免责声明 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 2025/11/25 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC主力收盘价 | -14.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1126.400 | | 1338 | -25.90↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -99.40↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 327.10 | | 115.50 | -94.90↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 185.87 | +115.10↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力 ...

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/11/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1162.7 -44.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1640.100 | | | | -22.30↓ | | 期货盘面 | -21.10↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 258.10 EC2602-EC2604价差 | 477.40 | | | | -35.00↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -282.43 | +38.00↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 1384↑ | 40244 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -147.13↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,238.42 | 1357.67 | | | | -91.29↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -43.72↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 1451.38 | | | | 0.31↑ | | ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1726.000 108.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | | 1187.7 | +24.60↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2602-EC2605价差 | 538.30 +91.00↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | | | 322.10 | +95.00↑ | | EC合约基差 | -368.33 -268.13↓ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 38880 837↑ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1357.67 -147.13↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,238.42 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the freight index (European Line) futures prices showed mixed trends. The main contract EC2512 closed down 3.71%, and the far - month contracts had fluctuations ranging from - 1% to 1%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1208.71, down 104 points from last week, a 7.9% week - on - week decline, indicating weakened freight rate support [6][40]. - Although the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur achieved positive results and improved the market's expectations for the trade war situation, the positive impact has not yet reached China's demand side. China's manufacturing PMI data in October declined seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly. In October, China's exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, far lower than the expected 3%, reflecting that the recovery foundation of terminal transportation demand is not solid [6][40]. - Mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November, and Maersk's price - holding in mid - to - late October was basically successful, boosting market confidence in the November price increase [6][40]. - The Middle East situation, especially the Israel - Palestine conflict, is in a delicate and unstable stage, delaying the expected resumption of navigation in the Red Sea. The better - than - expected German economy has boosted market confidence and stimulated the economic recovery of the Eurozone. If the proposed fiscal expansion policy of the new German government has more specific details, it will enhance investors' confidence in the medium - term growth of the Eurozone [6][40]. - Overall, although the trade war situation has improved and there is a turning point in geopolitical conflicts, it has not affected the trade side yet. China's export performance in October was poor, and freight rates lack support. With the arrival of the peak shipping season in the fourth quarter, the demand side may pick up. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [7][41] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the freight index (European Line) futures declined slightly this week. The EC2512 contract's trading volume and open interest decreased, and the market trading was cold. The specific price and trading volume data of each contract are as follows: EC2512 closed at 1812.00, down 3.71%; EC2602 closed at 1592.00, up 0.52%; EC2604 closed at 1164.60, down 1.05%; EC2606 closed at 1376.10, down 1.28%; EC2608 closed at 1499.20, up 0.42%; EC2610 closed at 1133.40, down 0.18%. The SCFIS index closed at 1208.71, down 7.9% [9][10][13] 2. News Review and Analysis - Positive news: China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including canceling some tariffs on US - made goods and other measures [20]. - Negative news: The US federal government's "shutdown" has reached 36 days, which may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. If the deadlock continues until Thanksgiving week, about $14 billion in economic losses will be irreparable. Also, the US Treasury Secretary mentioned the possibility of imposing additional tariffs on China if China restricts rare - earth exports [20]. - Neutral news: A 2026 Federal Reserve voting member said that high inflation levels are not conducive to further interest - rate cuts, and the current reason for further policy action is not obvious [20] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the freight index (European Line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week. The export container freight rate index declined. Global container shipping capacity continued to increase, while European Line shipping capacity decreased slightly under the guidance of shipping company blank sailings. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [27][31][32] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints of the report, including the price trends of futures contracts, the impact of economic and trade consultations, the fundamentals of demand, the price - increase expectations of shipping companies, the geopolitical situation, market expectations, and investment suggestions [40][41]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Thursday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fell collectively, with the main contract EC2512 down 3.91% and the far - month contracts down 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index decreased by 7.9% week - on - week, weakening the freight rate support. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Although mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November and Maersk's price support in mid - and late October was successful, the freight rate market is affected by multiple factors. The current freight rate market is greatly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market Data - EC2512 main contract closed at 1848.200, down 75.2; EC2602 (secondary main) closed at 1601, down 30.4. The spread between EC2512 - EC2602 was 247.20, down 46.80; the spread between EC2512 - EC2604 was 670.20, down 76.20. The EC contract basis was - 639.49, up 97.80. The main contract's open interest was 28412 hands, down 5660 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1208.71, down 104.00; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1107.32, up 159.83. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1550.70, up 147.24. Container ship capacity was 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1021.39, up 28.65; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1323.81, up 30.69. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2003.00, down 45.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1793.00, down 5.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 26482.00, up 2605.00 [1]. Industry News - China announced measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including stopping the additional tariffs on some US - made imports announced on March 4, continuing to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year while retaining the 10% additional tariff rate, etc. [1] - The US federal government's "shutdown" has entered the 36th day, breaking the previous record. The Congressional Budget Office said it may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points, and if the stalemate continues until Thanksgiving week, about $14 billion in economic losses will be irrecoverable [1]. - EU climate ministers reached an agreement on the 2040 climate change target, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% with flexibility, and member states can offset up to 5% of the emission reduction tasks by purchasing international carbon credits [1]. Key Data to Watch - November 7: China's October export year - on - year rate in US dollars (to be determined), China's October import year - on - year rate in US dollars (to be determined), US October unemployment rate (to be determined), US October seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls (in ten thousand people) (to be determined), Germany's September seasonally adjusted trade balance (in billion euros) at 15:00, and the preliminary value of the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index at 23:00 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures mostly declined on Thursday, with the main contract EC2512 rising 0.15% and the far - month contracts falling between 1% - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index increased by 172.33 points from last week, a 15.1% week - on - week increase. Spot index gains may support short - term freight rate increases. Trade war situation improvement, geopolitical conflict reaching a substantial easing inflection point, and leading shipping companies announcing November freight rate increases have led to a rapid recovery in futures prices. The fourth - quarter shipping peak season also has an impact. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1843.800, EC secondary main contract closing price: 1583, a 15.60 decline; EC2512 - EC2602 spread: 260.80, a 4.20 decline; EC2512 - EC2604 spread: 667.90, an 8.70 decline; EC contract basis: - 531.09, a 27.20 increase; EC main contract open interest: 30114, a 1792 decline [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1312.71, a 172.33 increase; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 863.46, a 14.34 decline; SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1403.46, a 93.14 increase; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, no change; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 992.74, a 19.63 increase; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1293.12, a 25.21 increase; Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1961.00, an 11.00 decline; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1885.00, a 19.00 increase; average charter price (Panama - type ship): 17564.00, no change; average charter price (Cape - type ship): 23582.00, a 103.00 increase [1] 3.3 Industry News - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% early today, the second cut this year, and will end balance - sheet reduction from December 1. The US Senate passed a bill to end the national emergency used by the Trump administration to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, but the House Republican leadership has blocked a vote on overturning the tariff until next March [1] 3.4 Key Data to Watch - October 31: US September core PCE price index annual rate (TBD), Japan September unemployment rate (07:30), China October official manufacturing PMI (09:30), France October CPI monthly rate preliminary value (15:45), Eurozone October CPI annual rate preliminary value (18:00) [1]

