1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production seasonally cools down; the Spring Festival movie box - office drops nearly 40% year - on - year while tourist trips and spending hit new highs due to an extra holiday day; overall prices decline with oil, coking coal, and rebar prices falling, non - ferrous prices rising slightly, and agricultural products entering a seasonal downward trend; affected by the Spring Festival, subway ridership and peak congestion index in first - tier cities are low, while flight volume is high. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of front - loaded fiscal efforts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Seasonal Obvious Cooling - Steel: In the week of February 20, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.11 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.6 pct, and the rebar output increased by 1.22 tons. The inventory of rebar increased by 57.48 tons [9]. - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of February 11, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 2.8 pct at a low level [9]. - Chemicals: On February 24, the PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 3.86 pct [9]. - Automobile Tires: In the week of February 19, the full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 28.2 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 45.2 pct [10]. Demand: Spring Festival Tourism and Consumption Hit New Highs, Movie Box - Office Drops Significantly Year - on - Year - Real Estate: In the week of February 22, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly, the land supply area dropped sharply, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased [13]. - Movie Box - Office: In 2026, the Spring Festival movie box - office was 5.752 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 39.5%; the number of moviegoers was 120 million, a year - on - year decrease of 35.8% [13]. - Tourism Consumption: Due to an extra day of the Spring Festival holiday, the number of tourist trips and spending both hit new highs. During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, there were 596 million domestic tourist trips and the total domestic tourism spending was 803.483 billion yuan [14]. - Automobile Sales: In the week of February 8, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9,218 units, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 15,720 units [18]. - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of February 13, the SCFI index decreased by 1.19%, and the CCFI index decreased by 3.03%. On February 24, the BDI index increased by 1.62% compared with the previous week [20]. Prices: Non - ferrous Prices Rise, Agricultural Products Enter a Seasonal Downward Trend - Energy: On February 24, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.38% to $70.77 per barrel [22]. - Coking Coal: On February 24, the coking coal futures price decreased by 1.74% to 1,100.5 yuan per ton [22]. - Metals: On February 24, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices increased by 1.78%, 0.26%, and 0.15% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 0.98% [23]. - Agricultural Products: On February 24, the overall agricultural product price declined, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreasing by 0.81%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.17%, - 2.46%, - 2.33%, and + 1.50% respectively compared with before the festival [25]. Logistics: Flight Volume is High, Spring Festival Personnel Flow Hits a New High - Subway Ridership: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of subway ridership in Beijing decreased by 125.34 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 18.32%; in Shanghai, it decreased by 171.29 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 23.57% [26]. - Personnel Flow: During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the cross - regional personnel flow in the whole society reached 2.81 billion person - times, a new high. The daily average was 310 million person - times, an 8.2% increase compared with the same period last year [29]. - Flight Volume: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 3.37%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.08%, and that of international flights increased by 0.35% [29]. - Urban Traffic: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 5.79% compared with the previous week [29].

Credit Data Overview - In January 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion, slightly above the market expectation of 4.5 trillion but lower than the seasonal average of 4.98 trillion[2] - New social financing (社融) reached 7.22 trillion, exceeding both market expectations of 6.51 trillion and the seasonal average[7] - The growth rate of outstanding social financing decreased to 8.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[7] Loan Structure Analysis - Short-term loans for residents increased by 1.097 trillion, indicating a potential marginal improvement in consumer spending due to early consumption subsidies[6] - Long-term loans for residents continued to decline for four consecutive months, with a decrease of 1.466 trillion, primarily due to weak real estate sales[6] - Corporate short-term loans surged to 2.05 trillion, reflecting increased cash flow pressures, while medium to long-term loans fell by 2.8 trillion, indicating weak corporate investment sentiment[6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary easing, focusing on the effectiveness of fiscal policies and key economic indicators such as real estate and exports[3] - The overall economic environment is characterized as "weak reality," with significant downward pressure remaining due to insufficient domestic demand and weak confidence[3] Key Economic Indicators - M1 growth rose to 4.9%, driven by a lower base and accelerated activation of resident deposits[8] - M2 growth increased to 9%, supported by accelerated fiscal spending[8] - In January, total deposits rose by 8.09 trillion, with a notable decrease in resident deposits by 3.39 trillion, indicating a shift in deposit behavior[8]

