现在，中美之间的问题已经不再是简单的加关税、制裁某些公司那么直接，而是进入了更为复杂和深层 次的对账阶段。这不仅仅是金融或贸易层面的账目，而是一场涉及战略意图、综合国力和全球动员能力 的历史级博弈。美国已经意识到，如果不尽快锁定中国，2026年以后可能就没有机会再进行这种对抗 了。这并不是危言耸听，而是美国自己设定的时间表。 到了2025年12月，中美的大账终于开始结算，三个看似毫不相关的事件将这场对账推向了高潮。首先， 12月4日，白宫发布了国家安全战略文件，明确将中国视为头号系统性竞争者，并为未来几年美国的外 交、经济、军事战略定下了方向：围绕限制中国展开。这份长达57页的文件没有废话，直接点出了美国 未来所有战略资源的配置将围绕如何遏制中国展开。第二，12月17日，特朗普发表了一个奇怪的年终演 讲，原本大家以为他会发表激烈的言辞，但结果他只是匆匆带过，讲话的内容没有任何实质性突破。熟 悉他的人都能看出来，这场演讲明显让人感觉他有些神志不清，重复着我们离胜利很近，但眼神中却透 露出我快撑不住了的无奈。 我们可以深入剖析一下美国接下来将如何出招，同时看看他们是如何计算的，或者他们的算盘是否能成 功。12月， ...

中美在科技领域的拉锯，从2018年开始就没停过脚，美国那边先动手，特朗普政府直接把华为拉进实体清单，禁美国公司供货，意图就是掐住中国高科技的 供应链。华盛顿的算盘打得响亮，以为这样就能拖慢中国脚步，让自家企业稳坐钓鱼台。 可六年过去，局面没按剧本走，中国不光没趴下，反而在半导体和电动车这些关键地方加速赶超。 美国那边，出口管制一层层加码，从芯片到光刻机，荷兰的ASML公司也被拉着不许卖给中国。拜登政府接手后，继续推"中国行动计划"，司法部查华裔科 学家，搞得学术圈人心惶惶，好些人才打包走人。 肯尼迪算了笔账，这些政策表面护着国家安全，实际让美国半导体企业丢掉大把订单，本来靠中国市场养研发，现在资金链紧巴巴，企业高管得缩减预算， 创新劲头自然弱下去。 资本主义社会，钱是动力，没市场谁还拼命投钱？这不，2024年美国半导体协会就抱怨，禁令害得行业损失数百亿，工厂开工率下滑。 智库分析说，这场战不光是技术，还牵扯全球贸易格局，美国想单方面封锁，结果盟友也不全买账，日本和欧盟企业偷偷抱怨，订单少了，库存堆山。 美国继续加关税，针对中国电动车和电池，意图护着自家产业。但中国反制也来了，12月商务部宣布制裁13家美国军工 ...

（来源：电脑报少年派） 百辆豪车突成废铁 11月28日以来，莫斯科、圣彼得堡、克拉斯诺达尔和彼尔姆等多个俄罗斯城市的保时捷车主陆续报告车辆突发性瘫痪。 故障如瘟疫般在俄罗斯蔓延。从首都莫斯科的三环主干道，到圣彼得堡的河畔停车场，再到克拉斯诺达尔的商场车库，大量保时捷车主遭遇了相同的噩 梦。有车主在披萨店取餐后回到车内，发现车辆毫无反应，仪表盘黑屏；有维修技师自己的保时捷仅启动两秒便瞬间熄火，检查后却发现所有硬件部件均 无异常。 更令人担忧的是，这种故障在高速行驶中也可能发生。莫斯科一位车主伊万在80公里/小时的车速下突然遭遇动力中断，险些引发严重交通事故。 俄罗斯最大的汽车经销商罗尔夫（Rolf）证实，仅登记在册的待修保时捷就超过300辆，其服务网点已拖走超过40辆瘫痪车辆。 故障影响范围并非仅限于保时捷，部分奔驰、奥迪和大众车型也报告了类似问题。所有受影响车辆都有一个共同点：均为2013年之后生产，并搭载了保时 捷原厂的VTS（Vehicle Tracking System）卫星安防系统。 VTS系统何以成为"电子手铐" VTS系统本是保时捷引以为傲的"防盗神器"。它通过卫星信号实现车辆实时定位，一旦系统检 ...

