澳新银行研究部的Kausani Basak和Sanjay Mathur在一份报告中写道，泰国央行意外下调政策利率，标志 着其宽松周期的结束。此次降息预计将减轻中小企业和家庭的债务负担。澳新银行指出，该央行的货币 政策委员会目前认为，当前的政策利率已足够宽松。泰国央行还将监测可能源自长期低利率的任何金融 失衡积聚情况。 澳新银行研究部的Kausani Basak和Sanjay Mathur在一份报告中写道，泰国央行意外下调政策利率，标志 着其宽松周期的结束。此次降息预计将减轻中小企业和家庭的债务负担。澳新银行指出，该央行的货币 政策委员会目前认为，当前的政策利率已足够宽松。泰国央行还将监测可能源自长期低利率的任何金融 失衡积聚情况。 责任编辑：何云 责任编辑：何云 ...

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专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-29 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. The large holdings of silver ETFs will keep the available inventory of London silver at a low level. The silver premium in India has significantly rebounded at the beginning of the year, and the new silver mortgage regulations will take effect in April. It is expected that India's silver imports in the first quarter will significantly increase, providing strong support for the spot demand for silver. Therefore, the upward driving force for the silver price still exists. The current strategy is to focus on the support levels of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and conduct buy-on-dips operations after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 970 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16870 - 22000 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Quotes - On January 13, 2026, Shanghai gold rose 1.31% to 1030.26 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23% to 21268.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4608.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 85.16 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.19%, and the US dollar index was 98.90 [1] - The US federal prosecutor announced a criminal investigation into the current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which has greatly impacted the Fed's independence. If Powell resigns under pressure, the new Fed Chairman will start a fast - paced easing cycle, which has strongly boosted the prices of gold and silver [1] 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) on January 12, 2026, was 4608.80 US dollars/ounce, up 2.00% from January 9; the trading volume was 28.19 million lots, up 42.36%; the position was 48.81 million lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1129 tons, unchanged. LBMA gold's closing price was 4612.95 US dollars/ounce, up 2.65%. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) was 1026.28 yuan/gram, up 1.97%; the trading volume was 42.21 million lots, up 58.40%; the position was 33.34 million lots, up 4.65%; the inventory was 97.65 tons, unchanged; the settled funds were 54.747 billion yuan, an inflow of 6.71%. AuT + D's trading volume was 57.43 tons, up 77.11%; the position was 187.67 tons, up 1.27% [5] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) on January 12, 2026, was 85.16 US dollars/ounce, up 6.72% from January 9; the position was 15.32 million lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13607 tons, down 0.51%. LBMA silver's closing price was 84.07 US dollars/ounce, up 7.59%. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 20945.00 yuan/kilogram, up 11.82%; the trading volume was 247.48 million lots, up 8.31%; the position was 71.48 million lots, up 5.44%; the inventory was 649.64 tons, up 4.74%; the settled funds were 40.422 billion yuan, an inflow of 17.90%. AgT + D's trading volume was 411.21 tons, up 33.37%; the position was 3042.48 tons, down 0.61% [5] 3.3 Market Structure and Spread - **Gold**: The near - far month structure of COMEX gold, the spread between London gold spot and COMEX gold continuous one, the near - far month structure of Shanghai gold, and the spread between Au(T + D) and Shanghai gold continuous one are presented in relevant charts [21][23] - **Silver**: The near - far month structure of COMEX silver, the spread between London silver and COMEX silver continuous one, the near - far month structure of Shanghai silver, and the spread between Ag(T + D) and Shanghai silver continuous one are presented in relevant charts [34][36] - **Internal - External Spread**: On January 12, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX spread of gold was - 11.41 yuan/gram (- 50.89 US dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 4.65 yuan/gram (- 20.76 US dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX spread of silver was 2099.91 yuan/kilogram (9.37 US dollars/ounce) [49]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Bank has significantly raised its price forecasts for a range of metal commodities, citing supply-demand imbalances and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts as factors supporting rising metal prices [1] Group 1: Price Forecast Adjustments - Barclays has increased its copper price forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 16%, 13%, and 10%, reaching $5.68, $5.64, and $5.59 per pound respectively [1] - The forecast adjustments for precious metals are even more substantial, with silver prices raised by 65% and 44% for 2026 and 2027, reaching $75 and $65 per ounce respectively [1] - Gold price forecasts have been increased by 15% and 6% for the same periods, reaching $4,550 and $4,250 per ounce respectively [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Analysts express optimism towards mining companies, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will enter a loosening cycle, which could drive inflation and weaken the dollar, presenting upward risks for copper and precious metals [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of 28.8 billion HKD on January 6 and a record high of 187.2 billion HKD on January 5, marking the highest single-day inflow in nearly two and a half months [1] - In 2025, the total net purchase of southbound funds reached 1.4 trillion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of 73.89%, the highest since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2014 [1] - Xu Meng, head of the quantitative investment department at Huaxia Fund, predicts that 2026 will be a year of valuation contraction and profit growth for Hong Kong stocks, with continued inflows of southbound funds expected [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180.SH) serves as a benchmark for the Hong Kong technology sector, covering internet, hard technology, and new energy vehicle sectors [2] - The enhanced Hang Seng Technology ETF (159101.SZ) adds exposure to the biotechnology sector and increases the weight limit for individual constituent stocks to 15% [2] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH) focuses on software applications and internet media, with major companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan accounting for nearly 40% of its weight [2] - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892.SZ) targets