Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran has emerged as a distinctive voice in economic policy, challenging traditional economic theories and practices, particularly in monetary policy, through his roles at the Federal Reserve and the White House Council of Economic Advisers [1][3]. Group 1: Career Background - Miran's unconventional career path includes a transition from biochemistry at Boston University to deep economic thought, reflecting a unique mindset [3]. - He served as a senior advisor at the Treasury during the Trump administration, contributing to significant economic policies like the CARES Act [3]. - After leaving the corporate sector, he joined the Manhattan Institute, focusing on topics such as the return of U.S. manufacturing and global trade restructuring, becoming a key advisor in Trump's economic policy [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - At the September 2023 Federal Reserve meeting, Miran proposed a 50 basis point interest rate cut, contrasting with the 25 basis point cut supported by other members [4]. - He argues that the current tight monetary policy is hindering economic recovery, advocating for a federal funds rate closer to 2% instead of the current level [4]. - Miran's stance reflects a deep understanding of the U.S. economic situation, emphasizing that high interest rates are suppressing economic growth and credit market activity [4]. Group 3: Industrial Policy - Miran advocates for gradually increasing tariffs and lowering the dollar's exchange rate to promote the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and reduce trade deficits [4]. - He believes that the U.S. has a unique advantage in the global trade system, and tariff policies can effectively adjust trade structures and optimize economic layouts [4]. - Despite criticism from some economists, this approach has gained traction as a mainstream economic policy under the Trump administration [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Reform - Miran's proposals for reforming the Federal Reserve challenge existing governance structures, which he believes are too closed and lead to "groupthink" [4]. - Suggested reforms include allowing the President to dismiss the Fed Chair and board members at any time, shortening board terms, and increasing legislative oversight of the Fed's budget [4]. - While some scholars criticize these proposals for potentially undermining the Fed's independence, they reflect Miran's desire for a more flexible and responsive decision-making process to address complex economic challenges [4]. Group 5: Controversy and Criticism - Miran's views have not been universally accepted, facing strong opposition from economists like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, who critiques his tariff and monetary policies [5]. - Krugman argues that Miran's policy framework is controversial and may not succeed in practice [5]. - Nonetheless, Miran's perspectives provide a new lens on U.S. economic policy, particularly regarding the balance between globalization and domestic economic interests, challenging traditional free trade notions [5].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 关于美联储改革的讨论 美联储的改革可能即将来临，因为国会推出的一项新法案旨在改变该央行的双重使命。 由众议院金融服务委员会主席、共和党人弗伦奇·希尔（French Hill）领导的众议院共和党人，推出了 《2025年价格稳定法案》，该法案将终结双重使命，确保美联储主要专注于控制通货膨胀。 希尔在一份声明中说，"太久以来，美联储一直在相互竞争的目标之间分身乏术。是时候回归到一个清 晰、单一的焦点了：通过抑制通胀来保护美国家庭的钱包。" 1977年，美国国会通过对《1913年联邦储备法》的修正案，正式引入了确保最大化就业和物价稳定的双 重使命。这项更广泛的立法倡议出台之际，正值美国经济面临更高失业率、不断上升的通胀和波动的 GDP增长率的困境。 现在，一群共和党议员表示，该机构多年来不断扩大的监管和监督范围，正妨碍央行稳定物价的努力， 并威胁到央行的独立性。 货币政策、国债市场韧性和经济繁荣工作组负责人、共和党众议员弗兰克·卢卡斯（Frank Lucas） 说，"通过不负责任的国际协议或其他定义不明确的第三和第四个使命来扩大其监管范围，分散了美联 储做好其 ...

