iCapital在一份展望报告中称，预计2026年美国10年期国债收益率将在4.0%-4.5%的区间内交易，可能在 下半年触及上限。报告称："尽管我们仍认为10年期美国国债收益率在该区间内波动，至少在2026年伊 始，但如果赤字前景恶化，可能会波动至4.5%。"报告称，此举可能给风险资产和资本市场活动带来压 力。（格隆汇） ...

Group 1 - The CEO of Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, believes that merger and acquisition (M&A) and IPO activities will find a comfortable level despite a slowdown in investment banking activities due to uncertainty [1][2] - Solomon warns that the current level of policy certainty is detrimental to both public and private markets, leading to increased cost management and potential layoffs among corporate executives [1] - Despite a weak start in Q2 and many IPOs being paused, Solomon remains hopeful for a rebound in M&A activity later this year or next year, noting an increase in private equity transactions and M&A deals over $500 million in Q1 [1] Group 2 - Solomon states that capital market activity in Q1 has increased year-over-year, although overall transaction activity remains below expectations [2] - The trading division of Goldman Sachs has benefited from uncertainty in the public markets, achieving record quarterly performance in the first three months of the year [2] - Solomon expresses optimism regarding potential relaxation of bank regulations from the U.S. Treasury and highlights improvements in growth prospects in Europe due to a major stimulus plan in Germany [2]