证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 沃什：全球"财政开源""脱虚向实"的选择 专题报告 相关报告 1、《把握金融周期的波动—— —构建招商中国金融条件指 数》2026-01-27 2、《国补"退坡如何影响通 胀？》2026-01-20 3、《2026 财年全球宽财政力度 有多大？》2026-01-16 宏观点评报告 ❑ 风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期，特朗普政策超预期。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 2 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 王泺宾 S1090523070007 wangluobin@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 特朗普为什么提名沃什？第一，特朗普与沃什家族关系较为密切，而沃什 本人与财政部长贝森特师从德鲁肯米勒，这样一来白宫、财政部、美联储 之间的沟通可能更为顺畅；第二，沃什在华尔街和公共政策方面资源和经 验都很丰富，且作为前美联储理事具有信誉，其注重美联储独立性和资产 负债表纪律的鹰派底色可以让市场更加安心；第三，特朗普本就认为目前 美联储体制存在诸多问题，沃什既有改革的决心也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the restoration of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds and local government bonds starting from August 8, 2025, signifies the end of the tax-exempt era for these investments, impacting ordinary investors and the financial market dynamics [3][8][49]. Group 1: New Tax Regulations - Starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, while bonds issued before this date will remain exempt until maturity [3][18]. - The VAT rates differ based on the type of financial institution, with banks facing a rate of 6% and broader fund products like public funds and securities asset management products facing a lower rate of 3% [10][20]. - Individual investors can avoid VAT by purchasing bonds within a monthly limit of 100,000 yuan or a quarterly limit of 300,000 yuan until the end of 2027 [11][13]. Group 2: Impact on Investment Strategies - The new tax regulations may lead investors to prefer bond funds over direct bond purchases to minimize tax liabilities, as the effective tax rate for bond funds is significantly lower [10][20]. - Existing bondholders are not affected by the new tax rules, as their investments remain exempt from VAT until maturity, allowing them to continue benefiting from the previous tax structure [18][19]. - The restoration of VAT on government bonds aims to create a more equitable tax system and encourage investment diversification away from low-risk bonds towards other asset classes [31][38]. Group 3: Broader Tax Implications - The taxation of overseas investment income at a rate of 20% has been confirmed, requiring individuals to report their earnings from foreign stock trading [6][22]. - The enforcement of tax regulations on overseas investments is supported by China's participation in the Common Reporting Standard (CRS), facilitating automatic exchange of financial information with over 150 jurisdictions [23][24]. - The overall tax adjustments are part of a broader strategy to ensure tax fairness and eliminate discrepancies based on investment type or geographical location [46][49]. Group 4: Financial Market Dynamics - The restoration of VAT on government bonds is expected to lead to an increase in the coupon rates of newly issued bonds, reflecting the true market cost of capital and enhancing pricing efficiency in the financial market [39][43]. - Analysts predict that the yield on newly issued 10-year government bonds may increase by 5 to 10 basis points in response to the new tax structure [44]. - The changes in tax policy are seen as a significant step towards the maturation of China's financial market and tax system, marking the end of nearly a decade of tax exemptions for bond investments [49].