特朗普一上台，就把贸易战这把火烧得更旺。4月2日，他签了那个"解放日"行政令，对中国电动汽车和太阳能电池加征关税，税率直奔100%甚至更高。想 想看，美国那边企业本来就叫苦不迭，成本一涨，消费者荷包就瘪了。 可中国这边呢，稳扎稳打，继续推自己的新能源出口。结果呢，上半年光伏组件出口量就涨了25%，电池也跟着水涨船高，达23%的增速。 转眼到10月9日，中国商务部甩出第61号公告，对中重稀土和永磁体实施出口管制。这招直戳美国痛处，因为稀土是高科技和国防的命根子，F-35战机、导 弹制导，全都离不开。公告一出，美国五角大楼那边估计得连夜开会，库存撑不了几个月。 商务部还强调，这不是随便玩玩，而是针对境外组织和个人，管得严着呢。哪怕产品里中国稀土成分只占0.1%，也得上许可。说白了，这是对美国一轮轮 制裁的回击，从芯片到AI，全链条都卡着中国，美国自己也得掂量掂量。 其实，这反制来得不是没道理。早在2018年贸易战开打，美国就对500亿中国商品下手，中国对等反制大豆和汽车。2019年华为被实体清单，2022年芯片法 案砸520亿补贴本土，可上游材料还是绕不开中国。 2024年5月，美国又调高电动车关税到100%，中 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. in Busan resulted in significant agreements, with both sides showing a willingness to engage in dialogue and compromise [1][3] - Trump expressed that the meeting was a tremendous success, highlighting China's commitment to large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans, which will commence immediately [1][4] - The U.S. Senate passed a resolution to terminate the comprehensive tariff policy initiated by the Trump administration, indicating a shift towards a more rational approach in U.S.-China relations [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. has recognized the ineffectiveness of its tariff policies, which have negatively impacted its own economy, leading to a strategic retreat in the trade conflict [4][5] - The negotiation dynamics suggest a shift in power, with China gaining an upper hand as it continues to rise in strength while the U.S. faces relative decline [4][5] - The current phase of U.S.-China relations is seen as a strategic turning point, with both countries' strengths becoming increasingly comparable, and China positioned to potentially surpass the U.S. [5]

