美元指数目前在98.65阻力位下方盘整，价格受到7月末高点延伸出的"下降趋势线"压制。该指数已在 97.90附近找到支撑，且维持在50期与100期指数移动平均线(EMA)上方，这一技术形态表明短期市场呈 现"看涨动能"。 在杰克森霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威尔明确释放降息信号，为9月可能开启的宽松政策铺平道路，导致 美元承压下行。目前市场普遍预期美联储将在9月会议上降息25个基点，并在年底前累计降息接近50个 基点。高盛分析师指出，尽管鲍威尔此次讲话内容未明显超出市场预期，但在当前经济数据表现错综的 背景下，其表态进一步巩固了降息预期，强化了货币政策转向的共识。投资者的关注点现已转向即将发 布的PCE物价指数和8月非农就业报告，以从中获取更多政策路径的确认信号。除经济数据外，政治不 确定性也在加剧美元的压力。美国总统特朗普近期多次公开批评美联储的政策立场，甚至威胁解雇美联 储理事库克，此举再度引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。政治干扰言论叠加偏弱的基本面背景，令美元在 短期内仍面临持续的下行风险。 周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.32，跌幅0.08%，开盘价为98.44。美元仍未摆脱上周 五美联储主席 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are notable for the rare occurrence of two board members voting against the majority, a situation not seen since 1993, indicating significant internal division which is often viewed as a signal for a shift in monetary policy [1] - The main points of disagreement among the Federal Reserve members revolve around three key areas: the outlook on inflation, the assessment of the labor market recovery, and the timing of balance sheet reduction [1][2] - The global central banks are facing similar decision-making dilemmas, with the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan also at critical junctures regarding their monetary policies, influenced by upcoming economic data releases [4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole meeting is highly anticipated, as he is expected to provide clarity on the "divided minutes" and potentially offer guidance on the balance sheet reduction path and adjustments to the inflation target framework [4] - The decisions made by central banks globally are crucial as they could trigger chain reactions in the financial markets, affecting capital flows between safe-haven assets and emerging markets [4][5]

接下来，市场焦点将转向周五将公布的零售销售月率。有恐怖数据之称的消费者支出晴雨表将成为外界 评估美股经济韧性的重要参考，华尔街预计，7月零售月率环比上升0.5%，较6月回落0.1个百分点，这 可能将成为劳动力市场环境变化的缩影。数据不及预期或进一步加剧外界对美国经济动能的担忧，加大 货币政策转向压力。 美联储主席候选范围扩大 美联储观察工具显示，9月降息的可能性达100%。 事实上，在最新非农报告公布后，降息概率就开始水涨船高。机构已经逐步调整对美联储政策的判断， 包括摩根大通、高盛在内的大行均将美联储今年首次降息时间窗口提前至9月。 当地时间周三，随着市场进一步消化7月通胀数据，利率市场定价完全消化了美联储下月降息的预期。 美国财政部长贝森特向媒体表示，鉴于就业数据疲软，他认为美联储届时有可能大幅降息50个基点，而 不是传统的25个基点。 贝森特当天向媒体表示，美联储去年9月以对就业市场疲软的担忧为理由进行了更大幅度的降息，这一 次也会如此。他的论点源于美国劳工统计局最近发布的就业报告，与5月和6月的初步估计相比，最新数 据下修了超过25万人。"如果在5月和6月看到这些数字，我怀疑我们可能会在6月和7月降息 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and urges the Fed to initiate a cut at the September meeting, believing that tariff-driven price increases are unlikely to sustain inflation [1][3] - Current investor sentiment indicates an 88.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with market speculation shifting towards a potential 50 basis point cut [1][3] - Recent comments from various Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, have signaled a dovish stance, advocating for a prompt rate cut [3] Group 2 - The shift in Federal Reserve officials' attitudes is largely attributed to the July non-farm payroll report, which showed a significant cooling in the labor market, with only 73,000 new jobs added, below expectations, and an upward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in previous months [3] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, further indicating labor market deterioration [3] - Upcoming key data releases, including the July CPI on August 12 and July PPI on August 14, will provide important insights for the Fed's monetary policy adjustments [3] Group 3 - Despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, market focus should remain on Chairman Powell, who may signal a shift in monetary policy focus from inflation to the labor market at the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for August 21-23 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller, a prominent "hawk" within the Federal Reserve, is being considered as a potential candidate for the Fed Chair by Trump's team, which could lead to significant shifts in global monetary policy [2]. Group 1: Waller's Policy Stance - Waller is known for being the most steadfast hawk within the Federal Reserve, advocating for interest rate hikes up to 6% [3]. - He introduced the "Waller Rule," which states that interest rates must be raised if the unemployment rate falls below 4% [3]. - Waller has publicly opposed Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), arguing that they pose a threat to financial freedom [3]. Group 2: Implications of Waller's Potential Appointment - Waller's hawkish stance aligns with Trump's image as a "fighter against inflation," potentially influencing economic policy direction [4]. - His appointment could serve to counterbalance current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is viewed as a guardian of Biden's political legacy [4]. - Waller has strong ties with major Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan, which may affect market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Potential Market Impact - If appointed, Waller may accelerate the balance sheet reduction, leading to a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve [4]. - Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, could face stricter regulations under Waller's leadership [4]. - There may be an increasing divergence in policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, putting pressure on the Euro [4]. Group 4: Broader Context - The ongoing competition for the Federal Reserve Chair position highlights a deeper crisis of politicization within U.S. monetary policy [4]. - The independence of the central bank may be challenged by electoral politics, making the Fed a significant source of uncertainty in global financial markets by 2025 [4].

