Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year and 5-year loans remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively as of July 21, 2025 [1] - The recent stability in policy interest rates has kept the LPR pricing foundation unchanged, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate serving as the new pricing anchor [2] - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target [2] Group 2 - The net interest margin of commercial banks has been under pressure, with the average net interest margin dropping to a historical low of 1.43% at the end of Q1, a decrease of 9 basis points from the end of the previous year [4] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in the first half of the year was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was about 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [4] - The high proportion of time deposits continues to limit the overall downward space for deposit costs, despite a significant reduction in deposit rates [4] Group 3 - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in Q3 or Q4, with expectations that the LPR may follow suit [5] - The ongoing trade tensions are likely to slow down export growth, necessitating a focus on domestic demand [5] - The low nominal interest rates combined with persistently low PPI are leading to higher real financing costs, which may impact effective credit demand [5]

美国7月费城联储制造业指数 15.9，预期-1，前值-4。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for June is reported at -4, which is below the expected -1 and unchanged from the previous value of -4 [1] Summary by Category Economic Indicators - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as a negative value suggests a decline in activity [1] - The index's current value of -4 reflects a weaker performance than anticipated, signaling potential challenges for manufacturers in the region [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for June is reported at -4, which is below the expected -1 and matches the previous value of -4 [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing index indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as a negative value suggests a decline in activity [1] - The index's performance is a key indicator for assessing the health of the manufacturing industry in the region [1] - The deviation from expectations may signal potential challenges for manufacturers in the area [1]

Group 1 - Canadian retail sales for April and the U.S. June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index are set to be released in ten minutes [1]

Core Insights - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for May is reported at -4, which is better than the expected -11 but significantly improved from the previous value of -26.4 [1] Summary by Category Economic Indicators - The current reading of -4 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity, but the improvement from the prior month's -26.4 suggests a potential stabilization in the sector [1] - The index's movement from a more negative value to a less negative one may signal a shift in economic conditions, warranting close monitoring [1]