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银河期货粕类日报-20251016
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 13:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is generally stable, with the futures market showing a pattern of oscillation. The domestic soybean meal market is consolidating, and the decline space is limited after significant drops. Rapeseed meal has a slight rebound, but overall changes are limited, and the fundamental pressure persists [4]. - The soybean - related market is under pressure. Without a significant tightening of the balance sheet, the price center of the soybean system is expected to decline. Rapeseed meal is expected to move in a volatile manner [5][8]. - Given the current market situation, the recommended trading strategies are to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and engage in the M11 - 1 calendar spread. For options, selling a wide - straddle structure is suggested [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 16, 2025, soybean meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2907, 2742, and 2853 respectively, with changes of - 10, + 2, and 0. Rapeseed meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2364, 2306, and 2395 respectively, with changes of + 7, + 8, and + 7. Spot basis and price differences also showed various changes [4]. - **Price Spreads**: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread was 165 (down 12 from the previous day), the 59 - spread was - 111 (up 2), and the 91 - spread was - 54 (up 10). For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread was 58 (down 1), the 59 - spread was - 89 (up 1), and the 91 - spread was 31 (unchanged). The cross - variety price spreads and spot price spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The carry - over inventory of the old US soybean crop has been slightly adjusted upwards, with good demand fulfillment. The new crop's supply has slightly increased due to a small increase in planting area despite a slight decrease in yield per unit. South American old - crop supply is relatively loose, with expected increases in production, crushing volume, and possible increases in carry - over inventory or exports. The international soybean meal supply pressure is significant [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot pressure has slightly improved but remains relatively loose. As of October 10, the soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 6.37% from the previous week and 14.29% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons, a decrease of 9.26% from the previous week but an increase of 6.17% year - on - year. Rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure still exists [8]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - Sino - US communication has reduced concerns about trade conflicts, but the Madrid negotiation did not provide clear guidance on the soybean industry. With the decreasing demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the upward space for the domestic soybean meal futures market is limited [9]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The market is oscillating. After reflecting various negative factors, the downward space is limited. The overall supply - demand situation of domestic soybean meal is relatively loose, and the price pressure of US and Brazilian soybeans is still obvious. Rapeseed meal prices lack significant fluctuations, and the price spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by macro and supply - demand factors [10]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Stay on the sidelines. - **Arbitrage**: Engage in the M11 - 1 calendar spread. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle structure [11][12]. 3.6 Soybean Pressing Profits - Pressing profits vary by source and shipping date. For example, the pressing profit from Argentine soybeans in November was - 65.45 for the futures market and - 110.25 for the spot market, showing a decline compared to the previous day [12].
银河期货粕类日报-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 13:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market has entered a short - term slight oscillation phase. The international soybean market supply remains loose with significant overall pressure, and the upward space for US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. The domestic soybean meal supply - demand is relatively loose with inventory pressure. The rapeseed meal inventory is at a relatively low level, but the demand is also average, and the price lacks obvious fluctuations. The rebound space of the soybean meal inter - monthly spread may be limited, and the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may continue to show some downward pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Today, the US soybean market oscillated. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal also oscillated slightly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal changed little. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined slightly [4]. - For futures prices, soybean meal contract 01 closed at 2933, down 4; contract 05 at 2743, down 8; contract 09 at 2852, down 6. Rapeseed meal contract 01 closed at 2416, up 11; contract 05 at 2323, down 4; contract 09 at 2407, unchanged [4]. - For spot basis, the basis of soybean meal in Tianjin remained at 40, in Dongguan increased from - 50 to - 40, and in Zhangjiagang remained at - 60. The basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased from 65 to 44, in Guangdong decreased from 95 to 84, and in Guangxi decreased from 85 to 74 [4]. - For inter - monthly spreads, the 15 - spread of soybean meal increased from 186 to 190, the 59 - spread decreased from - 107 to - 109, and the 91 - spread decreased from - 79 to - 81. The 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased from 78 to 93, the 59 - spread decreased from - 80 to - 84, and the 91 - spread decreased from 2 to - 9 [4]. - For cross - variety spreads, the 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 532 to 517, the 09 spread decreased from 451 to 445, and the 01 oil - meal