Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is gaining attention due to the deep adjustments in the global economic landscape and the shift in major central banks' monetary policies, with rising debt expectations providing solid support for gold and silver prices, highlighting their safe-haven and anti-inflation properties in the current environment [1] Monetary Policy Shift - The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a core variable affecting global asset prices. Current complex economic data in the U.S. shows manufacturing PMI below the growth line for several months, while the job market shows signs of volatility. Inflation, although down from its peak, remains sticky, reinforcing market expectations for future rate cuts and a "technical expansion" of the balance sheet [2] - The Federal Reserve plans to end balance sheet reduction by December 2025 and initiate a monthly "Reserve Management Purchase" plan of approximately $40 billion to address liquidity pressures in April 2026, interpreted by the market as a signal of easing [2] Fiscal Expansion and Debt Growth - Global trends toward fiscal expansion support precious metals. The U.S. government debt ceiling has been raised again, with significant projected deficits due to the "big beautiful" plan from the Trump administration, leading to concerns about the long-term value of the dollar [3] - The European Union is loosening fiscal discipline in response to geopolitical pressures, allowing member states to increase defense spending, while the UK plans to increase investments despite rising net debt [3] Correlation with Sovereign Debt - Japan's recent announcement of an economic stimulus plan exceeding 21 trillion yen, partially funded by new bonds, indicates a strong positive correlation between gold prices and the total outstanding debt of major economies like the U.S., EU, UK, and Japan. The expansion of sovereign debt erodes currency purchasing power, enhancing gold's value as a safe-haven asset [4] Multi-layered Support for Precious Metals - In addition to macroeconomic factors, other elements provide multi-layered support for precious metal prices. Central banks have been increasing gold reserves since 2023, reflecting diversification needs and long-term strategic considerations for a diversified international monetary system [5] - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, continue to create uncertainty, potentially driving safe-haven buying [5] - Industrial demand for silver is expected to grow due to advancements in green technology and AI, with the World Silver Association predicting a widening supply-demand gap by 2026, enhancing price elasticity [5] Market Outlook - Overall, the precious metals market is expected to see upward price movement supported by global debt expansion, a shift toward monetary easing, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a scenario where prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The expected Fed balance - sheet expansion and global debt inflation support precious metal prices. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in December and in 2026 - 2027, and start monthly reserve management purchases of short - term Treasuries, which is a technical balance - sheet expansion exceeding expectations. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries lead to expectations of debt inflation and fiscal deficit expansion. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold - buying also support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] - The supply - demand situation of platinum and palladium is different. Platinum supply is expected to be tight in 2025 - 2026, with supply gaps of 26 and 18 tons respectively, and an average annual supply - demand gap of about 19 tons until 2029. Palladium supply is expected to change from tight to loose, with supply gaps of 8 and 3 tons in 2025 - 2026 and a looser supply - demand situation in 2027 [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 12, 2025, the closing price was 957.90 yuan/gram, down 3.14 from the previous week and up 1.50 from the previous day. Trading volume was 242,710, and open interest was 192,178. Inventory was 91,302 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The closing price was 952.35 yuan/gram, down 3.65 from the previous week. Trading volume was 33,596, and open interest was 200,796 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 14,447 yuan/kg, up 70 from the previous day and 808 from the previous week. Trading volume was 894,426, and open interest was 3,823,854 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: Relevant trading and position data are also provided, along with information on spreads and basis [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,309.30 dollars/ounce, up 74.50 from the previous day. Trading volume was 220,543, and open interest was 321,283. Inventory was 36,115,605.50 (in troy ounces) [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 1.78 dollars/ounce, up 5.05 from the previous week. Trading volume was 118,368, and open interest was 118,097. Inventory was 455,817,117.44 (in troy ounces) [1] Important Information - US initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 last week, the largest increase since 2020, and continuing claims dropped to an 8 - month low. The US trade deficit in September fell to a five - year low [1] - Global long - term bond yields soared to a 16 - year high, and the market bets that the global interest - rate cut cycle is about to end [1] Trading Strategies Gold and Silver - Adopt a long - position strategy when prices fall. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4400 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, focus on support levels around 890 - 920 and resistance levels around 1000 - 1050. For London silver, focus on support levels around 49 - 54 and resistance levels around 63 - 72; for Shanghai silver, focus on support levels around 11500 - 12500 and resistance levels around 15000 - 16000 [1] Platinum - Unilaterally establish long positions when prices fall, and cautiously hold long positions in the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy. For London platinum, focus on support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, focus on support levels around 335 - 385 and resistance levels around 465 - 516 [1] Palladium - Unilaterally establish long positions when prices fall. For London palladium, focus on support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium, focus on support levels around 305 - 357 and resistance levels around 415 - 465 [1]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expected