Core Viewpoint - The tightening conditions in the money market are expected to persist until November, pressuring the Federal Reserve to take action to replenish liquidity before halting balance sheet reduction next month [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The overnight secured financing rate (SOFR) surged by 18 basis points last Friday, marking the largest single-day volatility since the Fed's rate hike cycle began in March 2020 [1] - Despite a decrease in SOFR on Monday after month-end pressures eased, it remains above the Fed's key policy benchmark rates, including the federal funds rate [1] - Other short-term rates in the overnight repurchase market continue to trade above the Fed's managed rates [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced it will stop reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities by December, ending a three-year quantitative tightening effort due to increasing financing pressures [1] - The Fed's internal divisions are evident, as some officials advocate for maintaining a minimal balance sheet while others suggest increasing reserves to keep pace with the banking system and economic growth [5] - Recent data shows bank reserves have fallen to $2.8 trillion, the lowest level since September 2020, indicating a potential need for the Fed to act [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The spread between SOFR and the interest on reserves balance (IORB) reached 32 basis points last Friday, the largest since 2020, indicating significant market pressure [6] - Analysts suggest that the Fed may need to take more aggressive actions, such as purchasing Treasury securities, to alleviate market tensions similar to the actions taken in 2019 [9] - If financing market pressures persist, the possibility of temporary open market operations by the Fed cannot be ruled out [9]

黑色建材日报 2025-11-05 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3044 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 35 元/吨（-1.13%）。当日注册仓单 121242 吨, 环比减少 1798 吨。主力合约持仓量为 196.6544 万手，环比增加 47527 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3190 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3265 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 30 元/吨（-0.91%）。 当日注册仓单 100301 吨, 环比增 加 1764 吨。主力合约持仓量为 139.613 万手，环比减少 26705 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 30 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 ...