/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货贵金属专题报告 金银 美联储降息预期摇摆 黄金价值持续 2025 年 11 月 25 日 主要结论 2022 年 12 月 25 日 展望贵金属市场，黄金将在中长期继续展现其独特的配置价值，因全球央行 持续购金的坚实支撑下，叠加货币政策转向、贸易不确定性延续与地缘风险反复 等多重因素共同作用支撑。而当前美联储在降息周期下受制于通胀黏性与经济数 据波动，降息路径可能呈现"走走停停"特征，政策预期的频繁修正将成为影响 贵金属波动节奏的关键因素，短期降息预期摇摆只是限制黄金上行但不构成多头 反转！ 从地缘经贸角度来看，近期全球贸易紧张局势仍持续持久博弈状态，特朗普 政府可能继续推行"TACO 式交易"策略，这种政策的不确定性将持续对全球供 应链构成威胁，为贵金属提供阶段性支撑。此外中东和俄乌冲突呈现"周而复始、 边走边谈"的复杂态势，这种持续不稳定的地缘格局将增加贵金属波动性。 从价格走势来看，COMEX 黄金主力合约或在 3900-4000 美元/盎司附近区间 形成坚实支撑，若能有效站稳 4200 美元附近关口，下一目标位或看至 4400 美元 /盎司附近；对应沪金主力合约 ...

早上好！先来看隔夜市场概况。 11月13日纽约尾盘，现货黄金跌0.54%，报4172.84美元/盎司，北京时间11月13日20:59刷新日高至 4245.23美元/盎司，北京时间11月14日02:23出现一波短线跳水——从4200美元/盎司关口跌至4145.55美 元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货跌0.96%，报4173.00美元/盎司。 截至今晨收盘，美股三大股指普跌，道指跌1.65%，纳指跌2.29%，标普跌1.65%。英伟达跌超3%，谷 歌跌超2%，特斯拉跌超6%，甲骨文跌超4%。热门中概股收盘普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.59%。 消息面上， 据新华社报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发言人朱莉·科扎克13日表示，美国联邦政府"停 摆"将对经济产生负面影响，预计今年四季度美国经济增速将低于此前预测的1.9%。 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，由于政府"停摆"，一个月内将仅公布就业数据，不公布失业率数据。他 预计美国第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速将因政府"停摆"而下降1.5个百分点。哈塞特还表示，看 不出有什么理由不降息。 美国短期利率衍生品合约显示，市场预期美联储在12月降息25个基点的可能性不足50%。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's "rate cut + halt to balance - sheet reduction" signals a major shift in post - pandemic monetary policy. A December rate cut is likely, but future policies will be more flexible and uncertain. Domestically, China's economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations, with strong resilience. Despite challenges like weak consumption and investment, policies will support the economy to achieve the annual growth target [4][56][57]. - For aluminum, the Fed's expected December rate cut and domestic fiscal support are macro factors. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact on ore shipments may support alumina prices, but the alumina supply remains loose. Demand is transitioning to the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [4][105]. - For zinc, the external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Supply may decline, and the domestic refined zinc surplus may ease. Demand is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector weak and the auto and home - appliance sectors providing support [8][9]. - For tin, the supply at the mine end remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is slow. The semiconductor and auto industries support tin demand. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro: The Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, and Domestic Demand Still Faces Pressure Market Operation Logic - **US**: In October, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended balance - sheet reduction. Manufacturing was in a slump, service industry growth slowed, the labor market cooled, and the CPI fell more than expected. Future policies are expected to be more flexible and uncertain, and a December rate cut is likely [19][20][24]. - **Eurozone**: In October, the economy showed "enhanced stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." The service industry PMI reached a 1 - and - a - half - year high, inflation fell slightly, but the manufacturing recession continued. The labor market was stable, and inflation showed "overall cooling and core stability" [26][28][29]. - **China**: In the first three quarters, the economy grew steadily. Investment declined, consumption slowed, and exports showed strong resilience. The price index showed some repair, and the PMI indicated overall stable production and operation but a weak manufacturing demand [34][44][50]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's policy shift is significant, and future policies are uncertain. The eurozone economy depends on the service industry in the short - term and needs to solve multiple challenges in the long - term. - Domestically, the economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations. In the fourth quarter, Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal policies will support the economy to achieve the annual target [56][57][58]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [60]. 