据报道，研究人员在美联储一篇新论文中对Kalshi预测市场数据表示赞赏，这对这家正逐步融入经济主 流的新兴平台而言，是一次重大的信任背书。研究人员发现，在关键经济数据预测方面，Kalshi市场的 表现可能优于传统衍生品与调查预测。美联储的安东尼・M・迪尔克斯、西北大学的贾里德・迪恩・卡 茨，以及美国国家经济研究局的乔纳森・赖特写道："我们的研究凸显了预测市场的潜力，它可作为衡 量市场预期、为货币政策决策提供参考的全新基准。"他们表示，在核心通胀与失业率数据上，Kalshi 与彭博一致预期表现相当；在整体通胀预测上则更胜一筹。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict over U.S. monetary policy authority, triggered by a U.S. Department of Justice investigation into the Federal Reserve, which may lead to criminal charges, thereby straining the relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 1: Global Central Bank Response - Nine central bank governors issued a rare joint statement supporting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizing their alignment with his commitment to public duty and professional integrity [3]. - The statement highlights the importance of central bank independence as a key pillar for price stability, financial security, and overall economic order, warning that any erosion of this principle would harm long-term societal interests [3][4]. Group 2: Context and Implications - The controversy originated from Powell's testimony regarding the cost of the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation, which initially seemed like a technical issue but escalated with the Justice Department's involvement [4]. - Powell indicated that the criminal threat is being used as a political tool to undermine the Federal Reserve's professional judgment on interest rate policy [4]. - The tension between the Federal Reserve and the White House has historical roots, with past criticisms from President Trump regarding the Fed's interest rate decisions, raising concerns about the potential impact on inflation control and market perceptions of U.S. Treasury risk [4]. Group 3: International Perspective - The joint statement included central bank leaders from major economies as well as those from Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, South Korea, and Brazil, indicating a broad international concern regarding the issue [4]. - The absence of the Bank of Japan from the joint statement has led to various interpretations in the market, suggesting that the ongoing debate over central bank independence and political boundaries could have significant implications for global financial governance [5].

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is at 19.078 yuan per gram, down 0.20%, with a high of 19.327 yuan and a low of 18.702 yuan, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - Concerns are rising among investors regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to manage interest rates without political interference, as highlighted by UBS's chief economist Paul Donovan [1] - Donovan suggests that the investigation into the current Fed Chair Powell may inadvertently strengthen the central bank's independence, with indications that the Senate may delay the confirmation of a new Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - Former Fed Chair Yellen expressed that the investigation into Powell undermines the Fed's independence and is surprised that the market is not more concerned about this "extremely chilling" situation [2] - Yellen firmly believes that Powell's likelihood of committing perjury is zero and suggests that the investigation is politically motivated to remove him from his position [2] - Technical analysis of silver prices indicates a potential decrease, with support levels identified between 17.50-18.50 and resistance levels between 19.50-20.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra to require regional Federal Reserve presidents to reside in their respective districts for at least three years aims to enhance local economic representation and is seen as an attempt by the White House to increase its influence over the traditionally independent Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Becerra's proposal is intended to ensure that regional Fed presidents better represent local economic interests by mandating a three-year residency requirement [1][3]. - The proposal will not apply retroactively and is aimed at future appointments, with the current law allowing the Washington Fed Board to veto regional president appointments without Congressional involvement [3][4]. Group 2: Background and Context - Recent controversies surrounding the backgrounds of several regional Fed presidents have prompted Becerra's proposal, particularly as some have close ties to New York, raising questions about their ability to represent their districts [3][4]. - The proposal comes amid criticism from Becerra regarding the stance of several regional Fed presidents against further interest rate cuts, which the government believes are necessary to support the economy [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Federal Reserve Decision-Making - Regional Fed presidents play a crucial role in monetary policy decisions, with fixed voting rights for Washington Board members and the New York Fed president, while other regional presidents participate in a rotating voting system [3][4]. - The proposal could alter the nomination and appointment process for regional Fed presidents, potentially shifting the internal decision-making balance within the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 4: Political Influence - The White House's influence over the Federal Reserve Board is increasing, with President Trump having appointed three current board members and attempting to remove board member Cook, which could lead to a majority position for the White House [4]. - There is speculation regarding potential candidates to succeed Chairman Powell, with Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, being a likely choice [4].

Core Viewpoint - The 50-year mortgage rate may diminish the impact of monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - The statement suggests that long-term mortgage rates, specifically the 50-year rate, could influence the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing an unprecedented data shortage ahead of its policy meeting on October 28-29, primarily due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has hindered access to critical official economic statistics [1][3] - A significant third-party employment data source, ADP, has ceased supplying data to the Federal Reserve, further complicating the already unclear economic landscape in the U.S. [3] Group 1: Data Shortage Impact - The government shutdown has resulted in a lack of key economic statistics, making it difficult for policymakers to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy [1] - The interruption of ADP's data supply exacerbates the situation, as employment data is a core consideration for monetary policy [3] Group 2: ADP's Data Supply Suspension - ADP has stopped providing aggregated management data to the Federal Reserve, citing its commitment to public service and the need to protect client confidentiality [3] - Efforts by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to persuade ADP to resume data sharing have not yet been successful [3] - Powell has previously indicated that while private data sources cannot fully replace official statistics, ADP serves as a reasonable alternative in the employment data sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, as it is the first time in over a century that a sitting president has removed a Fed governor [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Implications - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue President Trump over her dismissal, citing that the Federal Reserve Act requires a valid reason for such actions [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve emphasized its commitment to adhere to any court rulings regarding Cook's case, highlighting the importance of the long-term fixed terms and protections for governors [2][3]. Group 2: Political Motivations - Trump's motivation for dismissing Cook appears to be linked to his dissatisfaction with the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates, which he believes is necessary to address housing costs [5][6]. - Trump has indicated that he has candidates in mind to replace Cook, aiming to increase his influence within the Federal Reserve by filling more seats with his appointees [4][5]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Experts warn that if Trump successfully removes Cook, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and leading to greater economic uncertainty in the future [8][9].

Group 1 - President Trump has appointed Stephen Moore as the new member of the Federal Reserve Board, filling the vacancy left by the resignation of Governor Kugler, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [1] - Stephen Moore is a prominent supporter of Trump's economic policies and has been a key advisor in trade policy, which aligns with Trump's expansionary tariff strategy [1][4] - Moore has previously criticized the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, advocating for a more forward-looking approach, which resonates with Trump's current economic agenda [4] Group 2 - Trump plans to nominate another candidate for a full 14-year term on the Federal Reserve Board starting January 2026, potentially as a successor to current Chair Jerome Powell [7] - Speculation includes candidates such as former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, economic advisor Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, with Waller being considered a strong possibility [7] - The long-term candidate must align with Trump's economic philosophy, with Waller's views on monetary policy being more dovish and supportive of data-driven decisions, which may balance Trump's demands while maintaining Fed independence [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated a moderate slowdown in the UK economy and labor market, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] Economic Indicators - The UK economy and employment market are showing signs of a mild slowdown, potentially impacting the Bank of England's policy path [1] - Current inflation is primarily driven by corporate pricing strategies rather than widespread supply-demand imbalances or cost-push factors [1] Policy Implications - There is currently no evidence suggesting that tariffs have significantly increased domestic price levels in the UK, which may affect future monetary policy considerations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the issue of federal debt is not a consideration in monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve continues to focus on economic indicators rather than federal debt levels when making policy decisions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of inflation and employment data in guiding monetary policy [1] - The statement reflects a commitment to maintaining independence from fiscal policy concerns [1]