明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | 2026/1/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 27.0↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1855.500 | | 1198 | +30.80↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2602-EC2604价差 | +22.20↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 657.50 | | 466.50 | +33.10↑ | | EC合约基差 | | -112.86 | +99.24↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 26046 | 1916↑ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 53.19↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1795.83 | | 1,250.12 | -51.29↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 103.40↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1656.32 | | 1,2 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | 2025/12/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1795.100 1160.2 | | -38.2↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | -4.40↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2602-EC2604价差 | 634.90 -18.10↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 425.10 | | | | -23.80↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -52.46 | +181.24↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 27855 | -2582↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1742. ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows a predominantly bearish trend, with the European shipping index futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 3.73% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The European shipping index futures opened at 1600.3 points, reaching a high of 1641.0 points and a low of 1585.5 points during the trading session [1] - The current market performance indicates a strong upward trend, with expectations of increased volatility in the future [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Ruida Futures suggests that improvements in trade tensions and a seasonal peak in shipping demand are influencing the market, but advises caution due to potential volatility and the need for careful monitoring of geopolitical and capacity data [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures expresses skepticism about the upward price potential for December and January, citing historical trends of decreased export volumes from China to Europe in January compared to December [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures highlights a significant increase in market confidence due to Maersk's announced price increase for January, which is expected to boost market sentiment, although actual price support will depend on the verification of seasonal demand characteristics [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices rose slightly, with the main contract EC2602 closing up 0.92% and far - month contracts rising between 1 - 2%. Shipping companies' planned price hikes in late December drove up the futures prices. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1483.65, down 155.72 points from last week but up 9.5% month - on - month. China's manufacturing PMI in November showed a slight recovery, and the new export orders index rose to 47.9, indicating a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transport demand. Spot freight rates from Maersk and MSC increased slightly. Geopolitical conflicts remained deadlocked, while Germany's economic performance boosted market confidence in the eurozone. The current freight market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: EC main contract closed at 1083.100, up 9.1; EC secondary main contract closed at 1254.5, up 21.30. The price difference between EC2602 - EC2604 was - 5.10 lower at 457.00, and the price difference between EC2602 - EC2606 was - 15.40 lower at 285.60. The EC contract basis was - 161.62 lower at - 56.45 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main EC contract's open interest decreased by 156 to 18997 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Freight Index**: SCFIS (European line) weekly was 1483.65, down 155.72; SCFIS (US West line) weekly was 948.77, down 159.08; SCFI (composite index) weekly was 1403.13, up 9.57; CCFI (composite index) weekly was 1121.80, down 0.99; CCFI (European line) weekly was 1449.34, up 16.38 [2]. - **Other Spot Indicators**: The Baltic Dry Index daily was 2600.00, down 17.00; the Panamax Freight Index daily was 1915.00, up 19.00. The average charter price for Panamax ships was 17695.00, unchanged; the average charter price for Capesize ships was 36180.00, down 860.00 [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Geopolitical News**: China and Russia held strategic security consultations, reaching new consensus on major strategic security issues. The US and Ukraine held high - level talks to improve the peace plan. The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rates for this year and next would be 3.2% and 2.9% respectively, with the US economy expected to grow 2% and 1.7%, and the eurozone economy 1.3% and 1.2% [2]. 3.4 Key Points to Watch - On December 4th, key data includes the eurozone's October retail sales month - on - month rate at 18:00, the US November Challenger job - cuts in thousands at 20:30, and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29th in thousands at 21:30 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the freight index (European Line) futures prices dropped significantly. The main contract EC2602 fell 7.62%, and the far - month contracts fell between 4 - 8%. The poor implementation of the freight rate increase plan led to a sharp decline in the near - month futures prices [1]. - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1639.37, up 271.7 points from last week, a 20.7% week - on - week increase. However, China's manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped 1.9 percentage points to 45.9, indicating that the recovery of terminal transportation demand is not firmly based [1]. - Spot freight rates decreased as Maersk's 50 - week booking price for large containers dropped to $2100 - 2200, down $300 from the previous week, causing other shipping alliances to follow suit [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict in a stalemate, and the improvement of the trade war situation, the potential substantial easing of geopolitical conflicts, and the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season all affect the market. The freight rate market is highly affected by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious and control risks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: EC2602 closed at 1072.200, down 68.0; EC2604 