在其他市场，美国十年期国债收益率收于4.145%，跌0.86%；2026年2月黄金期货收于4332.35美元/盎 司，与周一比几乎没有什变化；得克萨斯西部轻质油收于55.07美元/桶，跌1.6美元，即2.82%；美元指 数收于97.86点，跌0.10%。显而易见，投资者对经济的忧虑加深了。 美联储决策者和投资者所期盼的10月和11月份就业报告终于出炉，结果显示，就业市场进入"低雇佣-低 裁员"模式。10月，联邦政府裁员16.2万人，私营部门增加5.2万个岗位，整体裁减了10.5万个就业岗 位。11月，建筑行业增加2.8万个岗位，医疗服务（应对老龄化问题）增加了6.4万个岗位，总体增加了 6.4万个岗位。 就业市场基本面没有什么变化，医疗服务部门提供了绝大多数就业岗位，而其他经济部门处于低水平调 整模式或维持现状，尤其是备受关注的制造业和信息服务部门保持低裁员趋势。 南方财经21世纪经济报道特约撰稿 王应贵、娄世艳 北美当地时间12月16日，美国劳工部最新报告显示，10月份全美裁员10.5万个，11月份新增岗位6.4万 个；10月份，零售额同比增长3.47%，低于9月的4.18%，环比增长为0%，与9月份持平。 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market shows significant differentiation due to policy changes, data delays, and fluctuations in risk sentiment [1][2] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown provides short-term certainty and prompts the recovery of previously delayed economic data [1][2] - Despite the recovery in market sentiment, the Federal Reserve officials maintain a cautious stance, indicating that inflation has not yet reached a level that would justify interest rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - The market is currently relying more on expectations for trading due to the delay in key data caused by the shutdown, leading to increased asset volatility [1][2] - Risk appetite in the market has been restored, with some funds flowing back into the stock market and high-beta assets, although the recovery is uneven across sectors [1][2] - The transition from a "defensive" to a "selective offensive" market approach resembles an emotional rebound rather than a trend-based recovery [1][2] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index stabilizes and rebounds, benefiting from the cooling of rate cut expectations and rising U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Gold is under pressure due to hawkish policy signals and rising yields, yet it remains within a strong support range [3] - Global stock markets continue to experience a volatile rebound, with significant structural differentiation among sectors [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets showed significant divergence due to policy adjustments, data delays, and fluctuations in risk sentiment [1] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown provided clearer policy signals, leading to a new pricing process for major assets [1] - The cautious stance of Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation has cooled expectations for interest rate cuts by year-end [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Important economic data was delayed during the shutdown, leading to increased reliance on expectations for trading [1] - Despite a short-term recovery in sentiment, investors remain wary of potential shocks from the backlog of economic data [1] - The absence of employment, inflation, and manufacturing data has increased volatility in certain assets, with data uncertainty being a major market disruptor [1] Group 3: Asset Class Performance - Market risk appetite has seen some recovery, with funds flowing back into equities and high-beta assets [1] - Structural differences in recovery are evident, with technology and growth sectors performing better, while energy and financial sectors are constrained by fundamentals and interest rate expectations [1] - Safe-haven assets have experienced mixed fund flows, with gold under pressure but maintaining key support levels [1][4][5] Group 4: Stock Market Dynamics - Global stock markets continued to show a volatile rebound, with significant structural differentiation [6] - High-valuation sectors exhibited greater volatility, while low-valuation cyclical sectors remained weak, indicating that investors have not fully shifted to a risk-on mode [6] - The core themes of the week include policy return, sentiment repair, and ongoing risks, with the end of the U.S. shutdown providing certainty but leaving Fed policy direction unclear [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from SEB indicates that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to approximately 3.9% by Q1 2026, although current market conditions present challenges to this forecast [2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions and Predictions - The key to achieving the 3.9% yield target lies in the market's re-establishment of confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path [2] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have made investors more cautious about future monetary policy directions, keeping yields at relatively high levels [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial benchmark rate that reflects investor expectations regarding the U.S. economy and policy, influencing global financing costs and asset pricing [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - SEB maintains a baseline scenario of a shift to a more accommodative policy stance within the next three to four months, driven by declining inflation, moderate job growth, and slowing economic activity [3] - A downward adjustment in interest rate expectations typically leads to a more relaxed financial environment, increasing demand for long-term bonds and pushing yields lower [3] - The resilience of the U.S. economy suggests that any adjustments in yields may occur gradually rather than abruptly [3] Group 3: Future Influences on Yield - Key factors influencing the U.S. Treasury yield in the coming months will include Federal Reserve statements, inflation data, and economic activity indicators [3] - The ability of yields to decline to the anticipated 3.9% will depend on the clarity of policy signals and the market's confidence in the future interest rate path [3]

