2025年，全球最富、最赚钱的银行排名出炉了，一看前四名被我们中国包场了，工商银行排全球第一， 建行排第二，农行排第三，中行排第四，连摩根大通跟美国银行都得靠边站。 而且我们的统治力有多强？ 全球前10大银行，中国进去6个，六大行凑齐，前20大银行，中国进去10个，占了半壁江山，全球前 1000个大银行的总利润超过11万亿，光我们中国的银行就赚走了1/4，挣了2.6万亿。 这豪华的数据背后，不光是中国人多，也是因为中国人最爱跟银行打交道，目前中国银行总储蓄已经超 过了8万亿。 但是这最近也变成了银行的烦恼，都在存钱，缺人贷款银行还怎么赚钱呢？ 所以，我们看到银行利率一降再降，把钱往外逼，1年期定存跌破了1%，5年期跌到了1.3%，这也让存 款大搬家时代到来。 自2020年开始，居民+非金融企业定期存款余额（人民币）每年的新增量均在10万亿以上，其中尤以22- 23年最高，年均新增规模在20万亿量级。考虑到这部分新发存款期限多为1-5年期（2年、3年、5年 等），逻辑上集中于近两年到期，这也是今明年存款到期规模大的重要背景。 我国自2010年先后经历过两轮明显的存款"搬家"、以及一轮存款回流： 2013-201 ...

Core Insights - The recent housing price predictions of "20,000 in first-tier cities, 8,000 in second-tier cities, and 3,000 in third and fourth-tier cities" have sparked significant public interest, reflecting deeper societal emotions rather than just concerns about housing prices [1][3] - Homeowners are experiencing anxiety over potential asset depreciation, as housing constitutes nearly 70% of urban residents' family assets, while the debt-to-income ratio has reached 132% [4][6] - Non-homeowners are hesitant despite falling prices, as they fear that even with lower prices, they may still be unable to afford homes due to income uncertainties [5][6] Housing Market Dynamics - In September, 63 out of 70 major cities saw a month-on-month decline in housing prices, yet some smaller cities, like Dingbian in Shaanxi, experienced a 25% increase in new home prices over three years due to strong demand [6][7] - In first-tier cities, such as Shanghai, new residential prices increased by 5.6% year-on-year, indicating that extreme predictions of price drops may not be supported by current market conditions [7][8] - The housing market's structure is fragile, with a significant portion of family wealth tied to real estate, highlighting the need for a diversified asset allocation strategy [8]