来源：市场资讯 我们预计，金价在4000美元/盎司中枢具有较强韧性。此次价格的大幅波动仍是前次高点回落的延续， 4000美元/盎司中枢震荡或将延续到下次美联储降息落地。 对于黄金股而言，A股黄金股更早交易金价调整，在4000美元/盎司以上未跟随金价上涨，虽然黄金股业 绩释放不够充分，但仍在合理区间，预计黄金股或将先于金价完成调整。 距离今年12月议息会议还有不到一个月时间，美联储内部的分歧立场更加明显，让货币政策的走向变得 扑朔迷离。而近期多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，表示通胀走高的因素需要进一步被评估，市场对12月 降息预期有所降温。根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具FedWatch Tool的数据，美联储12月降息25个 基点的概率跌破50%，仅有44.4%，维持利率不变的概率升至55.6%。当前市场进一步预期美联储主席鲍 威尔任期内不再降息，未来剩余降息空间均在2026年2季度之后。此外，美国政府历史上持续时间最长 的停摆已结束，不确定性有所降低，但市场交易已相对充分。 中长期来看，当前支撑金价上涨的因素仍未改变。全球逆全球化、不确定性增加以及主要国家增长依赖 债务等，导致储备资产从美元、欧元、日元等外溢 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently surged, with spot gold and Comex gold approaching $4100 per ounce, marking a new high for November [1] - The resilience of gold prices is attributed to factors such as easing trade tensions and a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, despite ongoing pressures from rising dollar index and Fed's hawkish stance [1][2] - The recent adjustment in gold value-added tax and slightly better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data have also contributed to gold's strong performance [1] Group 2 - Long-term factors supporting gold price increases remain unchanged, including rising global de-globalization, increased uncertainty, and reliance on debt for growth in major economies, leading to a shift towards safer gold assets [2] - According to the China Gold Association, domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 79.015 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 164.03% [2] - Central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, with China reporting a gold reserve of 7409 million ounces (approximately 2304.457 tons) as of the end of October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3 million ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 100% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool [2][3] - The rationale behind the rate cut includes addressing economic slowdown and stimulating recovery by reducing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators Influencing the Decision - Recent economic data, such as a significant drop in non-farm payrolls to 22,000 in August and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, suggest a weakening job market [3] - Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. GDP, is likely to be affected by limited income growth due to the weak job market [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Historically, in a preemptive rate cut environment, U.S. stock markets tend to show resilience, supported by lower financing costs for companies [5] - Rate-sensitive sectors, particularly technology and small-cap stocks, are expected to perform well during this period [5] - Bond prices are anticipated to rise as a result of the rate cut, with long-term bonds benefiting the most [5] Group 4: Global Market Impact - A weaker dollar is expected as a result of the rate cut, which may lead to capital flowing into emerging markets, particularly in Asia [6][7] - Commodity prices, especially gold, are likely to rise during the rate cut cycle, with historical data showing a high success rate for gold in such periods [7] Group 5: A-shares Market Outlook - The anticipated rate cut is viewed positively for the A-shares market, with expectations of increased foreign investment and improved market liquidity [9] - Sectors such as technology and finance are expected to benefit from lower financing costs and improved economic outlook [9]