停摆结束后，市场风险偏好得到修复，部分资金回流股市及高贝塔资产。然而从板块表现来看，修复并 不均衡：科技及成长板块受情绪回暖支撑表现较强;能源、金融等板块仍受基本面与利率预期影响;避险 资产资金流动出现分化，黄金承压但仍守住关键支撑区间;整体来看，市场从"防御型"向"选择性进攻 型"转变，更像是情绪性反弹而非趋势性复苏。 1. 美元与利率 本周，全球金融市场在政策变化、数据延迟及风险情绪波动的共同作用下呈现明显分化。随着美国政府 停摆结束，市场重新获得政策方向感，主要资产迎来新一轮定价调整。 美国政府停摆结束，为市场注入短期确定性，并推动此前延迟发布的经济数据恢复。然而，美联储官员 传递的信号依旧谨慎，多位官员指出通胀尚未达到可安心降息水平，使市场对年底降息的预期明显降 温。政策呈现"半鹰半鸽"特征，市场在乐观与谨慎之间维持微妙平衡。 由于停摆导致关键数据延迟，本周市场更多依赖预期进行交易。尽管短线情绪有所回暖，但投资者对积 压数据可能引发的波动保持警惕。就业、通胀及制造业数据的缺口，使资产波动在多品种中加剧，数据 不确定性仍是本周主要扰动因素。 1. 黄金与避险资产 美元指数企稳反弹，受益于降息预期降温和美 ...

本周，全球金融市场在政策调整、数据延迟以及风险情绪波动的共同影响下呈现出明显分化。随着美国 政府停摆结束，市场重新获得政策方向感，主要资产迎来新一轮定价过程。 美国政府停摆落幕后，市场短期获得明确政策信号，也让此前被延迟发布的经济数据得以恢复。然而， 美联储官员的表态仍偏谨慎，多位官员强调通胀水平尚未达到可安心降息的条件，使市场对年末降息预 期明显降温。政策呈现"半鹰半鸽"的特征，令市场在乐观预期与风险警惕之间保持微妙平衡。 停摆期间，重要经济数据被迫延迟，本周市场更多依赖预期进行交易。虽然短线情绪有所回暖，但投资 者对积压数据可能引发的冲击保持警惕。就业、通胀与制造业数据的暂缺，使得部分资产波动加大，数 据不确定性仍是本周市场主要扰动因素。 随着停摆结束，市场风险偏好得到一定修复，部分资金重新流入股市及高贝塔资产。不过，这种修复呈 现结构性差异：科技及成长板块受益情绪反弹表现更佳；能源、金融等板块则受基本面及利率预期制 约；避险资产出现资金流动分化，黄金承压但仍守住关键支撑区间。整体来看，市场从"防御型"向"选 择性进攻型"转变，更像是情绪性反弹而非趋势性恢复。 1. 美元与利率 美元指数企稳反弹，受益于降 ...

0 Sat all the VH FF 60033226 NO.LONII "H wa 专艺 and the state of the state of the r 11 随着全球金融市场持续波动，美国国债收益率的走向再次成为焦点。瑞典北欧斯安银行（SEB）最新发布的报告指出，该行依然预计美国十年期国债收益率 将在2026年第一季度回落至约三点九的水平，但同时也承认当前的市场环境让这一判断更具挑战性。 SEB研究部首席策略师Jussi Hiljanen在报告中提到，要实现这一收益率目标，关键在于市场重新建立对美联储降息路径的信心。近期，美联储官员多次发表 偏鹰派的讲话，强调需要关注通胀黏性以及经济表现的韧性，这使投资者对未来货币政策方向的判断更加谨慎。收益率因此维持在相对高位，也让预测的落 地增加了不确定性。 总体来看，SEB的观点属于基于宏观趋势的中性判断：既没有对短期市场波动做过度解读，也没有忽略政策预期变化可能带来的影响。在全球货币政策方向 仍未完全明朗的背景下，类似的分析为理解债券市场变化提供了有益视角。 未来几个月，美联储表态、通胀数据以及经济活动指标仍将是影响美债收益率走势的关键因素。收益率能否如 ...

