Core Insights - The U.S. added more jobs than expected in January, reaffirming the economy's resilience, but it does not provide clearer guidance for policymakers [1] - Despite a more predictable economic situation compared to early last year, uncertainty for the Federal Reserve remains higher than for many other central banks [1] - For fixed-income investors, the conclusion is that "credit fundamentals are decent, and macroeconomic conditions are acceptable" [1] Credit Market Analysis - Concerns about corporate bond valuations being high compared to a year ago have diminished [1] - It is believed that credit spreads may remain at current levels or even slightly narrow further [1]

2026年02月09日 周报 期货研究报告 贵金属期货：中期宽幅震荡 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：伊朗与美国在阿曼举行的核谈判结束，双方就继续对话达成共识。双方在阐明各自 立场和诉求的同时，同意在与各自政府进行磋商后，就下一轮对话作出决定。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐称， 本轮美伊磋商是"良好开端"。美联储主席落地，市场对新联储主席的交易暂告一段落。美国2月密歇根 大学消费者信心指数初值录得57.3，创六个月来最高水平。与此同时，1年期通胀预期降至3.5%，为一年 来的最低水平。美联储褐皮书显示，在12个联邦储备区中，有8个地区的整体经济活动以轻微至温和的速 度增长，3个地区报告没有变化，1个地区报告温和下降。这比过去三个报告周期有所改善，此前大多数地 区报告经济活动变化不大。美国经济韧性依然比较强，这给美国对外地缘干预提供了更多支撑，近期避险 因素有所减弱，使得贵金属做多热情有所减弱，贵金属中期或陷入高位震荡局面。 关注因素：1.中东地区地缘风险演化 2.美联储高层更迭 3.美国经济数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite uncertainties related to tariffs and investment opportunities in other regions, companies are still focusing on the U.S. market, indicating its resilience and ongoing demand for mergers and capital [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Mark Mason, CFO of Citigroup, stated that the U.S. economy has shown resilience amid trade tensions, with continued momentum in mergers and capital demand [1] - Many CEOs and CFOs are concerned about the potential impact of tariffs and their implications for inflation, but there is no sentiment among multinational companies to "sell off" their U.S. investments [1] Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Companies are expected to realize over time that betting against the U.S. is not advisable, reinforcing the notion that the U.S. remains a strong investment opportunity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest data indicates that the resilience of the U.S. economy is strengthening, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI released on Monday showed a significant upward surprise, suggesting improved economic conditions [1] - Despite employment and inventory remaining in contraction territory, the rebound in the employment sub-index indicates that labor constraints on the economy may be easing [1] - Overall, these data reinforce the narrative that U.S. economic growth remains resilient [1] Group 2: Treasury Yields - According to Tradeweb data, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 1.4 basis points to 3.582% [1] - The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury increased by 1 basis point to 4.286% [1]

美联储博斯蒂克在最新的讲话中表示，由于关税的影响，通货膨胀问题仍未得到缓解。其对2026年上半 年的展望是，经济将保持强劲增长，但通货膨胀率仍将居高不下，这令人担忧。他表示，即便不考虑减 税政策和放松监管带来的影响，美国经济仍显现出强劲韧性。当前，没有人预测劳动力市场会恶化。博 斯蒂克还预计2026年不会有任何降息举措，再进行一到两次的降息就能恢复到中性水平。（注：博斯蒂 克担任亚特兰大联储主席的任期即将结束，他将于2月28日退休） ...

智通财经APP获悉，今年以来，美股小盘股在每一个交易日都跑赢了大盘股。周四，以小盘股为主的罗 素2000指数收涨0.8%，在2026年内第八次创下收盘新高，且连续第14个交易日跑赢更广泛的标普500指 数，创下自1996年5月以来小盘股相对大盘股最长的一段连胜纪录——当时正值互联网泡沫初期。 不过，Markets Live宏观策略师塔蒂亚娜·达里耶(Tatiana Darie)表示："尽管劳动力市场出现企稳迹象、 整体经济状况有所改善，但增长依然脆弱。如今，小盘股需要证明这轮快速上涨有盈利支撑，才能推动 指数创出新高，并持续跑赢由人工智能推动的标普500指数。" 罗素2000指数的优异表现，正值市场对人工智能的热情降温之际。对企业成本膨胀和盈利能力未经证实 的日益担忧，促使交易员转向其他领域寻找增长机会。随着科技股表现落后，小盘股从中受益。BTIG 首席市场技术分析师乔纳森·克林斯基(Jonathan Krinsky)表示："市场领涨板块正在发生明显切换，虽然 过程中会有回调，但我们希望坚持站在这一新趋势的一边，在我们看来，这一趋势仍处于早期阶段。" 年初小盘股占据主导地位 高盛在周四发布的一份报告中指出，其 ...

