一夜之间，全球科技战的棋盘上落下一枚重子！中国商务部突然挥出稀土技术出口管制的利剑，这道寒光直接刺向美西方高科技产业的命门。白宫官员深夜 紧急开会，柏林工业界一片哗然，东京电子企业股价应声暴跌——这场没有硝烟的战争正在重新划定未来十年的技术疆界。 稀土从来不是普通的泥土。当智能手机震动、电动汽车加速、导弹精准命中目标时，正是这些看似不起眼的元素在暗中驱动着现代文明。十七种稀有金属编 织成数字时代的神经网络，而中国掌控着全球近九成稀土提炼技术的钥匙。过去二十年，西方享受着廉价稀土带来的科技繁荣，却故意忽视产业链背后的战 略风险。就像吸毒者明知毒品有害却难以戒除，欧美国家在稀土供应上早已形成深度依赖。 这次技术出口管制的精妙之处在于精准打击。不是简单禁止稀土矿石出口，而是直接锁死从开采到回收的整个技术生态链。钕铁硼永磁体的制造工艺、稀土 二次资源回收的专利技术、冶炼分离的生产线调试——这些藏在实验室和工厂深处的知识资产，现在都成了受保护的国家机密。想象一下，美国军工企业想 要生产新一代F-35战机的雷达系统，却找不到替代的钐钴磁体技术供应商；德国汽车巨头计划转型电动车，突然发现铈磁体制造工艺被卡住脖子。这种技术 ...

传奇投资人、亿万富翁瑞·达利欧近日指出，美国和英国这两个老牌大国的未来都不乐观，他对美英两国的发展轨迹都不看好，他还说"我 们正在步入非常非常黑暗的时期"。达利欧是全球最大的对冲基金桥水公司的创始人。通过他对500年来的历史的研究，他认为，我们目前 正处于一个80年的历史周期中，可能马上会迎来一个全球冲突和国内冲突全面加剧的历史阶段。 达利欧认为，有五大主要力量推动了历史 的循环：货币和债务力量、国内冲突、地缘政治冲突、自然行为以及人类的发明创造——尤其是科学技术的进步。他指出，美英两国都表 现出了一些症状，说明两国已经逼近了大国历史时期的一个危险阶段。 达利欧在现身"CEO日记"播客时表示："英国存在金融问题，英国 政府也存在债务问题。"但债务相对于收入增加时，就会挤压经济。这种金融压力与第二大力量有关，也就是激烈的国内冲突。由于社会存 在着巨大的贫富差距和机会差距，导致社会左右两派出现了深刻的分裂，从而导致人们对体制失去信任。达利欧认为，英国缺乏美国那样 的创新文化，也缺乏强大的资本市场，这进一步阻碍了英国的发展前景。 达利欧的看法可能有一些争议性。但不可否认的是，在过去20年 间，英国的生产力确实并没有 ...

文 | 果冉多 编辑 | 果冉多 声明：本文基于权威资料并结合个人观点撰写，文末附有来源及截图，请知悉。 特朗普并不是不知道这场贸易战赢不了，而是他输不起。关税战输了，芯片战也没奏效，如今他干脆把最后的赌注压在台湾身上。 9月27日，美国商务部长卢特尼克在接受采访时公开提出，要推动"台美芯片产能五五开"的计划，理由是台湾离中国大陆太近，存在"不可接受的战略风 险"。 但问题在于，这颗"地雷"不是埋在中国，而是埋在美国自己脚下。一旦爆炸，受伤的不只是中国，美国赖以维持的高科技神话也可能被击碎。 特朗普政府的错误，已经不只是战术问题，而是战略层面的误判。无论是34%、84%，还是125%的对等关税，美方一再加码，但中国并未屈服，反而在应对 中展现出更强的韧性。 中国的反制手段并不仅限于关税报复。在今年5月的日内瓦会谈上，中方借机与美方谈判，不仅迫使对方取消了91%的高关税，还争取到了24%的临时豁 免。这本该是缓和关系的机会，但特朗普并不甘心，于是转而盯上台湾芯片，试图从产业根基上掏空中国的软肋。 卢特尼克的"五五产能"提案，看似为供应链安全考虑，实际上是赤裸裸的地缘政治操作。他说台湾离中国太近、离美国太远，不利 ...

