联系人：殷雯卿 （微信 yinwenqing15） 报告摘要 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 一、全球货币政策转向跟踪 1 、全球利率图谱：美联储重启降息周期，日央行超预期鹰派 1 、美联储缩表的流动性跟踪：量价指标均指向流动性收紧信号 缩表的"数量"跟踪信号：隔夜逆回购几乎耗尽、贴现窗口用量提升 2025 年 8-9 月，我们跟踪的全球 26 个主要经济体中有 13 个经济体降息。美联储 9 月降息 25bp 至 4%-4.25% ，符合市场预期。欧央行连续第二次"按兵 不动"。日央行维持政策利率不变，但两名票委投票反对维持利率不变，同时宣布减持 ETF 与 REITs ，较预期鹰派。 2 、全球利率预期：年内美联储预期降息 3 次，日央行加息 1 次 美联储 降息预期升温，从目前外资机构的预测值来看，到 2025 年末基准利率预测值中枢约 3.75% （对应年内累计降息 3 次）；而到 2026 年末基准利率预测 值中枢约 3.25% （对应本轮降息周期累计降息 5 次）。 欧元区 在 9 月议息会议后，降息预期进一步降温，市场普遍预期欧央行 ...

三大引擎持续给黄金"加油" 地缘政治这把火越烧越旺 俄乌冲突还没结束，中东又烽烟四起，加上今年全球70多个国家要举行大选，国际局势就像坐在火药桶上。这时候，黄金作为传 承千年的"避震器"，自然成为资金争抢的香饽饽。数据显示，每当风险事件爆发，黄金ETF持仓量就会激增20%以上。 货币政策大转向在即 美联储嘴上说着"不着急降息"，身体却很诚实。市场普遍预测今年至少会有两次降息，一旦利率下调，持有黄金的机会成本就大幅降 低。历史数据表明，美元指数每下跌1%，金价平均上涨0.8%，这种负相关关系在未来可能更加明显。 最近打开手机，满屏都是金价创新高的消息。你是不是也在纠结：现在上车还来得及吗？手里攒的"小金库"该不该继续捂着？别急，看完这篇分析再做决 定。 黄金为何突然"起飞"？ 2024年春天，黄金上演了一出"飞天记"——3月5日突破2100美元/盎司后，短短一个多月就飙到2400美元，这种涨势连华尔街老炮都直呼罕见。更惊人的 是，从2022年11月到2024年5月，金价累计上涨44%，完全无视美联储加息的大环境。这背后的逻辑，可不仅仅是简单的通胀预期。 中国央行已经连续18个月增持黄金，波兰、土耳其等新兴市场也 ...

日本央行宣布下季度将缩减超长期债券购买规模。 据周二发布的一份申明，日本央行下季度每月将购买3450亿日元（约合23亿美元）到期期限为10至25年的债券，低于本季度的4050亿日元，购买 量环比下降15%。 日本央行下季度所有期限债券的月度购买量预计将从本季度的3.705万亿日元降至3.3万亿日元，进一步偏离宽松的货币政策，越来越多的市场参与 者预期日本央行10月份将进一步加息。 近期，日本10年期以上债券受到重挫，年内跌幅已超9%，约为其他期限债券的两倍多。此轮抛售由多重因素驱动：顽固通胀迫使市场重新定价长 期利率，作为持有主力的寿险公司需求下降，加之政治动荡引发市场对政府扩大支出的担忧，致使超长期限债券尤为承压。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 三井住友信托资产管理公司高级策略师稻留胜俊表示，日本央行减少债券购买的规模略高于预期，可能会对债券市场产生轻微利空的影响。 尽管10至25年期债券及所有期限债券的购买量均有下降，25年以上到期债券的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown strong performance, with prices continuously breaking historical highs, driven by various factors including monetary policy shifts, central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Price Movements - On September 23, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.58%, reaching an intraday high of $3,824.60, marking a historical peak [1] - Year-to-date, international spot gold prices have risen approximately 43% from around $2,625 per ounce, while domestic market prices have increased about 38% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Influence - The recent rise in gold prices is directly influenced by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, which included a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25% on September 18 [3] - Market expectations indicate a 75.4% probability of cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve in 2025, reinforcing support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Global official institutions have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, with central banks net adding 166 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2025, continuing a trend of steady accumulation [4] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of over 90 central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting long-term recognition of gold's value [4] Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The current complex global geopolitical landscape, with ongoing tensions in various regions, has heightened market uncertainty and increased investor focus on asset safety [5] - Gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset has been further activated, making it a significant option for capital allocation in uncertain times [5] Group 5: Inflation and Investment Value - The structural volatility of global inflation has highlighted gold's value as a hedge against inflation, with U.S. inflation data rebounding to 2.9% in August, the second-highest this year [6] - The uncertain economic data and policy paths have attracted more medium- to long-term capital inflows into gold, emphasizing its property preservation characteristics [6]