3.2 Aluminum: Off - season Downstream Start - up Cools, but High - level Support Remains Market Operation Logic - **Cost Side**: In October, domestic bauxite prices rose slightly, and overseas prices fell. The supply of domestic bauxite was tight, and the impact of the Guinea rainy season on imports was still being felt. In 2025, the supply of imported bauxite may increase, but the spot resources may still be tight. In October, the output of alumina increased, but the profit was compressed. In November, the market is expected to remain in surplus, and prices will be under pressure. In October, the cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [64][72][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, production increased, and the aluminum - water ratio rose. In November, winter environmental protection restrictions may affect production, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline. Import losses are large, and the net import volume may exceed last year [80][82]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: In October, the refined - scrap price difference widened, and the PMI of the recycled aluminum industry declined but remained above the boom - bust line. In November, demand is expected to be boosted, and the industry PMI may continue to expand. The substitution of recycled aluminum for primary aluminum is gradually emerging [86]. - **Demand Side**: In October, the aluminum processing PMI fell below the boom - bust line. Different sectors have different performances. Demand is transitioning to the off - season. The real estate market is still weak, but the auto market is growing well. In November, the State Grid's order bidding may accelerate, but terminal demand needs to be released [88][91][98]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: Near the end of October, the supply increased, and demand was weak. In November, the inventory may change from de - stocking to stocking, which will have a negative impact on prices [100]. Market Trend Judgment The Fed is likely to cut rates in December, and domestic fiscal policies will support the economy. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact may support alumina prices, but the supply is still loose. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [105]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Macro - policy games, overseas events, ore - end resumption and shipment, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [107]. 3.3 Zinc: The External - strong and Internal - weak Pattern Continues, Pay Attention to the Upper Pressure Market Operation Logic - **Market Trend in October**: Zinc prices fluctuated higher after a correction. Overseas prices were stronger than domestic ones. The market was boosted by overseas rate cuts and low LME inventories in the short - term, but faced long - term surplus pressure [110]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Overseas production increased significantly in the first half of 2025 and is expected to continue to increase in the second half. In October, processing fees declined, and import losses increased. Port inventories are at a high level in recent years, and the raw - material inventory days of smelters have decreased [113][115][122]. - **Refined Zinc**: In October, production increased but was lower than expected. In November, production is expected to decline due to factors such as raw - material shortages and profit compression. Zinc ingot imports are at a low level, and the domestic inventory increase pressure may ease. Overseas LME inventories are at a low level, supporting prices [124][127][130]. - **Zinc Consumption**: The traditional consumption season was under - performing. Galvanized sheet exports may decline in October. The real estate market is still weak, and the impact on zinc demand is limited. The auto market is growing well but may cool slightly in the fourth quarter [132][137][139]. Market Trend Judgment The external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided. 3.4 Tin: The Probability of Overseas Supply Increase Rises, and the Price Center of Gravity Faces Downward Risk Market Operation Logic - **Mine End**: The supply at the mine end is still tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is slow. The arrival volume from Congo (Kinshasa) and Australia will increase in October. - **Smelting**: After the September shutdown and maintenance, refined tin production increased in October, but raw - material shortages in some provinces led to low processing fees. - **Downstream Demand**: The semiconductor industry supports tin demand, and the auto market has grown rapidly but may slow down at the end of the year. Market Trend Judgment The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided.

