Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its interest rate policy until December, with a potential rate cut marking the end of the current easing cycle [1] - Economists have delayed their expectations for another rate cut by three months compared to the July survey, anticipating that the deposit rate will remain at 1.75% for nine to ten months until demand recovers [1] - The ECB's decision-making timeline has been pushed to the end of 2025, allowing for a more thorough assessment of the economic impact from trade tensions initiated by former U.S. President Trump [4] Group 2 - Global central banks are exhibiting a cautious policy stance, with the Federal Reserve remaining inactive this year and the Bank of England acknowledging "substantial uncertainty" [4] - Following the ECB's decision to keep rates unchanged last month, several officials indicated that there is currently no necessity for further rate cuts, leading to a market adjustment of the September rate cut expectations [4] - If the ECB misses the opportunity for a rate cut in December, financial markets may conclude that the easing cycle has officially ended, with a prior survey indicating that half of respondents believed the ECB might skip three consecutive meetings [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of tariffs in shaping global trade dynamics and market outlooks, particularly in 2025, highlighting the need for timely insights and foresight to navigate the evolving landscape [3]. Group 1: Webinar Details - The upcoming webinar will focus on growth, tariffs, and market impacts, featuring Bloomberg economists and industry experts [4]. - The event is scheduled for July 10, 2025, from 14:00 to 15:00, and will be conducted in English with simplified Chinese subtitles available [2][4]. - Key topics include an in-depth analysis of U.S. economic dynamics, the current trade landscape's impact on China, and the latest developments in trade negotiations [4]. Group 2: Expert Insights - The webinar will provide insights from Anna Wong, Bloomberg's Chief Economist for the U.S., and other notable economists, aimed at dissecting the implications of tariff negotiations on various industries [2][3]. - Participants will gain access to Bloomberg's economic research models regarding the impact of tariffs, which will aid in understanding potential opportunities and risks [4].

目前，美国的关税问题依旧没有解决，而它对中国的措施又再度升级。对于日本而言，当前最为紧迫的任务便是与美国达成一项关税协议。美国财政部已经 发出最后通牒，若协议不能及时达成，关税将恢复至历史高位。 面对美国的强势施压，许多人原本以为日本可能会与中国联手，共同对抗美国的要求。然而，令人意外的是，日本选择了迎合美国，甚至开始考虑对中国的 小额包裹征税，税率高达10%。这是否意味着日本正打算实行闭关锁国政策？赚取中国的钱后，是否已经决定与中国"切割"？ 其实，早在十多年前，美国的电商平台，如亚马逊，尚未受到来自中国电商的威胁时，几乎没有对中国的小额包裹征税。而现在，随着以希音（Shein）、 Temu等平台为代表的中国电商的崛起，欧美国家的电商受到了极大的挑战，因此，针对中国电商的压力愈发增大。 值得注意的是，小额包裹通常是一些网购的日常商品，这些商品对美国、欧盟甚至日本而言，并没有直接的负面影响，反而可以为其市场带来实实在在的好 处。因为许多低端产品已经被这些国家淘汰，而中国的商品则能够填补这些空白，成为市场的补充。尤其是在通胀压力不断上升的今天，这些商品也为这些 国家的经济提供了重要支持。 面对这一局面，全球各国 ...