瑞达期货（002961）分析称，贸易战局势同地缘政治形势虽反复不断，但短期向好，集运指数（欧线） 需求回暖预期亦将好转。但与此同时，贸易战长期能否如预期般好转仍需观察，建议投资者谨慎为主， 注意操作节奏及风险控制，应及时跟踪地缘、运力与货量数据。 5月19日，国内期市主力合约涨跌互现。其中，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约开盘报2195.0点，今日 盘中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，集运指数（欧线）主力最高触及2419.7点，下方探低2190.0点，涨 幅达2.19%。 目前来看，集运指数（欧线）行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于集运指数（欧线）后市行情 将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 南华期货（603093）表示，从盘面表现来看，此前宏观情绪带来的利多影响已基本出尽，后续还是要看 欧线是否会受影响而抽调部分运力至美线等。主流船司除马士基外基本均宣告了6月涨价函，但就当前 仍相对偏弱的基本面而言，后续真正落地的可能性还有待商榷。所以总体来看，上周五期价至高位回 落。后续期价走势短期偏震荡的可能性相对较大。 国投安信期货指出，上周多家航司宣布6月欧线报价涨至3000美元/FEU以上，需关注今日马士基6月首 ...

| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 环比 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 1465.200 | 80.2↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1896 | +208.80↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2506-EC2508价差 | -103.00↓ EC2506-EC2510价差 | -430.80 | | 54.90 | +70.30↑ | | EC合约基差 | +1.00↑ | -86.13 | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 36838 | 0↑ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -76.45↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1302.62 | | 1,455.31 | 134.62↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -4.24↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 1340.93 | | | 0.03↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 14.70↑ CCF ...

| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/5/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 202.2↑ EC次主力收盘价 1794 | 1466.200 | | | +247.40↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2506-EC2508价差 -48.80↓ EC2506-EC2510价差 | -327.80 | | -15.40 | -4.40↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -87.13 | -216.40↓ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 37399 | 0↑ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -76.45↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1302.62 | | 1,455.31 | 134.62↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -4.24↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 1340.93 | | | 0.13↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 14.70↑ C ...