Core Insights - The export value of the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina for the period from January to October this year reached 4.447 billion marks, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [1] - The import value during the same period was 6.293 billion marks, showing a growth of 3.2% [1] - The trade deficit has narrowed, with an import-export coverage rate of 70.7% [1] Export and Import Details - The largest export destination for the Republika Srpska is Croatia, with exports amounting to 784 million marks, followed closely by Serbia at 751 million marks [1] - The main sources of imports are Serbia, contributing 1.142 billion marks, and Italy, with imports worth 881 million marks [1] - The top export commodity is electricity, valued at 436 million marks, while the leading import commodity is oil and asphalt mineral extraction oils, totaling 405 million marks [1] Monthly Performance - In October, the Republika Srpska recorded an export value of 490 million marks and an import value of 709 million marks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strength of the US dollar, despite two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is primarily supported by the resilience of the US economy, inflation, and employment data [1][3][30]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points from September to November, yet the dollar index rose from 96.64 to 100.15, driven by unexpected inflation resilience, which remained at 3.0% in September, exceeding the 2% target [5][15]. - Non-farm payrolls in September surged to 119,000, significantly higher than the 73,000 and 22,000 in July and August, respectively, indicating a rebound in sectors like healthcare and education [6]. - The unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.4%, reflecting a complex labor market [7]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts have created uncertainty in the market, with a 71% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December and a 29% chance of maintaining the current rate [11][30]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield remains at 4.06%, with real yields exceeding 1.8%, maintaining attractiveness for investors [11]. Market Liquidity - The US government shutdown has restricted liquidity, while the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet, leading to a tightening of liquidity conditions that further supports the dollar [15][30]. Economic Growth - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 is projected to reach 4.2%, with private investment growth revised upward from 1.3% to 4.9%, indicating a strong economic foundation for the dollar [15][30]. Global Economic Context - The strength of the dollar is also influenced by the poor performance of other major currencies, such as the euro, yen, and pound, which are struggling with their own economic challenges [17][19][21][23]. - The eurozone's GDP growth is forecasted at 1.4%, but persistent inflation pressures hinder its recovery, while Japan faces a "high inflation, weak growth" cycle [19][21]. - The UK is experiencing high inflation at 3.6% and rising unemployment, making further appreciation of the pound against the dollar unlikely [23]. Trade Balance - The US trade deficit is narrowing, with a reported deficit of $328.1 billion from April to August 2025, a decrease of 11.7% year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in goods imports [26][28]. - The average monthly imports have decreased by 18.3% compared to the first three months of the year, while the US economy continues to grow, which is a crucial factor supporting the dollar [28]. Conclusion - The current high volatility of the dollar is a result of the resilience of the US economy, global economic divergence, and policy disagreements, suggesting that the market should remain patient regarding expectations of a weaker dollar [30][33].

Group 1 - India's trade deficit narrowed significantly in June, with the goods trade deficit falling to $18.78 billion, lower than the expected $22.24 billion and the previous month's $21.88 billion, primarily due to a substantial decrease in imports [1] - Total imports in June decreased to $53.92 billion from $60.61 billion in May, with crude oil imports reducing by $1 billion to $13.7 billion and gold imports dropping by 28% to $1.8 billion [1] - Overall goods exports fell by 9% month-on-month to $35.14 billion, marking a seven-month low, although exports to the US increased by 23.53% year-on-year to $8.27 billion despite a 10% tariff hike [1] Group 2 - The decline in international oil prices and a sharp reduction in non-oil imports contributed to the improvement in the trade deficit, with expectations that the current account deficit will narrow to 0.7% of GDP in Q1 FY2026, a decrease of 20 basis points year-on-year [3] - For the first quarter of the current fiscal year (April-June), total goods trade showed a year-on-year increase of 4.2% for exports and 1.9% for imports, indicating a continuous optimization of trade structure [3] - The Indian government is negotiating a temporary trade agreement with the US to avoid potential high tariffs, in response to recent tariff adjustments by the US targeting countries with perceived trade imbalances [3] Group 3 - In the first five months of 2025, India's total exports to the US reached $47.15 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 25.6%, while imports from the US rose by 8.2% to $18.25 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $28.91 billion [3] - Notably, US exports to India showed a marked increase in Q2 2025, rising from ₹20.89 billion in the same period last year to ₹25.52 billion [3] Group 4 - Barclays research indicates that the average effective import tariff on Indian goods by the US increased significantly from 2.7% to 11.6% after April 2025, impacting bilateral trade relations and becoming a key topic in ongoing negotiations [4]