Core Insights - The U.S. added more jobs than expected in January, reaffirming the economy's resilience, but it does not provide clearer guidance for policymakers [1] - Despite a more predictable economic situation compared to early last year, uncertainty for the Federal Reserve remains higher than for many other central banks [1] - For fixed-income investors, the conclusion is that "credit fundamentals are decent, and macroeconomic conditions are acceptable" [1] Credit Market Analysis - Concerns about corporate bond valuations being high compared to a year ago have diminished [1] - It is believed that credit spreads may remain at current levels or even slightly narrow further [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - The mid - term of precious metal futures will experience wide - range fluctuations. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations in Oman ended with an agreement to continue dialogue. The Fed chair has been determined, and the market's trading on the new Fed chair has temporarily ended. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in February reached 57.3, the highest in six months, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year. The Fed's Beige Book shows that 8 out of 12 Federal Reserve Districts had slight to moderate economic growth, 3 reported no change, and 1 reported a moderate decline, an improvement from the past three reporting cycles. The US economy remains resilient, which provides more support for its geopolitical intervention. The recent weakening of risk - aversion factors has dampened the enthusiasm for going long on precious metals, and precious metals may enter a high - level oscillation in the mid - term [1] Key Factors to Watch - Middle - East geopolitical risk evolution, Fed leadership change, and US economic data [2] Report Content Summaries by Sections 1. Futures Market Review - The report presents figures on the internal and external prices of gold and silver futures, as well as the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai gold and silver futures, with data sourced from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [3][7] 2. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report shows figures on the US dollar index and gold price, as well as US interest rates and gold price, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [14] 3. Macroeconomic Data - The report includes figures on US CPI inflation data, PCE inflation data, weekly initial jobless claims, unemployment rate and new non - farm payrolls, PMI, retail and personal disposable income, new private housing starts, and new housing sales, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [18][22][25][26] 4. Fund Holdings and Ratios - The report provides figures on the total holdings of silver and gold ETFs, the holding ratios of gold and silver asset management institutions, the gold - silver ratio, and the gold - copper ratio, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [29][32][35]

Core Viewpoint - Despite uncertainties related to tariffs and investment opportunities in other regions, companies are still focusing on the U.S. market, indicating its resilience and ongoing demand for mergers and capital [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Mark Mason, CFO of Citigroup, stated that the U.S. economy has shown resilience amid trade tensions, with continued momentum in mergers and capital demand [1] - Many CEOs and CFOs are concerned about the potential impact of tariffs and their implications for inflation, but there is no sentiment among multinational companies to "sell off" their U.S. investments [1] Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Companies are expected to realize over time that betting against the U.S. is not advisable, reinforcing the notion that the U.S. remains a strong investment opportunity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data indicates that the resilience of the U.S. economy is strengthening, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI released on Monday showed a significant upward surprise, suggesting improved economic conditions [1] - Despite employment and inventory remaining in contraction territory, the rebound in the employment sub-index indicates that labor constraints on the economy may be easing [1] - Overall, these data reinforce the narrative that U.S. economic growth remains resilient [1] Group 2: Treasury Yields - According to Tradeweb data, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 1.4 basis points to 3.582% [1] - The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury increased by 1 basis point to 4.286% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic indicates that inflation remains unresolved due to tariffs, with concerns about high inflation persisting into the first half of 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - Strong economic growth is expected to continue, but inflation rates are projected to remain elevated, raising concerns [1] - The resilience of the U.S. economy is evident even without considering the impacts of tax cuts and deregulation [1] Labor Market and Interest Rates - No predictions are made regarding a deterioration in the labor market [1] - Bostic anticipates no interest rate cuts in 2026, suggesting that one or two rate cuts may be necessary to return to neutral levels [1]

Group 1 - Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks every trading day this year, with the Russell 2000 index rising 0.8% on Thursday, marking its eighth closing high in 2026 and the 14th consecutive day of outperforming the broader S&P 500 index, the longest streak since May 1996 [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. economic growth will accelerate above market consensus expectations, with inflation below consensus, leading the Federal Reserve to continue easing monetary policy [5] - The strong performance of the Russell 2000 index coincides with a cooling enthusiasm for artificial intelligence in the market, prompting traders to seek growth opportunities in other sectors as technology stocks lag [5] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that small-cap stocks need to demonstrate earnings support for their rapid rise to sustain new highs and continue outperforming the AI-driven S&P 500 index [5] - Market leadership is shifting, with a clear transition occurring, although some pullbacks are expected; the current trend is viewed as being in its early stages [5]

