2026 年 3 月 6 日 2026 年政府工作报告解读 稳进·向新 证券分析师 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 事项： 2026 年 3 月 5 日上午，李强总理向十四届全国人大四次会议作《政府工作报告》。 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 动 态 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 2026 年经济增长目标设定和宏观政策总体安排取向稳健，更加注重调结构、 防风险、促改革，将为中国经济"十五五"起好步打牢基础。 一、 对增长目标的理解。2026 年GDP 增速目标定在 4.5-5%，在实际工作中努力争 取更好结果。国务院解读《政府工作报告》新闻发布会指出，"按照到 2035 年 人均 GDP 达到 2 万美元以上、比 2020 年翻一番这样一个远景目标来倒算，未 来十年我国经济年均增长 4.17%以上就可 ...

事件：3 月 5 日，十四届全国人大四次会议在北京召开，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。 点评：政策总基调坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应；经济增长目标符合预期。报告提出要坚持 稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。政 策总基调延续务实稳健。报告提出今年发展预期经济增长目标是 4.5%－5%，在实际工作中努力争取更好结果。报告提到预 期目标主要考虑是开局之年为调结构、防风险、促改革留出空间，为后期更好发展打牢基础。我们在此前报告中测算，2035 年实现人均 GDP 较 2020 年翻一番，意味着在"十五五"、"十六五"实际 GDP 年均增速在 4.2%左右。当前预期目标，与 2035 年远景目标总体衔接，也体现了政策制定的稳健务实且具有延续性。 宏观政策方面，财政政策保持力度，注重优化结构。今年赤字率拟按 4%左右安排，与上年相同，赤字规模 5.89 万亿元、比 上年增加 2300 亿元。拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作等。拟发行特别国债 3000 亿元，支持国有大型商业银行补充资本 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive macroeconomic policy to support economic growth, with the highest fiscal deficit levels in recent years and a significant increase in government bond issuance to boost key sector spending [1][2]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 will feature a deficit rate set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [2]. - The new government debt scale will reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [2]. - National general public budget expenditure is projected to be 287.395 billion yuan, a 1% increase from 2024, while government fund budget expenditure will be 1.129 trillion yuan, up 11.3% [2]. Government Bonds - Government bonds will play a crucial role in expanding investment and addressing shortfalls, with expenditures on special bonds reaching 619 billion yuan, a 37.6% increase from 2024 [3]. - The fiscal policy will utilize a combination of tools, including increasing the fiscal deficit rate and issuing long-term special bonds to support macroeconomic stability and high-quality development [3]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will see a rapid growth in the total financial volume, with M2 growth significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [3]. - By the end of 2025, the RMB loan balance is expected to reach 272 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 7% after adjusting for local debt impacts [3]. - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a package of financial support measures to solidify the economic recovery [2][3]. Support for Domestic Demand - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies aims to boost investment, enhance consumption, and improve livelihoods, with 1.3 trillion yuan allocated for special long-term bonds to support key projects [4]. - The "old-for-new" consumption program is expected to generate sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [4]. Financial Support for Consumption - By the end of 2025, financial institutions have reported applications for 118.4 billion yuan in re-loans to support consumption and elderly care [5]. - Consumer loans, excluding personal housing loans, are projected to reach 21.2 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025 [5]. Policy Integration - In early 2026, the continued issuance of long-term special bonds will support consumption and equipment upgrades, injecting strong momentum into the economy [6]. - The macroeconomic policies will focus on promoting domestic demand through coordinated fiscal and monetary measures [8]. Future Outlook - The central economic work conference has confirmed the continuation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, emphasizing precision and effectiveness in policy implementation [7]. - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policies and stimulate domestic demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the need to innovate and improve policy measures to promote effective investment, aiming to stabilize investment and enhance its role in expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3]. Investment Trends - In 2025, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 48,518.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous year, indicating downward pressure on investment due to local government debt and economic transition factors [4]. - Key sectors showed rapid investment growth, with industrial investment increasing by 2.6%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall investment growth [4]. - Infrastructure investment in key areas saw significant increases, such as pipeline transportation investment growing by 36.0% and internet-related services investment increasing by 23.8% [5]. Equipment Investment - Equipment and tool purchase investment rose by 11.8% in 2025, contributing 1.8 percentage points to total investment growth, with a focus on supporting over 8,400 equipment renewal projects through special bonds [6]. - The government plans to continue large-scale equipment renewal policies into 2026, with an initial allocation of 93.6 billion yuan in special bonds for various sectors [7]. Government Investment Strategy - The State Council meeting highlighted the importance of precise government investment to avoid inefficient and redundant construction, emphasizing the need for high-quality project planning and collaboration between investment, fiscal, and financial policies [8]. - The government aims to enhance support for private investment through a comprehensive policy package, addressing financing costs and barriers for private enterprises [9]. - The focus will be on increasing government investment in livelihood projects and utilizing new policy financial tools to attract more private and social capital [9].