ratio remained at 2.779 [4]. - For spot spreads, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 328 to 332, the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal increased from 538 to 542, and the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal remained at 230 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the US, the ending stocks of the old - crop soybean balance sheet were slightly increased. The new - crop production slightly decreased in yield but increased in planted area, with overall supply slightly increasing. The price decline space is limited, and the market is mainly affected by exports [5]. - In South America, the old - crop soybean supply - demand is loose. The production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the price pressure exists, but the high price is due to optimistic export expectations [5]. - Internationally, the supply pressure of soybean meal is obvious. The annual crushing volume of major producing areas is expected to increase by 21.536 million tons, while the import volume of major importing countries only slightly increases [5]. - Domestically, the spot market of soybean meal is loose. As of September 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2672 million tons, the operating rate was 63.28%, the soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, up 3.63% from last week and 14.38% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, down 4.86% from last week and 3.04% year - on - year [7]. - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal is gradually weakening. As of September 26, the crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills was 20,000 tons, the operating rate was 5.33%, the rapeseed inventory was 26,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, down 2,500 tons [7]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiation was completed. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is worried about the uncertainty of subsequent supply. However, China's long - term demand for US soybeans exists, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short a small amount of soybean meal [9]. - For arbitrage, a long spread between M11 and M1 is recommended [9]. - For options, a short strangle strategy is suggested [9]. 3.5 Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit varies by origin and shipping date. For example, for Argentine soybeans with an 11 - month shipping date, the crushing profit was - 31.91, down from 0. For Brazilian soybeans, the crushing profit also changed with different shipping dates [10].
供应压力体现,价格承压运行
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 10:02
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - September 2, 2025: Supply Pressure Reflects, Prices Under Pressure" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal market continues to oscillate slightly, with limited cost - end changes. The rapeseed meal market has increased downward pressure, and after the previous rebound, there are few positive factors. The spot market has shown a rebound recently after reflecting the previous supply - side pressure [4]. - The U.S. soybean old - crop balance sheet is positive, but the new - crop supply is tightened. The South American soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply, and the international soybean meal supply pressure is obvious. The overall soybean - related market still faces pressure [5]. - Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about supply uncertainties. The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the rapeseed meal market will mainly move in a range [8]. Group 4: Market Quotes Summary - CBOT continued to decline today. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated slightly, and the rapeseed meal futures had increased downward pressure. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal monthly spreads showed a rebound trend, and the spot market showed a rebound recently [4]. - For soybean meal futures: the 01 contract closed at 3050, down 4; the 05 contract closed at 2810, down 4; the 09 contract closed at 3006, up 2. For rapeseed meal futures: the 01 contract closed at 2500, down 13; the 05 contract closed at 2394, down 12; the 09 contract closed at 2553, up 13 [4]. Group 5: Fundamental Analysis - U.S. soybean: The old - crop balance sheet is positive, with exports basically completed and an increase in crushing. The new - crop supply is tightened due to a significant reduction in planting area, and the new - crop cumulative exports are slow [5]. - South American soybean: The overall supply is loose, with an expected increase of 1539000 tons in soybean production and 821000 tons in crushing volume in major exporting countries. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about future exports [5]. - Domestic market: As of August 29, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, with an operating rate of 68.18%. The soybean inventory was 6.9685 million tons, up 2.1% from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0788 million tons, up 2.42% from last week. The rapeseed meal demand is weakening, and the supply pressure still exists [7]. Group 6: Macro - analysis - The Sino - U.S. negotiation in London has ended, and there is no clear macro - guidance. The market is worried about supply uncertainties, but as the market stabilizes, macro - disturbances are decreasing. China's long - term soybean demand from the U.S. is still high, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [8]. Group 7: Logic Analysis - Soybean meal: The domestic soybean meal futures' slight decline reflects the South American supply pressure. The market lacks clear direction, and the soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - Rapeseed meal: After fully reflecting the positive factors, the rapeseed meal market fluctuates around weak demand and supply changes. The price is unlikely to drop sharply, and the market will mainly move in a range [8]. Group 8: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to buy on dips for the 05 contract [9]. - Arbitrage: Buy on dips for the MRM05 spread [9]. - Options: Buy call options [9].