- The report indicates that the market is on the edge of an upward trend signal, with the core observation indicator being whether the profitability effect is positive. The current trend line of the WIND All A Index is around 6262 points, and the closing price is at 6264 points, just on the verge of turning positive[2][5][7] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the moving averages is 4.03%, significantly greater than the absolute value of 3%, indicating that the market has returned to an upward trend pattern[2][5][6] - The industry trend allocation model shows that the mid-term distress reversal expectation model signals attention to liquor and real estate; the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on consumer electronics and domestic computing power. The industry trend model shows that the engineering machinery/industrial metals/energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - From the valuation indicators, the PE of the WIND All A Index is around the 80th percentile, which is a medium level, and the PB is around the 50th percentile, which is a relatively low level. Based on the short-term trend judgment and the position management model, it is recommended that absolute return products with the WIND All A as the main stock allocation should have a position of 60%[5][7][12]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a need for confirmation signals to return to an upward trend [2][4][9] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, which may suppress market risk appetite [2][4][10] - The overall market (WIND All A Index) experienced a weekly increase of 3.47%, with small-cap stocks (CSI 2000) rising by 3.75% and mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) by 3.46% [10][11] Market Timing System - The distance between the 20-day moving average (MA) and the 120-day MA has narrowed, with the 20-day MA at 6264 points and the closing price at 6320 points, indicating a need for the 5-day MA to rise above the 20-day MA for confirmation [2][11][18] - The current market is characterized by a consolidation pattern, with risk preference being a key observation indicator [2][4][11] Industry Configuration - The industry trend configuration model shows that storage chips and construction machinery are still in an upward trend, while sectors benefiting from policy support include real estate and photovoltaics [3][12][18] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on domestic computing power and gaming [3][12][18] Valuation Indicators - The overall PE ratio of the WIND All A Index is around the 85th percentile, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [3][12] - Based on short-term trend assessments, the report suggests maintaining a 60% allocation in absolute return products based on the WIND All A Index [3][12]