Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16-17 is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut during the meeting, reflecting investor sentiment that the Fed is prioritizing labor market performance over inflation concerns [3][6]. - There is a nearly 70% probability of two additional rate cuts by the end of the year, suggesting an acceleration of the easing cycle and a potential rebound in risk sentiment [3][6]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas of the Meeting - The meeting will focus on whether the Fed's monetary policy is at a turning point, with a rate cut potentially signaling the start of a new easing cycle amid slowing job growth and persistent inflation above target [6]. - The independence of the Fed's policy is under scrutiny, particularly in light of ongoing political pressures and controversies surrounding board nominations, raising questions about Powell's ability to make independent decisions [6]. - The newly released economic projections (SEP) and the dot plot will be closely watched, especially regarding expectations for terminal interest rates before 2026, which could influence global asset allocation and market confidence [6]. - Powell's press conference will be crucial, as his comments on inflation, employment, and policy direction, along with responses to political pressures, may significantly impact market expectations [6].

历史数据显示，长期债券可能正面临危险的九月行情。据数据显示，过去十年间，全球10年期以上政府 债券在九月份的跌幅中位数达2%，这一表现堪称年度最差月度纪录。当前市场环境下，多重因素叠加 令长期债券承压，投资者需警惕收益率曲线进一步倒挂的风险。 市场情绪已现谨慎迹象。五星资产管理公司高级投资组合经理下村秀夫指出，九月通常是货币政策转折 的关键窗口，也是市场预期重塑的敏感期。 当前机构投资者普遍采取防御姿态，关注焦点集中于两大风险事件：周五即将公布的美国非农就业数据 将验证美联储降息预期的合理性，而欧元区通胀数据若出现意外波动，可能打破欧洲央行维持利率不变 的共识。 季节性供给规律亦被策略师重点关注。佩珀斯通集团研究主管Chris Weston与杰富瑞国际首席欧洲策略 师Mohit Kumar均认为，九月长期债券的弱势表现与发行节奏密切相关。通常七、八月债券发行量较 低，而十一月中旬后供给再次趋缓，九月恰处于供给回升的周期性节点，这从供需层面解释了季节性下 跌现象。 瑞穗国际多资产策略师Evelyne Gomez-Liechti则强调，本月债券市场还需克服多重挑战：美国经济数据 若持续超预期可能延缓美联储降息步伐 ...