（央视财经《第一时间》）当地时间17日，在新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔就美联储改革的问题回答记者提问，他说美联储将裁员10%。 目前，美国政府一直向联邦机构施压，要求减少员工数量。 美联储主席 鲍威尔：实际上，整个美联储将裁员10%，包括美联储理事会和所有储备银行的员工。届时，美联储的员工人数将基本回到十多年 前的水平。 据美国媒体报道，美联储系统2023年共有23950名员工，2024年的预算预计将员工数量增加至24553人。削减10%将使这一数字降至2.2万人左 右。美国政府目前一直向联邦机构施压，要求减少员工数量，称此举可以削减联邦赤字。但美联储独立运营，不依赖国会拨款或纳税人的资金 支持。在谈到美联储改革的前景时，鲍威尔表示愿意接受建设性的批评，但他不认为有必要对美联储进行正式审查。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 ...

Group 1 - The core inflation data for August shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating that inflation has not worsened but remains sticky [3] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, signaling a slowdown in the labor market [3] - The economic slowdown further strengthens expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with potential for three cumulative cuts by the end of the year [3] Group 2 - The recent discussions by Treasury Secretary Besant with potential Federal Reserve chair candidates indicate a broader selection process beyond the previously publicized list [3] - Besant is advocating for a "gradual reduction of the balance sheet" as a core reform for the Federal Reserve, aiming to reduce its substantial bond holdings and lessen economic intervention [3] - The combination of pressure for rate cuts from the White House and leadership transition risks enhances market expectations for continued easing policies, supporting precious metal prices [3] Group 3 - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long-term upward trend, with short-term gold prices projected to fluctuate between $3,550 and $3,730 per ounce [4] - The medium-term outlook for gold suggests a potential new high near $3,800 per ounce [4] - Silver prices are closely monitored around the $43 per ounce resistance level, with a breakthrough potentially targeting $45 per ounce [4]

Group 1 - President Trump has appointed Stephen Moore as the new member of the Federal Reserve Board, filling the vacancy left by the resignation of Governor Kugler, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [1] - Stephen Moore is a prominent supporter of Trump's economic policies and has been a key advisor in trade policy, which aligns with Trump's expansionary tariff strategy [1][4] - Moore has previously criticized the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, advocating for a more forward-looking approach, which resonates with Trump's current economic agenda [4] Group 2 - Trump plans to nominate another candidate for a full 14-year term on the Federal Reserve Board starting January 2026, potentially as a successor to current Chair Jerome Powell [7] - Speculation includes candidates such as former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, economic advisor Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, with Waller being considered a strong possibility [7] - The long-term candidate must align with Trump's economic philosophy, with Waller's views on monetary policy being more dovish and supportive of data-driven decisions, which may balance Trump's demands while maintaining Fed independence [10]