Fed rate cuts and global debt inflation are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium to long term. However, high platinum and palladium prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to price adjustments [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Gold**: On December 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 951.13 yuan/gram, up 4.44 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 28,814, a decrease of 7,010 from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX gold futures was 4258.30 dollars/ounce, up 21.70 dollars from the previous week; the London gold spot price was 4200.15 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures was 14,377 yuan/kilogram, up 781 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 822,474, an increase of 47,084 from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX silver futures was 62.20 dollars/ounce, up 3.05 dollars from the previous day; the London silver spot price was 61.04 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: The price of INE crude oil was 443.70 yuan/barrel, down 2.40 yuan from the previous day; the price of ICE Brent crude oil was 62.52 dollars/barrel, up 0.40 dollars from the previous day. The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.30%, unchanged from the previous day; the U.S. 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.1300%, down 0.05 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Important News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects one rate cut next year and will buy 40 billion dollars of short - term bonds. Powell said the bond - buying scale may remain at a relatively high level in the next few months [1]. - Trump is conducting a "final interview" for the Fed chair position. Hassett is not yet a certainty, and Bessent still has a chance to succeed. Hassett said Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chair candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks and reiterated that the Fed still has significant room for rate cuts [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and is expected to cut rates once in 2026 and 2027, but the market expects two rate cuts in 2026. The Fed will start monthly reserve management purchases of short - term bonds worth 40 billion dollars on December 12, which may gradually slow down to 20 - 25 billion dollars per month later. Germany, Japan, and the UK have launched fiscal stimulus policies, leading to expectations of global debt inflation and fiscal deficit expansion. The 1 - month lease rate of London silver exceeds 6.4%, indicating a tight supply. Global central banks continue to buy gold, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the U.S. - Venezuela remain unresolved [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on buying on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3900 - 4100 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4400 - 4600 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 1000 - 1050 yuan/gram. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 63 - 72 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 11,500 - 12,500 yuan/kilogram and the resistance level around 15,000 - 16,000 yuan/kilogram [1]. 3.3.2 Platinum - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: On the supply side, high deep - mine mining costs, unstable power supply, and production equipment maintenance may reduce global platinum production to 169 tons in 2025, and recycled platinum production may grow slowly to 50 tons. In 2026, global platinum production may reach 174 tons, and recycled platinum production may be 53 tons, with the total supply increasing to 227 tons. On the demand side, stricter emission standards increase the demand for platinum in traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles, and there is optimistic demand in industrial fields such as hydrogen production. However, there are concerns about a decline in jewelry and investment demand. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) predicts supply shortages of 26 tons in 2025 and 18 tons in 2026, with an average annual shortage of about 19 tons until at least 2029. High platinum prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profits on previous long positions on price rallies and hold "long platinum, short palladium" positions cautiously. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1300 - 1500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000 dollars/ounce; for domestic platinum, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 465 - 516 yuan/gram [1]. 3.3.3 Palladium - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: On the supply side, deep - mine mining, power shortages, labor disputes, and lower ore grades affect palladium production, but the recycling supply is expected to increase from 2026 - 2027 due to the vehicle scrapping cycle in China and globally. In 2025, the production of mined and recycled palladium may be 199 tons and 92 tons respectively, with a total supply of 291 tons. In 2026, the production of mined and recycled palladium may be 194 tons and 98 tons respectively, with a total supply of 292 tons. On the demand side, stricter emission standards and the development of new - energy vehicles reduce the demand for palladium in the automotive sector, while the demand in industrial and medical fields is relatively inelastic. The World Platinum Investment Association (WIIC) predicts supply shortages of 8 tons in 2025 and 3 tons in 2026, with the supply - demand situation expected to ease in 2027 [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profits on previous long positions on price rallies. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1190 - 1390 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800 dollars/ounce; for domestic palladium, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 415 - 465 yuan/gram [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut remains high, with a probability of over 80%. However, concerns about the rebound of consumer - end inflation may make Fed Chairman Powell's stance more cautious. Fiscal easing policies in Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK have led to expectations of global debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. The 1 - month lease rate of London silver exceeding 6.5% has created an expectation of tight supply. Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US - Venezuela are persistent. These factors are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data 3.1.1 Shanghai Gold - Closing prices on different dates were 953.43, 946.69, 949.54 yuan/gram, with changes of - 2.85 and - 6.74 compared to previous values. Trading volumes were 35824.00, 43378.00, etc., with corresponding changes. Open interest also showed fluctuations [1]. 