小栗太：从2025年秋季开始持续的主要货币当中"欧元一强"格局开始出现阴影。这是因为对 日美货币政策转向鹰派的预期迅速浮出水面。随着外汇市场的焦点从财政政策转向货币政 策，对资金将从欧元回归日元和美元的预测正在逐渐扩散…… 小栗太： 从2025年秋季开始持续的主要货币当中"欧元一强"格局开始出现阴影。这是因为对 日美货币政策转向鹰派的预期迅速浮出水面。随着外汇市场的焦点从财政政策转向货币政 策，认为投资资金将从欧元回归日元和美元的预测正在逐渐扩散。 不过，自民党在2月的众议院选举中取得压倒性胜利后，认为高市政府将考虑财政风险的看法 浮出水面。最近，日本央行提前启动新一轮加息的预期正在增强。 2026年初市场普遍预测会在今年6月或7月的货币政策会议进一步加息，而目前预测会在4月 会议加息的声音占主导地位。市场风险顾问公司（Market Risk Advisory）的深谷幸司表 示，"欧洲央行虽然结束了降息局面，但马上启动加息的可能性很小。目前为止资金从日元向 欧元的移动非常明显，相应地，今后日元对欧元有可能被大幅做多"。 关键在于主导市场价格波动的对冲基金等投机资金的动向。 从瑞穗银行根据美国商品期货交易委员会 ...

2月12日，周三国际现货黄金在多重利好因素的共振下稳步攀升。RYOEX表示，受益于美元指数的回落 以及美债收益率的持续走低，金价在当日早盘表现积极。目前现货黄金报价已来到5048.27美元一线， 而交投更活跃的4月期金则触及5072.60美元。这种强势表现反映出在关键宏观经济数据揭晓前，市场对 于货币政策转向的押注正在加码。 从外部环境来看，美元指数近期回落至近两周低位，极大降低了海外投资者持有黄金的成本。RYOEX 认为，更为核心的驱动力源于美债市场的定价逻辑转移。由于此前公布的零售数据表现疲软，且历史数 据遭到下修，基准10年期国债收益率已下探至一个月来的低点。这种收益率环境的恶化直接消减了持有 非生息资产的机会成本，使得黄金在投资组合中的防御与增值属性愈发凸显。 目前市场的震中无疑是即将发布的非农就业报告。RYOEX表示，经济学家普遍预计1月就业增长将保持 在7万人的低位水平，且失业率可能维持在4.4%的敏感区间。尤为值得关注的是，劳工统计局预计将大 幅下修至2025年3月为止的年度就业基准，缺口可能高达91.1万人。这种对就业市场"健康度"的重新评 估，无疑为市场对美联储宽松路径的预期提供了实证支撑。 ...

SHMET 网讯： 引 言 正文 近期，随着特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）出任下届美联储主席。市场的反应剧烈：现货黄金录得 1983 年以来最大的单日跌幅，迅速击穿 5000 美元大关，最大跌幅超 10%；白银更是跌幅一度突破 30%。比特币在 48 小时内从 10 万美元高位附近连续跌破多道心理防线，下探至 7万美元区 间，回撤幅度接近 30%；纳斯达克 100 指数则在折现率上移与缩表预期的双重预期之下，单周回撤明显。 沃什的缩表+降息： 美联储换帅预期变化、沃什的"降息+缩表"措施的登场，仿佛宣告了美联储从"最后贷款人"向"流动性守门人"的根本性转向。然而，真正决定全球资产走 向的，不是沃什"想做什么"，而是他能做什么、做到什么程度。 用缩表管通胀，用降息管融资 本篇报告从沃什的政策偏好与履历出发，系统梳理他面临的政治环境、他的政策主张，推演中期选举前后两阶段政策节奏，最终落到全球各类资产的重定 价逻辑与A股市场的影响传导上；并试图理解——在沃什时代，应该如何理解美联储政策转向对资本市场的真实影响。 而沃什的出发点则完全不同：他更在意的是"这算不算央行该做的事情"。在他看来，央行的职 ...

