Hello，大家好呀！欢迎来到老闫侃时事。今天咱们的焦点将转向大洋彼岸的美国，聊一聊一场刚刚发生的超级震撼事件，这场震动直接波及全球金融市 场。美国总统特朗普，终于摊开了自己的底牌，选择了老熟人凯文·沃什，来接管掌握全球美元水龙头的美联储。 特朗普这一手，可不是简单的换个人这么简单，简直可以说是要对美联储进行一次拆家式的大改造。我们先来看看特朗普是如何在自己的社交平台Truth Social上官宣这件事的。这个老头儿真是会放话，他在平台上毫不吝啬，夸沃什是当今最优秀的金融专家之一，甚至给沃什加了个最伟大美联储主席的标 签，直言他将会是美联储历史上最棒的那位，可能连伯南克、格林斯潘都得自愧不如。特朗普还特别强调，沃什简直是为这个位置量身定制的，绝对不会让 大家失望。这一番话，夸得人头晕眼花，但背后藏着深意。你看，之前外界热议的热门人选是白宫经济顾问委员会主席凯文·哈塞特，结果特朗普却安慰哈 塞特：你也会是个好主席，但我实在舍不得你离开我的白宫团队。这话说得漂亮，但谁都知道，特朗普的心思早就定了——沃什才是他心中的那位美联储未 来掌舵人。 为何特朗普对沃什如此钟情？这背后可不仅仅是看中他的能力这么简单，更是因为二 ...

引言 在等待近十年后，凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）终于获得特朗普提名，成为美联储新掌门人。他在竞选过程中提出的"降息、缩表与制度改革"三大核心主 张，被市场称为美联储的"三板斧"，引发广泛关注。然而，2026年初通胀持续顽固、美联储暂停降息的现实，正让沃什的理论面临严峻考验。市场担忧， 若沃什在缺乏数据支持下强行推行降息，恐引发债市动荡，而他能否在复杂的宏观环境中实现政策目标，成为市场近期聚焦的焦点。 主体分析 市场预期反转：短期降息希望渺茫 在2025年底三次降息后，美联储于2026年1月按下降息暂停键。面对顽固的通胀、企稳的劳动力市场以及对2026年经济更强劲增长的预期，市场情绪已发 生显著逆转。利率市场的态度尤为谨慎，交易员们目前定价显示，最早要到2026年6月才会有下一次降息。 宏观咨询公司TS Lombard经济学家Dario Perkins直言："理论一旦被拿到现实中检验，代价往往就是个人声誉。这对他来说，像是一种'赢家诅咒'。"这一 评价凸显了市场对沃什政策能否落地的担忧，也反映出当前宏观环境对政策实施的限制。 缩表争议：是控通胀还是为降息铺路？ 沃什的核心主张之一，是在推动降息的同时， ...

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices have led to significant market reactions, with gold experiencing its largest single-day drop since 1983 and silver prices plummeting by as much as 36% in a single day [1] - The Shenzhen Shui Bei market has shown a split response, with some investors engaging in panic selling while others are seizing the opportunity to buy at lower prices, leading to a surge in gold purchases [1][2] - Many banks have issued risk warnings, advising investors to approach the market with caution and avoid impulsive trading behaviors [1] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Outlook - The A-share and Hong Kong real estate sectors have shown strong performance, with several brokerage firms indicating that despite ongoing profit pressures, positive signals are emerging in the market [2] - Factors contributing to this stabilization include a slight decrease in the number of second-hand homes listed in major cities, supportive policy measures, and historically low valuations in the sector [2] - Institutions like CITIC Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan suggest that the most challenging period for the real estate sector may be over, recommending a focus on high-quality companies with core resources and operational capabilities [2] Group 3: Telecommunications Tax Changes - Major Chinese telecom operators, including China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, announced a tax adjustment that will increase the VAT rate on mobile data, SMS, and broadband services from 6% to 9% starting January 1, 2026 [3] - This change is expected to have a direct impact on the revenue and profit margins of these telecom companies [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has caused significant market turbulence and a reevaluation of the Fed's role [4] - Warsh's reformist stance is anticipated to lead to aggressive interest rate cuts and a reduction of the Fed's balance sheet, aiming to diminish the Fed's power and size [4] - However, his radical approach may heighten tensions within the Fed and the broader market, facing substantial resistance and uncertainty [4] Group 5: Shenzhen Economic Performance - Shenzhen's GDP reached 3.87 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a 5.5% year-on-year growth, the highest among the top five cities [5] - The city is recognized as a leader in industrial output and foreign trade, contributing 10% of the national total [5] - Shenzhen also excels in various key areas, including the total number of business entities, R&D investment intensity, international patent applications, and cross-border e-commerce scale [5] Group 6: Capital Market Regulation - Regulatory authorities have emphasized the need to consolidate the positive momentum in capital markets, focusing on risk prevention, enhanced regulation, and promoting high-quality development [6] - Plans to deepen reforms in the ChiNext board and implement measures to support new productive forces have been outlined [6] - The guidelines for strategic investors indicate a minimum holding ratio of 5%, encouraging long-term capital to engage more deeply in corporate governance [6] Group 7: Banking Sector Adjustments - Ningbo Bank has reduced its interest rate on demand deposits to 0%, with other banks also lowering rates on gold accounts due to increased market volatility [8] - This trend is part of a broader strategy to manage risks and lower funding costs, potentially paving the way for future reductions in loan interest rates [8] Group 8: Silver Market Auction - A silver building in Hunan, constructed with 2.5 tons of silver, is set to be auctioned at a valuation of only 6.88 yuan per gram, significantly below market prices, raising public interest in asset valuation methods [7] Group 9: Oracle's Financial Challenges - Oracle is facing significant financial pressure due to aggressive expansion in AI data centers, leading to considerations of layoffs affecting 20,000 to 30,000 employees and potential divestitures of its Cerner medical software division [10] - The company has seen its stock and bond prices under pressure as several banks have ceased lending to its data center projects, exacerbating its financing challenges [10]