3.1.2 Shanghai Silver - Closing prices were - 53.00, 13596.00, 13649.00 yuan/kg, with changes. Trading volumes and open interest also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.1.3 COMEX Gold Futures - Closing prices were 16.70, 4236.60, 4219.90, with changes of - 28.40. Trading volumes, open interest, and inventory (in troy ounces) also had specific values and changes [1]. 3.1.4 International Gold and Related Indices - London gold spot prices were 4188.25, 4198.00, 4238.85 dollars/ounce, with changes. SPDR and iShare gold ETF holdings also had corresponding values and changes [1]. 3.1.5 Gold - to - Silver Price Ratio - Ratios such as Shanghai gold/Shanghai silver, New York gold/New York silver, and London gold/London silver had different values and changes [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Trump suggested that interest rate cuts are a test for the new Fed chairman, considering two candidates, and may adjust tariffs to lower prices of some goods. Hassett believed that the Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points [1]. - The US "small non - farm" ADP data improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4750 jobs per week, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Fed's un - emphasized employment indicator, the October JOLTS job openings, rose to a five - month high, but recruitment decreased and lay - offs reached a two - year high [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: Mixed employment data in the US, some Fed officials supporting a December rate cut, and Trump's hint about a new Fed chairman candidate have increased the probability of a December rate cut. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries have led to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficits. The high lease rate of London silver has created a tight supply expectation, and geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases support precious metal prices [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on buying on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, support levels around 890 - 920 and resistance levels around 970 - 1000. For London silver, support levels around 49 - 54 and resistance levels around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, support levels around 11500 - 12500 and resistance levels around 14000 - 15000 [1]. 3.3.2 Platinum - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: In 2025 - 2026, global platinum supply is expected to be tight, with production affected by factors such as high mining costs and slow growth in recycled platinum. Demand from traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles is expected to increase due to stricter emission standards, and there is optimistic demand in industrial fields. The Fed's December rate cut expectation and tight supply - demand situation may push platinum prices higher [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on buying on price dips. For London platinum, pay attention to support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, support levels around 335 - 385 and resistance levels around 465 - 516 [1]. 3.3.3 Palladium - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: In 2025 - 2026, there will be a supply gap in palladium, but the supply - demand situation is expected to ease in 2027. Supply is affected by mining difficulties, while demand from the automotive sector is expected to decline due to emission standards and the development of new - energy vehicles. The Fed's December rate cut expectation and the changing supply - demand situation may make palladium prices rise cautiously [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on buying on price dips. For London palladium, pay attention to support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium, support levels around 305 - 357 and resistance levels around 415 - 465 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the Fed's expected rate cut in December, global debt expansion, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term. However, the high price of platinum may curb downstream demand, and the supply - demand situation of lithium is expected to shift from tight to loose, which may lead to price adjustments for both [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 958.27 yuan/gram, with a change of 7.56 compared to the previous day and - 2.27 compared to the previous week. International gold's COMEX futures active contract closing price was 4227.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 13687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week. International silver's COMEX futures active contract closing price was 58.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week [1]. 3.2 Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1]. - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest point at the beginning of the year [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Logic - **Gold and Silver**: The mixed performance of the US economic and employment data, along with some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut, keeps the probability of a December rate cut above 80%. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries lead to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth, and central banks' continuous gold - buying, along with geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Platinum**: High mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging equipment limit platinum production, while increased demand from traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles due to stricter emission standards and optimistic demand from other industries lead to a tight global platinum supply - demand situation in 2025 - 2026. However, high platinum prices may curb downstream demand [1]. - **Lithium**: Supply is affected by deep - mine mining, power shortages, etc., but increased recycling is expected. Demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, while demand from other industries has low elasticity. The global lithium supply - demand situation is expected to shift from tight to loose in 2025 - 2026 [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: When prices decline, it is advisable to go long. For London gold, pay attention to support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, support levels are around 890 - 920 and resistance levels are around 970 - 1000. For London silver, support levels are around 49 - 54 and