● 本报记者 谭丁豪 2025年港股步入估值修复与结构重塑并行阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化成为核心特征。历经此 前三年调整，恒生指数形成显著的估值洼地，南向资金创纪录净流入与外资转向共同重塑资金格局。 日前，中信证券海外策略首席分析师徐广鸿在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，2026年港股将在政策红 利与外部风险博弈中开启第二轮估值修复，内外因素共振有望进一步打开上行空间。在此背景下，投资 需紧扣"业绩确定性+估值弹性"主线，科技、医药、资源品与必选消费四大赛道，凭借政策支撑、产业 景气或供需优势，成为把握港股修复行情的核心方向。 估值洼地凸显 今年以来，港股三大指数震荡上行。Wind数据显示，截至12月9日，恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒 生科技指数分别累计涨幅为49.20%、22.59%、24.32%。 "今年港股市场整体呈现估值修复的态势，有业绩支撑的行业估值扩张更为显著，例如原材料板块。在 此背景下，具有进一步基本面支撑的行业有望获得更大的估值上行空间。"徐广鸿说。 "当前港股正处于估值修复与结构重塑的关键阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化构成市场核心特 征。"徐广鸿表示，从估值维度看，2021年春 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the U.S. stock market is supported by mid-term elections, policy easing, ample liquidity, and a favorable fundamental outlook for 2026. Despite concerns over high valuations and potential risks from high interest rates, the market remains attractive for investment due to strong growth expectations and the increasing market share of MAG8 companies [1][10]. Macroeconomic Environment - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with the federal funds rate projected to decline to 3.25%-3.4% by the end of 2026. This is supported by a weakening job market, with 1.1 million layoffs expected in 2025, and the Fed's recent interest rate cuts [2]. - The fiscal policy, particularly the OBBB Act passed in July 2025, is anticipated to create a $3.4 trillion deficit over the next decade, providing significant tax relief for businesses and contributing to fiscal expansion [3]. Market Liquidity - Four key factors are expected to support liquidity in the U.S. stock market: the expansion of dollar-pegged stablecoins, increased corporate buybacks, a shift of funds from money market funds to equities and bonds, and a resurgence in individual investor participation [4]. Fundamental Outlook - The fundamental outlook for the U.S. stock market is bolstered by strong growth in technology and improvements in the policy environment. The S&P 500 is projected to see revenue and earnings growth of 5.2% and 6.6% in 2025, respectively, with expectations for even higher growth in 2026 [6]. AI Bubble Narrative - The narrative surrounding the potential bursting of the "AI bubble" is considered unlikely in the short term, as demand for AI technologies continues to grow, supported by advancements in chip performance and system capabilities [7]. Private Credit Market Risks - Concerns regarding the private credit market have emerged following recent bankruptcies, but the overall default rate remains moderate, and the impact on the banking sector is expected to be manageable [8]. High Interest Rate Environment - The prolonged high interest rate environment poses risks to the real economy and financial system, with potential implications for the stock market if the Federal Reserve fails to respond timely to emerging risks [9]. Stock Market Outlook - The combination of fiscal and monetary easing is expected to support the continuation of a bull market in U.S. stocks in 2026, with a focus on sectors such as technology, manufacturing, energy infrastructure, military, and financial services [10].