Group 1 - The G7 and EU are planning to set a price floor for rare earths and impose tariffs on Chinese exports to counter China's dominance in rare earth production [3][5] - Rare earths are crucial for industries such as electric vehicles and military applications, with China controlling approximately 70% of global supply [5][6] - The G7's reliance on China for rare earths and critical minerals poses a significant risk to their industrial sectors, including automotive and defense [5][6] Group 2 - China possesses a unique leverage in the trade war with the West due to its control over rare earth supplies, which are essential for various technologies [5][8] - The potential use of rare earth export restrictions could serve as a bargaining chip for China to negotiate the lifting of bans on semiconductor technology and other goods from the West [10] - The strategy of leveraging rare earths could lead to substantial long-term economic benefits for China, outweighing short-term revenue losses from export restrictions [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current strategic challenges faced by the United States, particularly in the context of two significant conflicts: the technology war with China and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war [1][12]. - It highlights the historical context of America's industrial dominance in the mid-20th century, where American workers enjoyed high wages and a comfortable standard of living [3]. - The article notes the decline of American manufacturing due to competition from countries like Japan and Germany, which offered lower labor costs and high-quality products [5][7]. Group 2 - The U.S. strategy of outsourcing labor-intensive industries while retaining high-value sectors like military and finance has led to temporary prosperity but underestimated China's potential [7][8]. - China's unique advantages, including a large population and effective institutional frameworks, have allowed it to upgrade its industries from low-end manufacturing to advanced sectors like electric vehicles and semiconductors [8][9]. - The semiconductor industry is identified as a critical area for the U.S., with efforts to limit China's advancements through legislation like the CHIPS Act, but China's progress in technology is outpacing U.S. expectations [9][13]. Group 3 - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of the technology war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both of which are straining U.S. strategic resources and impacting its international credibility [12][13]. - The ongoing war in Ukraine has resulted in significant military aid from the U.S., leading to increased national debt and economic challenges at home [12][13]. - The conclusion suggests that China can maintain its strategic focus and continue to develop without direct confrontation, allowing for a natural shift in global power dynamics as the U.S. faces increasing difficulties [14].

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's shift in strategy regarding technology exports to China, allowing companies like Nvidia and AMD to sell chips to China while requiring a 15% revenue share from these sales [2][6][8] - This move indicates a potential failure of the U.S. technology war against China, as it suggests a relaxation of previous restrictions and a shift towards monetizing U.S. technological dominance [4][6][8] - Trump's approach is characterized as a transactional strategy, where he leverages U.S. security concerns to extract financial benefits from American companies, effectively turning national security into a revenue-generating mechanism [6][14][16] Group 2 - The article highlights concerns that this new policy could undermine the competitive position of U.S. companies, as they may face higher costs that could be passed on to consumers, ultimately affecting their market dynamics [11][9] - There is a cautionary note regarding the potential risks of allowing Chinese access to U.S. technology, particularly the fear of embedded security vulnerabilities in exported chips [13][14] - The article suggests that this shift could lead to a broader opening of U.S. markets to China, potentially extending beyond technology to other sectors like military and aerospace, as long as the revenue-sharing model is maintained [8][9][16]

Group 1 - The recent statements by Trump regarding tariffs on China have created confusion, as he initially expressed a desire to reach an agreement but later considered imposing new tariffs [1][4] - The U.S. Vice President, Vance, indicated that the U.S. is contemplating new tariffs on China due to its continued purchase of Russian oil, similar to previous sanctions on India [4][8] - China is not as intimidated by U.S. threats as India was, and it has chosen to respond directly through a technology war rather than exhausting resources in a tariff battle [6][8] Group 2 - A Chinese media article accused U.S. tech companies of potentially embedding "backdoor" technologies in chips, which provoked a strong reaction from the U.S. tech sector, including a denial from Nvidia [9][10] - The article highlighted past U.S. government requests for tech companies to implant "backdoors," raising global concerns about U.S. technological leadership and integrity [9][10] - U.S. allies are increasingly anxious about the potential for U.S. interference in their technological advancements, fearing that their proprietary technologies could be compromised [11][12] Group 3 - The Chinese response has impacted the U.S. semiconductor industry, which holds 38% of global added value, with companies like Nvidia and Qualcomm accounting for 56% of profits [14] - The U.S. technology blockade against China is likely to accelerate China's push for domestic alternatives, which could severely affect revenues for U.S. semiconductor firms [14][16] - The recent developments have shifted the focus from a tariff war to a technology war, revealing U.S. hegemonic behavior in the global tech arena and potentially leading to long-term impacts on the U.S. tech market [16][17] Group 4 - On August 12, a compromise was reached with the signing of the Stockholm Trade Talks Joint Statement, which suspended the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs while maintaining 10% base tariffs [16][17] - Despite this, the U.S. continues to impose Section 301 tariffs and technology export controls on 136 Chinese entities, indicating a persistent strategy to hinder China's technological progress [16][17] - The situation presents both challenges and opportunities for China, particularly in advancing its domestic AI chip technology to overcome U.S. restrictions [17]

