Group 1 - President Trump has appointed Stephen Moore as the new member of the Federal Reserve Board, filling the vacancy left by the resignation of Governor Kugler, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [1] - Stephen Moore is a prominent supporter of Trump's economic policies and has been a key advisor in trade policy, which aligns with Trump's expansionary tariff strategy [1][4] - Moore has previously criticized the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, advocating for a more forward-looking approach, which resonates with Trump's current economic agenda [4] Group 2 - Trump plans to nominate another candidate for a full 14-year term on the Federal Reserve Board starting January 2026, potentially as a successor to current Chair Jerome Powell [7] - Speculation includes candidates such as former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, economic advisor Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, with Waller being considered a strong possibility [7] - The long-term candidate must align with Trump's economic philosophy, with Waller's views on monetary policy being more dovish and supportive of data-driven decisions, which may balance Trump's demands while maintaining Fed independence [10]

8月7日周四，美国总统特朗普提名其高级经济顾问Stephen Miran出任美联储理事，旨在填补因理事Adriana Kugler提前辞职而空出的、将于明年1月到期的理 事席位。 资料配图，动图 由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美国总统特朗普重塑美联储的布局，正以一记出人意料的短期任命拉开序幕。 据媒体最新分析， 此举一石二鸟：既在短期内向美联储安插了一位支持降息的盟友，又巧妙地为自己赢得了时间，以谋划下一任美联储主席这一关键人事任 命。 特朗普明确表示， "与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选"，暗示这仅是一项临时安排。 这被市场解读为特朗普在为明年5月现任主席鲍威尔任期结束 后的人选进行战略布局。 消息公布后，市场对美联储独立性可能受损的担忧加剧，美元指数应声回落。 野村证券外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi指出， 对美联储独立性减弱的担忧"可能自然导致美元的抛售压力"。 对投资者而言，这一任命不仅意味着 美联储内部可能出现更多支持降息的声音 ，更重要的是，它预示着特朗普希望美联储采取何种政策路径，并 为未来可能 出现的更激进的美联储改革埋下伏笔 。 一场"过渡性"任命： 争取时间，保留选择 特朗普 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月8日丨荷兰国际集团经济学家Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，在特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰 填补美联储理事会空缺后，美元仅小幅走弱。米兰最近因降息问题批评过美联储，并呼吁对美联储进行 全面改革，他将暂时填补这一职位，直到明年1月任期届满。有报道称，美联储理事沃勒是接替美联储 主席鲍威尔的热门人选，这一消息也抵消了这一影响。与另一位潜在候选人凯文•哈塞特相比，他在降 息问题上的立场更为温和。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board is seen as a significant move to reshape the Fed's leadership and align it more closely with his economic agenda, particularly in advocating for lower interest rates and financial deregulation [2][4][17]. Summary by Sections Nomination Announcement - Trump announced the nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler's resignation from the Federal Reserve Board [2][3]. Background of Stephen Miran - Miran is praised by Trump for his unparalleled expertise in economics and has been a close advisor since Trump's second term began [3]. - He is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" paper advocating for a lower long-term value of the dollar and has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Views on Federal Reserve - Miran has criticized the Fed's flexible inflation targets and warned that failure to manage inflation could lead to legislative changes to the Federal Reserve Act or the dismissal of board members by future presidents [6]. - He has also pointed out that the Fed's policies have created market expectations for aggressive easing in response to economic downturns [7]. Proposed Reforms - Miran has co-authored a report suggesting radical reforms for the Federal Reserve, including: - Granting voting rights to all Fed officials at every FOMC meeting [8]. - Allowing state governors to control local oversight committees for selecting regional Fed presidents [9]. - Permitting the White House to dismiss Fed officials at any time [10]. - Prohibiting board members from taking executive branch positions for four years after their term [11]. - Requiring Congress to allocate the Fed's operating budget [12]. Market Reactions - Wall Street's reaction to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors viewing it positively for potential rate cuts, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [13][14]. - Analysts generally believe that Miran's nomination will not alter expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the Fed [14]. Implications of the Nomination - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of January, with limited opportunities to influence rate decisions [16]. - His nomination is seen as the beginning of Trump's long-term plan to reshape the Fed, introducing a strong "MAGA perspective" into the FOMC [17].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran is seen as the beginning of a long-term plan to reshape the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining the authority of current Chairman Jerome Powell [1][15]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Trump officially nominated Stephen Miran to fill the vacant Federal Reserve Board seat left by Adriana Kugler's resignation, praising Miran's unparalleled expertise in economics [3]. - Miran's nomination is viewed as a significant step in Trump's efforts to reform the Federal Reserve leadership during his second term [4][15]. Group 2: Miran's Policy Views - Miran has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve and advocates for radical reforms, including allowing all Federal Reserve officials to vote at every meeting and granting the White House the power to dismiss central bank officials at any time [4][7]. - He is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord," which argues for measures to lower the long-term value of the dollar [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Wall Street's reaction to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors believing it could be beneficial for the market, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [12]. - Analysts generally agree that Miran's nomination is unlikely to change expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [13][14]. Group 4: Implications for the Federal Reserve - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of January, with limited opportunities to influence rate decisions, especially given the high likelihood of a rate cut in September [14]. - His appointment is interpreted as a significant symbolic move, introducing a strong "MAGA perspective" into the Federal Open Market Committee, indicating a potential shift in the operational and policy discourse of the Federal Reserve [15].