改革美联储？ 近年来沃什作为美联储政策的激烈批评者，曾主张美联储需要"改朝换代"。 彭博经济研究美国首席经济学家Anna Wong认为，这显然不利于他与现任联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）成员及美联储工作人员建立信任或融洽的关系。 举足轻重的美联储迎来变革派。美国总统特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席当天（1月30日）， 美股指集体下挫，贵金属价格暴跌，美元和美债利率反弹。 沃什的登场，引发全球投资者对美联储政策预期的急剧转变，多名知名经济学家表示，其提名也在引发 各界对美联储在美国这一全球最大经济体中扮演角色的全面重新评估。 沃什曾任美联储理事，多年来一直批评美联储职能不断扩张，他认为这是政策制定者为了应对2008年金 融危机和疫情带来的冲击而扩大政策工具箱的结果。 也正是这些呼吁美联储变革的呼声，促使美国财政部长贝森特支持沃什的任命。贝森特近年来也同样谴 责美联储"职能扩张"。 如今，获得提名的沃什有望执掌美联储，领导其改革，不过前提是参议院批准其任命。 彭博经济研究美国经济研究主任威尔克斯（David Wilcox）对第一财经表示，不管最后是谁获得提名， 上任时都会面临外界的质疑，人们会认为他一定是 ...

全球投资者对美联储政策预期急剧转变。 举足轻重的美联储迎来变革派。美国总统特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席当天（1月30日），美股指集 体下挫，贵金属价格暴跌，美元和美债利率反弹。 沃什的登场，引发全球投资者对美联储政策预期的急剧转变，多名知名经济学家表示，其提名也在引发各界对美 联储在美国这一全球最大经济体中扮演角色的全面重新评估。 鲍曼（MichelleBowman）是特朗普任命的另一位美联储官员，她去年成为负责金融监管的副主席。她公布了一项 计划，拟将位于华盛顿的美联储理事会的监管人员削减30%。 沃什曾任美联储理事，多年来一直批评美联储职能不断扩张，他认为这是政策制定者为了应对2008年金融危机和 疫情带来的冲击而扩大政策工具箱的结果。 也正是这些呼吁美联储变革的呼声，促使美国财政部长贝森特支持沃什的任命。贝森特近年来也同样谴责美联 储"职能扩张"。 如今，获得提名的沃什有望执掌美联储，领导其改革，不过前提是参议院批准其任命。 彭博经济研究美国经济研究主任威尔克斯（DavidWilcox）对第一财经表示，不管最后是谁获得提名，上任时都会 面临外界的质疑，人们会认为他一定是承诺了会在美联储执行美国 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|李翀 崔嵘 韦昕澄 根据新华社纽约1月30日报道，美国总统特朗普30日通过社交媒体宣布，提名美国联邦储备委员会前理 事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。这项提名还需要获得国会参议院批准，对此我们点评如下。 ▍沃什被提名的原因在于满足特朗普"既要又要还要"的诉求。 沃什职业生涯始于摩根士丹利，2006-2011年担任美联储理事，是当时最年轻的美联储理事，危机期间 是华尔街和美联储的重要桥梁，但2011年因反对QE2而辞职。除哈赛特之外，相比其他几位候选人，沃 什家族和特朗普关系更密切，满足忠诚度要求。此外，沃什既有独立性特征，又在本轮竞选中摘掉"鹰 派标签"，边际转鸽支持降息，同时长期批评美联储，支持改革，符合特朗普对美联储主席的各方面诉 求。 ▍沃什重返美联储或代表货币主义的回归，以及美联储改革的推进。 "通胀是一种选择"是沃什的经典名言，这与弗里德曼"通货膨胀永远且必然是货币现象"异曲同工。沃什 的鹰派政策核心在于通过货币供应量控制和取消前瞻指引来压制通胀预期，而非机械性维持高利率压制 通胀，并非利率层面的鹰派。他认 ...