Core Points - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with major indices dropping sharply, particularly the Nasdaq which fell over 3%, marking its largest single-day drop since April [1][3] - The decline was attributed to rising uncertainties in the market, exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown and large-scale layoffs initiated by the Trump administration [1][9] - Macro data indicated a drop in consumer confidence, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index hitting its lowest level since May at 55 [1][11] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.9%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 3.56% and the S&P 500 decreased by 2.71% [3] - Major tech stocks suffered significant losses, with TSMC ADR down over 6%, and companies like Tesla, Nvidia, and Amazon dropping more than 4% [5] - Chinese stocks were also affected, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declining over 6% [6] Sector Impact - The energy sector faced severe losses, with WTI crude oil prices plummeting over 4% and Brent crude down 4.62% [6] - Cryptocurrencies experienced a massive sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping over 13% and Ethereum falling more than 17% [6] - There was a notable increase in demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices rising over 1% and U.S. ten-year Treasury yields falling to 4.034% [7] Government Actions - The Trump administration's decision to implement permanent layoffs of federal employees during the government shutdown marked a significant shift from previous practices [9][10] - The layoffs are expected to impact thousands of federal workers across multiple departments, intensifying market anxiety [9][10] Consumer Sentiment - The consumer confidence index reflects stagnation, with expectations of rising unemployment and inflation outpacing income growth [11] - Approximately 63% of respondents anticipate an increase in unemployment rates next year, with over two-thirds expecting inflation to exceed income growth [11]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a rebound of 0.2%, reaching around 97.9 during early Asian trading hours [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance at the annual economic policy seminar, suggesting a likely rate cut in September, which led to a 1.2% drop in the USD/EUR exchange rate, hitting a four-week low [3] - Market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, a 22% increase from the beginning of the month [3] Group 2 - Emerging market bond funds saw a net inflow of $4.7 billion in the first three weeks of August, with Chinese government bonds receiving $1.2 billion, marking the highest monthly allocation [4] - The yield curve in the Eurozone steepened, with the spread between German and US ten-year government bond yields widening to 140 basis points, the highest since Q4 2023, indirectly supporting the strength of the euro [3] - Retail trader sentiment indicators show a current dollar long-to-short position ratio of 1:1.3, the lowest level for this period in three years, indicating a gradual withdrawal of retail investors from dollar assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, signaling that interest rate cuts are not imminent and the policy remains in a vigilant "wait-and-see" mode [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Statement and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve acknowledged a recent slowdown in inflation data, which is seen as a preliminary recognition of potential easing inflation pressures, but emphasized that more positive evidence is needed to confirm a return to the 2% inflation target [3]. - Chairman Powell stated that it is not yet time to consider rate cuts, indicating that such decisions require "more time" and "more conclusive data" [3][5]. - The Fed noted that economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remains low and the job market is stable, with inflation still too high [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, the US dollar index rose by 0.55%, reflecting its safe-haven appeal, while the US 10-year Treasury bonds faced selling pressure, leading to a significant increase in yields [4]. - Market speculation regarding the timing of the Fed's first rate cut has shifted towards December, indicating that the current high-interest-rate environment will persist for a considerable time, affecting corporate financing costs and consumer credit [5]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Powell highlighted the impact of trade policies, noting that higher tariff rates are beginning to affect the prices of certain goods, but the overall impact on economic activity and inflation requires further observation [5].

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey predicts that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury will decline to 4.40% within three months and to 4.30% within six months, lower than the previous survey's estimates of 4.35% and 4.29% respectively [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Forecast** - The expected yield on the US 10-year Treasury is projected to decrease to 4.40% in three months [1] - The yield is anticipated to further drop to 4.30% in six months [1] - These forecasts are lower than the June survey estimates of 4.35% and 4.29% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities is perceived as a response to domestic economic challenges, particularly the difficulty in selling government bonds and the pressure on the dollar [1][8][41] - The Trump administration's "America First" policy has led to trade restrictions and tariffs, causing uncertainty among global investment institutions, which typically prefer stable markets [5][6][10] - Following the attack on Iran, the yield on U.S. ten-year bonds decreased, indicating a temporary restoration of confidence in government bonds, although the underlying issues of excessive spending and debt remain unresolved [12][14][41] Group 2 - The potential for rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to increased inflationary pressures in the U.S., complicating the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [24][39] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: while there are reasons to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, rising oil prices could reignite inflation, making it cautious about any rate cuts [27][31][39] - The outcome of the U.S. actions in Iran and the subsequent oil market reactions will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in July [37][41]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has decreased this year [1]