Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The market has digested the negative impact of the significant year - on - year increase in May's import data in advance. The basis remains above 400 yuan/ton, strongly supporting Zhengzhou sugar. With the decrease in warehouse receipts and the market price showing certain resilience, the 5600 yuan/ton support line is expected to be effective if the international market doesn't decline further [59]. - In the international market, Brazil's production data in the second half of May exceeded market expectations, and the sugar - making ratio continued to rise, suppressing prices. However, due to the rising crude oil price and the influence of the sugar - alcohol ratio, and the fact that Pakistan will purchase 750,000 tons of sugar, which may boost international sugar prices in the short term [59]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - long trading [60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded this week with a weekly increase of 0.99%, while ICE sugar futures were searching for a bottom with a weekly decline of 1.15% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No detailed description of spot price trends, but the basis remains above 400 yuan/ton, strongly supporting Zhengzhou sugar [59]. - **National Production and Sales Situation**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar July contract price of 17 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4632 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5889 yuan/ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost was 4656 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5920 yuan/ton [23]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [26]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 28,279, a decrease of 837 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 28,279, and the effective forecast was 0 [34]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the second half of May, the cumulative crushing volume was 127 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.85%, and the sugar production was 6.954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.64% [38]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in central - southern Brazil was 49.99%, compared with 47.81% in the same period last year [40]. - **Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports**: In May, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.2532 million tons, a decrease of 557,500 tons compared with the same period last year [47]. - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: In Brazil, rainfall in the main production areas increased slightly, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. In India, the monsoon brought abundant precipitation [54][55].

互征关税后 加拿大对美商品出口创五年来最大降幅 智通财经5月6日电，加拿大对美国出口大幅下降，而对其他国家出口飙升，凸显出贸易流正受到关税的 影响。加拿大统计局周二公布的数据显示，加拿大对美国出口下降6.6%，为近五年来最大降幅，进口 下降2.9%。然而，对其他国家的出口增长了24.8%，几乎完全抵消了对美国出口的下降。从其他国家的 进口也增长1%。因此，加拿大对全球的商品贸易逆差收窄至5.06亿加元，低于2月的14亿加元。该国对 美国的贸易顺差从2月的108亿加元缩小至84亿加元。 ...