Core Viewpoint - Overall, the January credit "opening red" is insufficient, particularly reflected in the weak performance of long-term loans for residents and enterprises, while short-term loans for enterprises show signs of a surge [2][26] Group 1: Credit Data Summary - In January, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion, slightly better than market expectations of 4.5 trillion but below seasonal averages of 4.98 trillion [4][28] - New social financing reached 7.22 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 165.4 billion, exceeding market expectations of 6.51 trillion and seasonal averages [13][37] - The growth rate of outstanding social financing decreased to 8.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [13][39] Group 2: Loan Structure Analysis - On the residential side, short-term loans increased by 1.097 trillion, indicating potential marginal improvement in consumer spending due to early issuance of consumption subsidies, while long-term loans decreased for four consecutive months [7][31] - For enterprises, short-term loans increased by 2.05 trillion, reflecting cash flow pressures, while long-term loans decreased by 2.8 trillion, indicating weak investment willingness [10][34][35] Group 3: Monetary Indicators - M1 increased by 4.9% year-on-year, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, attributed to a lower base and accelerated activation of resident deposits [17][41] - M2 rose by 9% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points, likely supported by increased fiscal spending [17][41] - Total deposits in January increased by 8.09 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.77 trillion, indicating a shift in resident deposits [17][41]

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with strong performance in consumption, exports, and industrial production, leading several international investment banks to raise their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025 [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Forecasts - UBS raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China from 4% to 4.7%, citing a robust second-quarter GDP growth of 5.2% supported by "trade-in" subsidies and stable export growth [1] - Morgan Stanley increased its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.8%, highlighting export resilience and proactive fiscal measures as key growth drivers [1] - Nomura maintained its GDP growth predictions for the second half of this year and 2026 but slightly adjusted its 2025 forecast upward due to better-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth [4] Group 2: Export Performance and Policy Support - The report indicated that exports outperformed expectations due to factors like "export grabbing" towards the U.S., ASEAN transshipment, and the depreciation of the yuan against non-dollar currencies [2] - Barclays Bank anticipates increased government efforts to boost consumption in the second half, including expanding the "trade-in" policy to more categories and potentially extending subsidies to additional service sectors [4] - UBS expects additional stimulus measures to be introduced by the government in late Q3 or Q4, including an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio by over 0.5 percentage points and interest rate cuts of 20-30 basis points [4] Group 3: Economic Challenges Ahead - Morgan Stanley noted that economic growth is expected to slow further in the second half, with weakening exports becoming a major drag on growth due to the fading "export grabbing" effect and renewed U.S. tariff policies [5] - The marginal effectiveness of fiscal stimulus is expected to diminish, and the impact of the "trade-in" policy on consumption will gradually decline [5] - A stimulus package of approximately 0.5 to 1 trillion yuan may be introduced, with timing potentially in September or October, allowing policymakers to assess economic trends more accurately [5]

Group 1 - The fiscal policy plays a crucial role in stabilizing growth amid increasing external uncertainties [1] - In the first half of this year, the issuance of new special bonds reached approximately 2.1607 trillion yuan, a growth of about 44.7% compared to 1.4935 trillion yuan in the same period of 2024 [2] - The government plans to arrange 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling local government debts [2] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to effectively utilize various government investment tools and optimize the direction of central budget investments [4] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6% year-on-year from January to May, indicating a strong performance [4] - Analysts expect a further acceleration in the issuance of special bonds in the third quarter, which will serve as a significant support for stabilizing growth [4]

Revenue Insights - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter[1] - April marked the first positive growth in tax revenue for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%[1] - Local government land transfer revenue also turned positive in April, increasing by 4.3% year-on-year, recovering from a decline of 16.5% in March[1] Expenditure Trends - General public fiscal expenditure in the first four months has reached 31.5% of the annual budget, the fastest pace since 2020[1] - In April, public fiscal expenditure grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment (9.6%), health (10.2%), and education (6.0%) expenditures[2] - Infrastructure-related expenditure in April showed a modest growth of 1.8%, significantly lower than the growth in social welfare spending[2] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund income saw a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in April, recovering from a decline of 11.7% in March, driven by improved land transfer revenue[3] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April, largely supported by accelerated issuance of special bonds[3] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include incomplete statistical information, policy outcomes falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in domestic economic conditions, and fluctuations in exports[3]