Core Points - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with major indices dropping sharply, particularly the Nasdaq which fell over 3%, marking its largest single-day drop since April [1][3] - The decline was attributed to rising uncertainties in the market, exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown and large-scale layoffs initiated by the Trump administration [1][9] - Macro data indicated a drop in consumer confidence, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index hitting its lowest level since May at 55 [1][11] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.9%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 3.56% and the S&P 500 decreased by 2.71% [3] - Major tech stocks suffered significant losses, with TSMC ADR down over 6%, and companies like Tesla, Nvidia, and Amazon dropping more than 4% [5] - Chinese stocks were also affected, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declining over 6% [6] Sector Impact - The energy sector faced severe losses, with WTI crude oil prices plummeting over 4% and Brent crude down 4.62% [6] - Cryptocurrencies experienced a massive sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping over 13% and Ethereum falling more than 17% [6] - There was a notable increase in demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices rising over 1% and U.S. ten-year Treasury yields falling to 4.034% [7] Government Actions - The Trump administration's decision to implement permanent layoffs of federal employees during the government shutdown marked a significant shift from previous practices [9][10] - The layoffs are expected to impact thousands of federal workers across multiple departments, intensifying market anxiety [9][10] Consumer Sentiment - The consumer confidence index reflects stagnation, with expectations of rising unemployment and inflation outpacing income growth [11] - Approximately 63% of respondents anticipate an increase in unemployment rates next year, with over two-thirds expecting inflation to exceed income growth [11]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a rebound of 0.2%, reaching around 97.9 during early Asian trading hours [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance at the annual economic policy seminar, suggesting a likely rate cut in September, which led to a 1.2% drop in the USD/EUR exchange rate, hitting a four-week low [3] - Market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, a 22% increase from the beginning of the month [3] Group 2 - Emerging market bond funds saw a net inflow of $4.7 billion in the first three weeks of August, with Chinese government bonds receiving $1.2 billion, marking the highest monthly allocation [4] - The yield curve in the Eurozone steepened, with the spread between German and US ten-year government bond yields widening to 140 basis points, the highest since Q4 2023, indirectly supporting the strength of the euro [3] - Retail trader sentiment indicators show a current dollar long-to-short position ratio of 1:1.3, the lowest level for this period in three years, indicating a gradual withdrawal of retail investors from dollar assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, signaling that interest rate cuts are not imminent and the policy remains in a vigilant "wait-and-see" mode [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Statement and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve acknowledged a recent slowdown in inflation data, which is seen as a preliminary recognition of potential easing inflation pressures, but emphasized that more positive evidence is needed to confirm a return to the 2% inflation target [3]. - Chairman Powell stated that it is not yet time to consider rate cuts, indicating that such decisions require "more time" and "more conclusive data" [3][5]. - The Fed noted that economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remains low and the job market is stable, with inflation still too high [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, the US dollar index rose by 0.55%, reflecting its safe-haven appeal, while the US 10-year Treasury bonds faced selling pressure, leading to a significant increase in yields [4]. - Market speculation regarding the timing of the Fed's first rate cut has shifted towards December, indicating that the current high-interest-rate environment will persist for a considerable time, affecting corporate financing costs and consumer credit [5]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Powell highlighted the impact of trade policies, noting that higher tariff rates are beginning to affect the prices of certain goods, but the overall impact on economic activity and inflation requires further observation [5].

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey predicts that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury will decline to 4.40% within three months and to 4.30% within six months, lower than the previous survey's estimates of 4.35% and 4.29% respectively [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Forecast** - The expected yield on the US 10-year Treasury is projected to decrease to 4.40% in three months [1] - The yield is anticipated to further drop to 4.30% in six months [1] - These forecasts are lower than the June survey estimates of 4.35% and 4.29% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities is perceived as a response to domestic economic challenges, particularly the difficulty in selling government bonds and the pressure on the dollar [1][8][41] - The Trump administration's "America First" policy has led to trade restrictions and tariffs, causing uncertainty among global investment institutions, which typically prefer stable markets [5][6][10] - Following the attack on Iran, the yield on U.S. ten-year bonds decreased, indicating a temporary restoration of confidence in government bonds, although the underlying issues of excessive spending and debt remain unresolved [12][14][41] Group 2 - The potential for rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to increased inflationary pressures in the U.S., complicating the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [24][39] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: while there are reasons to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, rising oil prices could reignite inflation, making it cautious about any rate cuts [27][31][39] - The outcome of the U.S. actions in Iran and the subsequent oil market reactions will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in July [37][41]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has decreased this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in the yield of the US 10-year Treasury bond, reaching 4.6%, and the associated media narratives of a "bond crash" and "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, suggesting that these narratives may be exaggerated or sensationalized [2][4][6]. Group 1: Data Insights - Data 1: As of March 2025, foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a historical high, indicating that the narrative of a "bond crash" began only after the imposition of tariffs in April [8][9]. - Data 2: In March, the UK surpassed China to become the second-largest holder of US Treasuries, while many countries continue to increase their purchases despite China selling off some of its holdings [13][14]. - Data 3: China's holdings of US short-term securities reached the highest level since 2009 in March, suggesting ongoing interest in US debt [17]. Group 2: Current Challenges for US Treasuries - Challenge 1: Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1 in early May, which is seen as a normal reaction amid global economic slowdown and uncertainty [20][22]. - Challenge 2: The recent auction of 20-year Treasury bonds was disappointing, with a winning yield of 5.047%, higher than the average of the past six auctions, indicating increased investor demand for higher returns due to perceived risks [23][24]. - Challenge 3: Rising yields on Japanese government bonds, driven by high inflation and a hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan, may reduce Japanese demand for US Treasuries as local yields become more attractive [30][32]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The recent PMI data for May showed a reading of 52, indicating economic expansion, which aligns with the rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets anticipate continued growth and reduced rate cut expectations [36][38]. - The article suggests that the current yield of around 4.5% on US Treasuries may present a value opportunity for investors, as many analysts believe the yield is at a high point with limited upside potential [39][42]. - The author emphasizes the importance of understanding the US inventory cycle, which may influence economic conditions and subsequently affect Treasury yields, particularly as the market anticipates a potential shift to a "de-inventory" phase later in 2025 [46][49].