Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is gaining attention due to the deep adjustments in the global economic landscape and the shift in major central banks' monetary policies, with rising debt expectations providing solid support for gold and silver prices, highlighting their safe-haven and anti-inflation properties in the current environment [1] Monetary Policy Shift - The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a core variable affecting global asset prices. Current complex economic data in the U.S. shows manufacturing PMI below the growth line for several months, while the job market shows signs of volatility. Inflation, although down from its peak, remains sticky, reinforcing market expectations for future rate cuts and a "technical expansion" of the balance sheet [2] - The Federal Reserve plans to end balance sheet reduction by December 2025 and initiate a monthly "Reserve Management Purchase" plan of approximately $40 billion to address liquidity pressures in April 2026, interpreted by the market as a signal of easing [2] Fiscal Expansion and Debt Growth - Global trends toward fiscal expansion support precious metals. The U.S. government debt ceiling has been raised again, with significant projected deficits due to the "big beautiful" plan from the Trump administration, leading to concerns about the long-term value of the dollar [3] - The European Union is loosening fiscal discipline in response to geopolitical pressures, allowing member states to increase defense spending, while the UK plans to increase investments despite rising net debt [3] Correlation with Sovereign Debt - Japan's recent announcement of an economic stimulus plan exceeding 21 trillion yen, partially funded by new bonds, indicates a strong positive correlation between gold prices and the total outstanding debt of major economies like the U.S., EU, UK, and Japan. The expansion of sovereign debt erodes currency purchasing power, enhancing gold's value as a safe-haven asset [4] Multi-layered Support for Precious Metals - In addition to macroeconomic factors, other elements provide multi-layered support for precious metal prices. Central banks have been increasing gold reserves since 2023, reflecting diversification needs and long-term strategic considerations for a diversified international monetary system [5] - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, continue to create uncertainty, potentially driving safe-haven buying [5] - Industrial demand for silver is expected to grow due to advancements in green technology and AI, with the World Silver Association predicting a widening supply-demand gap by 2026, enhancing price elasticity [5] Market Outlook - Overall, the precious metals market is expected to see upward price movement supported by global debt expansion, a shift toward monetary easing, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a scenario where prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall [6]

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices reached a historic high of $3616.9 per ounce, with an increase of over 7.5% since August [1] - Several gold ETFs, such as Yongying CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock ETF and Guotai CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock ETF, have also reached new net asset value highs [1] Group 2 - The fund manager of Yongying CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock ETF noted that Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting have led the market to interpret a potential interest rate cut in September [3] - Huashan Fund indicated that the high levels of U.S. debt and interest costs are prompting President Trump to seek interest rate cuts to alleviate the debt burden [3] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen following Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, which may impact market sentiment [3] - Huashan Fund also highlighted that the current "high interest rates + high debt" scenario results in significant interest costs for U.S. government debt, maintaining risks related to U.S. Treasury and dollar credit [3] - There is an expectation that global central banks may continue to increase gold holdings while reducing dollar assets to diversify foreign exchange reserves, making gold's future performance promising [3]