Miran从我第二个任期开始就一直与我共事，他在经济学领域的专业知识无与伦比——他将出色地完成工作。 值得注意的是，这项提名仅为填补美联储理事库格勒（Adriana Kugler）即将于明年1月到期的任期。特朗普表示： 美国总统特朗普表示，他已选择经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran担任美联储理事。 周四，特朗普通过社交媒体宣布了这一提名，Miran的任命需要得到美国参议院的批准。特朗普表示： "美联储批评者"Miran Miran对美联储近年的表现一直持批评态度，他主张对该机构进行根本性改革。 与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选。 该消息公布后，市场迅速做出反应。彭博美元现货指数抹去了日内涨幅。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 在2024年3月与现任财政部幕僚长Dan Katz共同撰写的一份长达24页的改革计划中，Miran将美联储的政策失误归咎于"群体思维"。 该计划的报告指出，美联储已经将其职权扩展到其法定范围之外的政治领域。Miran和Kat ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, including a potential visit and threats to dismiss Chairman Powell, symbolizes a significant political intervention in the Fed's independence, primarily aimed at reducing government debt interest expenses [1][2][4]. Group 1: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump's upcoming visit to the Federal Reserve marks the first time in nearly two decades that a sitting president has done so, indicating a notable shift in the traditional respect for the Fed's independence [2]. - Trump has consistently criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming that high borrowing costs are negatively impacting the real estate market [2][3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has expressed confusion over the Fed's reluctance to cut rates, questioning the impact of tariffs on the Fed's decision-making [2][4]. Group 2: Potential Dismissal of Powell - Trump has considered the possibility of dismissing Powell but later retracted this idea, stating that such an action is unlikely unless Powell engages in fraudulent behavior [3]. - Discussions about Powell's potential successors are ongoing, with names like Waller and Hassett being mentioned, although no immediate action is planned [3]. Group 3: Calls for Reform - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has called for a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve, questioning its focus on tariffs in the absence of clear inflation pressures [4]. - Any systemic reform of the Fed would require Congressional approval, which could be a lengthy process, highlighting the challenges of balancing political pressure with the Fed's independence [4]. Group 4: Economic Implications of Interest Rates - Trump argues that lowering the current policy interest rate (4.25% - 4.50%) by 3 percentage points could save the government $1 trillion annually in interest expenses [7]. - Interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time this fiscal year, with significant increases in debt service costs anticipated [5][7]. - The rising interest expenses are attributed to the growing federal debt and the recent downgrade of the U.S. debt rating by Moody's [5]. Group 5: Risks of Political Intervention - Experts warn that Trump's pressure on the Fed could lead to increased long-term interest rates, counteracting any short-term benefits from rate cuts [8][11]. - The potential dismissal of Powell may not significantly impact debt interest costs, as any short-term rate reductions could be offset by rising long-term rates due to inflation concerns [11][13]. - Political pressure on the Fed could result in investors demanding higher interest rates, complicating the Fed's ability to respond to economic conditions without appearing politically influenced [15].

【美国众议长约翰逊：对鲍威尔感到失望】美国众议长约翰逊：对美联储主席鲍威尔"不抱幻想"。对修 订"联储法案"持开放态度。对改革美联储持开放态度，但"魔鬼在于细节"。对于特朗普罢免鲍威尔的意 图，法律权限是不清晰的。 ...

白宫预算局局长沃特：（关于美联储改革的评论）不一致之处具有误导性。 ...