来源：新民晚报 美国总统特朗普30日提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。如果获得美国国会 参议院批准，沃什将接替任期将于今年5月结束的现任主席鲍威尔。 曾是最年轻理事 沃什出生于1970年，早期就职于摩根士丹利，专攻并购业务。2006年，沃什获美国前总统乔治·W·布什 提名进入美联储，担任美联储理事至2011年。他也是当时最年轻的美联储理事。 在2008年国际金融危机期间，沃什是时任美联储主席本·伯南克与华尔街的主要联络人，也是紧缩货币 政策的主要支持者。伯南克曾在2015年出版的回忆录中写道："凯文的政治和市场智慧以及在华尔街的 众多人脉证明了他的宝贵价值。" 2016年，作为当时候任总统特朗普组建的商业论坛成员，沃什曾为特朗普提供经济政策和战略建议。此 外，沃什的岳父是特朗普的多年好友。 沃什曾长期公开支持全球化和自由贸易。2011年，他在《华尔街日报》专栏文章中呼吁政策制定者"抵 制不断高涨的经济保护主义浪潮"。但他2024年曾暗示，需对不符合美国利益的国家采取更严厉的措 施。 沃什此前长期批评美联储自金融危机以来推行的宽松货币政策。但去年7月，他接受美国消费者新闻与 商业频道采访时 ...

但他们认为，美联储的货币政策仍有可能走向过度宽松，与当前的经济基本面脱节。 来源：环球市场播报 德国商业银行分析师Bernd Weidensteiner和Christoph Balz分析称，特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文・ 沃什，上任初期将优先推动美联储内部形成政策共识，而后从2026年年中开始逐步落实进一步的降息举 措。 两位分析师表示，鉴于美国经济当前表现强劲，特朗普提出的 "美国要实现全球最低利率" 的诉求恐难 被采纳。 此外，沃什本身倡导美联储改革，其捍卫美联储独立性的立场或与历任主席不同，这一情况或将推升通 胀风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential successor to the Federal Reserve Chair, Rick Rieder, has gained significant attention following President Trump's praise, with his nomination probability rising from 4% to approximately 50% [1][3]. Group 1: Nomination Context - President Trump expressed a strong impression of Rieder after a recent meeting, which has led to increased market expectations for his nomination [3]. - Current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term is set to end in May this year, making Rieder one of the final candidates for the position [3]. Group 2: Candidate Profile - Rieder lacks traditional central banking experience but has been a key decision-maker at BlackRock for over a decade, currently serving as Senior Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income [5]. - He manages a substantial asset portfolio of approximately $2.4 trillion, equivalent to about 16.7 trillion yuan [5]. Group 3: Policy Proposals - Rieder's emergence as a candidate is attributed to his reform ideas for the Federal Reserve, which align closely with the Trump administration's goals [5]. - He has publicly advocated for lowering the benchmark interest rate to around 3%, suggesting a reduction of at least 50 basis points from the current level, which he believes is closer to the neutral balance point [5].

Core Viewpoint - The probability of Rick Riedel being elected as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has surged to 54%, significantly ahead of the second-ranked candidate, Christopher Waller, at 29% [1] Group 1 - The prediction platform Polymarket indicates a strong likelihood of Riedel's election as Fed Chair [1] - Riedel's extensive experience on Wall Street and his open stance towards Federal Reserve reforms are enhancing his chances for the position [1]