Global Monetary Policy Trends - In October 2025, among 26 major economies tracked, 7 economies cut interest rates, with the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%[1][8] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its rates for the third consecutive time but signaled a hawkish stance, while the Bank of Japan kept its rates unchanged but expressed a dovish outlook[1][8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with a 70% probability of a December cut as of late October, indicating uncertainty about additional cuts within the year[2][20] U.S. Liquidity Tracking - As of October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve's reserve balance decreased to $2.83 trillion, representing approximately 12% of nominal GDP, indicating that excess liquidity is nearly exhausted[3][9] - The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) balance significantly shrank to $19.5 billion, with usage almost depleted, reflecting tight liquidity conditions[3][9] - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) to interest on excess reserves (IOER) spread narrowed from -7 basis points to a minimum of -3 basis points, showing tightening liquidity due to balance sheet reduction[4][36] Global Financial Market Liquidity - The bid-ask spread for U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds remained stable between 0.19 and 0.39 basis points, indicating that liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market has not significantly deteriorated despite the Fed's balance sheet reduction[5][44] - Credit risk premiums in the U.S. remained low, with credit default swap (CDS) prices for U.S. corporate bonds showing limited impact from recent regional banking credit events[5][44] - The Libor-OIS spread increased significantly, reaching a peak of 110 basis points, indicating rising liquidity premiums in the market[5][44]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is at a crossroads of monetary policy shifts and fiscal sustainability, facing unprecedented complexities due to diverging views within the Federal Reserve and increasing market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [2]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with some members advocating for larger rate cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates, indicating a lack of consensus [2][5]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated significantly, dropping from 90% to approximately 70% [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Data - U.S. inflation remains stubbornly high, with September inflation reaching its highest level since January, driven by rising prices of essential goods [3]. - The ongoing government shutdown has hindered the collection of critical economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [3]. - Tariff policies are contributing to rising consumer costs, with estimates suggesting that consumers bear 50% to 70% of the total tariff costs [3]. Group 3: U.S. Debt and Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 143%, a historical high [5]. - Concerns over high fiscal deficits and excessive bond issuance are leading some investors, like Bill Gross, to sell U.S. Treasury futures, anticipating rising yields [5]. Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategies - The bond market is expected to experience increased volatility due to multiple factors, including Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and the upcoming presidential election [6]. - Investors are adjusting their strategies in response to market uncertainties, with suggestions to shift towards longer-term bonds to mitigate exposure to short-term policy fluctuations [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the historical volatility of gold prices, highlighting significant drops and the underlying factors that contribute to these declines, emphasizing that gold, often seen as a safe haven, can experience sharp downturns during crises [1][4][28]. Historical Context and Analysis - Gold has experienced dramatic price fluctuations throughout its history, with notable declines during economic crises, reflecting changes in the global financial system and providing valuable lessons for investors [4][5]. - The analysis will utilize historical event analysis to construct a comprehensive timeline of significant gold price drops, examining the market environment, triggering factors, and impacts on various economic sectors [5]. Early 20th Century Price Drops - During the gold standard period (1920-1932), gold prices remained stable, but the 1929 stock market crash led to a severe economic downturn, challenging the gold standard [9][10]. - The Great Depression (1929-1933) saw a re-evaluation of gold prices, with significant increases due to bank failures and gold hoarding, culminating in the U.S. abandoning the gold standard [10]. Post-Bretton Woods Price Fluctuations - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked the beginning of gold's free-floating era, leading to significant price volatility [12]. - The first major drop post-Bretton Woods occurred between 1975-1976, where gold prices fell by 47% due to government intervention and profit-taking [13][14]. 1980s Price Collapse - The peak of gold prices in January 1980 at $850 per ounce was followed by a dramatic decline of 65% by mid-1982, driven by aggressive monetary policy changes and a strong dollar [16][17][18]. - The long-term bear market from 1980 to 2000 saw gold prices fluctuate between $250 and $500 per ounce, influenced by high interest rates and a strong dollar [20][23]. 21st Century Price Drops - The 2008 financial crisis led to an unexpected drop in gold prices, despite its traditional role as a safe haven, with prices falling over 30% during the crisis [28][32]. - The COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 triggered a brief but severe drop in gold prices, similar to 2008, due to liquidity crises and forced selling [40][43]. Recent Adjustments - In October 2025, gold prices reached a record high of $4059 per ounce before experiencing a significant drop, highlighting the volatility and rapid changes in market sentiment [50][51]. - The recent adjustment was characterized by rapid declines, high trading volumes, and significant losses for leveraged investors, indicating a shift in market dynamics [52][53]. Common Characteristics of Price Drops - Key triggers for gold price declines include shifts in monetary policy, strong dollar performance, liquidity crises, and speculative bubbles [61][62]. - Historical data shows that significant price drops can occur rapidly, with single-day declines exceeding 12%, and longer-term bear markets lasting several years [64][65].

