美联储古尔斯比：50年期抵押贷款利率可能会降低货币政策决策的影响力。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing an unprecedented data shortage ahead of its policy meeting on October 28-29, primarily due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has hindered access to critical official economic statistics [1][3] - A significant third-party employment data source, ADP, has ceased supplying data to the Federal Reserve, further complicating the already unclear economic landscape in the U.S. [3] Group 1: Data Shortage Impact - The government shutdown has resulted in a lack of key economic statistics, making it difficult for policymakers to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy [1] - The interruption of ADP's data supply exacerbates the situation, as employment data is a core consideration for monetary policy [3] Group 2: ADP's Data Supply Suspension - ADP has stopped providing aggregated management data to the Federal Reserve, citing its commitment to public service and the need to protect client confidentiality [3] - Efforts by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to persuade ADP to resume data sharing have not yet been successful [3] - Powell has previously indicated that while private data sources cannot fully replace official statistics, ADP serves as a reasonable alternative in the employment data sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, as it is the first time in over a century that a sitting president has removed a Fed governor [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Implications - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue President Trump over her dismissal, citing that the Federal Reserve Act requires a valid reason for such actions [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve emphasized its commitment to adhere to any court rulings regarding Cook's case, highlighting the importance of the long-term fixed terms and protections for governors [2][3]. Group 2: Political Motivations - Trump's motivation for dismissing Cook appears to be linked to his dissatisfaction with the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates, which he believes is necessary to address housing costs [5][6]. - Trump has indicated that he has candidates in mind to replace Cook, aiming to increase his influence within the Federal Reserve by filling more seats with his appointees [4][5]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Experts warn that if Trump successfully removes Cook, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and leading to greater economic uncertainty in the future [8][9].

Group 1 - President Trump has appointed Stephen Moore as the new member of the Federal Reserve Board, filling the vacancy left by the resignation of Governor Kugler, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [1] - Stephen Moore is a prominent supporter of Trump's economic policies and has been a key advisor in trade policy, which aligns with Trump's expansionary tariff strategy [1][4] - Moore has previously criticized the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, advocating for a more forward-looking approach, which resonates with Trump's current economic agenda [4] Group 2 - Trump plans to nominate another candidate for a full 14-year term on the Federal Reserve Board starting January 2026, potentially as a successor to current Chair Jerome Powell [7] - Speculation includes candidates such as former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, economic advisor Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, with Waller being considered a strong possibility [7] - The long-term candidate must align with Trump's economic philosophy, with Waller's views on monetary policy being more dovish and supportive of data-driven decisions, which may balance Trump's demands while maintaining Fed independence [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated a moderate slowdown in the UK economy and labor market, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] Economic Indicators - The UK economy and employment market are showing signs of a mild slowdown, potentially impacting the Bank of England's policy path [1] - Current inflation is primarily driven by corporate pricing strategies rather than widespread supply-demand imbalances or cost-push factors [1] Policy Implications - There is currently no evidence suggesting that tariffs have significantly increased domestic price levels in the UK, which may affect future monetary policy considerations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the issue of federal debt is not a consideration in monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve continues to focus on economic indicators rather than federal debt levels when making policy decisions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of inflation and employment data in guiding monetary policy [1] - The statement reflects a commitment to maintaining independence from fiscal policy concerns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the Russian ruble will be influenced by upcoming monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - The Russian Minister of Economic Development has indicated that the performance of the ruble is contingent upon future monetary policy actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should incorporate the appreciation of the euro into its monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the importance of considering the euro's value in the context of monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a strong position, having nearly reached its 2% inflation target, and should maintain a flexible and pragmatic approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The ECB should act swiftly if necessary, indicating a readiness to respond to economic changes [1] - The appreciation of the euro should be incorporated into the ECB's monetary policy decisions, highlighting the importance of currency value in economic strategy [1]