技术面分析：周五美盘时段，黄金暴涨最高触及3378一线，本质上是降息预期升温、经济风险加剧、美 元走弱三重因素共振的结果。其核心逻辑在于：美联储政策立场从"抗通胀优先"转向"就业与通胀平 衡"，市场对宽松周期的定价提前反映在黄金价格中。未来，需密切关注8月非农数据、CPI数据及美联 储9月议息会议，这些将决定降息预期能否持续兑现，进而影响黄金的中长期走势。 千里马常有，而伯乐不常有，人生最快意的三件事莫过于：棋逢对手，酒逢知己，将遇良才！实力打造 精典，成功绝非偶然！佛渡有缘人，我渡有心人！【更多行情资讯敬请关注"钟亿金"】 从技术面看，黄金直接走了一波慢跌向下，再次试探3320昨日低点，还是有些超预期，不过还在守住 3320，欧盘向上反弹了一波至3335，给了本钱调仓出局的机会；之后就提示，关注3320支撑得失，而此 时美盘只是刺破，又出现一波大阳拉升，意味着3325-3320支撑依然存在，下方还有3315的强支撑，稳 住这两个位置拉升且突破前高，那么说明黄金已开始转强，既然突破，对于后市行情回落3352-48附近 继续多即可！ 从黄金市场特性来看，黄金本身不产生利息收益，在低利率环境下更具投资价值。若鲍威 ...

预计新西兰联储本周将降息，在7月份经济出现停滞迹象后，再度启动宽松周期。机构调查的23位经济 学家中有22位表示，新西兰联储政策委员会将于周三下调官方现金利率25个基点至3%。一位预测不会 有变化。若降息，将使基准利率降至三年来的低点。新西兰联储上月维持利率不变，以评估通胀的上 升，但预计政策制定者将把注意力转向疲弱的经济增长。新西兰ASB 银行分析师Wesley Tanuvasa表 示："我们预计，官方现金利率（OCR）可能会维持在支持性水平一段时间，以刺激新西兰经济。年底 前的每一次利率决策都可能具有实际影响，而且年底前降至3%以下的可能性正在增加。" ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its interest rate policy until December, with a potential rate cut marking the end of the current easing cycle [1] - Economists have delayed their expectations for another rate cut by three months compared to the July survey, anticipating that the deposit rate will remain at 1.75% for nine to ten months until demand recovers [1] - The ECB's decision-making timeline has been pushed to the end of 2025, allowing for a more thorough assessment of the economic impact from trade tensions initiated by former U.S. President Trump [4] Group 2 - Global central banks are exhibiting a cautious policy stance, with the Federal Reserve remaining inactive this year and the Bank of England acknowledging "substantial uncertainty" [4] - Following the ECB's decision to keep rates unchanged last month, several officials indicated that there is currently no necessity for further rate cuts, leading to a market adjustment of the September rate cut expectations [4] - If the ECB misses the opportunity for a rate cut in December, financial markets may conclude that the easing cycle has officially ended, with a prior survey indicating that half of respondents believed the ECB might skip three consecutive meetings [4]

Economic Growth in Eurozone - Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, surpassing market expectations of stagnation, indicating that businesses are adapting to trade uncertainties [1] - Year-on-year GDP growth for Q2 was 1.4%, exceeding the market forecast of 1.2% [2] - Oxford Economics maintains a growth forecast of 1.1% for the Eurozone in 2023 and 0.8% in 2026 despite increased tariffs on European exports to the US [2] Country-Specific Performance - Spain's economy showed strong growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, while France recorded a 0.3% increase, offsetting declines in Germany and Italy, which contracted by 0.1% [2] - France's Q2 GDP growth was the fastest since Q3 2024, driven by inventory changes and a slight increase in household consumption [2] - Germany's GDP contraction was in line with expectations, with increased consumption and government spending but a decline in investment [3] Future Economic Outlook - Spain is expected to continue outperforming other Eurozone countries, with a projected annual growth rate of 2.5% despite a slight slowdown in the second half of the year [3] - The resilience of the Eurozone economy is supported by improving service sector performance and ongoing manufacturing recovery [3] - Market expectations suggest a 50% chance of the European Central Bank (ECB) lowering rates again in December, with potential rate hikes anticipated by the end of 2026 [3] ECB Policy Predictions - Deutsche Bank has withdrawn its prediction for further ECB rate cuts, expecting the next policy action to be a rate hike in late 2026 [4] - Other financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas, have also revised their forecasts, indicating the end of the ECB's rate-cutting cycle [4] - Analysts note that trade agreements have diminished the rationale for further rate cuts by the ECB [4]