Group 1 - The gold market is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, supported by geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, monetary policy shifts, and supply-demand gaps, with mainstream institutions generally bullish on gold prices for the year [1][6][12] - China is a major consumer of gold, with significant public investment enthusiasm, and global geopolitical risks are providing continuous premium support for gold prices, which is expected to persist through 2026 [3][5] - Central bank gold purchases have become a structural driver for the gold market, with global net purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2025, marking a historical high, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026 [6][8] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have contributed approximately 12 percentage points to gold price increases this year, and any sudden developments, such as a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations, could lead to short-term price increases of 5%-25% [5][11] - The shift in global monetary policy, particularly anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to significantly lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its investment appeal [9][11] - The supply-demand imbalance in the gold market is projected to worsen by 2026, with demand reaching 5,270 tons and supply at only 4,950 tons, which will drive gold prices higher [12][14] Group 3 - Investment capital is increasingly focused on gold mining and equity control, with a projected supply-demand gap of 320 tons in 2026, reinforcing the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [14][15] - For individual investors, small-scale investments in gold are recommended, with strategies such as phased allocation and strict position control to manage risks while taking advantage of the long-term upward potential [15]

Group 1 - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices dropping over 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.09% [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell below 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 31 trading days, decreasing by 121.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The ETF market saw significant gains, particularly in the rare metals sector, with notable increases in stocks such as Dongfang Tantalum Industry and Zhongtung High-tech, which hit the daily limit [2] Group 2 - Analysts highlight that the limited reserves and high extraction difficulty of strategic minor metals, combined with rapidly growing demand from sectors like new energy and semiconductors, are intensifying supply-demand conflicts [3] - The collective price increase of minor metals is primarily driven by tight supply and explosive demand, particularly for tungsten, where domestic production is constrained by stricter environmental standards and rising operational costs [3] - Future price trends for rare metals are expected to rise due to resource scarcity, demand structure upgrades, and policy adjustments, benefiting companies with resource advantages and compliance in export channels [3]

Market Analysis - Recent historic declines in gold and silver prices raise the question of whether the bull market for these metals has ended[4] - The conditions for a market termination are not yet mature, as evidenced by historical bull markets in the 1970s and early 21st century[4] - Current market volatility appears localized, with limited spillover effects into broader equity and bond markets[4] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised margin requirements for gold and silver, indicating potential regulatory tightening[4] - Despite speculation about a shift in monetary policy with the nomination of Walsh, the overall direction remains accommodative, contrasting with past tightening periods in 1980 and 2011[4] Commodity Cycle Perspective - The current commodity cycle may still be in its early stages, with many energy and agricultural products showing insufficient price increases since 2020[4] - If the belief in a long-term commodity bull market persists, gold and silver may participate in future rallies, albeit with limited price elasticity[4] Investment Strategy - Following the recent significant drop in gold and silver prices, the market narrative may not be substantially affected in the short term[4] - Investors should monitor where capital flows from precious metals, potentially into undervalued commodities or shifts in stock market styles[4] - Short-term, the safe-haven appeal of gold and silver may diminish, prompting a focus on other assets like oil and bonds[4]

