0 Sat all the VH FF 60033226 NO.LONII "H wa 专艺 and the state of the state of the r 11 随着全球金融市场持续波动，美国国债收益率的走向再次成为焦点。瑞典北欧斯安银行（SEB）最新发布的报告指出，该行依然预计美国十年期国债收益率 将在2026年第一季度回落至约三点九的水平，但同时也承认当前的市场环境让这一判断更具挑战性。 SEB研究部首席策略师Jussi Hiljanen在报告中提到，要实现这一收益率目标，关键在于市场重新建立对美联储降息路径的信心。近期，美联储官员多次发表 偏鹰派的讲话，强调需要关注通胀黏性以及经济表现的韧性，这使投资者对未来货币政策方向的判断更加谨慎。收益率因此维持在相对高位，也让预测的落 地增加了不确定性。 总体来看，SEB的观点属于基于宏观趋势的中性判断：既没有对短期市场波动做过度解读，也没有忽略政策预期变化可能带来的影响。在全球货币政策方向 仍未完全明朗的背景下，类似的分析为理解债券市场变化提供了有益视角。 未来几个月，美联储表态、通胀数据以及经济活动指标仍将是影响美债收益率走势的关键因素。收益率能否如 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations and declined, while platinum prices followed gold prices downward. The U.S. stock market faced significant sell-offs, with all three major indices closing lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recorded their largest single-day declines since October 10, indicating growing concerns over high valuations. Investors are increasingly worried about overvalued stocks, leading to profit-taking despite some companies reporting good earnings that did not meet "outstanding" expectations. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon previously warned of a significant market correction risk within the next six months to two years. The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for 35 days, matching a historical record, which has resulted in a lack of official economic data, making the market more reliant on private sector employment reports like ADP [1][3]. Currency Market Dynamics - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown has resulted in the inability to release key official economic data, prompting investors to focus on the upcoming ADP employment report for economic insights. Additionally, there is a divergence of opinions among Federal Reserve officials on how to address the current data gap. The U.S. dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark for the first time since early August. The euro has depreciated against the dollar for the fifth consecutive day, reaching a low of 1.1483, the weakest level since August 1. Despite the strength of other safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, the dollar has slightly declined against the yen to 153.60, while the yen remains near an eight-and-a-half-month low. Market strategists note that despite frequent discussions about the "decline of the dollar," it remains a reliable safe-haven asset during market turmoil. The shift in market sentiment towards safe-haven assets corresponds with the stock market decline and increased demand for government bonds. Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar have come under pressure, dropping 0.8% to 0.649 due to the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining interest rates and expressing caution towards further easing. The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations is a key driver of the dollar's strength, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 94% to 65% following last week's expected rate cut. The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, making the differing views among Federal Reserve officials on the economic situation a focal point for the market. Despite the recent strong performance of the dollar, the dollar index is currently in a fluctuating rebound trend [3].