Summary of the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: 华天科技 (Hua Tian Technology) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Packaging Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: For the first nine months of 2025, total revenue reached 12.38 billion CNY, a 17.55% increase from 10.5 billion CNY in the same period last year [3][4] - **Net Profit**: Net profit for the same period was 540 million CNY, up 51.98% from 357 million CNY year-on-year [3][4] - **Gross Margin**: Gross margin slightly increased to 12.34% from 12.29% [3][4] Performance by Production Base 1. **Tianshui Base**: - Revenue: 3.26 billion CNY, up 21.99% from 2.67 billion CNY [4] - Net Profit: 200 million CNY, down 48.96% from 390 million CNY [5] - Gross Margin: Decreased to 11.86% from 13.68% [5] 2. **Xi'an Base**: - Revenue: 2.777 billion CNY, up 12.26% from 2.468 billion CNY [6] - Net Profit: 210 million CNY, up 52.4% from 140 million CNY [6] - Gross Margin: Increased to 17.81% from 16.46% [6] 3. **Nanjing Base**: - Revenue: 2.596 billion CNY, up 19.66% from 2.17 billion CNY [7] - Net Profit: 55 million CNY, down from 590 million CNY [7] 4. **Kunshan Base**: - Revenue: 1.51 billion CNY, up 10.7% from 1.367 billion CNY [8] - Net Profit: 88 million CNY, up 6.55% from 82 million CNY [8] - Gross Margin: Stable at 18% [8] 5. **Unisime Base**: - Revenue: 2.33 billion CNY, up 28% from 1.82 billion CNY [9] - Net Profit: 57 million CNY, down 28.23% from 79 million CNY [9] 6. **Jiangsu Base**: - Revenue: 290 million CNY, a significant increase from 73 million CNY last year [10] Production Capacity and Utilization - Overall capacity utilization across the five major production bases is approximately 85% [11] - Xi'an and Nanjing bases are operating at full capacity, contributing to revenue growth [11][12] Market Trends and Pricing - **Market Growth**: Notable growth in storage and automotive electronics sectors [14] - **Raw Material Prices**: Significant price increases in substrates, with a rise of 20%-30% noted [15][16] - **Pricing Mechanism**: The company has a pricing mechanism in place to pass on raw material cost increases to customers [16][17] Capital Expenditure - **2025 Capital Expenditure**: Expected to reach around 45 billion CNY, up from the initial estimate of 30-35 billion CNY due to better-than-expected market conditions [20][21] - **2026 Outlook**: Anticipated capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated at 30-40 billion CNY [22] Advanced Packaging Developments - **2.5D/3D Packaging**: A new subsidiary focused on advanced packaging has been established, with production lines completed and currently in the verification phase [24][27] - **Future Revenue Contribution**: Expected to contribute revenue, but the amount is anticipated to be modest initially [26] M&A Activity - **Acquisition of Huayi Electronics**: The acquisition is expected to enhance revenue and profit, with projected sales of approximately 1.078 billion CNY and net profit of around 54-55 million CNY for the first eight months of the year [37][41][42] Future Outlook - **Q4 2025 Expectations**: Anticipated to at least match Q3 performance, with more clarity on 2026 projections expected after customer visits in late 2025 [44][46] Additional Insights - The company is navigating challenges posed by geopolitical tensions affecting technology transfer and market access [27][28] - The focus remains on domestic markets due to restrictions on foreign orders [27][28] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the company's performance, market conditions, and future outlook.

Core Insights - The article critiques the trade war initiated by Trump, highlighting that it has worsened the U.S. trade deficit and failed to achieve its intended goals [1][5]. Trade Deficit and Economic Impact - The U.S. goods trade deficit is projected to reach $1.21 trillion in 2024, a 50% increase compared to pre-trade war levels in 2017 [1]. - The trade war has led to increased inflation, with the inflation rate rising to 3% in September, the highest since May [1]. - Tariffs have added approximately $1,500 in annual expenses for American households, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income families [1]. Employment and Manufacturing - The manufacturing sector has lost 42,000 jobs in 2024, marking the longest decline since early 2020 [1]. - The U.S. automotive industry has seen a decrease in export value by $10.8 billion compared to the previous year, impacted by competition from Chinese automakers and domestic strikes [1]. Agricultural Sector - U.S. soybean exports to China have plummeted from over $10 billion annually to just $2.5 billion in the first half of 2024, while costs for fertilizers and farming equipment have risen due to tariffs [2]. - Many farmers are relying on government subsidies to cope with the financial strain caused by the trade war [2]. Trade Agreement Analysis - The recent ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and China has not resolved core issues, as the U.S. still maintains a 47% tariff on Chinese goods [2]. - The agreement is seen as a temporary measure that does not address deeper conflicts such as intellectual property and market access [2]. Shifts in Trade Dynamics - China's reliance on the U.S. market has decreased significantly, with exports to the U.S. dropping from 20% in 2018 to below 10% [3]. - China has diversified its markets, with exports to Africa increasing by 56.4% and to Southeast Asia by 15.6% [3]. Technological Competition - The U.S. efforts to restrict technology exports to China have not succeeded, as Chinese companies have increased their self-sufficiency in chip production, raising the self-sufficiency rate from 16% in 2020 to 40% [3]. - U.S. companies like Nvidia and Intel have faced significant revenue declines in China, indicating a failure in the U.S. technology strategy [3]. Conclusion on Trade War - The article concludes that the trade war has not benefited the U.S. and has instead weakened its economic position and global influence [4][5].

