得知2002年诺贝尔经济学奖得主丹尼尔·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）以安乐死的方式离世的消息，是在去年3月底一个清冷的早晨。那本早已翻旧的《思考， 快与慢》依旧搁在我的书桌，书页折了多处，有些页码边缘微微卷起，使得整本书膨胀得有点像发酵过的面包。是的，对我来说，卡尼曼先生，这位远在彼 岸的智者，就是我最重要的一位"知识面包师"。我关于行为经济学那点粗浅的认知骨架，很大程度上是啃了他的几本著作，尤其是这本"面包书"，才勉强支 撑起来的。它填充了我对"人如何决策"这一古老命题理解上的巨大空洞。 《思考，快与慢》 这岂非正应和了莎士比亚在《皆大欢喜》中的喟叹："世界不过是一座舞台，所有的男男女女只是些演员"？我们这些匆忙登台的演员，在名为"生活"的宏大 剧目中，何尝不都在被这些根植于大脑深处的认知偏差所导演，上演着一幕幕不自知的悲喜剧？ [ 美 ] 丹尼尔 · 卡尼曼 | 著 江生 于华 | 译 中信出版集团 2025 年 4 月 更重要的是，正是他交给我的底层逻辑，触发了一系列难以抑制的新思考，催生出一种近乎迫切的表达欲。10多年前，在经历了一段职业转换和思想的倦怠 期后，我本已主动停掉了在《北京青年 ...

Core Insights - The primary need for investors hiring investment managers is to avoid mistakes and manage emotional impulses rather than solely to maximize returns [3][28] - Long-term investment success requires a unique approach, while excessive differentiation can lead to failure [3] - The concept of "margin of safety" is crucial, allowing for potential errors by purchasing assets at a sufficiently low price [3][8] - Maintaining a calm, open mindset and readiness to act during challenging times can provide a competitive advantage [3][50] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Seth Klarman emphasizes the importance of risk control over absolute returns, noting that Baupost has only experienced five years of negative returns in its 42-year history, with a maximum drawdown of 12% [5][74] - The investment strategy focuses on constructing a portfolio that effectively protects against downside risks, including cash reserves and prioritizing high-quality debt instruments [10][72] - Klarman's approach to value investing has evolved, now considering not just tangible asset values but also the potential for value realization and market recognition [8][13] Group 2: Decision-Making Process - Baupost's investment decision-making involves multiple team members, including partners and analysts, who rigorously evaluate potential investments [34][39] - Discussions often center around risk assessment, with team members encouraged to challenge assumptions and consider potential pitfalls [41][46] - The culture at Baupost promotes open dialogue, allowing team members to express differing opinions without fear of repercussions [45][46] Group 3: Market Conditions and Opportunities - Klarman notes that the current market environment, characterized by rising interest rates, presents both challenges and opportunities, particularly in the private credit sector [66][68] - The firm is currently focusing on distressed assets and credit opportunities, with a significant portion of its portfolio allocated to these areas [62][63] - The investment strategy remains flexible, adapting to market conditions without adhering to a rigid allocation framework [61][62] Group 4: Psychological Factors in Investing - Baupost places significant emphasis on psychological factors in investment decisions, aiming to avoid panic and emotional reactions during market downturns [47][50] - Klarman believes that maintaining composure and an open mindset during adverse market conditions can lead to advantageous investment opportunities [50][52] - The firm encourages a culture of resilience, where team members are trained to recover from investment setbacks and maintain a long-term perspective [71][72]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that emotional outbursts often stem from unmet internal needs rather than the trivial issues that trigger them, suggesting that recognizing the underlying "elephant" behind the "mosquito" of minor irritations is crucial for emotional management [5][6][41]. Group 1 - Emotional outbursts are not random; they are often the result of long-standing unmet needs and frustrations [15][20]. - The story of Anna and Peter illustrates how small conflicts can mask deeper emotional issues, such as feelings of neglect and unfulfillment [9][19]. - Many individuals suppress their true feelings and needs to maintain harmony, leading to emotional explosions when pressures build up [21][22]. Group 2 - The article discusses the concept of cognitive bias, where past negative experiences distort current perceptions and reactions [30][32]. - It highlights that emotional distress often arises from cognitive distortions rather than the actual events themselves [31][38]. - The narrative of a man misjudging his neighbor due to preconceived notions serves as an example of how negative thoughts can escalate emotions unnecessarily [34][36]. Group 3 - To heal emotional distress, one must first change their cognitive framework and recognize their internal needs [46][50]. - The article outlines methods for improving emotional intelligence, such as respecting one's feelings, examining ingrained beliefs, and reframing relationships with others [51][58][61]. - It stresses the importance of developing a strong internal core to handle conflicts without being overwhelmed by emotions [69][76].