说真的，最近交易员们有点像在"赌大小"。你看那些SOFR期权合约，押注9月降息50个基点的量一下子涨起来了，据说要是真成了，有些单子能赚十倍。 这背后的心思不难猜，大家觉得通胀压力小了，经济增速也放缓，美联储该"放水"了。但我得提醒一句，这种激进的押注，就像站在悬崖边看风景，好看 是好看，风险也不小。 各位老铁，早上好啊，我是帮主郑重。做了20年财经记者，见过不少市场大场面，但这周的杰克逊霍尔年会，还是得拎出来好好聊聊——全球的目光都 盯着鲍威尔那张嘴呢，尤其是现在市场上，不少人在豪赌美联储下个月要降息50个基点，这阵仗可不小。 我总说，做中长线投资，得学会"抓大放小"。杰克逊霍尔年会就像一场期末考试，鲍威尔的讲话是重点，但不是全部。咱们更该关注的是美国经济的韧 性、就业市场的变化，还有全球资金的流向。就像之前美债收益率下跌，说明资金在提前布局宽松预期，这种大方向的信号，比短期的"赌大小"靠谱多 了。 所以啊，明天鲍威尔讲话的时候，大家别光盯着"降息多少"这几个字，多听听他对经济前景的判断，对通胀的看法。要是他语气缓和，那市场可能接着 嗨；要是偏谨慎，短期波动肯定少不了。但无论如何，对咱们来说，保持平常心最重 ...

Summary of Federal Reserve Meeting Insights Industry Overview - The insights pertain to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the broader U.S. economy, particularly focusing on interest rates and economic performance. Key Points and Arguments Federal Reserve's Decision on Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, aligning with market expectations. However, there were two dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point cut in July [2][3][19]. - Market expectations for rate cuts in September and October decreased significantly, with probabilities dropping from 66% to 46% and from 82% to 65%, respectively [4][5]. Economic Performance - The U.S. economy showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 2% in the first half of the year. The second quarter saw an annualized growth rate of 3%, indicating positive economic momentum [3][6]. - Employment data remained strong, contributing to the Fed's decision to maintain the current interest rates [3][6]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Inflation pressures were described as manageable, with limited impact from tariffs. Although there was a slight increase in goods inflation, it was absorbed by manufacturers, and service inflation showed a moderate decline [8][9][16]. - The current Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands at 2.7%, with core CPI at 2.9%, suggesting that inflation is under control [16]. Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, with some members advocating for two cuts within the year while others oppose any immediate reductions [10][19]. - The dissenting votes in July's meeting highlighted this division, which is unusual for the Fed's decision-making process [10][19]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's meeting, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the Dow Jones index fell by 0.35%, indicating market adjustments to the revised expectations for interest rate cuts [12]. - The dollar strengthened while gold prices declined, reflecting changes in market sentiment regarding future monetary policy [12]. Future Considerations - The Fed's balance sheet reduction is nearing a halt, with minimal reductions in June. The potential for seasonal liquidity tightness in September is a point of concern [7][18]. - The Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy suggests that any future adjustments will depend on incoming economic data, particularly regarding employment and inflation trends [14][17]. Conclusion - The Federal Reserve's current stance reflects a careful balancing act between maintaining economic growth and managing inflation. The internal divisions and market reactions indicate a complex landscape for future monetary policy decisions [19].

金十数据8月1日讯，据华尔街日报报道，美国7月非农新增就业岗位7.3万个，低于经济学家预期的10万 个。失业率从4.1%微升至4.2%。在这份报告发布之际，经济学家与政策制定者正试图厘清两种相悖的 经济叙事何者更接近真相。乐观派认为经济展现惊人韧性：关税威胁虽已渗透部分商品价格，但尚未引 发显著通胀；年初持观望态度的消费者正重拾信心。悲观派则指出裂痕正在扩大：宝洁、Chipotle等企 业报告消费者价格敏感度上升，年轻群体尤其缩减非必要开支，经济增长愈发依赖最富裕阶层。劳动力 市场智库Burning Glass Institute高级研究员盖伊·伯杰认为经济仍保持稳定："几乎所有主要指标自去年秋 季以来都相当平稳。"政策环境已成为最大变数。伯杰指出："考虑到关税、移民限制和新税法案，我不 认为稳定态势能持续。" 7月非农爆冷 美国经济韧性遭遇"双面叙事" ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts express concern that significantly weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data could challenge the current strength of the U.S. dollar, potentially undermining the narrative of economic resilience in the face of tariff threats [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Analysts are pessimistic about the upcoming non-farm payroll report, suggesting it may disrupt the perception of U.S. economic resilience [1]