innovative drugs and leading CXO companies, currently characterized by low valuations and low crowding [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum due to heightened geopolitical tensions, reaching a one-week high of $4,450, with a significant increase of 2.78% from the previous closing price of $4,328.35 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 5, gold opened at $4,346.46 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,344.06, and later surged to a high of $4,455.48 before closing at $4,448.83, with a daily fluctuation of $111.42 [1] - The price recovered from a previous decline, indicating strong bullish momentum, and is expected to rely on support from the 5-10 day moving averages for further upward movement [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - On January 6, gold prices initially declined due to profit-taking after the recent rise, with the market awaiting significant economic data releases [3] - If geopolitical tensions escalate or if U.S. economic data strengthens expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, gold may challenge historical highs again [3] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026, which, combined with ongoing central bank gold purchases and persistent inflation above 2%, suggests a continued bullish trend for gold prices [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates a potential for a significant pullback to the $4,000-$3,900 range, but if the current bullish momentum continues, gold could rise to the $5,500-$6,000 range [5] - Weekly analysis shows that while there was a recent downturn, the overall trend remains upward, with support expected around the 10-week moving average at $4,230 and the 30-week moving average near $4,000 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, reaching a high of $4,455.48 and closing at $4,448.83, marking a significant increase of 2.78% from the previous close of $4,328.35 [1][3][5] Price Movement - Gold opened at $4,346.46 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,344.06, and then rebounded to a high of $4,455.48 during the day, ultimately closing at $4,448.83 with a daily range of $111.42 [3][5] - The market is currently observing a potential pullback due to profit-taking and anticipation of key economic data releases, such as the non-farm payroll report [3][5] Market Outlook - If geopolitical tensions escalate or if U.S. economic data strengthens expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may challenge historical highs again [3][5] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026, which could provide further support for gold prices [5] Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have shown a significant pullback, indicating potential risks of a larger correction towards the $4,000-$3,900 range [7] - However, if the current momentum continues, there is potential for gold to reach $5,500-$6,000 [7] - Weekly analysis suggests that while there may be a pullback towards the 10-week moving average at $4,230, the overall trend remains bullish, providing opportunities for re-entry into long positions [7][9] Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,410 and $4,380, while resistance levels are at $4,480 and $4,500 [9] - For silver, support is noted at $75.10 and $74.10, with resistance at $78.00 and $79.30 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time, aligning with market expectations, as inflation hovers around target levels and the Eurozone economy shows resilience [1][6]. Economic Performance - The Eurozone economy appears more robust than in recent months, maintaining expansion even during severe trade tensions, with third-quarter performance exceeding expectations [1]. - A recent business survey by S&P Global indicates stable economic momentum in the final months of the year, supported by fiscal stimulus measures in Germany [1]. Inflation and Future Projections - The latest forecasts suggest a more robust economic expansion, with inflation expected to remain below the target level for the next two years before returning to 2% by 2028 [1]. - The ECB's assessment reaffirms that inflation will stabilize at the 2% target in the medium term [1]. Policy Outlook - Most ECB officials have signaled readiness to accept a temporary period of inflation below target, indicating that minor deviations do not necessitate immediate action [6]. - The long pause in interest rates will cap the current easing cycle at eight rate cuts, with future actions likely leaning towards rate hikes [6]. - Economists generally expect the Eurozone policy rate to remain at current levels until 2027, contrasting with the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, which have recently cut rates [6]. Market Expectations - Investors are beginning to lower expectations for further global easing, betting that the ECB may initiate its first rate hike as early as 2026 [7]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to hold a press conference following the rate decision to elaborate on the bank's judgments [7].

Group 1 - The UK's unemployment rate has risen to 5.1%, the highest level since early 2021, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, aligning with economists' expectations [1][5] - Average wage growth, excluding bonuses, has decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, marking the lowest level since early 2022, with private sector wage growth falling below 4% for the first time since 2020 [1][5] - The number of employees on payroll has decreased by 38,000, exceeding expectations, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market [1][5] Group 2 - The Bank of England is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.75%, as multiple indicators suggest a loss of growth momentum in the UK economy [5][12] - The upcoming budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves is causing uncertainty among businesses, leading to delays in new project investments [5][12] - The unemployment rate for young people has risen to 13.4%, the highest level in over a year, with nearly 550,000 individuals aged 18 to 24 unemployed, marking a new high since 2015 [8][12] Group 3 - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee is facing a critical decision regarding the continuation of the easing cycle, as the neutral interest rate is approaching, which complicates future rate cuts [12][13] - The inflation rate remains high at 3.6% as of October, and the government's budget measures may exacerbate inflationary pressures by increasing operational costs for businesses [12][13] - Economists predict that the Bank of England's base rate may drop to 3.25% by the second half of next year, with market expectations indicating a stabilization around 3.4% [13]