来源：市场资讯 （来源：海运经纪） 雪佛龙公司已发出自美国政府上月恢复其在该受制裁国家运营许可后的首批两船委内瑞拉原油。Mediterranean Voyager号与Canopus Voyager号上周 五载着哈马卡（Hamaca）和博斯坎（Boscan）重质原油离开委内瑞拉水域，分别驶向美国西海岸和得克萨斯州亚瑟港。 此举标志着今年早些时候被突然中断的贸易流初步重启——当时白宫撤销雪佛龙许可导致委内瑞拉出口骤降20%，令本已举步维艰的石油行业雪 上加霜。恢复的许可附带关键限制：委内瑞拉马杜罗政府不得获得收入，旨在平衡制裁执行与美国供应需求。 美国墨西哥湾炼油商仍青睐委内瑞拉重质原油，因其与专为加工墨西哥、加拿大同类原油设计的焦化装置兼容。随着墨西哥削减重油出口且加拿 大管道运输受限，雪佛龙的回归或缓解瓦莱罗能源公司（Valero Energy）等炼油商的原料焦虑——据报道该公司正就雪佛龙的供应协议进行谈 判。 从地缘政治角度看，恢复出口凸显美国能源安全关切可能压倒强硬制裁立场，尤其在国内炼油商面临原料失衡时。雪佛龙CEO迈克·沃斯（Mike Wirth）强调初始贸易量还比较小，但即便少量委内瑞拉原油也可能改 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its interest rate policy until December, with a potential rate cut marking the end of the current easing cycle [1] - Economists have delayed their expectations for another rate cut by three months compared to the July survey, anticipating that the deposit rate will remain at 1.75% for nine to ten months until demand recovers [1] - The ECB's decision-making timeline has been pushed to the end of 2025, allowing for a more thorough assessment of the economic impact from trade tensions initiated by former U.S. President Trump [4] Group 2 - Global central banks are exhibiting a cautious policy stance, with the Federal Reserve remaining inactive this year and the Bank of England acknowledging "substantial uncertainty" [4] - Following the ECB's decision to keep rates unchanged last month, several officials indicated that there is currently no necessity for further rate cuts, leading to a market adjustment of the September rate cut expectations [4] - If the ECB misses the opportunity for a rate cut in December, financial markets may conclude that the easing cycle has officially ended, with a prior survey indicating that half of respondents believed the ECB might skip three consecutive meetings [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of tariffs in shaping global trade dynamics and market outlooks, particularly in 2025, highlighting the need for timely insights and foresight to navigate the evolving landscape [3]. Group 1: Webinar Details - The upcoming webinar will focus on growth, tariffs, and market impacts, featuring Bloomberg economists and industry experts [4]. - The event is scheduled for July 10, 2025, from 14:00 to 15:00, and will be conducted in English with simplified Chinese subtitles available [2][4]. - Key topics include an in-depth analysis of U.S. economic dynamics, the current trade landscape's impact on China, and the latest developments in trade negotiations [4]. Group 2: Expert Insights - The webinar will provide insights from Anna Wong, Bloomberg's Chief Economist for the U.S., and other notable economists, aimed at dissecting the implications of tariff negotiations on various industries [2][3]. - Participants will gain access to Bloomberg's economic research models regarding the impact of tariffs, which will aid in understanding potential opportunities and risks [4].

Group 1 - The core issue is Japan's decision to consider imposing a 10% tax on small packages from China, which is seen as a provocative move amid ongoing U.S. pressure [2][4][5] - Japan's shift towards taxing Chinese goods comes as a surprise, as many expected it to align with China against U.S. demands [2][5] - The backdrop of this decision includes the increasing competition from Chinese e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu, which have posed significant challenges to U.S. and European markets [4][5] Group 2 - Japan's automotive industry, including brands like Toyota and Nissan, still holds a significant market share in China, approximately 14%, despite facing challenges from local competitors [7] - The potential for Japan to face retaliatory tariffs from China is raised, especially if Japan continues to impose taxes on Chinese goods while the U.S. has already increased tariffs on Japanese automobiles [9][11] - Japan's current economic strategy must focus on stabilizing its domestic economy and avoiding further pressure from the U.S., rather than hastily taxing Chinese imports [15][11]