Historical Review of Size and Style Rotation - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed due to significant economic stimulus and abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to funding[6] - Between 2011 and 2013, large-cap stocks gained favor as economic growth pressures increased, highlighting their defensive attributes[8] - The period from 2013 to 2015 saw a resurgence of small-cap stocks driven by the rise of new industries and increased M&A activity, with leverage funds entering the market[9] - From 2016 to 2021, large-cap stocks dominated as supply-side reforms improved profitability for leading companies, while M&A activity cooled[10] - In the 2021 to 2023 period, small-cap stocks regained strength due to changes in funding structure and the rise of new industries like AI[12] Growth vs. Value Style Rotation - From 2011 to 2014, value stocks outperformed as the economy shifted from stimulus-driven growth to self-sustained growth, with GDP growth declining[15] - In 2015, growth stocks saw a rebound due to the rise of the internet and new industries, despite ongoing economic pressures[19] - The period from July 2016 to October 2018 favored value stocks as traditional industries improved amid tightening liquidity[21] - From November 2018 to July 2021, growth stocks outperformed due to the rise of new industries and favorable liquidity conditions[23] - From August 2021 to August 2024, value stocks are expected to dominate due to tightening global liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties[25] Key Indicators and Future Outlook - The historical analysis indicates that size and style rotations are influenced by fundamental factors, liquidity, valuation, and policy[27] - The correct prediction rate for small-cap outperformance since 2005 is 69%, while for growth vs. value since 2011 is 77%[2] - In the first half of 2025, small-cap stocks outperformed with a 7.54% increase in the CSI 1000 index compared to a 1.37% increase in the CSI 300 index[2] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potential shift towards large-cap stocks due to institutional investor preferences and external uncertainties[2]

Vincenzo Vedda表示预期，第二季企业盈利仍有下调空间，但科技与金融类公司或可幸免。在此背景 下，DWS继续建议投资者保持高度多元化的投资组合。欧元区投资者亦应关注美元走势，因为美元贬 值已几乎完全抵销美股的正面回报，换算成欧元后的收益更接近零。 美国总统特朗普不断向美联储施压，要求减息。然而，DWS预期美联储仍将依据实际数据审慎决策。 相比之下，欧洲央行已率先踏出减息第一步，若欧元维持强势，将进一步为欧洲央行提供减息空间。 DWS全球首席投资总监Vincenzo Vedda表示，新兴市场股票今年以来表现出色，MSCI新兴市场指数累 计上升约15%。虽然中国股市自2025年初以来已大幅上涨，但仍是DWS在亚洲市场中的首选之一。相 较之下，DWS对印度股市的前景较为审慎，尽管该市场过往屡创佳绩，但目前估值已属偏高。 自2025年初以来，标普500指数已重拾升势，目前已接近该行预测的2026年6月目标水平。经过一轮强劲 的短暂升势后，DWS现时认为市场回调风险升高，原因之一是股市在夏季月份通常呈现平稳甚至下跌 的走势。 欧洲股市仍是DWS的首选之一。长远来看，在财政支持措施与国际资金回流的推动下，欧洲市 ...

10年期美国国债收益率升至4.4950%，为一个月高点。 美国10年国债收益率 ...