Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market declined significantly yesterday, with weakening prices of finished steel products. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to concerns about crude oil supply, which has a certain boosting effect on the overall commodity valuation. The fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations, and in the short term, inventory digestion and demand verification are the core contradictions. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak state among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term [9][16]. Summary by Directory Steel Products 1. Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3074 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.228%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 9328 tons, with no change from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.8819 million lots, a decrease of 21,925 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3120 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day (0%). The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 432,798 tons, an increase of 4410 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.4519 million lots, a decrease of 7712 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3240 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [2]. 2. Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production is basically the same as before the holiday, and the apparent demand has recovered rapidly after the holiday, but the inventory is still in a relatively high range in the past five years. The key is to focus on the inventory reduction rhythm and sustainability. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the production and sales recovery rhythm not fully restored, and the inventory accumulation speed is relatively fast, but it is still within a controllable range. Overall, the current fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations, and in the short term, it is mainly about inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern [3]. Iron Ore 1. Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 753.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00), and the open interest changed by - 9866 lots to 532,900 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 945,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 754 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.57 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.82% [5]. 2. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, overseas ore shipments fluctuate slightly at a high level. The shipments from Australia decreased, while those from Brazil continued to increase, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The near - term arrivals continued to decline. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production increased to 2.3328 million tons. Before the Spring Festival, some blast furnaces resumed production as planned, and most of the blast furnace overhauls started in late February. The profitability of steel mills increased slightly. During the important meeting, pig iron production is expected to be briefly affected. In terms of inventory, port inventories started to accumulate again, and the inventories of steel mills decreased significantly during the holiday, falling to a low level. Overall, after the end of the weather - related impact, overseas supply will recover, and high inventories will suppress price increases. Although the demand for pig iron production has recovered well, prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in March [6]. Ferroalloys 1. Market Quotes - On March 3, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon (SM605) continued to rebound, closing up 0.59% at 6118 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 ferromanganese silicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 78 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed up 0.38% at 5786 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 264 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Strategy Views - Last week, the rise of ferroalloys was mainly driven by market speculation due to rumors of rising power costs in South Africa and the imposition of ecological export tariffs on manganese ore (the ecological export tariff rumor was later refuted), as well as market expectations and speculation related to energy consumption monitoring, energy - consumption dual control, and "anti - involution" rumors around the "Two Sessions" under the background of the central economic work conference in December last year re - emphasizing "dual carbon". - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak state among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term. - In terms of the fundamentals of the varieties themselves, the supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese silicon is still not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventories, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors have mostly been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, with some improvement due to factory overhauls and production conversions. The key factors affecting the market of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the future are the direction of the black sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push from manganese ore for ferromanganese silicon and the supply contraction (or contraction expectations) due to losses or "dual carbon" policies for ferrosilicon. Attention should be paid to possible restrictions on manganese ore exports from South Africa and Gabon and the impact of "dual carbon" policies on ferroalloy supply [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke 1. Market Quotes - On March 3, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) continued to rebound after hitting the bottom, closing up 3.02% at 1127.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1522.5 yuan/ton, with a basis of 204.5 yuan/ton; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, with a basis of 126 yuan/ton; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1197 yuan/ton, with a basis of 45 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 2.54% at 1694.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42.5 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Strategy Views - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. After the pre - holiday restocking of downstream steel mills and coking plants ended, the downstream will enter the active de - stocking stage from after the holiday until mid - April, which restricts consumption. At the same time, coal mines gradually resume production after the holiday, and coal production usually reaches its peak in March. For coke, the downstream also enters the active de - stocking stage, and the weakening price of coking coal reduces the support at the cost end. In addition, the market is still worried about the terminal demand for steel products and has low expectations for the "Two Sessions" policies, which together led to the weak performance of coking coal prices in the first week after the holiday. