丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 如何看待回落后的散运？ ——交运周专题 2025W47 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期，干散运标的股价在一波上涨后迅速回调，我们认为前期上涨主要 301 法案落地影响，而 近期回落主要受福建板块情绪降温所致。虽然短期股价下行，但由于所处行业景气修复上行， 明年供给温和有限的背景下，需求三大催化因素 1）西芒杜投产改变铁矿石海运结构，2）美联 储降息释放大宗商品需求，3）俄乌战后重建和雅下水电建设拉涨大宗散货需求，提供行业上行 空间，行业中公司盈利有望随之改善。而从估值角度，当前船台紧张，新船价格维持高位，二 手船价随市场景气反弹，重置成本对估值有较强支撑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the express delivery and shipping industries, highlighting potential recovery and investment opportunities [1][3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is entering a verification phase for price increases, with key observations on price implementation, regional interactions, merchant actions, demand impacts, and potential social security implications. The report presents three scenarios for the industry: 1) elimination of price disparities leading to profit recovery and significant dividends; 2) continuation of competitive dynamics in many regions, exacerbating industry differentiation; 3) potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions to optimize supply [3]. - The report emphasizes the opportunity in China Shipbuilding, noting a combined order value of 378.7 billion with a market value-to-order ratio of 0.76, indicating a historically low position. It recommends focusing on the dry bulk shipping sector and highlights the potential for profit transmission from the black chain industry to shipping [3]. - In the oil transportation segment, VLCC rates remained stable at $34,764 per day, with expectations for continued price increases due to tight capacity and active demand. The report also discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and the resulting increase in compliant oil demand [3]. - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Civil Aviation Administration's "anti-involution" policies, which may optimize competitive structures and enhance airline profitability. The report recommends several airlines based on supply constraints and demand elasticity [3]. - The railway and highway sectors show resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes. The report suggests two main investment themes for the highway sector: traditional high-dividend investments and potential value management catalysts for undervalued stocks [3]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price verification phase, with potential for profit recovery and significant dividends [3]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [3]. Shipping - China Shipbuilding presents an investment opportunity with a low market value-to-order ratio [3]. - Recommended companies in the dry bulk shipping sector include China Merchants Energy Shipping and Pacific Shipping [3]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates are stable, with expectations for increases due to tight capacity and demand [3]. - The report notes the impact of U.S. sanctions on oil exports from Iran and Russia, affecting overall oil demand [3]. Aviation - The aviation sector is poised for profitability improvements due to regulatory changes and supply constraints [3]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [3]. Railway and Highway - The railway and highway sectors are showing steady growth in freight volumes, indicating resilience [3]. - Investment themes include high-dividend stocks and undervalued stocks in the highway sector [3].