resistance levels are around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, support levels are around 12500 - 15000 and resistance levels are around 14000 - 15000 [1]. - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Hold "long platinum, short palladium" positions cautiously. For London platinum, pay attention to support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, support levels are around 335 - 385 and resistance levels are around 465 - 516 [1]. - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For London lithium, pay attention to support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic lithium, support levels are around 305 - 357 and resistance levels are around 415 - 465 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Global debt inflation expectations support precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still over 80%, and multiple countries' governments have introduced fiscal easing policies, leading to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. Central banks of many countries are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the long - and medium - term [1] - The global platinum supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, but high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand and cause price adjustments [1] - The global lithium supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 may change from tight to loose, and multiple factors may cause lithium price adjustments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 961.04 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.24 compared to the previous day and 7.62 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 237,697.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 91,299.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,237.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 190,889.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 36,310,675.24 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,200.60 dollars/ounce [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13,687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 2,703,384.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 687,956.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 53.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 5,227.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 457,220,650.80 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 57.57 dollars/ounce [1] Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2,305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1] - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1] Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,900 - 4,100 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 12,500 - 15,000 and the resistance level around 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and cautiously hold "long platinum, short palladium" long positions. For London platinum price, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum price, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1] - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading. For London lithium price, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic lithium price, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1]

Group 1: Gold Futures Performance - The main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 961.04 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.36% [1] - The opening price for the day was 954.50 CNY per gram, with a highest price of 962.30 CNY and a lowest price of 952.62 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - In November, the U.S. non-farm employment positions decreased by 9,000, with October's figure revised down to a reduction of 15,500 [1] - The Challenger report indicated that U.S. companies laid off 71,000 employees in November, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 24% [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in December, with the government likely to tolerate this move [1] - The European Union aims to break down national barriers in financial services, targeting 33 trillion euros in household savings to create a unified capital market [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The U.S. economic and employment data presents mixed signals, with some Federal Reserve officials supporting a rate cut in December, leading to an over 80% probability of a rate cut [1] - Germany, the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. have introduced fiscal stimulus policies, contributing to expectations of rising global debt and fiscal deficits [1] - Central banks worldwide continue to purchase gold, with the one-month borrowing rate for silver in London exceeding 5.7%, while geopolitical risks in regions like Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View - Multiple Fed officials' hawkish remarks have increased the uncertainty of future expectations, causing short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, factors such as global debt expansion, fiscal deficit, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 947.98 yuan/gram, with a daily change of - 10.69 yuan and a weekly change of 14.96 yuan. The trading volume was 45,922, with a daily decrease of 20,686 and a weekly decrease of 5,282. The open interest decreased by 16,690 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 12,351 yuan/ten - gram, with a daily change of - 237 yuan and a weekly change of 632 yuan. The trading volume was 1,026,209, with a daily decrease of 104,492 and a weekly increase of 10,299 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 4,174.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 99.60 dollars and a weekly change of - 90.10 dollars. The trading volume was 332,490, with a daily increase of 30,017 and a weekly increase of 148,845 [1]. - **International Gold and Silver**: London gold spot price was 4,071.10 dollars/ounce, down 124.55 dollars from the previous day. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,044 tons, an increase of 3.65 tons from the previous day [1]. 2. Important Information - Fed hawks oppose a December rate cut, and as of last Friday, the market's expectation of a December rate cut has dropped to 40%. The US will release important economic data on November 20 (September non - farm payrolls) and November 26 (Fed - preferred indicator PCB) [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall before placing long orders. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,850 - 3,950 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 870 - 890 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 960 - 1,000 yuan/gram [1].

