近期全球大宗商品市场最耀眼的明星，非铜莫属，伦铜突破11700美元/吨的历史新高。 沪铜主力合约站稳9.2万元/吨上方，金属铜俨然成为资本追逐的硬通货新贵。 看似偶然的价格飙升，背后实则是多重因素交织的必然结果，当美国的战略囤货遇上国内的产能收缩，这场资源领域的博弈正在重塑全球铜市格局，而这仅 仅是故事的开始？ 12月以来，铜价开启加速上涨模式，伦铜在突破1万美元关键心理关口后，犹如脱缰野马般直冲11700美元/吨，这种强劲势头远超市场预期。 国内市场同样不甘示弱，沪铜主力合约收盘上涨1.54%至92970元/吨，上海有色网现铜价格同步跟涨至92300元/吨。 沪粤两地现货市场均维持升水状态，与2024年二季度涨势中现货跟进乏力的情况形成鲜明对比。 反而因供应端的紧张预期，使得现货升水得以维持，这种期货引领、现货跟涨的格局，预示着铜价上涨并非短期炒作，而是有其深层的基本面逻辑支撑。 资金的持续追捧是铜价飙升的直接推手，市场对铜价中长期走势的乐观情绪，促使资金不断做多布局。 从市场表现来看，当前沪铜呈现出减仓回调、增仓冲涨的典型特征，中长线看涨氛围极为浓烈。 值得注意的是，铜价的上涨并非孤立现象，黄金、白银等贵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly focusing on the U.S. demand for China to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources for national security and technological advancement [1][15][39]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Strategy - Trump's assertion that "tariffs equal national security" reflects a desperate political maneuver rather than a solid strategy, indicating a loss of confidence in his administration's trade policies [3][5]. - The trade war has not yielded the expected benefits for the U.S., with rising costs for American businesses and dissatisfaction among allies, leading to a decline in Trump's domestic support [6][8]. - The focus on rare earths as a singular demand illustrates a shift from broader trade negotiations to a more desperate, point-specific strategy, revealing the diminishing options available to the U.S. [24][32]. Group 2: Importance of Rare Earths - China controls over 80% of global rare earth production, while the U.S. relies on imports for 90% of its rare earth needs, making this a critical issue for U.S. military and technological sectors [15][21]. - The U.S. has faced significant delays in developing domestic rare earth processing capabilities, with projects pushed back to 2026, underscoring the challenges in establishing alternative supply chains [15][17]. - The competition for rare earths is not merely an economic issue but a matter of national security, as these resources are essential for modern technology and military applications [15][33]. Group 3: China's Position and Strategy - China's restrictions on rare earth exports are part of a broader strategy to manage its resources sustainably and assert its position in global trade, rather than a targeted response to U.S. demands [17][19]. - The Chinese government has maintained a calm and resolute stance in negotiations, indicating a strong position in the face of U.S. pressure [19][39]. - The ongoing struggle over rare earths reflects a larger contest for defining future technological and industrial standards, with China increasingly positioning itself as a rule-maker rather than a rule-taker [35][39].