15%中国收入变保护费 果然特朗普是交易的天才，既然不敢对中国收税，而且收不到，那不如对美国企业收税。真可谓是一箭三雕，不仅美国企业卖了商品，美国还获得了税 收，只能说，特朗普赢麻了。 美国霸权要变现了？15%中国收入变保护费，专家：下一步军工 只有你想不到的，没有特朗普不敢做的。就在所有人都以为，特朗普只敢拿关税战，美国的霸权来变现，通过各种极限施压，在金融市场赚钱的时候，没 想到，当下特朗普更是来了大手笔，那就是既然堵不住那就疏吧。 而且更是直接表示，英伟达和AMD可以对中国出口相关的芯片，这也就是说，美国的审批权放开了，但是却只开了一个口子。而特朗普的要求竟然不是 不许卖，而是自己必须分成，更是要拿到对华销售收入的15%，特朗普这是要将美国的安全变现了吗？下一步，特朗普将把霸权也变现吗？ 近日，就在所有人都盯着美国和中国达成的共识，将再次延长中美关税豁免期限的时候，没想到一个更大的新闻让美国此次冲上热搜。那就是之前美国一 直通过所谓的安全借口，对中国进行科技封锁和打压。 但是没想到，到特朗普手里，却逐渐开始放开了。当然并没有完全放开，只是相比较以前开放的大门已经从收缩转变为放开，这影响是巨大的。 这在一 ...

特朗普在近期的言论再次引发争议，月初他还表示有意与中国达成一致，避免加征关税。然而，时隔不到半个月，他却突然宣布将考虑对中国加征关税，这 种反复无常的做法让人难以捉摸。 美国副总统万斯在8月10日公开表示，美国正考虑对中国加征新一轮关税，理由是中国继续购买俄罗斯的石油，这种行为类似于之前美国对印度的制裁。当 时，因印度坚持从俄罗斯进口石油，美国直接对其加征了50%的关税。尽管印度表示将减少对俄石油的购买，美国的态度随之发生了180度转变。 尤其是当美国解除了对华为的芯片限制之后，暴露出美国芯片技术中的"追踪定位"和"远程关闭"等功能。中国的媒体揭露这些细节时，美国的虚伪形象彻底 崩塌。美国长期以来标榜的"技术中立"立场在这次风波中彻底破产，全球信任危机进一步扩大。 更严重的是，美国的盟友们开始感到恐慌。虽然这些国家在总体实力上无法与美国匹敌，但在某些技术领域，他们的能力却远超美国。例如，日本在精密机 床、德国和法国在量子技术方面、意大利在干细胞治疗上的优势。这些国家担心，如果美国开始在芯片中插手他们的技术，自己的"看家本领"可能会被盗 取。 特朗普上任以来，关税政策始终如同过山车一样变幻莫测，让人根本无法预测 ...

Group 1 - The current US-China confrontation is likened to an unexpected encounter battle, where both sides are unprepared and the initial situation is chaotic [1] - The US, despite its intentions to contain China, is not fully prepared for the confrontation due to internal issues such as hollowed-out industries and high debt [2][4] - China has been focused on peaceful development and gradually improving its industrial chain, benefiting from its relationship with the US in the past [2][4] Group 2 - The trade war initiated by the US is just the beginning, as the global market remains resilient and dependent on Chinese goods [6] - The US's attempts to decouple from China have proven ineffective, with ongoing trade between the two nations [6] - The technology war, particularly against companies like Huawei, has inadvertently spurred China's technological independence and innovation [6][7] Group 3 - The US's financial dominance is being challenged as its frequent use of sanctions and asset seizures raises global concerns about the safety of holding wealth in US dollars [9] - The rise of alternative payment systems, such as the digital yuan and cross-border payment systems, indicates a shift towards de-dollarization [9][10] - The ongoing battles in trade, technology, and finance represent a broader restructuring of global economic rules rather than isolated conflicts [10] Group 4 - The current standoff indicates that the US's strategies have not succeeded in undermining China, which has developed strong domestic markets and financial defenses [11] - The confrontation has evolved into a protracted struggle, emphasizing the importance of internal capabilities for both nations [13]