Market Reaction - U.S. stocks experienced a significant decline on January 20, with the S&P 500 index recording its worst performance in three months, closing down 2.06% or 143.15 points at 6,796.86 [1][2] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 2.39%, losing 561.065 points to close at 22,954.322, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 176% or 870.74 points, ending at 48,488.59 [2] Tariff Threats - President Trump announced plans to impose additional tariffs of 10% on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Great Britain, set to increase to 25% by June 1 [1] - Trump also threatened to impose 200% tariffs on French wines due to tensions with French President Emmanuel Macron [2] Treasury Yields and Safe Haven Assets - The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.293%, with analysts indicating that yields above 4.50% could pose challenges for markets and the economy [4] - Gold prices surged to a record high above $4,700 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid market volatility [3] Economic Outlook - Despite recent market volatility, economists maintain a positive outlook on the U.S. economy, citing "Goldilocks" economic data that supports market stability [5] - Upcoming inflation data, specifically the personal consumption expenditures price index, is anticipated to provide further insights into economic conditions [5]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 42.36 points (0.09%) to 49,149.63, the Nasdaq dropping by 1.00% to 23,471.75, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.53% to 6,926.60 [2] - Major bank stocks continued to struggle, with Wells Fargo down 4.6%, Citigroup and Bank of America both falling over 3% [2] - Technology stocks faced significant sell-offs, with notable declines including Nvidia down 1.4%, Tesla down 1.8%, and Microsoft and Amazon both down 2.4% [2] Banking Sector - Wells Fargo's Q4 earnings report showed revenue falling short of market expectations due to weak investment banking performance [2] - Citigroup reported a year-on-year decline in net profit, although revenue saw a year-on-year increase [2] - Concerns were raised by JPMorgan executives regarding proposed credit card interest rate caps potentially harming consumer interests and overall financial sector profitability [2] Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - The US retail sales for November increased by 0.6%, the highest since July of the previous year, surpassing market expectations of 0.4% [3] - Core retail sales, excluding automotive, rose by 0.5%, with 10 out of 13 categories showing growth [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, driven largely by a 4.6% rise in energy prices [3] Real Estate Market - December home sales in the US reached their highest level in nearly three years, supported by declining mortgage rates [4] - Market analysts predict that the positive growth momentum in home sales will continue into 2026, although supply constraints remain a significant challenge [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated slight to moderate economic growth in 8 out of 12 districts, with a generally optimistic outlook for future activity [4] - Fed officials expressed expectations for inflation to gradually decline and for economic growth to stabilize around 2% [4] - Market consensus suggests that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the first half of the year, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year [4]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a broad decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 42.36 points (0.09%) to 49,149.63, the Nasdaq dropping by 1.00% to 23,471.75, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.53% to 6,926.60 [3] - Major bank stocks continued to struggle, with Wells Fargo down 4.6%, Citigroup and Bank of America both declining over 3% due to weak investment banking performance [3] - Notable technology stocks also faced losses, with Nvidia down 1.4%, Tesla down 1.8%, and Microsoft and Amazon both down 2.4% [3] Economic Data - The US retail sales for November increased by 0.6%, the highest growth since July of the previous year, surpassing market expectations of 0.4% [4] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.5%, with 10 out of 13 categories showing growth [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with energy prices contributing significantly to the increase [5] Real Estate Market - December home sales in the US reached their highest level in nearly three years, driven by declining mortgage rates [5] - Analysts predict that the positive growth momentum observed in the second half of 2025 will continue into 2026, supported by an improving labor market and further slight declines in mortgage rates [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity grew at a slight to moderate pace in 8 out of 12 districts, with a generally optimistic outlook for future growth [6] - Fed officials expect inflation to gradually decline in 2026, with economic growth stabilizing around 2% [6] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the first half of the year, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year [6] Bond Market - US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 3.1 basis points to 4.14% and the 2-year yield down by 1.4 basis points to 3.51% [7] Commodity Market - International oil prices saw a significant drop, with WTI and Brent crude oil contracts retreating from earlier gains, both down approximately 1.5% [8] - Precious metals experienced strong gains, with gold futures rising by 0.81% to $4,626.30 per ounce and silver futures increasing by 5.81% to $90.86 per ounce, reaching historical highs [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy in 2025, despite challenges such as Trump's economic policies and government shutdowns, with retail sales in November exceeding expectations due to a rebound in automobile purchases and strong holiday shopping [2] - Retail sales increased by 0.6% in November, with the previous month's data revised down to a decline of 0.1%. Excluding automobiles, sales rose by 0.5% [2] - Ten out of thirteen retail categories recorded growth, including sporting goods, hobby stores, building materials retailers, and clothing stores, indicating broad-based consumer spending [2] Group 2 - The increase in retail sales was also supported by a rise in gasoline station sales, contributing to overall growth [2] - The holiday shopping season typically accelerates in November, with retailers offering promotions and discounts not only on "Black Friday" but also in the preceding days [2] - Despite ongoing concerns about affordability and job prospects, consumers took advantage of discounts, with affluent Americans continuing to support overall consumption [2][3]