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signaled a fundamental shift in its long-standing low inflation environment, with policy member Takeda Sho stating that the price stability target has "essentially been achieved" and that the timing for raising policy rates is now appropriate [1][3] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan has consistently exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for 39 consecutive months, indicating a shift from an export-driven economy to one driven by domestic demand, which is weakening the traditional perception of "deflationary inertia" [3][7] - Market expectations regarding the BOJ's policy direction have become polarized, with a significant drop in the probability of a rate hike to 24% ahead of the October 30 meeting, reflecting the complexities of decision-making influenced by political and economic factors [1][3] Economic Context - The recent rise in inflation data has become the central basis for potential policy adjustments, contrasting with Japan's previous reliance on export-led growth [3][7] - The yen's continued weakness following the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September is interpreted as a sign of increased independence in Japan's monetary policy, providing room for potential adjustments [3] - The Tokyo stock market has shown volatility, with the Nikkei 225 index testing key resistance levels amid fluctuating policy expectations, indicating investor sensitivity to liquidity contraction [3] Policy Challenges - The BOJ faces challenges in balancing sustainable economic recovery with financial stability, as indicated by its cautious approach to tapering bond purchases [7] - The potential initiation of a tightening cycle could exacerbate cross-border capital flow volatility, especially given the current divergence in policy cycles among major economies [7] - Regardless of the outcome of the October meeting, the BOJ's reduced tolerance for inflation marks a significant shift that will test the adaptability of Asian financial markets in the context of diverging monetary policies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and persistent inflation are creating challenges for income-focused investors, leading to increased interest in alternative investment strategies such as gold and specialized ETFs like the ProShares Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF [1][2][4]. Interest Rate and Inflation - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, which is expected to impact income-focused investors negatively [1]. - Inflation remains a significant concern, contributing to the rise in gold prices, with predictions from experts suggesting that gold could reach prices as high as $20,000 [2][3]. Investment Strategies - Income-seeking investors may need to accept higher risks, such as investing in commercial bonds or dividend stocks from unstable enterprises, due to declining risk-free yields from U.S. Treasuries [4]. - Advanced traders might consider writing covered calls, which involves underwriting the risk that the target security will not rise significantly [5][6]. ProShares Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF - The ProShares Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (IQQQ) targets high income potential while aiming for long-term total returns similar to the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index [7]. - The IQQQ ETF employs a daily covered-call strategy through total return swap agreements with institutional counterparties, which helps deliver returns [8]. - The fund balances high yields with attractive long-term total return potential, acknowledging the tradeoff between income generation and capital gains [9][10]. - Monthly distributions from the IQQQ ETF align with typical financial obligations, making it a convenient option for income-focused investors [11]. Performance Metrics - Since the beginning of the year, the IQQQ ETF has gained almost 4%, with a notable 29% increase over the trailing six months [13]. - The ETF's technical profile is strong, with price action above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, indicating positive market sentiment [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish lira has depreciated to a historic low against the US dollar, reflecting ongoing economic challenges and political uncertainties, despite the central bank's interventions and attempts to control inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Turkish lira reached an exchange rate of 41.9 against the US dollar, marking an 18% depreciation year-to-date [1]. - The central bank has shifted its monetary policy frequently, with a recent rate cut cycle that began in July, reducing the benchmark interest rate to 40.5% after a series of adjustments [1][2]. - Inflation has rebounded, with the consumer price index rising by 33.29% year-on-year in September, significantly above the central bank's mid-term target of 5% [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Despite achieving a record current account surplus of $5.46 billion in August, the depreciation of the lira continues, indicating persistent capital outflows and market concerns [2][3]. - The central bank has indicated a commitment to maintaining a tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved, with future rate adjustments dependent on actual inflation trends [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the market is in a cautious phase, with investors awaiting clearer signals on inflation trends before making significant investment decisions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market has reached a milestone with gold prices surpassing $4,130 per ounce and silver prices hitting $52.50 per ounce, driven by multiple favorable factors and significant market interest [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices have increased nearly 60% this year, successfully breaking the psychological barrier of $4,000 per ounce [4]. - Silver prices have also seen remarkable performance, with a daily increase of 6.8%, closing at $50.13 per ounce, and surpassing the $52 mark in the spot market [10]. Group 2: Driving Factors - **Global Risk Aversion**: Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions between the U.S. and China, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The global debt has reached a historic high of $337.7 trillion, further enhancing gold's status as a reserve asset [6][7]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: The market anticipates a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, with a 94.6% probability of rate cuts in October. This expectation has lowered the holding costs of gold, making it more attractive [8]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Central banks are projected to purchase 850 tons of gold in 2025, with China increasing its reserves to 2,300 tons. The active participation of institutional investors has created a positive feedback loop in the market [9]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - Silver's price surge is attributed not only to safe-haven demand but also to structural growth in industrial applications such as electric vehicles and solar panels. This unique supply-demand dynamic supports silver prices [10].