Group 1 - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced plans to apply for permission to resume sales of the H20 GPU chip to the Chinese market, with the U.S. government expected to approve the related licenses soon [2] - The H20 chip, developed based on the older Hopper architecture, is priced between $10,000 and $12,000 and is designed to comply with U.S. chip export control requirements [2] - Despite its reduced performance compared to the H100 chip, the H20 chip remains popular in China, with major companies like ByteDance and Tencent ordering approximately 230,000 units [2] Group 2 - Reports indicate that Nvidia is developing a new AI chip based on the latest Blackwell architecture for the Chinese market, expected to be priced between $6,500 and $8,000 [3] - The market share of Nvidia in China's AI accelerator card market exceeded 85% in 2022, but it is projected that domestic chips will capture one-third of the market share by 2024 [3] - The proportion of imported chips in China's AI server market is expected to decline from approximately 63% in 2024 to about 42% in 2025, with local suppliers gaining ground due to government support [3] Group 3 - Nvidia announced the launch of a new fully compatible RTX PRO graphics card, aimed at digital twin AI applications in smart factories and logistics [4] - Recent easing of U.S.-China tech tensions has led to major chip design software companies resuming services to China, following the U.S. government's cancellation of export restrictions [4] - The U.S. and China are working to implement agreements reached during high-level economic talks, with both sides taking steps to facilitate trade [4] Group 4 - The State Administration for Market Regulation in China approved Synopsys' acquisition of Ansys with conditions that ensure fair treatment of Chinese customers and continuation of existing contracts [5]

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The core point of the recent US-China trade talks is the establishment of a "framework of measures" aimed at conditional cooperation, moving from sanctions to collaboration [1][2] - The trade discussions in London signify a shift in the underlying logic of US-China economic competition from traditional tariff wars to more complex issues involving supply chain and technology battles [1][2] - Trump's tariff war against China does not represent a broad consensus in the US, as it lacks political support and economic conditions [2][5] Group 2: Tariff Policies and Market Reactions - Trump's tariffs have faced significant opposition from various sectors, including consumers and financial elites, leading to a decline in market confidence [5][9] - The average tariff rate in the US has reached 18.8%, the highest since the 1930s, but the market currently believes it can absorb these costs without significant inflation [7][8] - The capital market's reaction to Trump's tariffs has been a major constraint on his policies, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a 19% drop from its peak [5][9] Group 3: Technology Export Controls - The true consensus in US policy towards China lies in technology export controls, which have become the main focus of US-China competition [11][12] - The Biden administration has maintained Trump's tariffs while shifting the focus to technology export restrictions, indicating a strategic decoupling in sensitive areas [11][12] - The US aims to limit China's development in strategic industries through various measures, including cutting off resources and technology [12][13] Group 4: China's Strategic Responses - In response to US technology export controls, China has implemented targeted measures, particularly in the rare earth sector, significantly reducing exports to the US [16][17] - China's dominance in the rare earth market, accounting for 70% of global production, gives it a strategic advantage in the ongoing trade conflict [16][17] - The recent framework agreement reflects a temporary arrangement where both countries are engaging in a supply chain balancing act, indicating a new era of economic competition [21][23] Group 5: Future Implications and Strategic Opportunities - The current geopolitical landscape presents China with a strategic opportunity to enhance its technological capabilities and self-sufficiency in critical areas [25][26] - The unpredictability of Trump's policies may create openings for China to negotiate and adjust its strategies effectively [24][25] - China's focus on technological innovation and resource management will be crucial in navigating the ongoing US-China competition [26]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing tensions between the US and China, highlighting trade conflicts, technological competition, and geopolitical confrontations, particularly regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea [1][3][7] - The US initiated a trade war in 2018, imposing tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing issues like intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices [3][5] - China retaliated with equivalent tariffs, leading to an escalation of trade disputes, although a temporary relief was achieved with the signing of the Phase One trade agreement in January 2020 [5][7] Group 2 - The article emphasizes China's advancements in technology, particularly in 5G and artificial intelligence, where it has established a leading position, making it difficult for the US to contain its growth [7][11] - China's economic strength is highlighted, with a GDP of $17.5 trillion in 2023, accounting for 18.5% of the global economy, and a growth rate that could lead to surpassing the US by 2030 [9][10] - The manufacturing sector is dominated by China, which accounts for 30% of global manufacturing output, significantly outpacing the US [10][12] Group 3 - In the military domain, China is rapidly advancing, with plans to have three aircraft carriers and advanced missile technology by 2025, increasing its presence in the Asia-Pacific region [12][18] - The article notes China's critical role in global supply chains, controlling 92% of rare earth refining capabilities, which poses challenges for the US in achieving self-sufficiency [12][18] - The financial landscape is shifting, with the international use of the renminbi expanding, indicating a decline in the dominance of the US dollar [13][16] Group 4 - The article concludes that the future of US-China relations will remain complex, with China continuing to rise and the US potentially facing relative decline, although there are areas for cooperation [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing complexities in US-China relations have escalated, particularly highlighted by recent events that reflect a shift from negotiation to a more confrontational stance in trade discussions [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo acknowledged fears among US officials regarding the impact of tariffs on American businesses during the trade war, indicating a significant shift in the administration's stance [1]. - Following high-level talks in Geneva, the US reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China lowered tariffs from 125% to 10%, demonstrating a mutual concession despite ongoing inflationary pressures in the US [1][5]. - The US has faced rapid price increases, leading to public dissatisfaction with tariff policies, which has further complicated the trade landscape [1]. Group 2: Diplomatic Communications - Recent communications between US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu emphasized the importance of maintaining dialogue, reflecting a strategic necessity amid rising tensions [3]. - China's firm stance against US expectations for a quick resolution indicates a shift towards a more competitive and confrontational approach in trade negotiations [3][5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The US's fluctuating strategy under the Trump administration, including threats of increased tariffs and restrictions on Chinese technology, highlights the ongoing struggle for dominance in the global market [5][7]. - Analysts suggest that the US's attempts to pressure China through tariffs and technology restrictions are increasingly challenged by China's robust industrial capabilities and large domestic market [5][7]. - The current state of US-China relations may lead to a phase of "competitive coexistence," where structural conflicts persist but the intensity of confrontations could be managed [7].