美联储鹰派继续 ——2025Q2 美国 GDP 和 7 月 FOMC 点评 宏 本报告导读： 美国二季度 GDP 超预期，"抢进口"下降、消费韧性和制造业回流投资是主要支撑， 预计后续美国经济仍有韧性，叠加关税在通胀中逐渐体现，美联储降息预期可能进 一步收窄。7 月份美联储议息会议继续按兵不动，但是内部分歧已经加大，后续美联 储独立性大概率仍可维持。美债利率中枢或将进一步抬升，美股仍有上行空间。 投资要点： 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 观 专 题 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.01 2025-08-01 [Table_Summary] 美国二季度 GDP 增速超预期，主要支撑来自进口下降、消费韧性 和私人非住宅投资。2025 年二季度美国 GDP 环比折年率达到 3.0%， 高于市场预期的 2.6%，同时也明显高于前值-0.5%。美国二季度 GDP 环比折年率超预期主要支撑来自"抢进口"下降、消费韧性和制造业 回流投资，主要拖累来自私人存货变化、私人住宅投资和商品服务 出口。向后看，我们认为：一是伴随着"抢进口"大幅减弱，进口下 降支撑会有 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US economy shows resilience, supported by a decline in imports, strong consumer spending, and a return of manufacturing investments, leading to a narrowing of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 2 - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous value of -0.5% [1] - Key supports for the GDP growth included a decrease in imports, resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment, while private inventory changes, residential investment, and goods and services exports were the main drags [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed internal divisions, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating increasing disagreement within the committee [2] - The Fed expressed greater uncertainty regarding economic and inflation outlooks, with tariffs beginning to impact consumer prices, suggesting that inflation data will be influenced by these tariffs [2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with a commitment to data-driven decisions, leading to a further reduction in market expectations for rate cuts throughout the year [2][3] - The expectation for interest rate cuts has narrowed, with only one potential cut anticipated in October, and the risk of no cuts for the entire year has increased [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of the year, reflecting a higher interest rate environment [3] - The US stock market is expected to experience some volatility but maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in sectors supported by capital expenditures and performance, such as AI and semiconductors [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold rose 0.09%, and London silver rose 2.05%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 89.4 the previous week to 87.5, the 10 - year TIPS fell to 2.03%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.44% (2 - year 3.88%), and the US dollar index was 98.46 [5]. - Gold prices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range and rose slightly. The June CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, with the core CPI year - on - year at 2.9% and the overall CPI at 2.7%. The US economy showed resilience after the tariff shock. Gold is difficult to have a trending market, while the gold - silver ratio continued to decline, and silver broke through 9,000 yuan/kg. If it breaks through 9,000 yuan, it may reach around $40 in the third quarter, but there is still downward pressure on prices in the second half of the year due to the weakening demand for silver paste [5]. - The price of silver tends to be stronger relative to gold, and the gold - silver ratio may be frequently repaired. When silver breaks through, there may be a rapid upward movement, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline, with gold also being relatively strong [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Change**: This week, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9,273 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.58%, and the night - session closing price was 4380 yuan, with a night - session decline of 1.68%. The closing price of Silver T + D was 9,211 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.03%. For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 777.02 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 870,782 lots, an increase of 269,669 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 479,676 lots, an increase of 76,720 lots. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2510 was 54,415 lots, a decrease of 12,354 lots, and the open interest was 129,798 lots, a decrease of 159 lots [6]. - **Inventory and Position Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 92,517 kg, and the inventory of Comex silver increased by 2,324,290 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai gold increased by 4,272 kg, and the inventory of Comex gold increased by 445,088 ounces [6]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The spot - to - futures price difference of silver decreased by 50 yuan, and that of gold increased by 0.61 yuan. The monthly price difference of silver decreased by 4 yuan, and that of gold increased by 0.8 yuan [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index closed at 98.46 this week, with a weekly increase of 0.60%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 7.18, with a weekly increase of 0.03% [6]. 3.2 Transaction - related Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Position) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Price Difference**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to -$15.55/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was -$10.5/ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract widened to -$0.686/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was -$0.145/ounce [11][14]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Price Difference**: This week, the gold spot - futures price difference was -4.26 yuan/g, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures price difference was -12 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range [17][20]. - **Monthly Price Difference**: This week, the gold monthly price difference was 5.4 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly price difference was 74 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range [24][28]. - **Cross - month Arbitrage Delivery Cost**: The cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 9.30 yuan/g, and that of buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract was 14.57 yuan/g. The cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 119.48 yuan/kg, and that of buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract was 167.88 yuan/kg [31][34]. - **Delivery Fee Direction**: This week, the gold delivery fee at the Shanghai Gold Exchange was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. The silver delivery fee was also mainly paid by longs to shorts [35]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.04 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 4.36 million ounces to 494.92 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 38.7%. The gold futures inventory increased by 3,129 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 36.15 tons to 1,303 tons [37][39][41]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Positions**: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 0.02 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 21.5 tons [49][51]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 91.8 last week to 90.4 [53]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [55]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rate**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [60]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Data on new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage were presented, showing the overall situation of the non - farm employment market [68][72]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - **Economic and Inflation Surprise Indexes**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The probability of Fed rate cuts in different time periods was presented, showing the market's expectations for Fed monetary policy [77].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by U.S. economic data and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, with a focus on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index as a key indicator for market direction [1][3]. Economic Data Analysis - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing market expectations, while initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, indicating economic resilience [1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a rate cut at the end of the month, citing persistent inflation pressures from tariffs [1]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices rebounded significantly, breaking through the 3340 resistance level and reaching around 3355, marking a recovery of over $45 from the week's low of 3310 [3]. - The market's recognition of the rebound is evident, with trading volume increasing by approximately 30% compared to the previous day [3]. Resistance and Support Levels - Primary resistance is identified in the 3365-3370 range, which is crucial for determining if the rebound can transition into a reversal [5]. - Short-term support is established at 3350-3355, while strong support is noted at 3340-3345, which is critical for maintaining bullish momentum [5]. Trading Strategy - The recommended strategy includes focusing on "buying on dips" while cautiously placing small short positions at strong resistance levels to balance risk and opportunity [5].

