智通财经12月24日讯（编辑 潇湘）2025年，全球主要发达经济体央行正以金融危机以来最快的速度和 最大规模实施降息，同时发展中国家政策制定者的宽松政策也在加速推进。 在全球十大最活跃货币的G10央行中，有九家在2025年下调了基准利率。G10央行涵盖了美联储、欧洲 央行、英国央行、澳洲联储、新西兰联储、加拿大央行、瑞典央行、挪威央行和瑞士央行。 今年，这些央行合计共实施了32次降息，累计宽松幅度达850个基点。这是自2008年以来降息次数最 多、也是自2009年以来宽松力度最大的一年。 这与2022-2023年形成了鲜明反差——当时因俄乌冲突导致能源价格飙升，各国政策制定者纷纷加息以 应对通胀。 日本央行今年成为了G10央行中唯一的例外——年初和年底先后两次上调了利率。 2026年前政策基调转变 与此同时，美联储正面临着劳动力市场与通胀动态交织的复杂局面。 摩根大通全球宏观研究主管Luis Oganes指出，"2025年期间，美联储每次会议要么维持利率不变要么降 息，从未讨论过加息。但2026年这种局面可能改变，尤其下半年将面临更明显的双向风险。" 月度数据也能显现出宽松政策动能减弱。12月召开会议的九家G ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16-17 is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut during the meeting, reflecting investor sentiment that the Fed is prioritizing labor market performance over inflation concerns [3][6]. - There is a nearly 70% probability of two additional rate cuts by the end of the year, suggesting an acceleration of the easing cycle and a potential rebound in risk sentiment [3][6]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas of the Meeting - The meeting will focus on whether the Fed's monetary policy is at a turning point, with a rate cut potentially signaling the start of a new easing cycle amid slowing job growth and persistent inflation above target [6]. - The independence of the Fed's policy is under scrutiny, particularly in light of ongoing political pressures and controversies surrounding board nominations, raising questions about Powell's ability to make independent decisions [6]. - The newly released economic projections (SEP) and the dot plot will be closely watched, especially regarding expectations for terminal interest rates before 2026, which could influence global asset allocation and market confidence [6]. - Powell's press conference will be crucial, as his comments on inflation, employment, and policy direction, along with responses to political pressures, may significantly impact market expectations [6].

Group 1 - Historical data indicates that long-term bonds may face a dangerous September, with a median decline of 2% for global government bonds with maturities over 10 years in September over the past decade, marking it as the worst monthly performance of the year [1] - The expectation of government debt expansion is becoming a primary source of pressure, as increased fiscal spending by multiple countries leads to a rise in long-term bond supply, diminishing the yield advantage of shorter-term bonds [5] - Geopolitical disturbances are exacerbating market uncertainty, including persistent inflation in Japan, political turmoil in France due to Prime Minister Borne's confidence vote, and potential pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could further elevate domestic price pressures [5] Group 2 - Market sentiment is showing cautious signs, with institutional investors adopting a defensive posture, focusing on two major risk events: the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data that will validate the reasonableness of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and potential unexpected fluctuations in Eurozone inflation data that could disrupt the consensus on maintaining interest rates by the European Central Bank [5] - Seasonal supply patterns are also a key focus for strategists, as the weak performance of long-term bonds in September is closely related to issuance rhythms, with low issuance in July and August followed by a rebound in September, which explains the seasonal decline from a supply-demand perspective [5][6] - Multiple challenges must be overcome in the bond market this month, including the possibility that continued strong U.S. economic data may delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, and hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan could lead to a repricing of global interest rates, making September a notably risky month for bonds [6]