Core Viewpoint - Rich Clarida, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, anticipates significant adjustments in the Federal Reserve's policy framework under Kevin Walsh's leadership, particularly in forward guidance, balance sheet management, and credit allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Clarida identifies three main areas for potential policy adjustments: forward guidance, balance sheet management, and credit allocation related to mortgages [2]. - Walsh has expressed concerns over the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and has criticized the reliance on forward guidance, suggesting it may create confusion regarding future monetary policy [2]. - Walsh's proposal for a new "Treasury-Fed Agreement" aims to facilitate collaboration between the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and mortgage agencies in reducing the balance sheet size [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations and Inflation Considerations - Clarida notes that Walsh is likely to support at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3%-3.25%, as the market has largely priced in these cuts [3]. - There is potential for a third rate cut, which could lower the target range to 2.75%-3%, depending on inflation expectations [3]. - Walsh's approach may become more cautious after the initial rate cuts, particularly if inflation expectations rise significantly above current levels [3]. Group 3: Communication Policy Changes - The most significant difference in the "Walsh Fed" compared to previous chairs will be in communication policy, with a likely reduction in detailed forward guidance on future interest rate paths [4][5]. - Clarida references historical precedents where the Fed successfully maintained price stability and supported growth without extensive forward guidance, suggesting a potential shift in communication strategy [5]. - Walsh will need to collaborate with the Federal Reserve's committee to implement these reforms, with Clarida highlighting positive economic indicators such as technology capital spending and tax policy benefits [5].

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）正处于其政府生涯中可能具有决定性意义的事件的关键时 刻。 贝森特设计的筛选流程旨在避免这种失望——无论是对总统还是对他自己而言。他从一开始就设定了目 标：寻找支持降息、并愿意在制定货币政策时与白宫更好协作的候选人。贝森特已向特朗普提交了4名 最终候选人名单供其考量。 一位熟悉筛选过程的人士表示，贝森特并未支持任何特定候选人，而是专注于流程本身。 主要候选人被称为"两个凯文"。凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）是特朗普的长期经济顾问，现任国家经济 委员会（National Economic Council）主任。凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是前美联储理事，特朗普在第一 任期内曾考虑让他担任主席一职。 另外两名候选人——美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）和贝莱德（BlackRock）高管里 克·里德（Rick Rieder）——由于与特朗普的私人关系较弱，被认为当选可能性小得多。 原本的第五名候选人、美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）已退出竞争。 美国总统特朗普表示，将在明年1月初选出下一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh calls for a comprehensive reform of the Federal Reserve's operations and suggests a policy alliance with the Treasury Department, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy approach [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Policy - Warsh criticizes the current Federal Reserve officials, particularly Chairman Jerome Powell, for their credibility issues and failure to lower interest rates, which aligns with President Trump's demands [1][2]. - There is speculation about Trump's potential actions regarding Powell's position, with discussions among Republican lawmakers about possibly dismissing him [2][3]. - Warsh believes that the Federal Reserve's mechanism change is inevitable and emphasizes the need for a new "Treasury-Fed agreement" to manage national debt issuance effectively [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Policy - Warsh argues that the delay in interest rate cuts is a significant flaw and that public pressure from the President on the Federal Reserve is justified [2][3]. - He supports the current policy of quantitative tightening but insists on collaboration between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to lower borrowing costs [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate at the end of July but may begin to cut rates in September [6].