这种"双轨并行"策略，折射出中国对美外交的成熟与克制。一方面，通过亚洲协会等智库平台，中国得以绕过特朗普政府的政治操弄，直接向美国工商界、 战略界传递合作意愿；另一方面，对美方"芯片封锁""对等关税"等单边行为，中国坚持"以牙还牙"。 更值得玩味的是，这场密谈恰逢民主党联邦参议员博卡斯率团访华。民主党正试图通过"务实派"纽森等地方官员，对冲特朗普的极端政策。这种党派博弈， 无形中为中国提供了战略缓冲空间。 2025年的中美关系，正经历一场前所未有的"三重变奏"。特朗普在白宫高调喊话访华，北京却以静制动；王毅外长与美国民间智库代表密谈，释放微妙信 号；而美国国内12个州联合起诉联邦政府，直指关税政策违法。 美国总统特朗普自2025年5月中旬结束中东访问后，多次通过媒体释放访华信号，称愿"随时飞往北京"讨论经贸和外交议题。 截至5月26日，中方尚未正式回应其请求，反而通过外交渠道强调：任何高层对话需遵循平等互尊原则，且需通过正式外交流程铺路。就在同一天，白宫却 向全球150个贸易伙伴发出关税威胁信函，中国赫然在列。这种"左手橄榄枝，右手大棒"的矛盾操作，暴露了特朗普政府对华政策的底层逻辑：以关税施压 为筹码，逼迫 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase of policy support and uncertainty, leading to a rebalancing situation [1] - The AH premium index has dropped to a near four-year low, with southbound capital becoming cautious and even taking profits, indicating a potential market consolidation phase due to technical overbought pressure [1] - The internal fundamentals show a "weak recovery + differentiation" characteristic, with the manufacturing PMI returning to contraction, and both resident and corporate credit demand remaining sluggish [1] Group 2 - The external environment reflects a conflict between "tactical easing" and "strategic encirclement," with the US-China tariff pause boosting risk appetite, but ongoing technology wars and export restrictions creating pressure in critical sectors [1] - Policy measures such as interest rate cuts and consumption loans are aimed at driving domestic demand recovery, particularly in service consumption and commodities [2] - The strategy suggested is to maintain a "defensive counterattack" approach, focusing on high-dividend defensive sectors and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support and events like the e-commerce "618" promotion [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the ongoing tensions between the US and China despite recent agreements to lower tariffs, with Trump taking actions that suggest a continuation of the trade and technology conflict [1][3][15] - Trump's threats to increase tariffs if no new agreement is reached within 90 days indicate a strategy to maintain a tough image domestically while acknowledging the economic pressures from China [3][7] - The US's renewed restrictions on Huawei's Ascend chips reflect a continuation of the technology war initiated during the Biden administration, aiming to curb China's advancements in AI and semiconductor industries [5][9] Group 2 - The US's prohibition on international loans to Chinese companies in Colombia signals a geopolitical maneuver to counter China's growing influence in Latin America, particularly following recent cooperation agreements between Colombia and China [5][11] - The article discusses the broader implications of these actions, suggesting that the US's attempts to isolate China may be met with resistance from Latin American countries that see tangible benefits from Chinese investments [11][15] - The shift in rhetoric from US Senator Rubio, from labeling China as an enemy to a challenge, indicates a potential reevaluation of the US's approach towards China, suggesting a need for balance rather than outright decoupling [11][15]