Core Insights - Gold prices have shown volatility in 2025, initially breaking the $3500 mark before dropping to around $3120, reflecting a decline of over 10% within a week, followed by a rebound to $3365 [1] - Central banks globally have been accumulating gold at an unprecedented rate, with Q1 2025 seeing purchases of 244 tons, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of over 100 tons [3] - The traditional safe-haven status of gold appears to be weakening, as recent U.S. economic data and U.S.-China trade negotiations have not revealed significant risk factors [3] Central Bank Activity - Poland's central bank increased its gold reserves by 29 tons in a single month, while countries like Kazakhstan opted to sell, indicating a divergence in national strategies regarding the dollar credit system [3] - The World Gold Council reported that global investment demand for gold surged by 170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while gold jewelry consumption fell by 32%, indicating a shift from commodity to financial attributes [7] Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs noted that approximately 35% of current gold prices reflect non-traditional factors, a 12 percentage point increase from 2024, influenced by macroeconomic variables like dollar credit crises and global debt expansion [5] - The volatility in gold prices is exacerbated by external factors such as trade tensions and geopolitical events, with significant price fluctuations observed in response to U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments on tariff negotiations [5][7] Investment Strategies - Experts recommend that investors consider multiple factors such as changes in safe-haven demand, dollar exchange rates, and global economic data when making investment decisions [7] - Suggested strategies include avoiding herd mentality, diversifying investment channels, and setting clear stop-loss levels to manage risk effectively [7] Future Outlook - The trend of increasing central bank gold purchases is expected to continue, primarily driven by the need to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets amid rising U.S. policy uncertainties and concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt [9] - As gold becomes more driven by investment demand, its prices are likely to be more sensitive to capital flows, reflecting broader shifts in the global monetary system [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices to $3,300 per ounce is primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the potential military action by Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities, alongside expectations of economic slowdown and inflation in the U.S. which are favorable for gold [1][4]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include: - **Dollar Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Policy**: A weaker dollar enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. The current dollar index is around 100, providing support for gold prices. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 (projected cuts of 75-100 basis points) reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, benefiting its price [7]. - **Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand**: Recent fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies and uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire have heightened risk aversion. Historical data indicates that geopolitical conflicts typically boost gold prices by approximately 12% [7]. - **Inflation Outlook**: Gold is known for its anti-inflation properties. As a non-fiat currency, its scarcity and stability make it a valuable asset during periods of declining purchasing power of paper currency. For instance, during the high inflation period of the 1970s in the U.S., gold prices soared from $35 to $800 per ounce [7]. - **Central Bank Purchases and Supply-Demand Dynamics**: In 2024, global central banks are expected to net purchase 1,045 tons of gold, reflecting a continued trend of de-dollarization in emerging markets [7]. 2025 Gold Price Outlook - Currently, gold prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations, with resistance at $3,500 per ounce and support between $2,900 and $3,200 per ounce. Financial institutions predict that gold prices may exceed $4,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by global debt expansion, with U.S. debt projected to reach $44 trillion, and potential restructuring of the monetary system [9]. - Gold is increasingly viewed as a viable asset allocation option, with recommendations suggesting that gold should not exceed 20% of household assets. A diversified approach involving gold ETFs, physical gold bars, and mining stocks is advised to mitigate risks. Gold serves as a long-term tool against credit depreciation, despite experiencing a prolonged bear market from 2011 to 2015 [9]. - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are likely influenced by Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to weakening dollar credit and global debt risks [9].