Core Points - The U.S. government has reached a special arrangement with Nvidia and AMD, requiring them to pay 15% of their chip sales revenue in China to the government in exchange for export licenses for specific chips like H20 and MI308 [1][2][3] - This arrangement is unprecedented in the U.S. and reflects a transactional approach where companies pay for export permissions, aligning with the Trump administration's pattern of conditional exemptions [3][4] Summary by Sections Arrangement Details - Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay 15% of their sales revenue from China to the U.S. government to obtain export licenses for their respective chips [2][3] - The U.S. Department of Commerce began issuing H20 export licenses shortly after a meeting between Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang and President Trump [3][4] Financial Implications - Analysts estimate that Nvidia could sell 1.5 million H20 chips in China by 2025, generating approximately $23 billion in revenue, leading to a payment of about $3.5 billion to the U.S. government [4][5] - The arrangement effectively turns export licenses into a revenue-generating tool for the U.S. government, which has raised concerns among experts about the implications for U.S. technological leadership [6][7] Background Context - The H20 chip is a downgraded version of Nvidia's AI chip, specifically designed for the Chinese market after previous export restrictions were imposed [4][5] - The timing of this agreement is sensitive, coinciding with ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, where China is pressuring for relaxed restrictions on high-bandwidth memory chips [6][7] Strategic Considerations - The arrangement merges trade and technology issues, which traditionally have been treated separately in U.S. policy [11][12] - Trump's administration views trade as a security issue, integrating economic and technological considerations into negotiations with China [14][15] Future Outlook - The U.S. may adopt a more nuanced approach to technology export controls, balancing the need to maintain technological superiority while also ensuring revenue generation for the government [24][25] - The long-term implications of this arrangement could lead to increased dependency of Chinese companies on U.S. technology, while also fostering a competitive environment for domestic alternatives [20][21]

Group 1 - The current US-China confrontation is likened to an unexpected encounter battle, where both sides are unprepared and the initial situation is chaotic [1] - The US, despite its intentions to contain China, is not fully prepared for the confrontation due to internal issues such as hollowed-out industries and high debt [2][4] - China has been focused on peaceful development and gradually improving its industrial chain, benefiting from its relationship with the US in the past [2][4] Group 2 - The trade war initiated by the US is just the beginning, as the global market remains resilient and dependent on Chinese goods [6] - The US's attempts to decouple from China have proven ineffective, with ongoing trade between the two nations [6] - The technology war, particularly against companies like Huawei, has inadvertently spurred China's technological independence and innovation [6][7] Group 3 - The US's financial dominance is being challenged as its frequent use of sanctions and asset seizures raises global concerns about the safety of holding wealth in US dollars [9] - The rise of alternative payment systems, such as the digital yuan and cross-border payment systems, indicates a shift towards de-dollarization [9][10] - The ongoing battles in trade, technology, and finance represent a broader restructuring of global economic rules rather than isolated conflicts [10] Group 4 - The current standoff indicates that the US's strategies have not succeeded in undermining China, which has developed strong domestic markets and financial defenses [11] - The confrontation has evolved into a protracted struggle, emphasizing the importance of internal capabilities for both nations [13]

Group 1 - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced plans to apply for permission to resume sales of the H20 GPU chip to the Chinese market, with the U.S. government expected to approve the related licenses soon [2] - The H20 chip, developed based on the older Hopper architecture, is priced between $10,000 and $12,000 and is designed to comply with U.S. chip export control requirements [2] - Despite its reduced performance compared to the H100 chip, the H20 chip remains popular in China, with major companies like ByteDance and Tencent ordering approximately 230,000 units [2] Group 2 - Reports indicate that Nvidia is developing a new AI chip based on the latest Blackwell architecture for the Chinese market, expected to be priced between $6,500 and $8,000 [3] - The market share of Nvidia in China's AI accelerator card market exceeded 85% in 2022, but it is projected that domestic chips will capture one-third of the market share by 2024 [3] - The proportion of imported chips in China's AI server market is expected to decline from approximately 63% in 2024 to about 42% in 2025, with local suppliers gaining ground due to government support [3] Group 3 - Nvidia announced the launch of a new fully compatible RTX PRO graphics card, aimed at digital twin AI applications in smart factories and logistics [4] - Recent easing of U.S.-China tech tensions has led to major chip design software companies resuming services to China, following the U.S. government's cancellation of export restrictions [4] - The U.S. and China are working to implement agreements reached during high-level economic talks, with both sides taking steps to facilitate trade [4] Group 4 - The State Administration for Market Regulation in China approved Synopsys' acquisition of Ansys with conditions that ensure fair treatment of Chinese customers and continuation of existing contracts [5]