closed at 1252, down 102.10; the spread between EC2602 and EC2604 was 315.20, down 11.90; the spread between EC2602 and EC2606 was 135.40, up 19.90; the EC contract basis was 251.97, up 66.10 [1]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract's open interest was 17998, up 982 [1]. - **Freight Rate Indexes**: SCFIS (European Line) was 1639.37, up 281.70; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) was 1107.85, down 130.57; SCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1393.56, down 57.82; CCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1122.79, up 28.76; CCFI (European Line) was 1432.96, up 29.32 [1]. - **Other Indexes**: The Baltic Dry Index was 2309.00, down 14.00; the Panamax Freight Index was 1957.00, down 13.00; the average charter price for Panamax ships was 17564.00, up; the average charter price for Capesize ships was 29150.00, down 1095.00 [1]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: It was 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), up 3.08 [1]. Industry News - Diplomatic news includes positive communication between Chinese and US presidents, progress in the US - drafted peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the expected visit of the Ukrainian president to the US [1]. - The US federal government's budget deficit in October was $284 billion due to the government shutdown [1]. Key Events to Watch - On November 27, key data releases include China's year - to - date profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size in October, Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index for December, and the eurozone's industrial and economic sentiment indexes for November [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 fell 2.66%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% decline, leading to a drop in futures prices. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Shipowners are more active in price support, but the implementation needs to be observed. The resumption of shipping in the Red Sea is postponed due to the unstable Middle - East situation. The German economy boosts market confidence, and if the German government's fiscal expansion policy has clear details, it will enhance investors' confidence in the medium - term growth of the eurozone. Currently, the freight rate market is affected by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious and control risks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1162.7, down 44.9; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1640.100, down 22.30. EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 258.10, EC2602 - EC2604 spread: 477.40, down 35.00. EC contract basis: - 282.43, up 38.00. EC main contract open interest: 40244, up 1384 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1357.67, down 147.13; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1238.42, down 91.29. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1451.38, down 43.72; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.31. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1094.03, up 35.86; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1403.64, up 36.79. Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2216.00, down 63.00; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1882.00, up 5.00. Average charter price of Panama - type ships: 17564.00, unchanged; average charter price of Cape - type ships: 30147.00, up 2377.00 [1]. Industry News - Chinese and Japanese diplomatic officials held consultations, and China was dissatisfied with the results. China called on Japan to correct its mistakes. Premier Li Qiang called for free trade and strengthened cooperation at the SCO meeting. The US modified patent invalidation application rules, and China will safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [1]. Key Data to Watch - November 20, 15:00: Germany's October PPI monthly rate. November 20, 21:30: US September unemployment rate, US September seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls (in ten thousand people), US initial jobless claims for the week ended November 15 (in ten thousand people). November 20, 23:00: Eurozone's November preliminary consumer confidence index [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed up 6.73%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1357.67, down 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% month - on - month decline, falling again. The manufacturing PMI data in China in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9, with export growth turning from an increase to a decrease, indicating that the recovery foundation of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Shipping companies are more active in price support than before, and cooperate with blank sailings to adjust capacity, promoting a rebound in freight rates. The geopolitical situation, especially the Israel - Palestine conflict, is in a very delicate and unstable stage, delaying the expectation of the resumption of navigation in the Red Sea. The better - than - expected German economy has boosted market confidence and stimulated the economic recovery in the eurozone. If the proposed fiscal expansion policy of the new German government has clearer details, it will enhance investors' confidence in the medium - term growth of the eurozone. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more sharply. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1726.00, up 108.8; EC second - main contract closing price: 1187.7, up 24.6. - EC2602 - EC2605 spread: 538.30, up 91.00; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 322.10, up 95.00. - EC contract basis: - 368.33, down 268.13. - EC main contract open interest: 38880, up 837 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1357.67, down 147.13; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1238.42, down 91.29. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1451.38, down 43.72; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1094.03, up 35.86; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1403.64, up 36.79. - Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 2125.00, down 48.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1897.00, unchanged. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 17564.00, unchanged; average charter price (Cape - size ship): 26315.00, up 2265.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer will visit Europe from November 19th to 22nd for more trade negotiations. Greer said that the tariffs imposed by the EU on US export products are still too high. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has reminded Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan recently, and the Ministry of Education has issued a study - abroad warning. - The European Council announced that EU finance ministers agreed to abolish the rule that allows goods worth less than 150 euros to enter the EU duty - free. - South Korea and the US reached an agreement on tariffs and defense issues and signed a memorandum of understanding on a $350 billion investment project by South Korea in the US. For South Korean products exported to the US with a tax rate of 15% or more, the US will no longer impose "additional tariffs", and products with a tax rate lower than 15% will be raised to 15%. The US will also reduce the tariffs on South Korean cars, auto parts, wood, sawn timber and wood products to 15% [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - November 18th, 22:15: US industrial production monthly rate for October. - November 18th, 23:00: US NAHB housing market index for November. - November 18th, 23:00: US factory orders monthly rate for August [1].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows a mixed performance, with the shipping index (European route) experiencing fluctuations and a downward trend, indicating a cautious outlook for future operations in the shipping industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The shipping index (European route) futures opened at 1860.0 points, with a maximum of 1878.0 points and a minimum of 1765.0 points, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.62% [1]. - The SCFI European route index was reported at $1246/TEU, an increase of 8.8% compared to the previous period [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - There is a preliminary consensus between China and the U.S. on resolving several important economic and trade issues, which may provide marginal support to the shipping index [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Gaza, continue to impact market sentiment, with ongoing volatility in ceasefire agreements [2][3]. Group 3: Shipping Rates and Market Sentiment - Major shipping companies are adjusting their November pricing, with CMA increasing rates by $400 for large containers, while HMM reported a decrease of $400 for similar containers [2]. - The shipping market is heavily influenced by news, with expectations of price increases from major shipping lines as the peak shipping season approaches [3]. - Despite some positive signals from major shipping companies regarding pricing, there remains caution in the market due to limited capacity control and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2512 closed up 10.42%, and the far - month contracts rose between 4 - 10%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1031.80, up 108.58 points from last week, a 10.5% week - on - week increase. The improvement in the spot index boosted the futures price [8][41]. - The improvement of the trade - war situation, the substantial inflection point of the geopolitical conflict towards mitigation, and the successive announcements of price increases by leading shipping companies for November freight rates led to a rapid rebound in futures prices. The arrival of the peak shipping season in the fourth quarter also had an impact [9][42]. - The current freight market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices fluctuate greatly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [9][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose significantly this week. The EC2512 contract's trading volume and open interest increased, and market trading became more active [15][21]. - The table shows the weekly price changes of different contracts. For example, EC2510 rose 3.55%, EC2512 rose 10.42%, etc. [12] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - There were various news events, including trade - related communications between China and the EU and the Netherlands, statements from Trump about trade with China, remarks from Putin about US sanctions, and the EU's sanctions on Russian - related and Chinese enterprises. The impacts of these events were rated as neutral, neutral, neutral - bearish, and neutral - bearish respectively [24]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts widened this week [27]. - The export container freight rate index declined this week [30]. - Container ship capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [34]. - The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar widened [36]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, including the rise of futures prices, the factors affecting the price increase, and investment suggestions [41][42]

Group 1: Oil Shipping - The fourth quarter is a traditional peak season for oil shipping, with freight rates expected to rise starting in October [2][3] - Current freight rates reflect tight supply levels, and the demand for oil products in the Northern Hemisphere winter typically lasts for three months [1][2] - OPEC+ is expected to continue small production increases in October, contributing to sustained demand for shipping [1][2] Group 2: Near Coastal and Domestic Shipping - After the National Day holiday, freight rates for near coastal and domestic shipping are anticipated to gradually increase [3] - The near coastal shipping market has improved supply-demand dynamics this year, with no new supply of small vessels and aging fleets causing efficiency losses [3] - Increased cargo volumes between Southeast Asia and China, Japan, and South Korea are expected to support demand growth [3] Group 3: Dry Bulk Shipping - Historical data suggests that the BDI index typically rises in September and early October due to increased demand for grain shipments [4] - The post-holiday rush effect is likely to drive freight rates up after the National Day holiday, although rates may decline after the peak grain shipping period [4] - Winter energy demand is expected to boost transportation needs for coal and iron ore, leading to a potential rise in freight rates in late November [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The company sees potential investment opportunities in the shipping sector due to ongoing supply tightness and marginal demand improvements [5] - Specific companies highlighted for potential growth include COSCO Shipping Energy (600026), China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872), China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975), Seaspan Corporation (01308), and Zhonggu Logistics (603565) [5]