货币竞争

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美元已是信用游戏!由“商品”支撑的人民币,才是真正的“货币”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 01:55
货币的终极价值,不在于它的面额或数字的大小,而在于它能换到多少实实在在的物资,也就是货物。美元之所以仍是世界货币,是因为各国暂时还离不开 它;人民币之所以能崛起,是因为全球离不开"中国制造"。 未来10年,美国若无法重建庞大的工业体系,美元霸权将加速衰落;反之,只要我国继续高度重视实体经济,尽快实现产业转型与升级,保持技术领先并扩 大金融开放,人民币将成为真正的全球货币。 这场"货"与"币"的博弈,最终将由生产力决定——谁生产得更多、更不可替代,谁的货币就将主导未来。也就是说:人民币与美元的未来,本质上是一场关 于"货"与"币"的博弈。 货币的价值从来不是凭空而来的:背后是"货" 它背后必须站着实实在在的物资和生产力——货币的本质从来不是纸张或数字,而是对真实物资和劳动价值的衡量凭证。美元强大、欧元值钱、日元地位也 不低,不是因为它们印得漂亮,而是因为它们背后曾经都有强大的工业体系和全球贸易网络作为支撑。 一旦失去这个根基,再精美的钞票也不过是一张废纸。纵观历史,任何一种货币的兴衰都与其背后的实体经济实力息息相关。美元之所以能在二战后确立全 球霸权地位,正是因为它绑定了全球最强大的工业体系和石油贸易。 194 ...
中美欧货币支付占比差距巨大:欧元22%,美元49%,人民币让我意外
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-07 09:12
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global currency payments, highlighting the dominance of the US dollar, the challenges faced by the euro, and the recent decline of the renminbi in international payment rankings [3][5][20]. Group 1: US Dollar Dominance - The US dollar maintains a dominant position in global payments, accounting for 49.08% of the total, which is a new high in eight months [8]. - Despite calls for "de-dollarization," many countries continue to increase their dollar reserves, particularly for commodities like oil and grains [10]. - The dollar's stronghold is attributed to historical factors, including its establishment as the world's reserve currency post-World War II [10][12]. Group 2: Euro's Challenges - The euro holds the second position in global payments with a share of 22.24%, but this figure has been declining, indicating underlying economic issues within the Eurozone [14][18]. - Recent data shows a drop in the euro's payment share from 22.29% to 21.93%, raising concerns about its stability [18]. - Internal conflicts within the Eurozone, such as differing fiscal policies among member states, contribute to the euro's precarious position [16]. Group 3: Renminbi's Decline - The renminbi's share of global payments fell from 3.89% to 3.50%, dropping from fourth to fifth place behind the yen [20][30]. - Despite a reported 8% increase in exports, a significant 20% drop in exports to the US has negatively impacted renminbi settlements [22]. - The renminbi's international payment status is still unstable, with its risk-bearing capacity being questioned [22][24]. Group 4: Future of Currency Competition - The article suggests that the future of currency competition may not solely rely on traditional systems like SWIFT, as alternative payment networks and digital currencies are emerging [26][28]. - China's digital renminbi and other national payment systems could potentially bypass traditional frameworks, reshaping the global payment landscape [28]. - The ability to establish a new payment ecosystem will be crucial in determining which currency can dominate future transactions [28].
单周下跌2%,美元创4月“对等关税”以来最大跌幅
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-24 02:08
ING全球市场研究主管Chris Turner指出: 对美国资产市场质量的持续担忧以及去美元化威胁继续对美元构成压力。 当日稍早,美国财政部长贝森特试图淡化美元走弱的担忧,声称"很大程度上是其他国家或其他货币在走强,而不是美元在走弱"。贝森特表示,欧洲 的"财政扩张"提振了欧元,而日本央行的加息则支撑了日元。但市场显然不买账: 美元本周下跌2%,创下自4月关税抛售以来最大单周跌幅,投资者对美国财政状况的担忧情绪急剧升温。 周五,美元对包括欧元和日元在内的一篮子货币下跌0.9%,本周累计跌幅达到2%。最令市场担忧的是美元对高利率环境的异常反应。通常情况下,更 高的收益率会增加美元资产的吸引力,但当前美元、美国政府债券和股票同时下跌的现象,被视为投资者恐慌抛售美元资产的明确信号。 财政扩张与货币竞争:美元跌势的外部推手 报道表示,投资者的恐慌情绪并非毫无根据。 特朗普的减税法案引发的财政赤字担忧已经推动长期美债遭遇抛售,30年期国债收益率本周上涨0.13个百分点,突破5%关口。BBH分析师警告: 投资者对美国财政负担不断加重的担忧正在慢慢积聚。 周五彭博美元指数的跌幅明显超过正常水平,价格跌破4月低点,创年内新低 ...