compared with the same month in 2024. From January to October, China's total exports of photovoltaic modules to the European market were about 91 GW, an 8% increase compared with the same period last year. Excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of Chinese photovoltaic modules in October, with imports of about 0.73 GW, a 76% increase compared with the same month in 2024, accounting for 10% of the total European market imports. From January to October, France imported 7.62 GW, ranking second, and Belgium imported 7.56 GW, ranking third [5].
《能源化工》日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 01:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE: Supply is expected to increase marginally, and demand enters the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. There is a positive feedback in the spot market, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored [1]. - PP: Both supply and demand are weak. There are many maintenance plans, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in January. The balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures are oscillating strongly. The inland price is expected to oscillate, and the port price is restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of MTO devices [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but it is driven by the strong performance of styrene and oil prices. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to look for shorting opportunities for EB03 and narrow the EB processing fee when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - The rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. The raw material price provides support at the lower end, and the weak demand suppresses the upper end. Attention should be paid to the raw material output in Thailand [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production load adjustment and inventory situation of soda ash plants [9]. - Glass: The price is expected to continue to weaken in the short term and can be treated bearishly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - The oil price is generally strong due to the instability in Iran, but the increase is limited by the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Middle East situation [11]. LPG Industry No specific views provided in the report other than price and inventory data. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for PX5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - PTA: The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 5,000 - 5,300, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for TA5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4,000 for EG2605, do a short - long spread for EG5 - 9 at a high level, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at a high level [16]. - Short fiber: The price is driven by raw materials in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally and narrow the PF processing fee when it is high [16]. - Bottle chips: The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [18]. - PVC: The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the short - term price fluctuates emotionally. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions [18]. Urea Industry - The urea price is expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as L59, PP59, and LP05 [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 11.41%, and PP trader inventory decreased by 5.28% [1]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.52%, and PP装置开工率 decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as MA59 and regional spreads [3]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.73%, and port inventory decreased by 6.63% [3]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 increased by 0.54%, and some downstream device开工率 decreased [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as EB - BZ [5]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and the styrene port inventory decreased significantly [5]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of natural rubber increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as the 9 - 1 spread [6]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.74% [6]. - **Production and开工率**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries decreased in November, and the开工率 of automobile tires changed [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash were generally stable, and there were changes in futures prices and spreads [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.25% [9]. - **Supply and开工率**: The开工率 and supply of soda ash remained at a high level, and the glass melting volume and产能利用率 decreased slightly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as Brent - WTI [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased, and there were changes in cracking spreads [11]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The LPG futures prices changed slightly, and the spot price increased. There were changes in various spreads such as PG02 - 03 [14]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.94%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.41% [14]. - **开工率**: The upstream main refinery开工率 increased by 2.49%, and the downstream PDH开工率 increased by 0.68% [14]. Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed, and there were changes in various spreads such as PX - naphtha [16]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased [16]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of PX, PTA, and polyester products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda decreased slightly, and there were changes in various spreads such as V2605 - V2601 [18]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC increased [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [18]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures price increased, and the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. There were changes in various spreads and basis [19]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.53%, and the port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the agricultural demand in some regions increased [19].
马士基调降WEEK5报价,02合约估值逐步清晰
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 03:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Maersk lowered the WEEK5 quotation, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The final trading day of the EC2602 contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures is February 9, 2026, and its delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - period delivery settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Currently, the valuation of the 02 contract is taking shape, but it will be affected by Maersk's next - week quotation and the price correction of the PA Alliance [7][8]. - The policy of canceling the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase in the near future. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can rise significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 13, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures was 62,795.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 54,738.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1720.40, 1199.70, 1413.50, 1529.90, 1107.40, and 1372.10 respectively [10]. 2. Spot Price - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2218 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 3128 dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1323.98 points [10]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. From 2026 - 2029, there are clear delivery plans for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK3/4/5 were 318,100/361,000/306,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February was 277,300 TEU, and there were 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings. The average weekly capacity in March was 281,600 TEU, and there were 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared with September and an increase of 8% compared with the same month in 2024. From January to October, the cumulative exports to the European market were about 91 GW, an increase of 8% compared with the previous year. After excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of photovoltaic modules from China [6].