美国财政部长贝森特提出的新提议，引发市场对美联储内部人事任命规则的关注。贝森特表示，未来各地区联储主席应在所属辖区居住至少满三年，确保更 好代表当地经济利益。这一提议被视作白宫试图在传统保持独立性的美联储中扩大影响力的举措。 美联储现行结构由华盛顿的七名理事和全美12家地区联储组成。地区联储主席由当地商业和社区领袖组成的董事会提名，再交由美联储理事会批准。近期多 名地区联储主席的背景引发争议。贝森特特别指出，目前有三位地区联储主席与纽约关系密切—— 两人曾任职纽约联储，另一人来自纽约投行背景。贝森 特质疑这些背景能否真正代表所在辖区的经济需求。 这一提议的背景是，过去几周贝森特对地区联储主席的公开批评持续升级。尤其在多位地区联储主席公开反对12月议息会议进一步降息后，批评更为明显。 政府希望通过降息降低抵押贷款、汽车贷款及信用卡等融资成本，为经济提供更多支持，部分联储主席的立场与此不完全一致。 地区联储主席在货币政策决策中作用关键。七名华盛顿理事和纽约联储主席在每次利率决议中拥有固定投票权，其他地区联储主席通过轮换参与投票。所有 地区联储主席均出席政策会议并参与讨论，对最终政策形成具有重要影响力。地区联储主席 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 50-year mortgage rate may diminish the impact of monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - The statement suggests that long-term mortgage rates, specifically the 50-year rate, could influence the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing an unprecedented data shortage ahead of its policy meeting on October 28-29, primarily due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has hindered access to critical official economic statistics [1][3] - A significant third-party employment data source, ADP, has ceased supplying data to the Federal Reserve, further complicating the already unclear economic landscape in the U.S. [3] Group 1: Data Shortage Impact - The government shutdown has resulted in a lack of key economic statistics, making it difficult for policymakers to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy [1] - The interruption of ADP's data supply exacerbates the situation, as employment data is a core consideration for monetary policy [3] Group 2: ADP's Data Supply Suspension - ADP has stopped providing aggregated management data to the Federal Reserve, citing its commitment to public service and the need to protect client confidentiality [3] - Efforts by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to persuade ADP to resume data sharing have not yet been successful [3] - Powell has previously indicated that while private data sources cannot fully replace official statistics, ADP serves as a reasonable alternative in the employment data sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, as it is the first time in over a century that a sitting president has removed a Fed governor [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Implications - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue President Trump over her dismissal, citing that the Federal Reserve Act requires a valid reason for such actions [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve emphasized its commitment to adhere to any court rulings regarding Cook's case, highlighting the importance of the long-term fixed terms and protections for governors [2][3]. Group 2: Political Motivations - Trump's motivation for dismissing Cook appears to be linked to his dissatisfaction with the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates, which he believes is necessary to address housing costs [5][6]. - Trump has indicated that he has candidates in mind to replace Cook, aiming to increase his influence within the Federal Reserve by filling more seats with his appointees [4][5]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Experts warn that if Trump successfully removes Cook, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and leading to greater economic uncertainty in the future [8][9].

Group 1 - President Trump has appointed Stephen Moore as the new member of the Federal Reserve Board, filling the vacancy left by the resignation of Governor Kugler, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [1] - Stephen Moore is a prominent supporter of Trump's economic policies and has been a key advisor in trade policy, which aligns with Trump's expansionary tariff strategy [1][4] - Moore has previously criticized the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, advocating for a more forward-looking approach, which resonates with Trump's current economic agenda [4] Group 2 - Trump plans to nominate another candidate for a full 14-year term on the Federal Reserve Board starting January 2026, potentially as a successor to current Chair Jerome Powell [7] - Speculation includes candidates such as former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, economic advisor Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, with Waller being considered a strong possibility [7] - The long-term candidate must align with Trump's economic philosophy, with Waller's views on monetary policy being more dovish and supportive of data-driven decisions, which may balance Trump's demands while maintaining Fed independence [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated a moderate slowdown in the UK economy and labor market, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] Economic Indicators - The UK economy and employment market are showing signs of a mild slowdown, potentially impacting the Bank of England's policy path [1] - Current inflation is primarily driven by corporate pricing strategies rather than widespread supply-demand imbalances or cost-push factors [1] Policy Implications - There is currently no evidence suggesting that tariffs have significantly increased domestic price levels in the UK, which may affect future monetary policy considerations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the issue of federal debt is not a consideration in monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve continues to focus on economic indicators rather than federal debt levels when making policy decisions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of inflation and employment data in guiding monetary policy [1] - The statement reflects a commitment to maintaining independence from fiscal policy concerns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the Russian ruble will be influenced by upcoming monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - The Russian Minister of Economic Development has indicated that the performance of the ruble is contingent upon future monetary policy actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should incorporate the appreciation of the euro into its monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the importance of considering the euro's value in the context of monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a strong position, having nearly reached its 2% inflation target, and should maintain a flexible and pragmatic approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The ECB should act swiftly if necessary, indicating a readiness to respond to economic changes [1] - The appreciation of the euro should be incorporated into the ECB's monetary policy decisions, highlighting the importance of currency value in economic strategy [1]