8月7日周四，美国总统特朗普提名其高级经济顾问Stephen Miran出任美联储理事，旨在填补因理事Adriana Kugler提前辞职而空出的、将于明年1月到期的理 事席位。 资料配图，动图 由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美国总统特朗普重塑美联储的布局，正以一记出人意料的短期任命拉开序幕。 据媒体最新分析， 此举一石二鸟：既在短期内向美联储安插了一位支持降息的盟友，又巧妙地为自己赢得了时间，以谋划下一任美联储主席这一关键人事任 命。 特朗普明确表示， "与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选"，暗示这仅是一项临时安排。 这被市场解读为特朗普在为明年5月现任主席鲍威尔任期结束 后的人选进行战略布局。 消息公布后，市场对美联储独立性可能受损的担忧加剧，美元指数应声回落。 野村证券外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi指出， 对美联储独立性减弱的担忧"可能自然导致美元的抛售压力"。 对投资者而言，这一任命不仅意味着 美联储内部可能出现更多支持降息的声音 ，更重要的是，它预示着特朗普希望美联储采取何种政策路径，并 为未来可能 出现的更激进的美联储改革埋下伏笔 。 一场"过渡性"任命： 争取时间，保留选择 特朗普 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月8日丨荷兰国际集团经济学家Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，在特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰 填补美联储理事会空缺后，美元仅小幅走弱。米兰最近因降息问题批评过美联储，并呼吁对美联储进行 全面改革，他将暂时填补这一职位，直到明年1月任期届满。有报道称，美联储理事沃勒是接替美联储 主席鲍威尔的热门人选，这一消息也抵消了这一影响。与另一位潜在候选人凯文•哈塞特相比，他在降 息问题上的立场更为温和。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board is seen as a significant move to reshape the Fed's leadership and align it more closely with his economic agenda, particularly in advocating for lower interest rates and financial deregulation [2][4][17]. Summary by Sections Nomination Announcement - Trump announced the nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler's resignation from the Federal Reserve Board [2][3]. Background of Stephen Miran - Miran is praised by Trump for his unparalleled expertise in economics and has been a close advisor since Trump's second term began [3]. - He is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" paper advocating for a lower long-term value of the dollar and has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Views on Federal Reserve - Miran has criticized the Fed's flexible inflation targets and warned that failure to manage inflation could lead to legislative changes to the Federal Reserve Act or the dismissal of board members by future presidents [6]. - He has also pointed out that the Fed's policies have created market expectations for aggressive easing in response to economic downturns [7]. Proposed Reforms - Miran has co-authored a report suggesting radical reforms for the Federal Reserve, including: - Granting voting rights to all Fed officials at every FOMC meeting [8]. - Allowing state governors to control local oversight committees for selecting regional Fed presidents [9]. - Permitting the White House to dismiss Fed officials at any time [10]. - Prohibiting board members from taking executive branch positions for four years after their term [11]. - Requiring Congress to allocate the Fed's operating budget [12]. Market Reactions - Wall Street's reaction to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors viewing it positively for potential rate cuts, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [13][14]. - Analysts generally believe that Miran's nomination will not alter expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the Fed [14]. Implications of the Nomination - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of January, with limited opportunities to influence rate decisions [16]. - His nomination is seen as the beginning of Trump's long-term plan to reshape the Fed, introducing a strong "MAGA perspective" into the FOMC [17].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran is seen as the beginning of a long-term plan to reshape the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining the authority of current Chairman Jerome Powell [1][15]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Trump officially nominated Stephen Miran to fill the vacant Federal Reserve Board seat left by Adriana Kugler's resignation, praising Miran's unparalleled expertise in economics [3]. - Miran's nomination is viewed as a significant step in Trump's efforts to reform the Federal Reserve leadership during his second term [4][15]. Group 2: Miran's Policy Views - Miran has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve and advocates for radical reforms, including allowing all Federal Reserve officials to vote at every meeting and granting the White House the power to dismiss central bank officials at any time [4][7]. - He is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord," which argues for measures to lower the long-term value of the dollar [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Wall Street's reaction to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors believing it could be beneficial for the market, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [12]. - Analysts generally agree that Miran's nomination is unlikely to change expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [13][14]. Group 4: Implications for the Federal Reserve - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of January, with limited opportunities to influence rate decisions, especially given the high likelihood of a rate cut in September [14]. - His appointment is interpreted as a significant symbolic move, introducing a strong "MAGA perspective" into the Federal Open Market Committee, indicating a potential shift in the operational and policy discourse of the Federal Reserve [15].

Miran从我第二个任期开始就一直与我共事，他在经济学领域的专业知识无与伦比——他将出色地完成工作。 值得注意的是，这项提名仅为填补美联储理事库格勒（Adriana Kugler）即将于明年1月到期的任期。特朗普表示： 美国总统特朗普表示，他已选择经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran担任美联储理事。 周四，特朗普通过社交媒体宣布了这一提名，Miran的任命需要得到美国参议院的批准。特朗普表示： "美联储批评者"Miran Miran对美联储近年的表现一直持批评态度，他主张对该机构进行根本性改革。 与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选。 该消息公布后，市场迅速做出反应。彭博美元现货指数抹去了日内涨幅。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 在2024年3月与现任财政部幕僚长Dan Katz共同撰写的一份长达24页的改革计划中，Miran将美联储的政策失误归咎于"群体思维"。 该计划的报告指出，美联储已经将其职权扩展到其法定范围之外的政治领域。Miran和Kat ...