本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | 2025/12/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 1795.100 1160.2 | | -38.2↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | -4.40↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2602-EC2604价差 | 634.90 -18.10↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 425.10 | | | | -23.80↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -52.46 | +181.24↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 27855 | -2582↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1742. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European route) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 0.68%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1% - 2%. The latest SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index rebounded 1.46 points from last week, up 0.1% month - on - month. The improvement in the trade war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are beneficial to the recovery of futures prices. The geopolitical situation has reached a stalemate, and its impact on freight rates has weakened in the short term. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1699.800, down 11.7; EC second - main contract closing price: 1124.1, down 6.3. EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 416.10, up 19.3; EC2602 - EC2604 spread: not provided; EC contract basis: - 189.34, down 13.00. EC main contract open interest: 31971, down 512 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 924.34, down 36.15; SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1510.56, up 1.46. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1506.46, up 108.83; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1118.07, up 3.18; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1470.55, up 22.99. Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 2204.00, down 11.00; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1577.00, up 67.00. Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 30050.00, down 1393.00; average charter price (Panama - type ship): not provided. Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.07 [1] 3.3 Industry News - The central economic work conference in 2025 aims to expand domestic demand as the top priority next year, and boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. It also plans to stabilize the real estate market from both ends. The Trump administration threatens to take retaliatory measures against the EU for taxing US technology companies. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.2, a new low in 8 months; Germany's December manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 47.7, the worst in 10 months; France's manufacturing PMI rises to 50.6, a 40 - month high [1] 3.4 Spot Freight Quotes - Maersk's 52 - week 40 - foot container quote is 2300 US dollars, PA Alliance maintains 2800 - 3000 US dollars, MSC's spot quote is 2640 US dollars, and OA's quote is 2400 - 2700 US dollars. All shipping companies' quotes have increased compared with early December. Maersk plans to raise the 40 - foot container price to 3500 US dollars in January, and MSC plans to raise it to 3700 US dollars [1] 3.5 Geopolitical Situation - The Russia - Ukraine conflict has entered its 4th year, with battlefield confrontations and negotiation games proceeding simultaneously. Western aid to Ukraine has decreased, and the counter - offensive has not made breakthrough progress. The geopolitical conflict remains in a stalemate [1] 3.6 Economic Situation in the Eurozone - The economic climate in the eurozone continues to recover. With the boost of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies, Germany's service industry continues to recover strongly, the composite PMI runs stably above 50, and the inflation sub - item continues the downward trend, creating conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "patient wait - and - see" stance [1] 3.7 Key Data to Be Released - UK central bank interest rate decision as of December 18; Eurozone European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate as of December 18; US November unadjusted CPI annual rate; US initial jobless claims (in 10,000 people) for the week ending December 13 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices rose slightly, with the main contract EC2602 closing up 0.92% and far - month contracts rising between 1 - 2%. Shipping companies' planned price hikes in late December drove up the futures prices. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1483.65, down 155.72 points from last week but up 9.5% month - on - month. China's manufacturing PMI in November showed a slight recovery, and the new export orders index rose to 47.9, indicating a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transport demand. Spot freight rates from Maersk and MSC increased slightly. Geopolitical conflicts remained deadlocked, while Germany's economic performance boosted market confidence in the eurozone. The current freight market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: EC main contract closed at 1083.100, up 9.1; EC secondary main contract closed at 1254.5, up 21.30. The price difference between EC2602 - EC2604 was - 5.10 lower at 457.00, and the price difference between EC2602 - EC2606 was - 15.40 lower at 285.60. The EC contract basis was - 161.62 lower at - 56.45 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main EC contract's open interest decreased by 156 to 18997 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Freight Index**: SCFIS (European line) weekly was 1483.65, down 155.72; SCFIS (US West line) weekly was 948.77, down 159.08; SCFI (composite index) weekly was 1403.13, up 9.57; CCFI (composite index) weekly was 1121.80, down 0.99; CCFI (European line) weekly was 1449.34, up 16.38 [2]. - **Other Spot Indicators**: The Baltic Dry Index daily was 2600.00, down 17.00; the Panamax Freight Index daily was 1915.00, up 19.00. The average charter price for Panamax ships was 17695.00, unchanged; the average charter price for Capesize ships was 36180.00, down 860.00 [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Geopolitical News**: China and Russia held strategic security consultations, reaching new consensus on major strategic security issues. The US and Ukraine held high - level talks to improve the peace plan. The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rates for this year and next would be 3.2% and 2.9% respectively, with the US economy expected to grow 2% and 1.7%, and the eurozone economy 1.3% and 1.2% [2]. 