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio faces significant political pressure following a historic electoral defeat, leading to a critical test of investor interest in 40-year government bond auctions [1] - The Japanese government plans to issue approximately 28.65 trillion yen in new national bonds for the fiscal year 2025, despite a slight reduction from the previous fiscal year, raising concerns among investors due to Japan's high debt levels [1][4] - The total budget for the Japanese government in fiscal year 2025 reaches a record high of 115.54 trillion yen, with social security costs rising to 38.28 trillion yen and debt repayment and interest payments reaching 28.22 trillion yen, indicating substantial fiscal pressure [4] Group 2 - Market analysts express concerns that the recent election results may lead to increased upward pressure on long-term bond yields due to potential fiscal expansion [4][5] - The upcoming bond auction is expected to be influenced by the government's fiscal policies and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the bond market until clearer fiscal policy direction is established [5] - The volatility risk surrounding the 40-year bond auction remains, as the government may continue to pursue expansionary policies to gain support from smaller political parties [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggests the possibility of interest rate cuts in July, despite strong employment data in June, indicating that current policy rates are "too high" [1][3] - Waller notes that inflation has "clearly cooled" and the labor market is becoming "stable," supporting a gradual shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3] - His remarks are particularly significant as he is one of the few members advocating for rate cuts in the near term, positioning him as a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chair [3][4] Group 2 - Waller emphasizes that his support for a July rate cut is based purely on economic logic, not political influences, asserting that the central bank's decisions should be guided by inflation and employment targets [3] - The market response to Waller's statements adds uncertainty to the upcoming July FOMC meeting, with investors divided on the timing of a potential rate cut cycle starting in the second half of 2025 [3][4] - Waller's comments serve as an independent interpretation of economic data and may signal an early shift in monetary policy direction, warranting attention to the positions of other key Federal Reserve officials [4]

Group 1 - Bitcoin has surged past $116,500 with a 48% increase in 24-hour trading volume, indicating strong market momentum [2] - Whale addresses have accumulated over 23,000 BTC in the past week, with institutional holdings reaching a yearly high [2] - The derivatives market has seen open interest surpassing $38 billion, with market sentiment entering the "extreme greed" zone [2] Group 2 - The approval of the first batch of virtual asset spot ETFs by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission marks a significant regulatory development [3] - Ethereum Layer 2 total locked value has exceeded $45 billion, reflecting growing interest in scaling solutions [3] - AI and blockchain project financing in Q2 has increased by 215% quarter-over-quarter, indicating a surge in innovation [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests a three-phase bull market progression: Bitcoin's initial surge, followed by mainstream coins, and finally an explosion of quality altcoins [3] - Current market selection criteria for alpha projects include a market cap between $1-5 billion, daily trading volume above $30 million, real revenue scenarios, and institutional holdings exceeding 15% [3] Group 4 - DHP is highlighted as a standout project in the Real World Asset (RWA) sector, with a unique value proposition and strong community engagement [3] - The project has achieved a 67% repurchase rate for physical products and has integrated with 12 DEXs and 8 DeFi protocols [3] - The first round of node subscription is set from July 12 to July 22, with a projected annual return of 20% and a static payback period of approximately 8 months [3] Group 5 - The market outlook suggests that with the onset of Federal Reserve easing, the crypto market is entering an optimal configuration period not seen in three years [4] - DHP's dual-driven model of "physical + digital" is expected to facilitate significant growth in the upcoming bull market [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the first round of node subscriptions starting July 12 for early participation benefits [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weak US dollar boosts market risk appetite, and base metal prices oscillate upwards. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand expectations are intertwined, with non - ferrous metals oscillating higher. Pay attention to structural opportunities and short - term long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider shorting opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index declines, and copper prices operate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The 2025 mid - year TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. May electrolytic copper output increased. Spot copper premiums rose, and copper inventories decreased [3]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, expectations of Fed rate cuts drive the US dollar index down, boosting copper prices. Supply - side raw material shortages lead to smelter production cuts. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventories support prices. There is also a risk of a short squeeze on the LME [4]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventories support copper prices. In the short term, copper may show high - level oscillations [4]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipt numbers remain low, and the alumina futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or slightly changed. An overseas transaction price increased. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE were flat [5][6]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, with rising production capacity and inventories, and a downward - moving spot price center. However, significant warehouse receipt reduction causes concerns. Long - term events have limited impact for now [5]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it oscillates weakly. Observe near - month warehouse receipt numbers. Consider shorting cautiously after the far - month contract rises further. Participate in reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase or there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the near - month contract [5]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed, and electrolytic aluminum prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories increased [7][12]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts ease, the US dollar weakens, and risk appetite recovers. Domestic inventories are accumulating, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, aluminum demand depends on actual consumption [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, market sentiment improves, and prices may oscillate strongly. In the long term, consumption is a concern, and consider shorting on price rallies [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: The price of ADC12 decreased, and there are uncertainties in trade policies [9]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term costs are driven up by aluminum prices, but demand is seasonally weak. In the future, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may rise [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate weakly, and the futures market follows electrolytic aluminum. In the medium term, there is room for price recovery [10]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are slightly oversupplied, and pay attention to shorting opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Information Analysis**: Spot premiums vary in different regions, inventories increased, and a mine's production forecast is adjusted [10][13]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the situation is neutral. Supply is loosening, and smelters are profitable. Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. In the long term, supply will increase while demand growth is limited [14]. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc production will increase, demand will weaken, and inventories will accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Scrap battery prices are stable, lead ingot prices decreased slightly, and inventories increased slightly [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, premiums are stable. Supply - side production may decrease slightly, and demand - side battery factory operating rates are recovering [15]. - **Outlook**: After tariff cuts, demand recovers, and supply may decrease. Cost support is strong, and lead prices will oscillate [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesian nickel enterprises' construction accelerates, and nickel prices oscillate widely in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: LME and SHFE nickel inventories changed, and there are multiple industry - related events such as project construction and policy changes [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Raw material supply may loosen, and there is an oversupply of electrolytic nickel with high inventories [20]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment improves. Long - term positions can be closed. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [20]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market oscillates weakly. - **Information Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased, spot premiums exist, and there are industry - related events in Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policies [21][23]. - **Main Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening, and steel mills are under pressure. Production may decrease, and demand may weaken. Inventory accumulation is limited [26]. - **Outlook**: Cost support weakens, but price drops may lead to production cuts. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes. In the short term, it may maintain range - bound oscillations [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Warehouse receipts on the LME were flat, and those on the SHFE increased. Spot prices decreased [26][27]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic tin ore shortages are intensifying, and Indonesian export license replacement causes supply problems. Supply is expected to decrease, but demand may weaken in the second half of the year [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are supported by tight ore supply. The extent of the transmission of ore shortages to ingot supply will determine the price level in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [27].

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 21% to 20%, indicating a slight easing of inflation and signs of economic stabilization [1] - Experts believe that the rate cut will reduce domestic loan costs and support economic growth, with a decision on further rate cuts expected in December based on more economic data [1][5] - The Central Bank's discussions revealed differing opinions on whether to raise rates to 21% or tighten further to 22%, reflecting serious inflation risks and varying judgments on their impact [3] Group 2 - Despite tightening monetary policy, bond yields and money market rates have risen significantly, but the actual increase in rates has been less than expected due to rising inflation expectations [4] - The Central Bank's current monetary policy is considered insufficient to effectively curb price increases, with a high likelihood of another rate hike in the upcoming meeting [4][5] - December is seen as a critical juncture for monetary policy, with increased consumer activity and government spending, and more data available for assessing loan dynamics and inflation expectations [5] Group 3 - Analysts predict that inflation in Russia may continue to ease, laying the groundwork for a gradual shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [6][7] - The Moscow Exchange index rose to near a three-week high following the Central Bank's decision, indicating market optimism regarding potential changes in monetary policy [7] - The outlook for bank stocks and highly leveraged companies is positive, as rate cuts could lower interest expenses and debt burdens, enhancing growth and investment appeal [7]