Group 1 - The State Council's recent meeting emphasizes the need to innovate and improve policy measures to promote effective investment, focusing on utilizing central budget investments, ultra-long-term special bonds, local government special bonds, and new policy financial tools [1][2] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates a projected 3.8% year-on-year decline in national fixed asset investment by 2025, with traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate seeing reduced investment, while high-tech manufacturing and services are experiencing growth [1][2] - The meeting's deployment aims to stabilize investment and enhance quality and efficiency in the long term, utilizing a combination of policy tools to create a new rhythm for investment stability [1][5] Group 2 - Effective investment requires ensuring ample funding, with a focus on a collaborative investment funding guarantee system involving national guidance, market participation, and cooperation between central and local governments [2][4] - The meeting identifies five key areas for investment: infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, emerging industries, and future industries, promoting a balance between strengthening existing capabilities and addressing shortcomings [3][4] - Various market entities must work together, with central enterprises expected to lead in strategic emerging industries, while policies are in place to support private investment, thereby lowering financing barriers and costs [4][5] Group 3 - The meeting highlights the importance of timely macroeconomic policies and the need for early arrangement of fiscal funds to ensure effective project implementation [4][5] - The comprehensive deployment from the meeting aligns with the central economic work conference's directive to combine investments in physical and human capital, aiming for a more efficient accumulation of material capital and systematic cultivation of human capital [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's recent initiatives to promote effective investment in key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, emerging industries, and future industries, aiming to stimulate economic growth and improve investment efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Policies and Measures - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized the need to enhance the effectiveness of central budget investments, ultra-long-term special bonds, local government special bonds, and new policy financial tools to support major projects [1][2]. - A total of approximately 2.95 trillion yuan (about 295 billion) has been allocated for the early batch of "two heavy" construction projects and central budget investments for 2026, with around 2.2 trillion yuan (220 billion) for "two heavy" projects and over 75 billion for central budget investments [2]. - The focus is on improving the quality and maturity of project planning and reserves to ensure effective use of funds and support for eligible private investment projects [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The government aims to invest in traditional infrastructure such as transportation, energy, water conservancy, and municipal projects, while also focusing on new infrastructure like low-altitude airspace and computing power [3]. - There is a growing demand for investment in high-end manufacturing, smart technology, and green transformation, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, intelligent robotics, and quantum technology [3]. - Urban renewal is highlighted as a key area for investment as cities shift from large-scale expansion to improving existing infrastructure and public services [3][4]. Group 3: Shift in Investment Philosophy - Historically, investment in physical infrastructure was prioritized to quickly stimulate economic growth, but as the economy matures, the marginal returns on such investments are decreasing [4]. - There is a shift towards integrating investments in physical infrastructure with investments in human capital, focusing on improving public services in healthcare, education, elderly care, and housing security [4].

Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue for 2025 was 21,604.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[1] - National general public budget expenditure reached 28,739.5 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 1%[1] - Government fund budget revenue totaled 5,770.4 billion CNY, down 7% year-on-year[1] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue growth was positive, with the monthly year-on-year growth rate gradually turning from negative to positive in the second half of the year[2] - Major tax categories (VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax) shifted from negative growth in 2024 to positive growth in 2025[2] - Personal income tax and securities transaction stamp tax saw significant improvements due to a vibrant equity market[2] Expenditure Focus - Public finance expenditure in the livelihood sector (education, social security, and health) accounted for over 38% of total expenditure, significantly higher than the average of the past five years[3] - Expenditure in the technology and cultural sectors reached a new high, particularly in technology[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline, with only environmental protection expenditure showing positive growth[3] Budget Completion Rates - The completion rate for the national general public budget revenue in 2025 was 98.3%, lower than the average of the past five years[2] - The completion rate for national general public budget expenditure was 96.8%, also below the average of the past five years[3] - Government fund budget revenue completion rate was 92.3%, while expenditure completion rate was 90.4%, the latter being higher than the average of the past five years[5]

Group 1 - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds for equipment renewal has been allocated, marking an increase compared to the same period in 2025, which injects certainty into the economic outlook for the new year and highlights the intensified investment stabilization policies for this year [1] - In 2025, investment in the purchase of equipment and tools grew by 11.8% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 20% of total fixed asset investment, making it a key component in stabilizing the investment base [1] - The current investment cycle in China is in its fourth round, with significant demand for equipment updates driven by systemic generational gaps in manufacturing, healthcare, and education sectors, with an estimated annual equipment renewal demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan in key areas such as agriculture and industry [1] Group 2 - In addition to supporting equipment updates, the construction of major projects in China has significantly increased at the beginning of the year, with approximately 295 billion yuan in advance batch "two heavy" construction project lists and central budget investment plans allocated before the new year [2] - With the implementation of a comprehensive policy package, accelerated disbursement of central budget investments, proactive issuance of local government special bonds, and structural interest rate cuts by the central bank, research institutions generally expect investment growth to stabilize in the first quarter [2] - Given that the total fiscal expenditure scale for 2026 will "only increase and not decrease," the efforts to stabilize investment are expected to continue intensifying, leading to a gradual recovery in investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on increasing total expenditure, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing momentum to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - The total fiscal expenditure will be expanded, maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit and debt, ensuring that overall expenditure "only increases" and key areas are "strengthened" [2] - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue is expected to show a recovery growth trend, with a balanced revenue and expenditure situation anticipated [2] - Key expenditure areas such as social security, employment, technology, education, and health have received strong support, with over 10 trillion yuan allocated to these areas in the first 11 months of 2025, accounting for over 40% of total public budget expenditure [3] Group 2: Structural Optimization - The expenditure structure will be continuously optimized to ensure funds are allocated to critical areas, breaking the "base + growth" spending pattern [4] - In 2025, the central government allocated 66.74 billion yuan for employment subsidies and increased financial support for healthcare and public health services [4] - A new childcare subsidy system will be established, with 100 billion yuan allocated for subsidies to families with children under three years old [4] Group 3: Efficiency Improvement - The focus will be on improving the efficiency of fund usage, with plans to issue long-term special bonds to support key projects and enhance the effectiveness of bond funds [6] - In 2025, 1.3 trillion yuan of long-term special bonds were issued, with 300 billion yuan specifically allocated for consumer subsidies [6][7] - The total expenditure from special bonds and other financial instruments increased by 45.5% in the first 11 months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, amounting to 51.5 trillion yuan [7] Group 4: Reform and Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance aims to deepen fiscal and tax reforms to stimulate economic vitality, including optimizing transfer payment structures and enhancing local fiscal capabilities [8] - Continuous efforts will be made to standardize fiscal subsidies and improve government procurement processes to foster a fair competitive environment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on increasing total expenditure, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing momentum to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The total fiscal expenditure will be expanded, maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit and debt, ensuring that overall expenditure "only increases" and key areas are "strengthened" [2] - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue is expected to show a recovery growth trend, with a balanced revenue and expenditure situation anticipated [2] - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a gradual increase in public budget revenue, with a notable 2.5% growth in Q3 and 3.2% in October [2] Group 2: Key Expenditure Areas - The fiscal department will continue to optimize expenditure structure, ensuring strong support for social security, employment, technology, education, and health sectors, which accounted for over 10 trillion yuan, over 40% of total public budget expenditure in the first 11 months of 2025 [3] Group 3: Structural Optimization - The focus will be on optimizing expenditure structure to ensure funds are allocated to critical areas, breaking the "base + growth" spending pattern and applying zero-based budgeting principles [4] - Increased funding for employment support, healthcare, and child-rearing subsidies aims to enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness [5] Group 4: Efficiency Improvement - The government will arrange for long-term special bonds to support key projects and optimize policy implementation, aiming to improve the effectiveness of every expenditure [6] - In 2025, 1.3 trillion yuan of long-term special bonds were issued, with 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer subsidies, promoting economic transformation [6][7] Group 5: Strengthening Economic Momentum - The Ministry of Finance will deepen fiscal and tax reforms to enhance local financial capabilities and improve the efficiency of transfer payments [8] - Continuous efforts will be made to standardize fiscal subsidies and improve government procurement processes to foster a fair competitive environment [9]