金十数据7月18日讯，在美国消费者信心数据公布前，美元有所回落，昨日在好于预期的数据提振下一 度触及三周半高点。周四公布的零售销售数据和费城联储制造业指数均强于预期，同时初请失业金人数 低于预期，都进一步表明美国经济颇具韧性。此外，在特朗普否认其试图解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的报道 后，市场也松了一口气。周五市场的主要焦点是将于今晚22:00公布的密歇根大学消费者信心调查。 美元有所回落 关注今晚消费者信心数据 ...

在当下经济前景迷雾重重之际，美国波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯为美联储的政策定调注入了一股冷静力量。她公开强调，面对不确定性，美联储对调整基 准利率应持"积极耐心"的审慎态度。这一表态为当前货币政策路径提供了清晰的注脚。 柯林斯在全美商业经济协会活动上的演讲，透露出她对当前美国经济韧性的信心。尽管关税政策引发市场对通胀抬升的普遍忧虑，但柯林斯却带来了相对温 和的评估——关税的整体影响可能不会如市场早前担忧的那般极端。她指出，企业具备灵活调整利润率的能力，而家庭消费支出也展现韧性，这两大缓冲机 制有望减轻关税带来的价格冲击。 美联储内部对此存在明显分歧。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比此前警告，新关税政策扰乱了通胀前景，增加了支持降息的决策难度。而美联储理事沃勒则持相反 观点，他上周重申，美联储可能考虑在七月降息，理由是他认为关税引发的通胀将是暂时现象，当前政策过于紧缩。 她进一步剖析了关税传导机制：进口价格上升确实会推高通胀，预计年底核心通胀率可能接近百分之三，同时对美国经济增长和就业产生抑制作用。但关键 在于，企业和消费者的缓冲能力改变了冲击的烈度。柯林斯认为，关税对劳动力市场和经济增长的不利影响因此可能更为有限，不会导 ...