3.4 Key Points to Watch - On December 4th, key data includes the eurozone's October retail sales month - on - month rate at 18:00, the US November Challenger job - cuts in thousands at 20:30, and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29th in thousands at 21:30 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The freight rate market is currently highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended that investors exercise caution, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC2512 closed at 1851.700, down 30.2; EC2602 closed at 1592.2, up 8.5. The spread between EC2512 - EC2602 was 259.50, up 9.10; the spread between EC2512 - EC2604 was 667.30, up 24.40. The EC contract basis was -538.99, down 47.70. The EC main contract open interest was 29320, down 2045 [1]. Spot Market Data - The SCFIS (European Line) was 1208.71, down 104.00 week - on - week; the SCFIS (US West Line) was 1107.32, up 159.83 week - on - week. The SCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1550.70, up 147.24 week - on - week. The CCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1021.39, up 28.65 week - on - week; the CCFI (European Line) was 1323.81, up 30.69 week - on - week. The Baltic Dry Index was 1966.00, up 17.00 day - on - day; the Panamax Freight Index was 1821.00, up 28.00 day - on - day. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 23368.00, down 882.00 [1]. Industry News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng detailed the main tasks of the "dual - pillar system", including optimizing the base money supply mechanism, improving the market - oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, etc. [1] - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded positively [1]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung - gun to discuss maintaining the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain and strengthening regional and multilateral cooperation [1]. Market Analysis - The freight rate support has weakened as the latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index decreased by 104 points week - on - week, a 7.9% decline. However, mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November, and Maersk's successful price support in mid - to - late October has boosted market confidence [1]. - The container handling business at the Port of Rotterdam has come to a complete standstill, increasing regional supply chain uncertainties. The positive results of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have improved the market's expectations for the trade war situation [1]. - Geopolitically, there are attempts to start cease - fire negotiations, but the external mediation is at a deadlock. The eurozone economy shows resilience, and the German investor confidence index is expected to continue to improve in November [1]. Key Data to Watch - On November 4, the release of the US September trade balance (in billions of dollars) and the US September factory orders month - on - month rate are to be determined [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices dropped significantly. The main contract EC2510 fell 5.57%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 2297.86, down 62.38 points from last week, a 2.7% decline. Spot indicators continued to fall. The "price war" among leading shipping companies and the early release of cargo volume in the second quarter led to a supply - demand mismatch, pushing down futures prices. Tariff measures increased global trade uncertainty, and although the US consumer end showed resilience, inflation may rise. China's counter - measures against the EU added to trade tensions. The demand for the freight index (European line) was expected to be weak, with large price fluctuations, but the rapid recovery of spot prices might drive futures prices up in the short term. Investors were advised to be cautious and track relevant data [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - EC main contract closed at 1333.100, down 78.6; EC secondary main contract closed at 1700.1, down 20.4. The spread between EC2510 - EC2512 was - 367.00, down 42.60; the spread between EC2510 - EC2602 was - 154.90, down 44.50. The EC contract basis was 902.38, up 22.12 [1] Spot Market - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 2235.48, down 62.38; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1082.14, down 47.98. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1489.68, down 61.06. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1200.73, down 31.56; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1799.05, up 9.55. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2017.00, up 21.00; the Panamax freight index (daily) was 1595.00, up 19.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 13075.00, down 218.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 25236.00, down 2232.00 [1] Industry News - China and the US continued to suspend 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12, and China continued to suspend relevant measures on the unreliable entity list. Three departments jointly issued a personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026. Eligible loans could receive subsidies up to 3000 yuan per person. The US July CPI was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than expected, but the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The market expected a Fed rate cut in September with a probability over 90% [1] Key Data to Watch - On August 14, key data to watch included the UK's second - quarter GDP annual rate preliminary value, June three - month GDP monthly rate, June manufacturing output monthly rate, France's July CPI monthly rate final value, the eurozone's second - quarter GDP annual rate revised value, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9, and the US July PPI annual rate [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Monday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2510 fell 0.72%, and the far - month contracts fell about 1%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index dropped 18.7 points from last week, a 0.8% decline. