| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/11/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1162.7 -44.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1640.100 | | | | -22.30↓ | | 期货盘面 | -21.10↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 258.10 EC2602-EC2604价差 | 477.40 | | | | -35.00↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -282.43 | +38.00↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 1384↑ | 40244 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -147.13↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,238.42 | 1357.67 | | | | -91.29↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -43.72↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 1451.38 | | | | 0.31↑ | | ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1726.000 108.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | | 1187.7 | +24.60↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2602-EC2605价差 | 538.30 +91.00↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | | | 322.10 | +95.00↑ | | EC合约基差 | -368.33 -268.13↓ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 38880 837↑ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1357.67 -147.13↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,238.42 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows a mixed performance, with the shipping index (European route) experiencing fluctuations and a downward trend, indicating a cautious outlook for future operations in the shipping industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The shipping index (European route) futures opened at 1860.0 points, with a maximum of 1878.0 points and a minimum of 1765.0 points, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.62% [1]. - The SCFI European route index was reported at $1246/TEU, an increase of 8.8% compared to the previous period [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - There is a preliminary consensus between China and the U.S. on resolving several important economic and trade issues, which may provide marginal support to the shipping index [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Gaza, continue to impact market sentiment, with ongoing volatility in ceasefire agreements [2][3]. Group 3: Shipping Rates and Market Sentiment - Major shipping companies are adjusting their November pricing, with CMA increasing rates by $400 for large containers, while HMM reported a decrease of $400 for similar containers [2]. - The shipping market is heavily influenced by news, with expectations of price increases from major shipping lines as the peak shipping season approaches [3]. - Despite some positive signals from major shipping companies regarding pricing, there remains caution in the market due to limited capacity control and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2512 closed up 10.42%, and the far - month contracts rose between 4 - 10%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1031.80, up 108.58 points from last week, a 10.5% week - on - week increase. The improvement in the spot index boosted the futures price [8][41]. - The improvement of the trade - war situation, the substantial inflection point of the geopolitical conflict towards mitigation, and the successive announcements of price increases by leading shipping companies for November freight rates led to a rapid rebound in futures prices. The arrival of the peak shipping season in the fourth quarter also had an impact [9][42]. - The current freight market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices fluctuate greatly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [9][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose significantly this week. The EC2512 contract's trading volume and open interest increased, and market trading became more active [15][21]. - The table shows the weekly price changes of different contracts. For example, EC2510 rose 3.55%, EC2512 rose 10.42%, etc. [12] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - There were various news events, including trade - related communications between China and the EU and the Netherlands, statements from Trump about trade with China, remarks from Putin about US sanctions, and the EU's sanctions on Russian - related and Chinese enterprises. The impacts of these events were rated as neutral, neutral, neutral - bearish, and neutral - bearish respectively [24]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts widened this week [27]. - The export container freight rate index declined this week [30]. - Container ship capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [34]. - The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar widened [36]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, including the rise of futures prices, the factors affecting the price increase, and investment suggestions [41][42]

Group 1: Oil Shipping - The fourth quarter is a traditional peak season for oil shipping, with freight rates expected to rise starting in October [2][3] - Current freight rates reflect tight supply levels, and the demand for oil products in the Northern Hemisphere winter typically lasts for three months [1][2] - OPEC+ is expected to continue small production increases in October, contributing to sustained demand for shipping [1][2] Group 2: Near Coastal and Domestic Shipping - After the National Day holiday, freight rates for near coastal and domestic shipping are anticipated to gradually increase [3] - The near coastal shipping market has improved supply-demand dynamics this year, with no new supply of small vessels and aging fleets causing efficiency losses [3] - Increased cargo volumes between Southeast Asia and China, Japan, and South Korea are expected to support demand growth [3] Group 3: Dry Bulk Shipping - Historical data suggests that the BDI index typically rises in September and early October due to increased demand for grain shipments [4] - The post-holiday rush effect is likely to drive freight rates up after the National Day holiday, although rates may decline after the peak grain shipping period [4] - Winter energy demand is expected to boost transportation needs for coal and iron ore, leading to a potential rise in freight rates in late November [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The company sees potential investment opportunities in the shipping sector due to ongoing supply tightness and marginal demand improvements [5] - Specific companies highlighted for potential growth include COSCO Shipping Energy (600026), China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872), China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975), Seaspan Corporation (01308), and Zhonggu Logistics (603565) [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in freight rates for European shipping routes, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) continuing to decrease [1] - Analysts indicate that shipping companies raised rates in July but are now lowering them again in the spot market, negatively impacting market sentiment [1] - Despite the current downward trend, the traditional peak shipping season in July and August suggests that there may not be a need to be overly bearish on the main August contract [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound after a dip, with mixed performance across the three major indices. The micro-cap stock index rose over 2% to reach a new high. M&A concept stocks surged, with companies like Guangzhi Technology, An彩高科, and Binhai Energy hitting the daily limit. The real estate sector also showed strength, with stocks like Huaxia Happiness and Huayuan Real Estate reaching their limits. The shipping sector continued its strong performance, with stocks such as Ningbo Shipping and Lianyungang also hitting their limits. Overall, more than 3,500 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing saw gains, with a total trading volume of 1.12 trillion [1]. M&A Activity - The asset restructuring sector saw a significant rise, with multiple stocks like Zongyi Co. and An彩高科 hitting their daily limits. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced revised regulations for major asset restructuring, simplifying the review process and enhancing regulatory inclusiveness. Since the introduction of the "M&A Six Guidelines," the scale and activity of the M&A market have significantly increased, with over 1,400 disclosed asset restructurings, including more than 160 major ones. This year, over 600 asset restructurings have been disclosed, 1.4 times that of the same period last year, with completed major transactions exceeding 200 billion, 11.6 times that of last year [3][4][5]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector experienced a notable increase, with stocks like Zhengzhong Design and Huaxia Happiness reaching their limits. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the real estate market's transactions and prices have stabilized, with increased activity in some first- and second-tier cities. Analysts expect continued positive and moderate policies to support the real estate sector, with more fiscal and monetary measures anticipated to aid in stabilizing the market [6][7]. Shipping Sector - The shipping sector remained active, with stocks such as Nanjing Port and Ningbo Shipping achieving consecutive gains. Reports indicated a 600% increase in export customs declarations to the U.S. over two days, with significant increases in inquiries and bookings for shipping to the U.S., indicating an upcoming peak shipping period. Analysts believe that the 90-day tariff window between China and the U.S. may lead to a surge in shipping volumes and prices, benefiting related companies [8][9][10].

Group 1 - The postponement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations by major institutions is seen as a negative factor for gold prices, indicating an improved outlook for U.S.-China relations and economic prospects in the next 90 days [2] - President Trump is advocating for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, expressing dissatisfaction with the current economic situation and inflation rates [3] - The probability of a rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17 has decreased to 60%, down from over 100% two weeks ago, suggesting a potential delay in rate cuts until December [5] Group 2 - U.S. companies are utilizing a 90-day window to stockpile products in anticipation of potential tariff increases, coinciding with the traditional shipping peak season, which may lead to increased demand and higher shipping costs [6] - The average shipping time for trans-Pacific trade is 22 days, prompting shippers to maximize cargo transport within the 90-day period, potentially leading to an earlier peak season this year [6] - There is an expectation for companies to increase inventory levels to 3-6 months, reflecting the urgency to avoid empty shelves and rising shipping costs [7]