Group 1 - The international gold price has reached a historical high of $3749.27 per ounce, while silver prices have also risen for the third consecutive trading day, nearing $44 per ounce, marking a 14-year high [1][2] - The recent surge in precious metal prices is primarily driven by rising expectations of a shift in major central banks' monetary policies, with investors anticipating a more accommodative monetary environment [2] - The significant increase in gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings indicates enhanced institutional allocation interest, with last Friday's single-day increase marking the highest in over three years [2] Group 2 - The silver market is performing strongly, with London spot silver prices hovering around $44 per ounce, the highest level since August 2011, and a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [3] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract price has surpassed 10,000 yuan per kilogram, reaching a nearly 13-year high, with a year-to-date increase of over 30% [3] - Silver prices are more elastic compared to gold, supported by active bullish options trading amid expectations of interest rate cuts, with the trading volume of the iShares Silver Trust options reaching a peak since April 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, with potential for two more cuts this year, reflecting a cautious approach to economic conditions [1][4]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, U.S. stock markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced slight declines, indicating investor uncertainty about future economic trends [8][9]. - The Dow Jones closed at 46,018.32, up 260.42 points (+0.57%), while the S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 6,600.35, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.3% to 22,261.33 [2][8]. Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The decision to cut rates was passed with an 11-1 vote, with only Stephen Miran opposing the decision, advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2][5]. - The internal division within the Fed was less than market expectations, indicating a dominant dovish stance among committee members [2][5]. Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The Fed's updated dot plot indicates that 10 out of 19 members expect two more rate cuts this year, while one member predicts a total cut of 125 basis points, reflecting a cautious outlook on economic conditions [5]. - The Fed slightly raised its economic growth forecast for the year but maintained its outlook on inflation and unemployment, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [5][6]. Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Despite high interest rates, consumer spending remains resilient, with retail sales and personal consumption expenditures exceeding expectations, suggesting that household spending power has not been fully suppressed [6][9]. - The Fed emphasized the need to remain vigilant about inflation pressures, indicating that the rate cut should not be interpreted as a signal for aggressive easing [6][9]. Future Rate Projections - The dot plot suggests only one rate cut is expected in 2026, which is significantly lower than market expectations of two to three cuts, indicating a cautious approach even in the face of potential economic downturns [5][9]. - The Fed's long-term neutral rate median is set at 3%, with some members suggesting it should be lower, reflecting a careful stance on future monetary policy [5].