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Jan. 20, with the broad S&P 500 index posting its worst day in three months, as investors worried about President Donald Trump's tariff threats in his efforts to take over Greenland. Trump said on Jan. 17 he would impose additional 10% import tariffs on Feb. 1 that will rise to 25% on June 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Great Britain − all already subject to U.S. tariffs and opponents to his plan to acquire Greenland. ...

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 42.36 points (0.09%) to 49,149.63, the Nasdaq dropping by 1.00% to 23,471.75, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.53% to 6,926.60 [2] - Major bank stocks continued to struggle, with Wells Fargo down 4.6%, Citigroup and Bank of America both falling over 3% [2] - Technology stocks faced significant sell-offs, with notable declines including Nvidia down 1.4%, Tesla down 1.8%, and Microsoft and Amazon both down 2.4% [2] Banking Sector - Wells Fargo's Q4 earnings report showed revenue falling short of market expectations due to weak investment banking performance [2] - Citigroup reported a year-on-year decline in net profit, although revenue saw a year-on-year increase [2] - Concerns were raised by JPMorgan executives regarding proposed credit card interest rate caps potentially harming consumer interests and overall financial sector profitability [2] Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - The US retail sales for November increased by 0.6%, the highest since July of the previous year, surpassing market expectations of 0.4% [3] - Core retail sales, excluding automotive, rose by 0.5%, with 10 out of 13 categories showing growth [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, driven largely by a 4.6% rise in energy prices [3] Real Estate Market - December home sales in the US reached their highest level in nearly three years, supported by declining mortgage rates [4] - Market analysts predict that the positive growth momentum in home sales will continue into 2026, although supply constraints remain a significant challenge [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated slight to moderate economic growth in 8 out of 12 districts, with a generally optimistic outlook for future activity [4] - Fed officials expressed expectations for inflation to gradually decline and for economic growth to stabilize around 2% [4] - Market consensus suggests that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the first half of the year, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year [4]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a broad decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 42.36 points (0.09%) to 49,149.63, the Nasdaq dropping by 1.00% to 23,471.75, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.53% to 6,926.60 [3] - Major bank stocks continued to struggle, with Wells Fargo down 4.6%, Citigroup and Bank of America both declining over 3% due to weak investment banking performance [3] - Notable technology stocks also faced losses, with Nvidia down 1.4%, Tesla down 1.8%, and Microsoft and Amazon both down 2.4% [3] Economic Data - The US retail sales for November increased by 0.6%, the highest growth since July of the previous year, surpassing market expectations of 0.4% [4] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.5%, with 10 out of 13 categories showing growth [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with energy prices contributing significantly to the increase [5] Real Estate Market - December home sales in the US reached their highest level in nearly three years, driven by declining mortgage rates [5] - Analysts predict that the positive growth momentum observed in the second half of 2025 will continue into 2026, supported by an improving labor market and further slight declines in mortgage rates [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity grew at a slight to moderate pace in 8 out of 12 districts, with a generally optimistic outlook for future growth [6] - Fed officials expect inflation to gradually decline in 2026, with economic growth stabilizing around 2% [6] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the first half of the year, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year [6] Bond Market - US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 3.1 basis points to 4.14% and the 2-year yield down by 1.4 basis points to 3.51% [7] Commodity Market - International oil prices saw a significant drop, with WTI and Brent crude oil contracts retreating from earlier gains, both down approximately 1.5% [8] - Precious metals experienced strong gains, with gold futures rising by 0.81% to $4,626.30 per ounce and silver futures increasing by 5.81% to $90.86 per ounce, reaching historical highs [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy in 2025, despite challenges such as Trump's economic policies and government shutdowns, with retail sales in November exceeding expectations due to a rebound in automobile purchases and strong holiday shopping [2] - Retail sales increased by 0.6% in November, with the previous month's data revised down to a decline of 0.1%. Excluding automobiles, sales rose by 0.5% [2] - Ten out of thirteen retail categories recorded growth, including sporting goods, hobby stores, building materials retailers, and clothing stores, indicating broad-based consumer spending [2] Group 2 - The increase in retail sales was also supported by a rise in gasoline station sales, contributing to overall growth [2] - The holiday shopping season typically accelerates in November, with retailers offering promotions and discounts not only on "Black Friday" but also in the preceding days [2] - Despite ongoing concerns about affordability and job prospects, consumers took advantage of discounts, with affluent Americans continuing to support overall consumption [2][3]