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak state among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the total inventory of coking coal has decreased, but the downstream steel mills and coking plants are actively de - stocking, while the inventory of upstream mines is increasing, which will restrict the demand for coking coal and coke in the short term until the downstream restocks again in mid - to - late April. On the other hand, coal mines are gradually resuming production after the holiday, increasing the supply pressure. It was previously believed that the short - term upward momentum of coking coal and coke prices was weak, and there was a risk of a phased decline in coking coal prices from March to May. Currently, this view is being gradually verified. Although there is a short - term risk of a phased decline in coking coal prices, it is still expected that coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October when factors such as the safety production month and the peak consumption season overlap [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8205 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.44% (- 120). The weighted open interest increased by 18,930 lots to 461,419 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 945 yuan/ton; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 595 yuan/ton [18]. - Strategy Views: The new energy sector declined yesterday, and industrial silicon increased in open interest and decreased in price. The price is oscillating weakly. After the holiday, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang increased, and the weekly output increased. According to the previous plan, large factories in Xinjiang will resume production in March, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Currently, the production contraction elasticity in the southwest region is significantly smaller than the expansion elasticity, and the resumption of production is slow, with limited short - term increments. In terms of demand, the polysilicon production schedule in March is higher than that in February, and some bases in the northwest plan to resume production or conduct rotation overhauls. The production of organic silicon has increased. Overall, although the demand side is expected to improve marginally, the supply side also has a slight increase expectation in March. Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and the price will oscillate weakly. Attention should also be paid to the external impact of coal and coke trends on industrial silicon. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories in the northwest and changes in downstream demand [19]. 2. Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 43,700 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.74% (- 1230). The weighted open interest decreased by 2349 lots to 62,924 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 51.9 yuan/kg, all unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 8200 yuan/ton [20]. - Strategy Views: In terms of supply and demand, some bases in the northwest will resume production or conduct rotation overhauls in March, and the polysilicon production schedule is expected to increase. The inventory of silicon material factories is still at a high level, and the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The prices of battery cells and components have increased due to pre - holiday policies and cost - push, but the silicon wafer sector is still in a state of low prices and high inventory, and the feedback to the silicon material sector is not good. The spot market for silicon materials was quiet after the holiday, with prices slightly loosening and mostly in a wait - and - see state. In terms of policy expectations, there are expectations of "anti - involution", and the anti - monopoly red line is being strengthened in a legalized manner. The open interest and liquidity of the polysilicon futures are still at a relatively low level since listing. The current main contract price has fallen below 45 yuan/kg, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure. Attention should also be paid to whether there are new "anti - involution" - related statements in the important meeting [21][22]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - Market Quotes: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1054 yuan/ton, up 1.05% (+ 11). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1050 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 26, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 76.008 million cases, an increase of 20.656 million cases (+ 37.32%) from the previous week. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,920 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 30,693 lots [24]. - Strategy Views: There are rumors that a total of 4 glass production lines with a capacity of 2800 tons will be shut down for cold repair this month, and the market rebounded slightly, with the open interest decreasing and the price rising. In terms of demand, downstream processing plants will officially resume work after the Lantern Festival, and the demand release is slow. Traders are mostly in a wait - and - see state. Affected by the blocked shipment of original glass enterprises during the Spring Festival, the industry inventory has increased significantly. After the holiday, the total inventory of sample enterprises increased by 14.71 million weight cases compared with that before the holiday, and the de - stocking pressure is prominent. Although manufacturers generally raised prices during the "good start" window, in the context of weak demand and high inventory, the price increase is difficult. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak and oscillating pattern in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 1015 - 1100 yuan/ton [25]. 2. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1218 yuan/ton, up 2.53% (+ 30). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day. On February 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 306,400 tons (+ 37.32%) from the previous week, including 895,900 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 139,500 tons, and 998,500 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 166,900 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 12,825 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 4968 lots [26]. - Strategy Views: There are rumors that a large - scale enterprise plans to overhaul its soda ash production line, and the expectation of supply reduction has increased. In the spot market, the wait - and - see sentiment is still strong. The downstream of light soda ash has not fully resumed production, and the downstream of heavy soda ash mainly purchases on demand, with low overall purchasing enthusiasm. From the demand side, the main consumption industries such as glass and detergents are still in the transition stage of resuming production, and the actual procurement release is slow. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow - range oscillating pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1240 yuan/ton [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the black - series commodities still oscillated at the bottom. The actual terminal demand for steel remains weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy window period. Future attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - With the end of the year - end shipping rush by mines, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline. The daily average pig iron output has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. However, the short - term high - volatility risk caused by sentiment leaders such as silver and lithium carbonate should be guarded against. The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there are new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [20][23]. - The glass price has been boosted by the reduction in melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash supply is under pressure, the demand is weak, and the market remains weak [26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.667%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1212 tons to 54421 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 11840 lots to 172.67 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3311 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.516%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 112237 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 10408 lots to 142.75 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black - series commodities are sensitive to news changes, and future attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil de - stocking, "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The iron ore main contract (I2605) closed at 822.50 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (8.00 yuan). The positions increased by 14950 lots to 65.48 million lots. The weighted positions were 98.37 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 829 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.09 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [5]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline, with a large drop in Brazilian shipments. The shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - term arrivals continued to increase. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast furnace utilization rate increased, and the steel mill profitability decreased slightly. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, higher than the same period in previous years. The steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level, with a certain restocking demand. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) closed up 0.44% at 5930 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 1.17% at 5698 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 152 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still unfavorable, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market trends are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 12, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed up 3.55% at 1238.0 yuan/ton. The coke main contract (J2605) closed up 1.26% at 1770.0 yuan/ton [13]. Strategy Views - The recent strength of coking coal was driven by the positive commodity market sentiment and the news of capacity reduction in Yulin. The commodity bullish sentiment may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2605) closed at 8755 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (40 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 4994 lots to 374981 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 95 yuan/ton [19]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2605) closed at 49995 yuan/ton, down 2.54% (1305 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 6218 lots to 91068 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material was unchanged, with a basis of 5005 yuan/ton [21]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable. The supply improvement was limited, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - Polysilicon: The market was affected by anti - monopoly concerns and production reduction rumors. The price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22][23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.09% (1 yuan). The inventory decreased by 134.80 million boxes to 5551.8 million boxes. The positions of the top 20 long - holders decreased by 1305 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 7357 lots [25]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.90% (11 yuan). The inventory increased by 16.44 tons to 157.27 tons. The positions of the top 20 long - holders increased by 2976 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 17392 lots [27]. Strategy Views - Glass: The melting volume decreased, and the fuel cost increased, boosting the price. However, the high inventory restricted the upward space. Future attention should be paid to inventory digestion and actual transactions [26]. - Soda ash: The supply was stable, and the new production capacity was put into operation. The demand from photovoltaic and float glass decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market remained weak [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a weak and fluctuating trend. Although the demand for steel products is currently in the off - season, with the implementation of the Fed's easing policy and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the demand for steel products may gradually recover in the future [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do long may have a higher cost - performance ratio than shorting. The macro factors are more important for price determination than the weak fundamentals [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. It is likely to follow the overall commodity environment and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally due to production reduction, but the short - term inventory reduction is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the progress of platform companies [16]. - For glass, the market has expectations for supply structure improvement, but the current fundamentals are still weak, and the sustainability of the market needs to be observed [19]. - For soda ash, the industry is operating at a high rate, the losses of enterprises are expanding, and the demand is mainly for rigid restocking. The price is expected to continue the weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel 行情资讯 - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3044 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-1.13%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1798 tons to 121,242 tons, and the open interest increased by 47,527 lots to 1,966,544 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3265 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1764 tons to 100,301 tons, and the open interest decreased by 26,705 lots to 1,396,130 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3290 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] 策略观点 - The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils is in different situations. Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and inventory is continuously decreasing. The demand for hot - rolled coils is rising, but the output is still high, and the inventory level is also high. The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2] Iron Ore 行情资讯 - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 775.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.89% (-7.00). The open interest increased by 12,824 lots to 547,800 lots, and the weighted open interest was 945,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.73 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [4] 策略观点 - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume in the latest period decreased month - on - month but was still at a high level in the same period. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls was much larger than that of restarts, and the steel mill profitability rate reached a new low this year. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and there is a risk of a phased decline in ore prices [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon 行情资讯 - On November 4, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.69% at 5754 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a converted price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 136 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed down 0.29% at 5510 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures price [7][8] 策略观点 - The two major macro - events at the end of October did not provide a driving force for the market to increase the valuation of commodities. The black sector's rebound has undergone a phased adjustment. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline this week, and the pig iron output continued to decline. However, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was better than expected and drove the inventory to continue to decrease. The report is not pessimistic about the future of the black sector and believes that looking for callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's market [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 行情资讯 - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 8885 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.79% (-255). The weighted contract open interest increased by 11,685 lots to 411,459 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 415 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 15 yuan/ton after conversion [12] - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 53715 yuan/ton, with a change of -4.19% (-2350). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 20,330 lots to 237,756 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type recycled material was 52.2 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was -1515 yuan/ton [15] 策略观点 - Industrial silicon: The supply pressure persists. Although the production in the southwest region is decreasing due to the dry season, the output in the northwest region is rising, and the weekly output has not yet reached its peak. The demand support is weakening. The price is likely to follow the overall commodity environment and is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to the option game near the expiration [13][14] - Polysilicon: Some production capacity will be overhauled, and the production schedule in November will drop to 120,000 tons. The downstream silicon wafer operating rate is expected to decline slightly. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is expected to be limited. The market has strong expectations and games for the results of industry meetings. Pay attention to the progress of platform companies [16] Glass and Soda Ash 行情资讯 - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1105 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.10% (+12). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million boxes, down 823,000 boxes (-1.24%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 29,982 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 85,117 lots [18] - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1189 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.08% (-13). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1149 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, down 0.01 million tons (-1.24%), including 886,400 tons of heavy soda ash inventory, down 48,100 tons, and 815,600 tons of light soda ash inventory, up 48,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 21,494 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 37,068 lots [20] 策略观点 - Glass: Driven by the cold - repair plan of production lines in Shahe and the "anti - involution" policy, the market's expectation of supply structure improvement has increased, and the capital sentiment has become more active. However, the current fundamentals are still weak, restricting the upward space of prices. The short - term impact of macro policies and production reduction events will continue, but the sustainability of the market needs to be observed based on spot transactions and inventory reduction [19] - Soda ash: The industry operating rate remains high, the losses of enterprises continue to expand, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid restocking, resulting in weak inventory reduction. Some manufacturers adjust prices flexibly to promote sales. Without obvious positive driving factors, the price is expected to continue the weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly within the range. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and port inventories have accumulated rapidly. Some domestic enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [2] Urea - The urea futures market is oscillating strongly. Supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Upstream inventories are shifting to downstream and ports. The market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with the possible release of a new export quota [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures closed down slightly, showing a weak trend. For polyethylene, the reduction of device maintenance increases pressure, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, high - level device maintenance provides some support, but weak demand still suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil is oscillating. The spot price of pure benzene in East China has slightly declined, while the forward price has risen slightly. There is still supply pressure, with a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - to - late third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread and short at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures are weakly sorted. The开工 load is at a high level, and port inventories are accumulating. Market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is mainly based on digesting existing raw materials, and spot trading is poor [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate narrowly. PX supply - demand has improved, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has an upward repair drive due to low processing margins. For ethylene glycol, short - term long - position allocation is recommended if large domestic devices implement maintenance. Short fiber shows some demand resilience and can be treated bullishly, while bottle chip orders are weakening [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is running weakly. New device production increases supply, and downstream demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, with poor high - price sales and general non - aluminum downstream demand [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass fluctuates narrowly. Industry profits have slightly increased, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is oscillating weakly, with inventory accumulation and high - level production. The photovoltaic industry's planned production cuts may affect the market [10]