Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The domestic macroeconomic regulation has intensified since the third quarter, with a combination of policies showing gradual effects, creating a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic recovery [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, injecting liquidity into the market through various tools, including Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance - In the interbank market, the total transaction volume reached 654.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.3% and a year-on-year increase of 17.7% [1] - The A-share market has shown strong performance, influenced by factors such as the "anti-involution" trend, new tax regulations on bond issuance, and changes in public fund fee structures [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Liquidity - The overall funding rates have declined in the third quarter, with the weighted average of overnight repo rates dropping by 13 basis points to 1.38% and 14 basis points to 1.43% for different types of repos [3] - The PBOC's net injection of funds in the open market totaled 19,348 billion yuan in the third quarter, with MLF and reverse repos contributing significantly to this liquidity [2] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market saw an issuance of 14.88 trillion yuan in the third quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.7% and a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [4] - Long-term bond yields have experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.64% and 1.9%, reflecting a steepening yield curve [4] Group 5: Interest Rate Swaps - The interest rate swap curve has shifted upward, with significant increases in long-term rates, indicating a growing market for interest rate swaps [7] - The average daily transaction volume for RMB interest rate swaps increased, with a total nominal principal amount of 12.2 trillion yuan in the third quarter [7]

【市场表现】 昨日期债延续窄幅震荡。短期看，一方面期债下跌的风险有限，当前仍处在逆周期政策周期中，资金面 持续收紧的可能性小，MLF增量续作也体现了央行对资金面的呵护，LPR与存款利率双调降，中期广谱 利率处于下行周期中；另一方面在关税压力缓释的背景下，当下央行进一步引导资金利率下行的概率也 不高，还需要观察政策后效和出口动向，目前整体或以稳为主，从期限利差的角度来看长债目前吸引力 也相对有限。短期信息空窗期，整体债市或进入震荡阶段，等待基本面指引。目前预计，短期10年期国 债利率可能在1.65%-1.7%区间波动，30年国债利率可能在1.85%-1.95%区间波动。单边策略上建议观望 为主，关注高频经济数据和资金面动态。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 国债期货收盘涨跌不一，30年期 ...

金十数据4月15日讯，国泰海通证券研究所固收团队发布报告称，现阶段降准降息预期的兑现节奏可能 偏慢，但资金利率下行确定性较强，建议从久期策略向票息策略切换，通过质押融资适度加杠杆以提升 组合的静态收益，关注长端信用债、二永债、政金债以及超长地方债等具有票息凸点特征的品种。后续 资金中枢有望逐步下台阶，存款类机构7天回购利率(DR007)可能有10个基点以上的下行空间，或向公 开市场7天期逆回购操作利率靠拢。 国泰海通证券：资金利率下行可期 建议债市策略从久期向票息切换 ...