Core Insights - Australia's job advertisements surged to the highest level in 12 months in June, driven by strong growth in the private sector, indicating resilience in the labor market amid lower interest rates [1] Group 1 - The increase in job advertisements reflects a tightening labor market in Australia [1] - Economists from ANZ Bank expect the current easing cycle to be relatively shallow due to the overall resilience of the economy [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to lower the overnight cash rate by 25 basis points in both July and August meetings [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the global industrial metal market is expected to remain in a loose cycle in the second half of the year, supporting price increases for industrial metals [1] - Domestic policy-driven demand is anticipated to gradually improve, leading to a release of demand elasticity for metals [1] - Supply constraints for metals like copper and aluminum are expected to continue, with a tightening supply-demand situation likely to further develop [1] Group 2 - For copper, the trend of shrinking supply elasticity is becoming evident, with processing fees continuing to decline and smelting profits under pressure, suggesting limited global copper supply growth in the second half [1] - In the aluminum sector, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with minimal production elasticity, while strong resilience in the new energy sector is expected to maintain demand [1] - The mining ETF tracks a non-ferrous metal mining index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry chain, which is closely related to commodity price fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, indicated that the central bank will closely monitor financial stability risks when deciding on further interest rate cuts, while continuing its easing cycle [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is currently in a monetary easing cycle [1] - Financial stability risks will be a key consideration in future interest rate decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea, led by Governor Lee Chang-yong, continues to remain in an accommodative monetary policy cycle [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is maintaining its current stance on monetary policy, indicating ongoing support for economic growth [1] - The central bank's commitment to a loose monetary policy suggests a focus on stimulating the economy amid prevailing economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence among investment banks regarding the relationship between interest rate cuts and gold prices, suggesting that a loose monetary policy may actually be bearish for gold, contrary to common belief [1] Group 1: Investment Bank Perspectives - Citigroup challenges the conventional wisdom that lower interest rates will boost gold prices, arguing that a period of monetary easing could lead to a decline in gold demand [1] - The article highlights that geopolitical risks may have peaked, potentially accelerating capital outflows from gold investments [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The concept of "smart money" is mentioned, indicating that sophisticated investors may be poised to exploit emerging opportunities in the market, particularly in the context of the current economic environment [1] - Both the US dollar and gold are experiencing "counter-consensus trading" opportunities, suggesting that market dynamics may not align with traditional expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI data showing a 2.4% year-over-year increase in May has heightened market expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of the year, which could significantly impact global financial markets, particularly the digital asset market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Shift - The consensus among Federal Reserve officials indicates at least one interest rate cut is expected this year, supported by the 2.4% CPI increase, alleviating concerns about stagflation and paving the way for a loosening monetary policy [2][6]. - A shift to lower interest rates is likely to increase liquidity and reduce funding costs, making risk assets, including digital assets, more attractive to investors [2][5]. Group 2: Digital Asset Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $90,000 and $110,000 since late 2024, with mixed market sentiment driven by ETF and institutional buying pressure, alongside high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4]. - Several key triggers are aligning, such as favorable policies in Asian markets, which could lead to a decisive upward movement in the digital asset market [4][6]. Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - Institutions are currently focusing on defensive positions in digital assets like Bitcoin and certain staking assets due to high interest rates, but a shift to riskier, high-growth assets is anticipated once interest rates begin to decline [6][7]. - The potential for a "Davis Double" effect on the valuation of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major altcoins is expected as the market adjusts to a new interest rate environment [5][6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and User Protection - The company emphasizes the importance of user experience and risk management, providing a robust protection fund and maintaining high liquidity to ensure user trust during market fluctuations [7][8]. - The macroeconomic landscape in 2025 is projected to be a pivotal turning point, with interest rate cuts signaling a shift in capital flows, market preferences, and asset revaluation, positioning digital assets as a key area of growth [7][8].