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16 is crucial as it influences not only U.S. interest rates but also global capital flows and economic policies [1][4][10] Meeting Structure - FOMC holds eight meetings annually, with four key meetings in March, June, September, and December that include the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot, which are critical for market expectations [5][8] - The meetings are structured in two days: the first day involves staff reporting on economic data, and the second day is dedicated to policy discussions and voting on the federal funds rate [8] Economic Context - The September meeting occurs amid complex economic signals, political instability, and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [10] - The decisions made by FOMC directly affect U.S. interest rates, impacting mortgage rates, corporate financing costs, and savings returns for households [11] Global Implications - U.S. interest rates serve as a global anchor, influencing capital flows and the stability of emerging markets, with many central banks adjusting their policies in response to FOMC decisions [12] Key Focus Areas - The meeting is particularly noteworthy due to the potential for a policy shift, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, which would signal a move towards easing monetary policy [14][17] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, especially with political pressures from the Trump administration and ongoing debates regarding new appointments to the board [14] - The release of the updated dot plot and SEP will be closely watched, as it will provide insights into future interest rate expectations and economic forecasts [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new historical highs, with London gold touching $3697.131 per ounce and COMEX gold hitting $3734.8 per ounce, driven by various factors including monetary policy shifts, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases [1][3][9]. Price Movements - As of September 10, London gold was reported at $3694.51 per ounce, up 0.42%, with a year-to-date increase of over $1000 per ounce [3][4]. - COMEX gold also saw an increase, reported at $3733.2 per ounce, up 0.38%, with a peak of $3734.8 per ounce [5][9]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D rose by 1.14% to 838.1 yuan per gram, while the main futures contract increased by 1.16% to 844.58 yuan per gram, both reaching new highs [6]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The primary factors contributing to the surge in gold prices include: - A shift in monetary policy, with a 100% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut due to weak U.S. economic data, leading to lower opportunity costs for holding gold [8][9]. - Escalating geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have increased the geopolitical risk index [8][9]. - Continuous net purchases of gold by global central banks, supporting strategic demand for gold amid a trend of de-dollarization [9]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while gold prices are currently high and may experience short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains bullish due to persistent demand driven by risk aversion, policy uncertainty, and central bank support [10]. - Investment strategies should focus on monitoring Federal Reserve policies, inflation data, and geopolitical developments to adjust positions accordingly [10].

美联储决议前夕 市场谨慎情绪升温 尽管市场目前已基本消化了本周美联储降息的预期，但本周的美联储会议依然备受瞩目。在此次会议 中，美联储不仅将公布季度经济和利率预测更新（即点阵图），美联储主席鲍威尔还将在会议结束后举 行新闻发布会。这一系列举措将为市场提供关于美联储未来货币政策走向的重要线索，因此市场参与者 普遍保持高度关注。 来源：《理财周刊》 周二（9月16日）亚市盘中，现货黄金呈现出极为坚挺的走势，价格一度强势逼近3690美元/盎司，成功 刷新历史纪录高位。 这一突破性的行情引发了市场的广泛关注，众多投资者纷纷聚焦于黄金市场，试图探寻推动金价持续上 扬的核心动力。 从宏观经济层面来看，美国彭博社于周二发布的报道指出，投资者普遍押注美联储将在本周实施降息举 措，并且对未来几个月进一步放宽货币政策的预期较为强烈，这种预期在很大程度上成为了金价攀升的 有力支撑。随着市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期逐渐升温，不支付利息的黄金相较于其他资产的吸引 力显著增强，大量资金涌入黄金市场，推动价格不断走高。 与此同时，美元指数在周二跌至七周多以来的最低点，这一走势也为黄金价格提供了强大的支撑。美元 作为全球主要储备货币，其与 ...

Group 1 - The article draws parallels between the current economic challenges faced by China and the 1997 financial crisis in South Korea, highlighting issues such as high local government debt, rising corporate leverage, and a declining GDP growth rate [1][8] - It emphasizes the similarities in international conditions, including geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices, which echo the circumstances leading to the 1997 crisis [1][8] Group 2 - The mechanisms behind the 1997 crisis are analyzed, noting that the U.S. Federal Reserve's abrupt shift from a loose monetary policy to a tightening one triggered the crisis, with South Korea's corporate debt skyrocketing to alarming levels [3][5] - South Korea's dependency on the U.S. for political and military support is highlighted as a factor that compromised its economic sovereignty, leading to a liquidity crisis when international capital flowed back to the U.S. [5][6] Group 3 - The article discusses the severe consequences of the 1997 crisis, including a dramatic depreciation of the Korean won, a significant drop in the stock market, and the bankruptcy of major conglomerates [5][6] - It mentions the humiliating terms of the IMF bailout, which required South Korea to open its financial markets and allowed foreign entities to take control of local businesses, creating a dependency on international capital [6][8] Group 4 - The article concludes with a warning for China to learn from South Korea's experience, advocating for the maintenance of monetary policy independence, control over debt levels, and the establishment of a multi-layered defense system to safeguard economic stability [8]