在政策不确定性持续升温的背景下，亚洲外汇市场整体维持观望基调。美元指数在疲弱劳动力数据影响 下短线承压回落，但周线仍保持相对强势，显示市场在降息预期与政策风险之间反复权衡。日元走势则 更多受到政治与财政因素主导。随着日本众议院选举临近，日元一度小幅反弹，但全周仍运行于偏弱区 间。民调结果显示，高市早苗领导的执政阵营有望扩大议会优势，这为财政扩张政策提供空间，同时也 加剧了市场对日本债务水平以及未来借贷成本上升的担忧。 对市场定价影响更为直接的，是一系列反映美国劳动力需求持续降温的经济数据。最新公布的初请失业 金人数明显高于市场预期，职位空缺数量降至 2020 年以来低位，企业裁员规模创下 2009 年以来同期新 高，招聘意向同步回落。在此推动下，美债收益率曲线快速陡峭化，10 年期与 2 年期美债利差一度逼 近四年来高位，显示市场正在提前为年中降息窗口进行定价。隔夜指数掉期数据显示，投资者普遍预期 美联储最早可能在 6 月启动降息，并在年内实施两到三次政策调整。 整体来看，政治层面对美联储的持续干预，与经济数据释放出的降温信号形成复杂共振。一方面，货币 政策独立性争议加剧了制度层面的不确定性；另一方面，就业与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the USD/CHF currency pair reflect a cautious investor sentiment towards the Swiss franc, influenced by a temporary slowdown in the dollar's strength and expectations of a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming March meeting has increased from 9.4% to 22.7%, indicating a growing market expectation for a more accommodative monetary policy [3]. - Recent labor market data shows signs of a slowdown in hiring demand, with December JOLTS job openings at 6.542 million, below the expected 7 million and the previous value of 6.928 million [4]. - The ADP report indicates that only 22,000 jobs were added in January, significantly lower than the 37,000 jobs added in December, further supporting the notion of a decelerating job market [4][5]. Group 2: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy - The Swiss National Bank is likely to maintain interest rates at 0% in the short term, focusing on inflation and price stability despite a complex global economic environment [6]. - SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasized the bank's commitment to ensuring price stability, which may lead to limited support for the Swiss franc in the near term [6]. - The fluctuations in the USD/CHF pair reflect a dynamic interplay between expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy shift and the SNB's stance on interest rates and inflation [7].

Group 1 - Bitcoin price experienced a significant drop on February 6, reaching a low of $59,800 before rebounding to around $64,000, still down over 10% from the previous trading day [1] - The price volatility within 24 hours showed a range of $17,000, indicating a highly unstable market environment [1] - Over the past 12 months, Bitcoin started at approximately $96,000, peaked at $126,000 in October, and has since seen a decline to around $64,000, nearly halving its market value from the October high [4] Group 2 - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq index rather than traditional assets like gold, suggesting it is viewed as a technology asset [5] - A significant amount of liquidations occurred, with $1.42 billion in liquidations reported in the past 24 hours, including $1.2 billion in long positions and $220 million in short positions [5][8] - The overall market saw over 590,000 liquidations, totaling $2.705 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for 52.5% of this amount [8] Group 3 - The market downturn is linked to multiple factors, including concentrated leverage unwinding and increased selling pressure, alongside investor concerns regarding potential shifts in monetary policy [11] - Recent news regarding the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chair has raised fears of a hawkish stance that could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market [11]

来源丨国际财闻汇 你是不是也曾遭遇过各种投资理财、购买保险的陷阱，却投诉无门？或手握第一线的真实投资故事，却无人关注？扫码留言，让你的声音"被看见、 被回应"！ 如果沃什无法在5月15日前获批，美联储将面临由谁指定临时主席的法律难题。相关法律并未给出明确答案，既可能由白宫介入，也可能由美联储理 事会自行决定。 分析认为，调查持续拖延不仅推迟特朗普希望推动的货币政策转向，也加剧了市场对美联储独立性受政治干预的担忧。多名共和党和民主党议员已表 态支持暂缓沃什提名，直至相关调查明确结束。 据彭博社报道，随着特朗普推动司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，其提名的接任人选凯文·沃什在5月中旬接掌美联储的前景正面临重大不确 定性。 报道指出，鲍威尔因美联储总部翻修工程问题遭到司法部调查，此举在国会引发强烈反弹。参议院银行委员会关键摇摆票、共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利 斯公开表示，在调查结束前将阻止任何美联储主席提名。 然而，特朗普本人却明确表态不会撤回调查，并多次公开指控鲍威尔存在严重失职甚至违法行为。特朗普还暗示，若有必要，愿意等到蒂利斯2027年 退休后再推动沃什获参议院确认。 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 【 热门视频推 ...