Core Points - The joint statement from 14 countries, including the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, emphasizes immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and the use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's reconstruction, notably without the involvement of the US [1][2] - Ukraine's agreement to ceasefire at the current contact line indicates a deteriorating military situation for Ukraine, contrasting with its previous hardline stance [2][5] - The Russian military claims significant territorial gains and encirclement of Ukrainian forces, suggesting increasing pressure on Ukraine [3][5] Group 1: Geopolitical Dynamics - The absence of the US in the joint statement reflects a shift in alliances, with traditional allies acting independently, which may impact the East Asian situation [1][5] - Trump's administration is focused on minimizing losses in Ukraine while seeking to distance from the conflict, contrasting with European nations' desire to weaken Russia [5][6] - The divergence in threat perception between Europe and the US, with Europe viewing Russia as the primary threat and China as secondary, complicates unified strategies against China [8][9] Group 2: Military and Economic Implications - The ongoing military challenges faced by Ukraine, coupled with reduced US support, suggest a bleak outlook for Ukrainian resistance [5][9] - European nations are beginning to take actions against China, indicating a potential shift in focus from the Ukraine conflict to addressing competition with China [9][10] - The possibility of a coordinated trade war between the US and Europe against China could emerge if the Ukraine conflict reaches a resolution [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly focusing on the U.S. demand for China to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources for national security and technological advancement [1][15][39]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Strategy - Trump's assertion that "tariffs equal national security" reflects a desperate political maneuver rather than a solid strategy, indicating a loss of confidence in his administration's trade policies [3][5]. - The trade war has not yielded the expected benefits for the U.S., with rising costs for American businesses and dissatisfaction among allies, leading to a decline in Trump's domestic support [6][8]. - The focus on rare earths as a singular demand illustrates a shift from broader trade negotiations to a more desperate, point-specific strategy, revealing the diminishing options available to the U.S. [24][32]. Group 2: Importance of Rare Earths - China controls over 80% of global rare earth production, while the U.S. relies on imports for 90% of its rare earth needs, making this a critical issue for U.S. military and technological sectors [15][21]. - The U.S. has faced significant delays in developing domestic rare earth processing capabilities, with projects pushed back to 2026, underscoring the challenges in establishing alternative supply chains [15][17]. - The competition for rare earths is not merely an economic issue but a matter of national security, as these resources are essential for modern technology and military applications [15][33]. Group 3: China's Position and Strategy - China's restrictions on rare earth exports are part of a broader strategy to manage its resources sustainably and assert its position in global trade, rather than a targeted response to U.S. demands [17][19]. - The Chinese government has maintained a calm and resolute stance in negotiations, indicating a strong position in the face of U.S. pressure [19][39]. - The ongoing struggle over rare earths reflects a larger contest for defining future technological and industrial standards, with China increasingly positioning itself as a rule-maker rather than a rule-taker [35][39].

Group 1 - The Netherlands has frozen the control of Nexperia, a semiconductor giant, aiming to reclaim it, despite 70% of its production capacity being in China [1] - The action taken by the Netherlands has not effectively disrupted the production lines, leading to a backlog of chip products [1] - The complexity of the manufacturing system means that control cannot be easily asserted through ownership changes alone [1] Group 2 - The "Yuheng" chip can capture ultra-high-definition spectral images in the 400 to 1000 nanometer range, showcasing China's alternative path in semiconductor technology [3] - China's ambition in the semiconductor industry is supported by a three-pronged approach involving resources, standards, and computing power [3][5] - The tightening of rare earth export controls indicates an ongoing supply chain battle [3] Group 3 - European efforts to establish their own wafer fabs face significant challenges, including funding, manpower, and electricity costs [7] - Major companies like ASML and Bosch, despite advocating for independence, are still seeking collaboration with China [7] Group 4 - The technology war is not limited to laboratory confrontations but encompasses a broader competition involving mines, ports, factories, and codes [8] - The effectiveness of a system's resilience is becoming crucial in this context [8] Group 5 - The future of the technology war will depend on which side can adapt more flexibly to changes [10] - A combination of hardware and software is essential for success, indicating that the conflict is ongoing [10] Group 6 - The Netherlands' belief that gaining control of Nexperia would secure victory was challenged by Tsinghua's unveiling of the Yuheng chip, demonstrating a strategic counterattack [11] - The emergence of the Yuheng chip is just the beginning, with China continuing to strengthen its position amid escalating Western opposition [12]