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" measures and China's counter - measures have intensified trade uncertainties. Although the US consumer end shows resilience, inflation has an upward risk. The demand expectation for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price is 1421.800, down 10.3; EC second - main contract closing price is 1677.2, down 10.7. The EC2510 - EC2512 spread is - 255.40, up 13.00; the EC2510 - EC2602 spread is - 48.40, up 17.60. The EC contract basis is - 16.50, down. The futures holding position is 51053 hands, down 1323 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 2297.86, down 18.70; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 1130.42, down 153.39. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1550.74, down 41.85. Container ship capacity is 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.04. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1232.29, down 29.06; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1789.50, up 2.26. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2018.00, down 15.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1644.00, up 15.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 12235.00, down 128.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 27300.00, up 1386.00 [1] Industry News - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, support key areas, and promote the use of RMB in trade. Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% - 41% reciprocal tariffs on some countries, with the tariffs taking effect on August 7, 2025. Fed理事库格勒 will leave office on August 8, creating uncertainty about the Fed chair appointment [1] Key Data to Follow - August 5, 14:45: France's June industrial output monthly rate; August 5, 17:00: Eurozone's June PPI monthly rate; August 5, 20:30: US June trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends on Monday. The main contract EC2510 fell 2.35%, and the rest of the contracts declined between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 2400.50, down 21.40 points from last week, a 0.9% month - on - month decrease. The high - level spot indicators suggest that the previous price increase announcements by leading shipping companies are likely to be implemented successfully, reducing market concerns about peak - season freight rates. The basis repair logic drives the futures prices to fluctuate at high levels [1]. - The US consumer end shows strong resilience, with the retail sales data in June rebounding unexpectedly, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.6%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.1% and an improvement from the previous value of - 0.9%. However, due to the recent intensification of tariff policies, there is still an upward risk of inflation, which may affect future retail data [1]. - China's recent counter - measures against EU products such as brandy and medical devices have intensified Sino - European trade tensions. Amid trade war uncertainties, the demand expectation for the freight index (European line) is weak, and the futures prices fluctuate widely. But the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term [1]. - There is still uncertainty during the window period from July to August when European, Japanese, Vietnamese and other countries renegotiate with the US. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price was 72.3 (up), EC sub - main contract closing price was 2291.900, and the EC2508 - EC2510 spread was +46.30 (up), the EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 699.20, up 74.80 from the previous value; the EC contract basis was - 47.44 (down) [1]. - The EC main contract position decreased by 879 to 14037 hands [1]. Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) decreased by 21.44 to 2400.50, SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) increased by 35.22 to 1301.81; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 86.39 to 1646.90, and the container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) decreased by 0.06 to 1227.97 [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 10.16, CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1803.42, up 77.01; it decreased by 22.00, the Panama - type freight index (daily) was 1919.00, and the Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2052.00, up 14.00 [1]. - The average charter price of Panama - type ships was 14636.00, down 93.00, and the average charter price of Cape - type ships was 22732.00, down 332.00 [1]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, stating that cooperation and win - win are the right path for China and the US, and suppression has no way out. The US should abandon the zero - sum thinking and cancel a series of unreasonable economic and trade restrictive measures against China. Regarding Canada's stricter steel import restrictions, the Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition and will take all necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [1]. - Four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed work to further standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring in - depth promotion of product price monitoring, product consistency supervision and inspection, shortening the accounts payable period of suppliers, etc. The central fourth steering group carried out special research and discussions, demanding to effectively standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry [1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July and expressed concerns about the private - sector recruitment trend. He also said that if Trump nominated him as the Fed Chairman, he would accept. Trump urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates on social media [1]. - EU member states officially approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, for the first time sanctioning the largest refinery of a Russian oil company in India. This round of sanctions also includes banning activities related to the Nord Stream gas pipeline and lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 [1]. - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru held talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, requesting to vigorously promote tariff negotiations. Bessent said that it is possible to reach a beneficial trade consensus for both countries, but "reaching a good consensus is more important than reaching a hasty one" [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - On Monday, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2508 closed down 4.67%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The negative impacts of intensified geopolitical conflicts and tariffs remain unimproved, weakening the support for futures prices. Although the spot - end price indicators have rebounded rapidly, which may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term, the long - term improvement of the trade war still needs to be observed. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1875.000, down 91.9; EC second - main contract closing price: 1370, down 13.60. EC2508 - EC2510 spread: 505.00, down 25.00; EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 344.90, down 5.10. EC contract basis: 62.14, up 254.51. EC main contract open interest: 47053, up 1085 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1937.14, up 239.51, a 14.1% week - on - week increase; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 2083.46, down 825.22. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1869.59, down 218.65. Container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs): 1227.97, up 0.01. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1342.46, up 99.41; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1578.60, up 89.73. Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1689.00, up 62.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1350.00, up 3.00. Average charter price (Panamax ship): 11242.00, down 65.00; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 19423.00, down 768.00 [1] Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, calling it a violation of the UN Charter and international law, and called for a cease - fire and dialogue. US President Trump claimed that Iranian key nuclear facilities were "completely destroyed", while Iran said the Fordow nuclear facility was not severely damaged. The Iranian parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council. The Director - General of the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the Isfahan nuclear facility suffered extensive damage, the Fordow nuclear facility was directly affected, and the Natanz nuclear facility was attacked again [1] Macroeconomic News - The US raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, 2025. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in June, with a slightly slower pace of interest rate cuts. Chairman Powell said there will be "relatively high inflation" in the coming months, and the US economic activity has declined slightly, with businesses and consumers facing increased policy uncertainty and price pressures [1] Key Data to Watch - Germany's June IFO Business Climate Index at 16:00 on June 24; US April FHFA House Price Index MoM and April S&P/CS20 - City Unadjusted House Price Index YoY at 21:00 on June 24; US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 22:00 on June 24 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On Thursday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2508 closed down 0.11%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 2%. Shipping companies' price hikes slightly supported the futures price. Uncertainty in the trade war and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a cold demand outlook for the Container Shipping Index (European Line), with large price fluctuations. The long - term improvement of the trade war needs to be observed, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk Data - EC main contract closing price: 2146.300, down 2.4; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1356, down 13.3 - EC2508 - EC2510 spread: down 25.80; EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 604.30, down 24.70 - EC contract basis: up 58.57, at - 893.48 - EC main contract open interest: 47254 lots, down 707 [1] Spot Price Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1252.82, up 5.77; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 1718.11, down 1.68 - Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): up 486.59; SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 2072.71, up 0.10 - CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 1117.61, up 10.21; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1375.62, down 16.99 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1489.00, down 59.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1145.00, down 37.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 8568.00, down 95.00; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 20975.00, up 1211.00 [1] Industry News - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that the US economic activity has slightly declined, with businesses and consumers facing rising policy uncertainty and price pressure. Some companies plan to raise prices in the next three months - US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, lower than expected. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao attended the WTO small - scale ministerial meeting in Paris, emphasizing unity and using WTO rules to resolve trade disputes [1] Key Data to Focus On - June 6, 14:00: Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate in April - June 6, 14:45: France's industrial output monthly rate in April - June 6, 17:00: Eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate revised value; Eurozone's retail sales monthly rate in April - June 6, 20:30: US unemployment rate in May; US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls (in 10,000 people) in May [1]